NBA DFS Primer: Monday (1/3)

These last few weeks have been nuts. The good news is that it appears the COVID cases are dying down in the NBA, and many of the players in protocols are finally returning. It has us with the shortest injury list in quite some time, but there are still away too many guys on there!

After a small slate on Sunday, we have 10 games making up this Monday card! That has us with a thick player pool, and it should be fun to break down. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

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Schedule and Odds

• HOU at PHI (PHI -13.5) O/U: 221.5
• CHA at WAS (WAS -1.5) O/U: 227.5
• MEM at BKN (BKN -6) O/U: 226.5
• UTA at NOP (UTA -10.5) O/U: 227.5
• ORL at CHI (CHI -12) O/U: 221.5
• DET at MIL (MIL -15.5) O/U: 224.5
• DEN at DAL (DAL -2.5) O/U: 211.5
• MIA at GSW (GSW -8.5) O/U: 218.5
• ATL at POR (POR -3.5) O/U: 226.5
• MIN at LAC (LAC -6) O/U: 218.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Paul George (elbow) OUT
• Karl-Anthony Towns (COVID) OUT
• Kawhi Leonard (knee) OUT
• Damian Lillard (abdomen) OUT
• Jonas Valanciunas (illness) Questionable
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• Brandon Ingram (Achilles) Questionable
• Bam Adebayo (hand) OUT
• Kyrie Irving (COVID) OUT
• Ben Simmons (personal) OUT
• D’Angelo Russell (COVID) OUT
• Cole Anthony (ankle) Questionable
• Khris Middleton (personal) Questionable
• John Collins (COVID) OUT
• Jerami Grant (hand) OUT
• Jusuf Nurkic (COVID) Questionable
• Spencer Dinwiddie (COVID) OUT
• Jamal Murray (knee) OUT
• Michael Porter Jr (back) OUT
• Kevin Porter Jr (throwing stuff) Questionable
• Dillon Brooks (COVID) OUT
• Klay Thompson (Achilles) OUT

Core Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF – MIL): $11,800 DraftKings
Giannis is arguably the best player in the NBA right now and one of the best players in DFS. The Finals MVP is second in the NBA with 57 DraftKings points per game, dropping at least 63 DK points in three of his last four games. That makes him really tough to fade in a matchup like this, with Detroit ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency. That’s on full display when you see that Antetokounmpo is averaging 58 DK points per game in their two meetings despite playing fewer than 29 minutes a night.

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $11,400 DraftKings
Houston might be the best matchup in fantasy basketball. The Rockets currently rank third in pace and 29th in both points allowed and defensible efficiency. That’s terrifying against a beast like Embiid, with the big man scoring at least 46 DraftKings points in eight straight games. He’s also cracked 61 fantasy points in three of his last five games as well.

Bradley Beal (SG – WAS): $10,400 DraftKings
With Dinwiddie out for the Wizards, Beal has become their de facto point guard. In fact, BB has at least 55 DK points in the last three games without Dinwiddie, averaging 33 points, 4.3 rebounds, 11.3 assists, and 1.7 steals in that span. All of that makes him impossible to fade against Charlotte, with the Hornets ranked first in pace, 28th in defensive efficiency, and dead-last in points allowed.

Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $12,400 DraftKings
Jokic is the best cash game player I’ve ever seen. The big man has scored at least 41 DK points in all but one game this season, averaging nearly 60 fantasy points per game. Those are easily the best marks in the NBA, making him an easy option on every slate. The matchup with the Mavericks isn’t too shabby either, with Dallas owning a 24th OPRK against opposing centers. That’s clear with Joker averaging 23 points, 16 rebounds, and seven assists against them in their two matchups this season.

Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $8,700 DraftKings
Centers are the best cash game options because of their rebounding. That gives them a floor that many players can’t match, which obviously makes the top rebounder in the NBA an elite cash game option. His 15 boards a night has led to Gobert gobbling up at least 34 DK points in 32 of 36 games this season. That’s an unbelievable floor, and it’s led to a career-best 42.4 DraftKings points per game. He should be able to pummel the Pelicans, too, with New Orleans ranked 24th in defensive efficiency ratings.

Clint Capela (C – ATL): $8,500 DraftKings
Let’s cap off our cash game options with another elite center. Capela actually led the NBA in rebounds last year and is trying his best to catch Rudy this year. Cap has collected at least 32 DK points in eight of his previous nine games, seeing his role and rebounding increase with John Collins in COVID protocols. All of that makes him worthy in this price range but facing a 27th-ranked Portland defense makes him even more enticing.

GPP Targets

Christian Wood (C – HOU): $6,200 DraftKings
If you follow the NBA, you know why this is a GPP play. Kevin Porter Jr.and Wood got in a squabble with the coaches over the weekend, which led to both guys being benched in the second half of their most recent game. That has the DFS sites panicking, with Wood possessing his lowest price of the season. That alone makes Wood a good GPP option because this guy can be a $9,000 player when he’s rolling. If you hear that Christian is starting, get him into your lineups!

Dennis Smith Jr (PG – POR): $5,500 DraftKings
With Lillard and McCollum both expected to miss this game, DSJ should fill the starting point guard role that made him a stud just last month. If you look at Smith’s three starts this season for those guys, he’s averaging 37 DraftKings points per game across 39 minutes a night. That’s absurd from such an affordable player, and he’s going to get all the minutes and usage he can handle with Portland’s two best players out of the lineup.

Mason Plumlee (C – CHA): $5,200 DraftKings
Plumlee has been in this article a ton recently, and recent results indicate that we’re doing something right. The big man has stepped up with P.J. Washington sidelined, with Plumlee scoring at least 32 DK points in two of his last three games. The one he didn’t was a massive blowout on Sunday, and we can forgo that since none of the starters really played in the fourth quarter. The matchup might be the best part of this, though, with Washington surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Value Plays

Marcus Morris (SF/PF – LAC): $6,000 DraftKings
Morris has been in and out of the lineup all season, but he’s been the Clippers’ best player when he’s healthy. He’s essentially taken over in the absence of Kawhi and PG13, scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in six straight games. That makes the price tag shocking, particularly with Minnesota owning a 24th OPRK against opposing forwards.

Patrick Beverley (PG/SG – MIN): $5,200 DraftKings
Many people might not realize this, but Beverley is in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career. In fact, PB has at least 23 DK points in 13 of his last 14 games, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in four of his last five games. His stat-stuffing is a major reason why and that should continue with Minnesota amid a COVID breakout.

Naz Reid (C – MIN): $4,800 DraftKings
With Towns out for the Timberwolves, Reid should start at center once again here. The big man collected 23 points, 11 rebounds, and two assists in this role on Sunday and has shown that sort of ability throughout his career. He’s averaging over 1.1 DK points per minute and should easily provide value if he matches the 30 minutes we saw on Sunday. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a weak Clippers frontcourt missing their starting center.

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