NBA DFS Primer: Monday (1/10)

These last few weeks have been some of the craziest times in my DFS career. The COVID protocols became a nightmarish phrase used in my articles time after time, but it feels like we’re finally getting away from it a bit. There’s still plenty of absences, though, and we’re going to capitalize on some of those here!

This slate has the perfect amount of games! We always talk about how 6-7 games are the ideal amount for DFS, and we get seven for this Monday card. There are a lot of question marks going in, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

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Schedule and Odds

• UTA at DET (UTA -10.5) O/U: 222.5
• MIL at CHA (MIL -2) O/U: 234.5
• IND at BOS (BOS -6) O/U: 215.5
• SAS at NYK (NYK -6.5) O/U: 212.5
• PHI at HOU (PHI -9) O/U: 225.5
• BKN at POR (BKN -11) O/U: 226.5
• CLE at SAC (CLE -3.5) O/U: 218.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Ben Simmons (Personal) OUT
• Rudy Gobert (COVID) OUT
• Joe Ingles (COVID) OUT
• Jerami Grant (hand) OUT
• Kelly Olynyk (knee) OUT
• Jrue Holiday (ankle) OUT
• Brook Lopez (back) OUT
• Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) Questionable
• Caris LeVert (COVID) Questionable
• Derrick White (COVID) OUT
• Keldon Johnson (COVID) OUT
• Kemba Walker (knee) OUT
• Evan Fournierthigh) OUT
• Derrick Rose (ankle) OUT
• Tyrese Maxey (COVID) OUT
• Alperen Sengun (COVID) OUT
• LaMarcus Aldridge (foot) Questionable
• Damian Lillard (abductor) OUT
• C.J. McCollum (lung) OUT
• Norman Powell (COVID) OUT
• Larry Nance Jr (COVID) OUT
• Collin Sexton (knee) OUT
• Ricky Rubio (knee) OUT
• Richaun Holmes (COVID) OUT

Core Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL): $12,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic and this guy are simply the best players in fantasy. The floor is what’s most incredible, with Giannis scoring at least 40 DraftKings points in all but a handful of games since the beginning of last season. He’s actually scored at least 53 fantasy points in five straight fixtures coming into this matchup, which should be easy to duplicate here against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Giannis is averaging an absurd 70 DK points per game in his two matchups with Charlotte this season.

Dejounte Murray (PG – SAS): $9,700 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Murray is another guy with a magical floor. The breakout guard has scored at least 34 DK points in 29 of 33 games this season en route to a ridiculous 48-point average. That makes him really attractive considering the matchup, with the Knicks ranked 20th in defensive efficiency. We love all of that, with Dejounte averaging 56 DK points per game across his last six outings.

Jarrett Allen (C – CLE): $7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Allen could seize his first All-Star appearance, becoming a double-double machine for the Cavaliers this season. In fact, The Fro has at least 32 DraftKings points in 24 of 32 games this year, generating a 43-point average in those outings. That’s a tremendous total from an $8K player, and we believe he’s a guarantee for a double-double in a matchup like this. We say that because Sacramento sits 28th in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Cash Game Considerations

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $11,000 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Embiid is playing at an MVP level right now. The big man has scored at least 46 DK points in 18 of his last 19 games, dropping at least 58 fantasy points in five of his last seven outings. That makes him worth it at any salary, especially since he faces a Houston team that ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency and points allowed.

James Harden (PG/SG – BKN): $10,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Many people are concerned about Harden with KD and Kyrie stealing so many touches, but there are not many better bets out there for 40 fantasy points than this guy. The Beard has scored at least 34 DK points in every game this season while providing a 58-point average over his last seven outings. That looks even better in a matchup like this, with Portland owning a 29th OPRK against opposing guards.

Khris Middleton (SF/PF – MIL): $8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
With Jrue Holiday and George Hill both out for Milwaukee, Middleton has played a lot of point guard. He has a 32 percent usage rate in these circumstances, averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. That was on full display when he tallied 27 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in Milwaukee’s most recent game, which is fantastic since he faces a 29th-ranked Hornets defense here. In their two matchups this year, Middleton has stung the Hornets to the tune of 46 fantasy points per game.

GPP Targets

Kyrie Irving (PG – BKN): $8,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Irving is one of the best playmakers in the NBA, and he’s always going to be an option when Brooklyn is on the road. That’s kept his price pretty affordable, with Irving usually closer to $10K on both sites. The reason we think he can provide that sort of value here is this matchup, with the Trail Blazers sitting 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency.

Hassan Whiteside (C – UTA): $5,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Whiteside has been one of the best per-minute producers throughout his career. The big man is averaging about 20 DK points per game across 15 minutes a night this season. That means 30-40 DK points could be easy with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, with Hassan expected to get another start at center. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 22nd-ranked Detroit defense, either.

Immanuel Quickley (PG/SG – NYK): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
With Rose and Walker both nicked up, Quickley has been taking on an expanded role for the Knicks. He’s actually received a start in the last two games, scoring at least 25 DK points in both of those. More importantly, he played 37 minutes in the most recent outing. If we get that sort of role from someone this talented, IQ should be $2,000 more. Not to mention, San Antonio sits fourth in pace and 23rd in points allowed.

Value Plays

Robert Covington (PF – POR): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
RoCo got off to a horrendous start this season, but he’s starting to turn it around. The COVID breakout in Portland is a primary reason why, with Larry Nance and Norman Powell joining Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum on the sidelines. That has forced Covington back into the starting lineup, scoring 64 combined DK points across 69 minutes over the last two games. That workload should continue here to oppose Harden, making RoCo tough to avoid at this dirt-cheap price.

Keifer Sykes (PG/SG – IND): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
If LeVert and Brogdon remain out for the Pacers, Sykes should be a lock in every lineup. That has led to Keifer playing at least 31 minutes in four straight fixtures, generating a 29-point average in those outings. You can’t ask for any more from such an affordable player, and it’s not like Boston has the scariest defense in the NBA.

Lonnie Walker (SG/SF – SAS): $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
The Spurs are one of many teams dealing with a COVID breakout, missing Keldon Johnson and Derrick White. Those two guys being out forced Lonnie into a rare start on Sunday, compiling 40 DraftKings points across 30 minutes of action. That’s the sort of upside we’ve been waiting to see, and it makes Walker tough to fade in this $4K price range.

Advantageous Pricing

• James Harden (PG/SG – BKN): $10,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
• Kyrie Irving (PG – BKN): $8,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
• Keifer Sykes (PG/SG – IND): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
• Cade Cunningham (PG – DET): $7,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
• Anfernee Simons (PG/SG – POR): $6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
• Lance Stephenson (PG/SF – IND): $5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

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