This Sunday has the potential to be the single best day of football in quite a while. Many would say the two best teams in both the NFC and AFC are playing on Sunday in their respective divisional rounds. We can debate whether or not that’s a good thing later, but in the meantime, let’s enjoy some great football. Here are my DFS leans!
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Schedule and Odds
- LAR @ TB (TB -2.5) O/U: 48
- BUF @ KC (KC -2) O/U: 54
Injury Report
- BUF
- N/A
- KC
- Rashad Fenton (back) QUESTIONABLE
- Darrel Williams (toe) QUESTIONABLE
- LAR
- OT Andrew Whitworth (knee) OUT
- S Taylor Rapp (concussion) OUT
- RB Buddy Howell (hamstring) DOUBTFUL
- TB
- RB Ronald Jones II (ankle) OUT
- WR Breshad Perriman (hip/abdomen) OUT
- WR Cyril Grayson Jr. (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
- C Ryan Jensen (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
- CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
- OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (NIR) QUESTIONABLE
- OT Tristan Wirfs (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Core Plays
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) $8,500
Like last weekend, I’m reminding you there are few prices I will not pay to have Patrick Mahomes lead my DFS team. Now he’s not even the priciest quarterback? Come on. I get it, the rushing ceiling isn’t there, but the Chiefs are the first dominant challenge the Bills defense will face without star cornerback Tre’Davious White. Even if White were active… this is Patrick Mahomes, whose second-to-last playoff game ended in bitter defeat. He’s out for blood this year.
Tyler Higbee (TE – WR) – $5,400
What do Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee all have in common? They played 100% of offensive snaps in last weekend’s win over the Cardinals. Additionally, when the Rams beat the Bucs in Week 3, Higbee notched five catches for 40 yards and a touchdown. With veteran LT Andrew Whitworth ruled out, Stafford may need to get the ball out quicker than usual. Assuming Cooper Kupp demands defensive attention, this could mean checking down to old reliable Tyler Higbee. At a price point only $500 more than Josiah Deguara, this is a bargain, and I’m taking it everywhere.
Cash Game Considerations
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF) – $7,200
The Bills have gone through a running renaissance as the season went on, culminating in last weekend’s win over New England. Fullback Reggie Gilliam played his highest snap total in nine weeks. Granted, it’s easier to line up in obvious run formations when you’re winning a game convincingly, but this is a refreshing reminder the Bills know they can run the ball successfully. Devin Singletary has emerged as their RB1.
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) – $7,400
Stafford has a pretty high floor for being the third-cheapest QB option this weekend. The gamescript is writing itself. The Bucs run defense is solid, their pass defense is middle-of-the-road. There’s no shortage of weapons in Los Angeles and no reason Matt Stafford’s incredibly consistent season should drop off.
GPP Targets
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) – $8,800
If you’re looking for a quarterback who could go gangbusters with fantasy points and lead your DFS lineup to glory, look no further than Josh Allen. He’s the only truly mobile quarterback playing Sunday, and to say that might even be an understatement. Allen is capable of launching missiles with his arm and is able to shoulder a significant workload by way of running the ball, too.
Tyreek Hill (WR – KC) – $8,200
In each of the last three weeks, the Bills defense has allowed a passing play of more than 40 yards. I wouldn’t rather bet on any other duo in the NFL to snag a big play than Mahomes and Hill. Hill’s ceiling is sky-high, and at a reasonable price ($100 fewer than Mike Evans), I’m taking a chance on the upside.
Value Plays
Mecole Hardman (WR – KC) – $5,300
The Bills defense flexed their dominance against New England. However, this weekend, they’re up against a more formidable opponent in the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes will get his, regardless of the person catching the ball. If Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are blanketed, it’s next man up. I’m taking Hardman at this price because, if nothing else, he’s explosive. He only needs a few receptions to provide value, which means I will grow gray hair, imagining what will happen if his target share increases. Yes, I was a Mecole Hardman truther in the preseason. No, I am not taking questions at this time.
Tyler Johnson (WR – TB) – $5,000
Even though he totaled only three targets last weekend against the Eagles, Johnson played the second-most snaps of any Tampa Bay receiver. This Sunday, Breshad Perriman, who totaled the third-most snaps, will be out. In what’s sure to be a hard-fought game with plenty of Jalen Ramsey attention for Mike Evans, it’s not hard to see Brady targeting the next man up.
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TJ Horgan is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @tjhorgantv.