While the Wild Card weekend results weren’t too surprising, there certainly were some surprises from a DFS perspective, with significant production coming from unexpected players. I would expect fewer surprise player performances this weekend in the Divisional Round, especially on Saturday’s slate, where the key players are pretty well established.
The biggest thing I noticed when starting to build lineups on DraftKings for Saturday’s two-game slate is there are going to be a lot of 2v2 pivots that you can make. And while those pivots seem subtle, they will likely be the difference between winning and losing in Cash games. As for GPPs, this is a good slate to avoid spending all of the salary cap in order to still have a lineup of strong plays but get away from the combinations that will be popular.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for the DraftKings Saturday slate.
Core Plays
Davante Adams (WR – GB): $8,500 vs. SF
Adams is the most expensive player on the slate, but he is still the first player I’m clicking on for most of my lineups. He exceeded 100 receiving yards in five of the last six full games he played to end the season and he lit up the 49ers early in the season with 12 receptions for 132 yards and a score.
While the 49ers defense stepped up last week to shut down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, the most vulnerable part of their defense is their secondary which allowed 12.4 receptions (19th) for 171 yards (26th), and 1.2 touchdowns (24th) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks of the regular season.
Eli Mitchell (RB – SF): $5,800 vs. GB
If the 49ers are going to get out of Lambeau Field on Saturday with a win, they must stick to the run and be successful. Mitchell will get another heavy workload as the back has tallied at least 21 carries in six straight games. He gets opportunities near the goal line and could see an uptick in his passing game involvement in this matchup.
The Packers have allowed 5.6 receptions (26th) per game to running backs over the last five games. Their defense has also been struggling to stop the run recently allowing 5.06 YPC (28th) to running backs over the last five games. Mitchell represents the best combination of price, touch volume, and matchup at running back on Saturday.
Cash Game Targets
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): $7,100 vs. SF
In all honesty, I’m okay with considering any quarterback not named Jimmy Garoppolo in your Cash game lineup on Saturday, if it helps you land on an optimal build you feel comfortable with. That said, I’d prefer to pay up for Rodgers who has the highest floor at the position and just as much upside as any of the other options.
The Packers are going to need to pass the ball the be successful against the 49ers defense which has been stout against the run all season, ranking 2nd DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) according to FootballOutsiders while allowing just 3.63 YPC (2nd) to running backs. Meanwhile, they are only 16th DVOA against the pass. Rodgers will come out firing this week.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): $7,500 vs. CIN
Henry hasn’t played since Week 8 but is expected to return this week to face the Bengals. There are some question marks around how many snaps and touches Henry will get and how effective he will be in his first game back, but the other options at running back all carry their own risk with difficult matchups.
Meanwhile, the Titans are a home favorite against a Bengals run defense that will be without a key player on the defensive line and have been vulnerable to the run allowing 4.9 YPC (26th) to running backs over the last five games of the regular season. They also allowed 83 rushing yards on 13 carries (6.38 YPC) to Josh Jacobs last week.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN): $7,100 vs. TEN
I want my Bengals exposure this week in their passing game as I expect Joe Mixon and the running game to struggle against a very strong Titans run defense. Chase proved last week with 12 targets resulting in nine catches for 116 yards, that he will be Joe Burrow‘s go-to guy when everything is on the line.
The Titans secondary has been torched most of the season by wide receivers who have tallied 14.6 receptions (31st) for 189 yards (31st) and 1.2 touchdowns (27th) per game. Chase should be busy on Saturday, especially if the Bengals are playing catchup.
Other notables: Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): $7,600 vs. GB, AJ Dillon (RB – GB): $5,100 vs. SF, Julio Jones (WR – TEN): $4,600 vs. CIN
GPP Targets
Aaron Jones (RB – GB): $6,800 vs. SF
While the more likely scenario for the Packers against the 49ers is that Rodgers and the passing game find success, don’t completely ignore the Packers 1-2 punch in the running game while playing at home in the cold weather.
There is nothing the Packers would like more than to give the 49ers a dose of their own medicine from playoffs past and just ram the ball down their throat on the ground. Jones has the breakaway speed to take a long one the distance and will be a part of the passing game including in the red zone. A multiple touchdown day is in the realm of possibilities for Jones.
George Kittle (TE – SF): $5,300 vs. GB
Kittle has become the forgotten man in the 49ers offense recently as the elite tight end has been held under 30 yards in four straight games without a score during that stretch. However, Kittle has had some big days against the Packers in the past including seven catches for 92 yards earlier this season.
If the 49ers fall behind and need to abandon the running game or if Garopollo’s injuries and the weather force him to look for more short throws over the middle, then Kittle will be the beneficiary. The last time the Packers faced an elite tight end, Mark Andrews was rolling them with 10 catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Just sayin’.
Other notables: Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): $5,800 vs. CIN, AJ Brown (WR – TEN): $6,200 vs. CIN, Tee Higgins (WR – CIN): $5,700 vs. TEN
Value Plays
Jauan Jennings (WR – SF): $3,400 vs. GB
Toggling between the value plays is one of those 2v2 pivots I was talking about in the intro that seem small but could be the difference this week. Jennings has carved out a role in the last two games as a trusted third down and red zone option for Garopollo.
Jennings has 12 targets over the last two games which he has turned into nine receptions for 123 yards and two scores. He should get another 5-7 targets this week giving him good volume for a player at this price.
Randall Cobb (WR – GB): $3,100 vs. SF
The veteran and close friend of Rodgers is expected to return to the field this week. Cobb hasn’t played since Week 12, but his reconnection with Rodgers shouldn’t be an issue given their familiarity with each other.
I like Cobb even more if Marquez Valdes-Scantling is unable to return this week which would push Allen Lazard to the outside and free up more snaps for Cobb. If he is on the field more than that is just more chances for Rodgers to find his buddy.
Other notables: Allen Lazard (WR – GB): $4,300 vs. SF, Cj Uzomah (TE – CIN): 3,400 vs. TEN, Anthony Firkser (TE – TEN): $3,100 vs. CIN
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