Championship weekend is upon us. It is a tall task to match the intensity and quite frankly, all of the amazing football we witnessed last weekend. The four teams left offer an interesting group of players for DFS purposes. It’s a more narrow field but the games should be good and there are points to be scored.
This article is an overview for cash games, where the goal is to perform better than half the field and centered around the DK pricing and scoring.
Let’s get into it.
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CASH GAME OPTIONS
Patrick Mahomes (QB - KC) - $7400
There were times in the middle of the season where Patrick Mahomes seemed, well, off. Scampering about for no discernable reason. Making off-balance or sidearm throws when unnecessary. While these facets of his game are part of what makes him so darn special, it seemed forced and led to a stretch of games that were not bad, but bad in what we have all come to expect from Mahomes. From weeks seven through 14, there were five games in which he scored less than 20 DK points, four of which were under 15 points.
That is all a distant memory. In his last three games, he has scored over his 25.1 per-game average, including 40-plus in each of the last two games. In fact, he has thrown for two or more touchdown passes in every game since week 13. He is averaging 391 passing yards and four touchdown passes in the playoffs this season. In his two games against the Bengals, he is averaging 309 passing yards and 3.0 touchdowns to only .5 interceptions on a per-game basis.
Hopefully, you're mopping up what I'm spilling here. For cash game lineups, the chalk is good. The Bengals are a scrappy team and Joe Burrow is aggressive at the helm. They will score points, it will be competitive, meaning Mahomes will have to respond. Which he will. Mahomes represents both a reliable high floor and a high ceiling as we have not even mentioned his scramble/rushing ability. Fire him up as a sure-fire cash game quarterback in a game that could easily hit the over.
Joe Burrow (QB - CIN) - $6600
The easy pivot is in the same game. Second-year pro Joe Burrow is taking his Bengals to Kansas City to battle for the championship. Burrow has been on an absolute tear recently. Over his last four games, he is averaging 390.75 passing yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns, and .25 interceptions on a per-game basis. For those who may have forgotten, one of those games was against these same Chiefs, which he torched for 446 yards and four touchdowns.
Burrow did not light the scoreboard up in last week's divisional tilt against the Titans, but he managed to lead his team to a win despite taking nine sacks for a loss of 68 yards. He does NOT know how to quit and that is an intangible trait that keeps the flame of his killer instinct lit.
The Chiefs' defense has been a bit like Jekyll and Hyde lately and remains beatable downfield. Meanwhile, Burrow finished the regular season leading all quarterbacks in completion percentage and adjusted yards gained per pass attempt. In short, he can thread the needle aggressively when required.
This game has back-and-forth potential and Burrow comes in with a solid floor, high ceiling potential, and at an $800 discount from Mahomes.
Joe Mixon (RB - CIN) - $6800
As the highest implied point total of this two-game slate, pieces of both teams should be heavily utilized throughout cash and GPP contests. Enter Joe Mixon from stage right. He saunters into this game carrying a healthy 18.3 carry and three targets per-game average into a middle-of-the-road defensive matchup. In the last two games, Mixon has 31 rush attempts and 12 targets. For those who math at home, that's 21.5 opportunities on a per-game basis. Volume is king.
The Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 130.5 rushing yards per contest during the regular season. Mixon finished the regular season with 16 total touchdowns.
Due to the consistent, and recently rising target share, Mixon remains less affected by game script, reducing overall risk at cost. He will be involved early and often and remains a threat to score when in the red zone.
Cooper Kupp (WR - LAR) - $8800
Let's reimagine the great film The Replacements as a DFS film. Let's further imagine the role of head coach Jimmy McGinty being played by TeamRiseOrFall DFS analyst Chris Robin and the role of Shane Falco being played by everyone submitting lineups. Anytime someone questions putting Cooper Kupp in their lineups based on cost or matchup, Chris would use the coach's famous line. "Winners always want Kupp in their lineups...when the slate is on the line."
There is not a lot of analysis that needs to be done here. Kupp has been an unstoppable force that has yet to meet an immovable object. Take that, irresistible force paradox nerds.
Put him in your lineups.
Deebo Samuel (WR - SF) - $7200
Zero. That is the number of times Deebo Samuel has failed to hit double-digit DK points during the course of the season. His 21.5 PPG average is second among wide receivers on this slate to only Kupp, but he is $1600 cheaper.
The versatile hybrid role that Samuel has excelled with has worked well against the Rams this season. In two games, he has 192 receiving yards, 81 rushing yards, and three total touchdowns to the tune of 29.63 DK points on average.
The Rams defense excels upfront but struggles with adequate corner coverage. All three of the top receiving options for the 49ers have big yards after the catch ability. Samuel finished the regular season leading all receivers in the YAC category.
For the salary discount, safe floor production, and high upside, Deebo is a fantastic cash game option.
Travis Kelce (TE - KC) - $6500
Let's keep this simple. Travis Kelce did not need that touchdown last week to cement his dominance at the volatile tight end position. But, it sure does help. Especially for DFS players who relied on him heavily throughout the season with mixed results. Oh, and with Chiefs fans, for sure. The big man came on strong with 96 yards and THE most important touchdown of a game that featured plenty of them last week.
Kelce has had at least one touchdown in five straight games. The Bengals allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position during the season. The ingredients for the recipe are all there and Mahomes will be doing some cooking. Only two tight ends on this slate are averaging double-digit fantasy points per game, and Kelce easily leads the pack.
For folks that are paying up in cash games, Kelce remains the best ticket to punch.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
