The fantasy baseball ranking season is in full swing. For me, that typically starts with searching advanced stats leaderboards. Advanced statistics are often more predictive than traditional box score statistics. Thus, they’re an excellent jumping-off point. This series will dive into a variety of my favorite advanced metrics. However, I must caution that no statistic in isolation is the secret sauce for unearthing a hidden gem or burgeoning stud. Instead, they are a piece of the puzzle and best viewed through that lens, using other statistics in conjunction with them to formulate a well-rounded opinion of the fantasy value of players.
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Ground Ball Percentage
Ground ball percentage measures the rate of ground balls divided by all balls put in play. Unfortunately, FanGraphs doesn’t provide an average ground ball rate. Still, we can add context by scanning the leaderboard. For example, among 38 qualified starting pitchers in 2021, 56.6% was the highest mark, 33.2% was the lowest mark and 43.1% was the median rate.
Ground ball percentage is the first batted-ball stat I’m analyzing in the advanced stat leaderboard series. Unlike the plate discipline stats I’ve examined, ground ball rate doesn’t have a ton of standalone utility. So instead, I look at ground ball percentage in the context of a starting pitcher’s home ballpark factors. Expanding upon that idea, I’m wary of pitchers with low ground ball rates that play in homer-friendly ballparks, as they have an enhanced risk of serving up dingers. As a result, it’s a statistic I consider when ranking starting pitchers before the season.
However, it has added importance for daily fantasy and streamer research during the season. For example, a pitcher with a low ground ball rate is a risky streamer or daily fantasy selection at a homer-happy venue like Great American Ball Park (GABP). However, they’re an acceptable option at a ballpark like Citi Field that significantly depresses homers. Still, all things being equal, ground ball rate is a nice tiebreaker statistic for starting pitchers, regardless of their home park factors.
2021 Qualified Starters GB% Leaders
Luis Castillo's (SP - CIN) elite ground ball rate has helped him navigate the pitfalls of his launching pad home park, GABP. A half-dozen other qualified starters joined him in the over-50% ground ball rate class, including Lance McCullers Jr. (SP - HOU), Sandy Alcantara (SP - MIA), Max Fried (SP - ATL), Kyle Gibson (SP - PHI), German Marquez (SP - COL) and Marcus Stroman (SP - CHC). Of the seven qualified pitchers with a ground ball rate over 50% last year, six had a 48.6 GB% or higher from 2018-2020. Alcantara was the outlier, owning a 45.6 GB% during that time frame. However, Miami's righty had a 49.1 GB% in 2020. So, I'm buying his ability to induce worm burners at a high rate from now on.
Five pitchers in the table had strikeout rates north of 25% to go along with their high ground ball rate, headlined by Corbin Burnes (SP - MIL) (35.6 K%), then Zack Wheeler (SP - PHI) (29.1 K%), Charlie Morton (SP - ATL) (28.6 K%), Lance McCullers Jr. (27.0 K%) and Walker Buehler (SP - LAD) (26.0 K%). I adore pitchers that punch out batters in bunches and avoid fly balls. As a result, Burnes is the SP1 in my rankings -- excluding unicorn two-way stud Shohei Ohtani (SP/OF - LAA). Further, Buehler, Wheeler and Morton are my SP5, SP6 and SP22, respectively. Unfortunately, a late-season forearm injury is scaring me away from McCullers.
Noteworthy Non-Qualified Starting Pitchers in 2021
Framber Valdez (SP - HOU) is the king of keeping the ball on the ground. In 40 starts and 234.2 innings pitched since 2019, he has had a 67.7 GB%. He has also struck out 23.1% of the batters he's faced. The southpaw is my second-favorite starter in this table, checking in comfortably as a fantasy SP2.
However, Logan Webb (SP - SF) is my favorite pitcher above. Last year Webb broke out, pitching like a front-line starter, including during the postseason. According to FanGraphs, he had a pair of pitches with a 65-plus GB%, inducing a 66.7 GB% and a 68.5 GB% on his changeup and sinker. Webb also had a 26.5 K% in his starts with the plate discipline numbers to support it. I'm all aboard the Webb hype train, ranking him as my SP14 this season.
Finally, I dig Ranger Suarez (SP - PHI), too. Remarkably, Suarez seamlessly transitioned from closer to top-notch starter during the 2021 campaign. Yes, Suarez's 1.51 ERA in 12 starts totaling 65.2 innings overstate how dominant he was. However, his 3.39 xFIP, 3.68 SIERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.3 BB% and 25.0 K% are all rock-solid marks. In addition, his high ground ball rate bodes well for keeping his home run rate in check at Citizens Bank Park. The 26-year-old is inside my top-50 starting pitchers for the 2022 campaign.
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CStr%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers CSW%
- Advanced Stats Leaderboard: Starting Pitchers O-Swing%
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.