Week 17 NFL DFS Digest (2021 Fantasy Football)

This is the largest main slate of the year to date, featuring 14 games. Over the last few weeks, I’ve whittled the player pool down, enjoying better results in the process. So, I’m sticking with the narrowed player focus for Week 17. Additionally, on the larger slate, a few players are featured in the tables below that I won’t discuss in the team write-ups. However, their inclusion in the tables is an endorsement for considering them in this week’s DFS contests.

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Week 17 Matchups

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Spread: NE -16.0 Points

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

Jaguars Analysis: Dare Ogunbowale is only in consideration on DraftKings, where he can rack up points on dump-off passes. According to Pro Football Focus, Ogunbowale's 30 routes were the fifth-most among running backs last week. In addition, the Patriots surrender the ninth-most receptions (87) and fourth-most receiving yards (772) to running backs.

Patriots Analysis: The Patriots will probably destroy the Jaguars. Unfortunately, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson share early-down work, Brandon Bolden is the pass-catching back, and the ball is spread around in an unexciting passing attack. As a result, I suggest wholly fading the Patriots.

Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: KC -5.0 Points

Over/Under: 51.0 Points

Chiefs Analysis: This is one of only two games on the main slate with an over/under of 50 points or more. So, it's understandably one of the most attractive games to attack in DFS this week. In the passing game, Kansas City deploys a highly-consolidated offense, force-feeding Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hill is fifth in target share (26.3%) and fourth in Intended Air Yards (1,622). Meanwhile, Kelce has had a 21.9% target share. He blew up before missing last week's game on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and the Bengals were trounced by Mark Andrews in their blowout win.

Understandably, our lineup optimizer likes Patrick Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. Mahomes is projected as the QB2 for Week 16 at DraftKings and FanDuel, Kelce is projected as the TE2 at both, and Hill is projected as the WR3 at both with a WR6 value score at FanDuel.

Darel Williams is the other intriguing piece of the offense as a possible bell-cow back. Unfortunately, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is banged up and didn't practice on Thursday.

Last week, Williams converted 11 rush attempts and three receptions into 85 scoreless yards. Further, in five starts from Week 6 through Week 10, Williams touched the ball at least 19 times in four games, hauling in three or more receptions in each start and besting 75 scrimmage yards four times with a low of 50 scrimmage yards. So, predictably, he's popping in our optimizer, projecting as the RB9 with the RB3 value score at DraftKings and the RB11 with the RB4 value score at FanDuel.

Bengals Analysis: The Bengals smashed the Ravens last week. Wisely, they cut Joe Burrow loose, passing at an eye-popping 70% clip, per Sharp Football Stats. So, if they're anticipating a shootout against the Chiefs, maybe they'll let him rip it again this week. The second-year quarterback is a tantalizing high-upside option in GPPs, coming off a 525-yard performance with four touchdown passes. Burrow has had four games with 300-plus passing yards and multiple touchdown tosses.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a one-two punch that's arguably the best in the NFL. Last week, using the duo paid off for gamers in double-stacks with Burrow. Chase and Higgins have shined in many categories, and, according to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers with at least 50 targets this year, the former has been 11th in yards per route run (2.19 Y/RR) the latter has been ninth with 2.35 Y/RR. Chase is the WR8 at both sites in our optimizer, and Higgins is the WR7 at both providers with the WR8 value score at DraftKings and WR2 value score at FanDuel.

After an eye-catching development last week, I also love Joe Mixon in any type of game script. In Week 16, Mixon was fourth among running backs in routes (31), usurping pass-catching duties from Samaje Perine. Now, he's no longer a game-script risk if the change sticks. Moreover, if Cinci's explosive offense races out to a lead, Mixon could pile up rush attempts. So, he's a workhorse back that we project as the RB3 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the RB10 value score at the former.

Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team

Spread: PHI -3.5 Points

Over/Under: 45.0 Points

Eagles Analysis: Miles Sanders is injured and out this week. However, Jordan Howard's status is to be determined.

If Howard suits up, I'm only lukewarm on Boston Scott as a punt. However, Scott is my favorite punt running back if Howard is out. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by six points and leading by six points (which I'll refer to as a neutral score or game script from now on), the Eagles run at the second-highest rate (50%). Thus, even if Howard plays, Scott is a defensible punt. Yet, if Howard is out, Scott is a steal.

Football Team Analysis: I can forgive the Football Team for laying an egg with their third-string quarterback in Week 15. However, I can't ignore last week's comically lousy showing. This is a mess.

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets

Spread: TB -13.0 Points

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Buccaneers Analysis: The macro overview is simple. The Buccaneers have an implied total of 29.25 points. Thus, they should be a source of fantasy-point scoring, making them an offense worthy of investing in. In addition, they're huge favorites, laying the groundwork to do work on the ground for Ronald Jones II. Jones ran the ball 20 times last week for 65 yards and a touchdown, adding two receptions for 16 yards. If he has a similar workload this week, he'll feast. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets allow the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs by a wide margin. As a result, we project Jones as the RB6 with the RB4 value score at DraftKings and the RB5 with the RB2 value score at FanDuel.

Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown are the top dogs in the passing attack, presuming Mike Evans misses another game with COVID-19 or his hamstring injury. However, after Evans was spotted running routes on Thursday, the former seems less likely.

Brown was a target hot last week to an insane degree. He had a 50% target share, receiving 15 looks on Tom Brady's 30 passes, hauling in 10 for 101 yards. Brown is grossly underpriced on DraftKings, projecting s the WR6 at both sites with the WR2 value score at DraftKings. Gronk is a weekly threat to reach pay dirt multiple times, and he is projected as the TE4 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with a matching value score at the latter.

Breshad Perriman is back from the reserve/COVID-19 list. He's only an option in GPPs. In addition, Perriman is only a boom-or-bust option if Evans is out. Finally, Cameron Brate is the classic touchdown-or-bust, low-ceiling punt at tight end.

Jets Analysis: Hey, look at this! I include a Jet as a usable daily fantasy option. However, Braxton Berrios' merit for usage is contingent upon Jamison Crowder being out again. Crowder is probably trending toward another absence after missing practice again on Thursday.

Am I crazy about Berrios even in the best-case scenario? Unfortunately, no. However, he's on my radar as a bring-back from Tampa Bay's top options on DraftKings, where Berrios is the only sub-$4,000 receiver in the mix for me.

Game: Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans

Spread: TEN -3.5 Points

Over/Under: 39.5 Points

Dolphins Analysis: The game's over/under is vomit-inducing -- yet, it's not the lowest on the slate. Frankly, I agree with the low total, making this a probable defensive struggle, vaulting the Dolphins DST into the mix. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Dolphins are 10th in turnovers forced (23) and first in sacks (45). Predictably, the optimizer likes them, projecting them as for the DST value score at both daily fantasy outlets.

Titans Analysis: First, if this is a likely defensive standoff, it stands to reason the favored defense is worth a look. And, I think that's true. Tennessee isn't elite. Still, they're tied for 13th in turnovers forced (20) and tied for 10th in sacks (37). Additionally, they get a lift from being favored at home against a team that's dreadful protecting the quarterback. According to Pro Football Focus, the Dolphins are the worst pass-blocking team in the NFL this season.

However, it's not all about the defense in a likely ugly slugfest. A.J. Brown returned last week and played like an alpha wideout. The third-year receiver had a silly 55.2% target share in Week 16, reeling in 11 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown. He's the WR5 in our projections at both sites, with the WR11 value score at DraftKings and the WR4 value score at FanDuel.

Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: IND -6.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Raiders Analysis: Obviously, Foster Moreau is only an option this week if Darren Waller remains out. Still, after flopping as the chalk a few weeks ago, Moreau has quietly stepped up in the shadows. Since Week 15, among tight ends, Moreau is ninth in routes (67), sixth in receiving yards (132), and fourth in receptions (11). The matchup is sweet, too. The Colts allow the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends. I don't advocate going overboard using Moreau, but he's worth mixing in at his palatable salary.

Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor is an unstoppable force. He is projected as the RB1 at both daily fantasy sites, with the RB2 value score at DraftKings and the RB1 value score at FanDuel. I don't need to beat you over the head with Taylor's otherworldly stats. He's the top running back, and there's enough value at both sites to support using Taylor in all game types.

The Colts make sense as a stacking partner with Taylor or a standalone selection. They're cheap, favored at home, and facing a pathetic offense. Indy is second in turnovers forced (31), and the Raiders have scored more than 17 points only one time in eight games since their Week 8 bye. I don't see a reason to overthink this, and they'll be the defense on the highest percentage of my teams by a wide margin. We project the Colts as the DST4 value at DraftKings and the DST3 value score at FanDuel.

After exiting last week's contest with an injury, Jack Doyle hasn't practiced this week.

As a result, Mo Alie-Cox is a tasty punt if Doyle is out. Last week, the gigantic tight end ran a season-high 23 routes, playing a season-high 33 passing snaps. He caught both of his targets for 42 yards.

Game: New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Spread: CHI -6.0 Points

Over/Under: 37.0 Points

Giants Analysis: My goodness, the Giants have an implied total of 15.5 points. Their quarterback situation is a puke-in-your-mouth level of gross. So, you should gleefully fade them.

Bears Analysis: According to our NFL snap count leaders, David Montgomery has had offensive snap shares of 78%, 70%, 84%, 70%, 84%, 95%, and 85% in his last seven games. In every sense of the description, Montgomery is a workhorse, reaching at least 74 scrimmage yards and three receptions in five-straight games. The matchup is ideal, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Giants are 27th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Moreover, Big Blue allows the eighth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs. Finally, the Bears are 6.0-point favorites, providing Montgomery a probable good game script to amass a lot of rush attempts in this good matchup. As a result, we project him as the RB5 with a matching value score at DraftKings and the RB6 with the RB3 value score at FanDuel.

Cole Kmet is allergic to the end zone, having failed to score a touchdown this year. Regardless, he's checking the other boxes. The second-year tight end has had three or more receptions in five-straight games and nine of his last 10 games. And since Week 6, Kmet is sixth among tight ends in routes (320). Therefore, he's a decent play as a punt at DraftKings, where he's netted our TE5 value score.

Game: Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills

Spread: BUF -14.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are another team with an ugly implied total at only 14.75 points. It's an understandably low total since Atlanta's offense is mediocre or worse and facing the second-ranked defense in DVOA. So, I'm fading them.

Bills Analysis: First, let's take an overarching look at Buffalo's offense. In neutral game scripts, they pass at the highest rate. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 29th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, this is a smash spot for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, and Dawson Knox is another high-end option at his position. Supporting the smash-spot assertion, Allen is our QB1 with the QB3 value score at DraftKings and QB1 value score at FanDuel, Diggs is the WR4 with the WR10 value score at FanDuel, and Knox is the TE6 with the TE4 value score at DraftKings and TE2 value score at FanDuel.

Gabriel Davis is another piece of the passing attack I love, benefiting from the NFL's revised COVID-19 protocols. If all of Buffalo's receivers are active this week, Davis is a GPP-only option, thanks to his touchdown and big-play potential. According to our red zone stats, Davis is tied for 16th among receivers with 14 targets inside the 20-yard line. Additionally, among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 45 times, Davis' average depth of target (12.8 yards) is tied for 20th deepest, per Sports Info Solutions. However, Davis will be more than a boom-or-bust option in only GPPs if Emmanuel Sanders is out. Sanders was downgraded to out on Thursday's practice report, and Dwaine McFarland from Pro Football Focus tweeted Davis' superb marks in games when his route participation was north of 35%.

Davis' ceiling is sky-high if Sanders is out, and he is a defensible cash-game pick in that scenario.

Even in Buffalo's pass-heavy offense, Devin Singletary is a screaming value, emerging as the feature back in recent weeks. The running back called Motor has snap shares of 68%, 93%, and 82%, working backward the last three games. Singletary has had more than 75 scrimmage yards in each of those games, hauling in 12 receptions and scoring two touchdowns. Thus, it's easy to understand why we project him as the RB6 value at DraftKings and RB8 value at FanDuel on a 14.5-point favorite against a bad run defense (25th in rush defense DVOA).

Finally, I conceptually like stacking Singletary and Buffalo's defense in GPPs, since most gamers will prefer to save as much money as possible on defense. They're the DST4, according to our optimizer, ranking third in turnovers forced (29).

Game: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: LAR -4.0 Points

Over/Under: 46.5 Points

Rams Analysis: I'm giving Cooper Kupp the Taylor treatment from Indy's write-up above. He's running laps around the rest of the NFL in every meaningful receiving category. As a result, he's the WR1 with the WR1 value score at DraftKings and FanDuel.

However, he's not the only wide receiver I love from the Rams in a drool-inducing matchup. The Ravens are 30th in pass defense DVOA, allowing the fifth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts. Further, according to Sharp Football Stats, Baltimore cedes the highest average explosive pass rate (12%). Baltimore's ineptitude defending receivers was on full display against Cincinnati's receiver trio last week. So, I expect Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson Jr. to join Kupp in thrashing the Ravens. The optimizer agrees, tacking the WR5 value score at DraftKings and WR13 value score at FanDuel on OBJ and the WR15 value score at DraftKings on Jefferson.

Ravens Analysis: Mark Andrews is quarterback-proof. He has lit up the box score with Lamar Jackson, Tyler Hunley, and Josh Johnson. Andrews is also white-hot in his last three games with lines of 11-115-1, 10-136-2, and 8-125-1 from Week 14 through Week 16. We are projecting a TE1 finish at both daily fantasy sites. However, I'm likely only using him as a bring-back in skinny stacks with one of the Rams' wideouts.

Game: Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: SF -12.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Texans Analysis: Brandin Cooks is back from the reserve/COVID-19 list. He returns for a cushy matchup as a target hog. The 49ers are tied for the sixth-most DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts and are tied for the 10th-most FanDuel points yielded to the position. Additionally, Cooks is the leader in Houston's passing attack. Cooks has had a 27.2% target share on Davis Mills' 302 passes in games the two players have played together, leading Houston in receptions (59), receiving yards (644), touchdowns (four), and air yards (850). The forthcoming 49ers are one of my favorite narrow stacks, and Cooks is a high-upside bring-back option.

49ers Analysis: Trey Lance isn't officially the starter yet, but Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't practiced this week with a thumb sprain and fracture. So, the rookie quarterback will probably make the second start of his career. In six quarters (the second-half relief of Jimmy G in Week 4 and his Week 5 start), Lance has run for 130 yards on 23 rush attempts. That's the story for why Lance is appealing, beyond his tiny salary. However, he also passed for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Lance will be chalky as long as he starts, and I'll be eating the chalk. Lance has the QB1 value score at DraftKings and QB4 value score at FanDuel in our optimizer.

George Kittle is my favorite player to stack with Lance. A dud in Week 16 snapped a heater for Kittle in which he erupted for 9-181-2 in Week 13, 13-151-1 in Week 14, and 6-93-0 in Week 15. The stud tight end is also first among tight ends targeted at least 50 times with 2.61 Y/RR. So, we project him as the TE3 at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Finally, Brandon Aiyuk isn't a player I'll be overweight on. However, I'll likely fire a few GPP bullets, using him as Lance's stacking partner instead of Kittle. Thus, it's only a move to create variation with a quarterback I'm using on many of my rosters.

Game: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: LAC -6.5 Points

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Broncos Analysis: I wrote about Javonte Williams as one of my five favorite value plays at FanDuel for numberFire earlier this week. Instead of rehashing those points or plagiarizing myself, I suggest checking out that piece. However, allow me to add our optimizer supports my infatuation with Williams, tagging him with the RB6 value score at FanDuel. Finally, I also love the hard-charging rookie at DraftKings.

Chargers Analysis: The Chargers' offense is capable of exploding. Unfortunately, they scored only 13 points against the Broncos in Week 12. Additionally, their top DFS options are expensive. As a result, they're a victim of my preference for other elite talents in their price range, and I'm fading them entirely.

Game: Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: SEA -7.0 Points

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Lions Analysis: D'Andre Swift is likely playing this week. Unfortunately, his return provides me pause for using anyone, including late-season breakout rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. It's possible Swift siphons targets away from St. Brown. However, I can't trust Swift, with Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds playing well enough to retain roles in the backfield conceivably. Finally, Detroit's offense isn't potent enough to warrant taking massive leaps of faith on their offensive players.

Seahawks Analysis: Gerald Everett has had at least 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in the previous three games, hauling in four receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. Frankly, that's good enough to warrant consideration at his modest salary.

Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: NO -6.5 Points

Over/Under: 37.5 Points

Panthers Analysis: Musical chairs at quarterback for the Panthers lands on Sam Darnold as the starter this week. It doesn't matter. Carolina's offense is a dumpster fire. You'd be wise to stay far, far away from them on daily fantasy rosters.

Saints Analysis: Throw out last week's game for the Saints. Ian Book was pressed into duty with New Orleans' other quarterback options on the reserve/COVID-19 list. In Week 14, Alvin Kamara reminded gamers of his upside, rumbling for 120 yards and a touchdown, adding four receptions for 25 receiving yards. Opposing him, the Panthers are only 20th in rush defense DVOA. So, Kamara has a matchup that might allow him to hit his ceiling, and we project him as the RB4 at both sites. As a result, he's in my usable player pool for GPPs.

If I roll with Kamara, I might stack the Saints' defense with him. As I noted above, the Panthers' offense is a disaster. Conversely, the Saints' defense is good, ranking fourth in total DVOA, is tied for 13th in sacks (36), and is tied for 13th in turnovers forced (20). I don't expect Kamara and the Saints to be a popular stack since they're collectively expensive, making them more appealing in GPPs.

Game: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: DAL -6.0 Points

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

Cardinals Analysis: Please, stop me if you've heard the following before; the Cowboys are in the late afternoon timeslot, playing in a contest fans and gamers are expecting to shoot out. In Week 2 and Week 11, that was the story and the games faceplanted. So, the risk is apparent for this game failing to live up to expectations. However, the upside is undeniable, with the slate's highest over/under.

This game should be played at a breakneck pace. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals play at the sixth-highest situation neutral pace, and the Cowboys play at the fastest pace. Thus, there should be a ton of plays run in this game, enhancing fantasy-scoring potential. As a result, I'm fully enamored with Kyler Murray in GPPs. He hasn't had a ceiling game since earlier in the year. However, Murray's rushing has been on display of late, rumbling for 74 yards last week, 61 in Week 14, and 59 in Week 13. So, if he can settle into a groove as a passer with another week of adjustment to life without DeAndre Hopkins, Murray can break the slate.

Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Zach Ertz have solid cases for use as standalone plays or stacking options. In the last two weeks, without Nuk, Kirk is second in targets (21) and leads the team in routes (92), receptions (16), receiving yards (149), and ties for the team lead with one touchdown reception. Ertz is the most-targeted player with 24, parlaying them into 14 receptions for 128 receiving yards. Finally, Green has primarily been quiet with only five receptions for 97 scoreless yards on 11 targets. Nonetheless, he's popped off for a few excellent games, including seven receptions for 102 receiving yards in Week 14.

Chase Edmonds is the last piece of Arizona's offense that is enticing. Edmonds was outstanding last week with James Conner out. Now, Conner hasn't practiced this week.

The situation is set up for another game-time decision. If Conner is out, Edmonds is an elite pick. However, the Cardinals play in the late slot. So, gamers might be unwilling to roll the dice if the Cardinals take the decision with Conner down to the wire. Still, Edmonds' pass-catching chops and better health than Conner's present health makes him a useful option even in a shared backfield, assuaging concerns about selecting him and potentially being "stuck" with him if Conner is active. As a result, the optimizer projects Edmonds as a stellar value, giving him the RB9 value score at DraftKings and RB11 value score at FanDuel.

Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys are the hosts and 6.0-point favorites, boasting a blistering implied total of 31.75 points. This week, they're riding high after hanging 56 points on the Football Team in Week 16. Most encouragingly, Dak Prescott had his best game since November, carving up the opposition for 330 yards and four touchdowns, adding four rushes for 21 yards. As a result, Prescott projects as the QB7 this week, owning the QB5 value score at DraftKings and QB3 value score at FanDuel.

CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup are attractive stacking options with Prescott or one-off picks. Since Week 14, Lamb is fourth in routes, but he's tied for first in receptions (17) and first in targets (25) and receiving yards (177).

Cooper and Gallup rank first and second in routes, respectively, with 122 and 115. They've nearly been equally in receiving yards, with Cooper amassing 144 and Gallup rolling up 145. However, Cooper holds the edge in touchdowns, scoring two compared to zero for Gallup. All three receivers may leave gamers wanting more if Prescott spreads the wealth. However, each has the skill-set to blow up if Prescott opts to pepper one or two of the wideouts with targets.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.