This week jumps off with a playoff contender visiting a division leader. The game’s spread is small, suggesting we might have a back-and-forth affair on our hands. However, despite the small spread, I’m much more interested in using players from one team than the other.
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Game: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
Spread: SF -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
49ers Analysis: The 49ers are only modest favorites. Nevertheless, I'm much more interested in using their players than the players on Tennessee's impotent offense. Jimmy Garoppolo wisely uses his yards-after-the-catch weapons to score points and move the football. Jimmy G has passed for two touchdowns in five of his last seven games. In addition, he's eclipsed 290 passing yards in three of those games. I don't see any reason for him to slow down in an average matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans are 15th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
This week jumps off with a playoff contender visiting a division leader. The game’s spread is small, suggesting we might have a back-and-forth affair on our hands. However, despite the small spread, I’m much more interested in using players from one team than the other.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup advice
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
Spread: SF -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
49ers Analysis: The 49ers are only modest favorites. Nevertheless, I'm much more interested in using their players than the players on Tennessee's impotent offense. Jimmy Garoppolo wisely uses his yards-after-the-catch weapons to score points and move the football. Jimmy G has passed for two touchdowns in five of his last seven games. In addition, he's eclipsed 290 passing yards in three of those games. I don't see any reason for him to slow down in an average matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans are 15th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
My favorite passing-game option on the 49ers is George Kittle. The stud tight end has been an unstoppable force. According to Pro Football Focus, among 39 tight ends targeted at least 30 times this year, Kittle is first in yards per route run (2.81 Y/RR), a remarkable 0.46 Y/RR above Dallas Goedert (2.35 Y/RR) in second. In addition, he has been on a heater since returning from the Injured Reserve in Week 9. In his last seven games, he's reached pay dirt in five of them, hauled in at least four receptions six times, and bested 90 receiving yards three times. Thus, Kittle is my favorite player on this single-game slate.
Deebo Samuel isn't far behind. Unfortunately, Elijah Mitchell is still out. As a result, Samuel should remain in his hybrid role, running routes as a receiver and toting the rock from the backfield occasionally. Samuel's multi-faceted role has led to 33 rush attempts and 12 receptions in his last five games, scoring an eye-popping seven touchdowns with 453 scrimmage yards. So, he's a matchup-proof offensive weapon.
In the following order, I also like Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans allow wide receivers the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. Since Kittle returned from the Injured Reserve in Week 9, Aiyuk has been second on the team in targets (43), receptions (29), receiving yards (444), and touchdown receptions (three), and first in routes (212), per Pro Football Focus.
Jennings is an ancillary option in the offense. However, he has benefited from Samuel taking snaps in the backfield lately. No, he's not a high-ceiling option. Still, he has a touchdown in two of his last four games, securing multiple receptions and clearing 20 receiving yards three times. So, he has merit for consideration on the single-game slate.
Jeff Wilson Jr. is the final option on San Fransisco's offense I like. Wilson was a workhorse last week, carrying the ball 21 times for 110 yards and a touchdown and reeling in both of his targets for nine yards. Also, according to our snap counts, Wilson had the fifth-highest snap share (88%) among running backs in Week 15. The workload is too good to ignore, especially at his salary at DraftKings.
Titans Analysis: There are multiple players listed in Tennessee's table. However, I won't use more than two -- at most -- on any of my single-game slate lineups. Unfortunately, Tennessee's offense has been struggling mightily lately, evidenced by scoring 23 points or fewer in five straight. Further, they've bested 350 total yards of offense only two times during their slump.
Thankfully, A.J. Brown is expected to return this week. So, the offense might get a much-needed jolt from one of their star players. He's my favorite option, despite possibly facing playing time restrictions after his multi-week absence. Even on less than a full complement of snaps, Brown's ceiling is unmatched by anyone else on Tennessee's roster. It's been a largely forgettable season for Brown, but his 7-91-0, 8-133-1, and 10-155-1 three-game stretch from Week 6 through Week 8 illustrate his cathedral-high ceiling.
I'm not bullish on Ryan Tannehill or D'Onta Foreman. Tannehill has passed for under 200 yards in three straight, falling short of 220 passing yards in five of his last six games. Woof. In addition, Tannehill has had only six games with multiple touchdowns.
As for Foreman, the Titans use all three of their healthy running backs, and the sledding will be tough for Foreman on the ground. The 49ers are second in rush defense DVOA. Additionally, last week, Foreman's six routes trailed Jeremy McNichols' 12 and Dontrell Hilliard's 17, creating a low floor if the Titans have to play from behind.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine led the Titans in routes (35) last week, and he's done so over Tennessee's previous three games (92). Nonetheless, he has only nine receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown during that period. Brown's return may raise all ships in Tennessee's offense. Also, the second-year pro could come through for gamers with a touchdown. He's scored a touchdown in three of 13 games. Also, according to our red zone stats, Westbrook-Ikhine has had the most red-zone targets (nine) on the team.
Staying on the topic of the red zone, I'll gladly take the cheapest member of Tennessee's three-man committee at tight end. MyCole Pruitt has had six red-zone targets, resulting in three touchdowns. However, it's a crowded position with Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser running more routes than Pruitt. As a result, I prefer to hunt a cheap touchdown instead of chasing the sub-par production at a higher salary for Swaim and Firkser.
Finally, Julio Jones fully participated in practice on Wednesday and isn't on the injury report. However, he left last week's game early with a hamstring injury and has underperformed in the rare instances he's stayed healthy this year. Thus, I am fading him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.