The Cowboys are double-digit favorites for the Sunday Night Football game. The Football Team made a surprising mad dash in Week 14 against the Cowboys, making the final score more respectable in a seven-point loss. However, they were thoroughly dominated for the majority of the game. Further, I’m expecting more domination without a fluky finish this go-round.
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Game: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
The Cowboys are double-digit favorites for the Sunday Night Football game. The Football Team made a surprising mad dash in Week 14 against the Cowboys, making the final score more respectable in a seven-point loss. However, they were thoroughly dominated for the majority of the game. Further, I’m expecting more domination without a fluky finish this go-round.
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Game: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Football Team Analysis: Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin are listed in the table because they're viable options. However, I'm fading both. Heinicke hit the skids before missing Week 15 on the reserve/COVID-19 list, failing to clear 225 passing yards in four straight games, and rushing for more than 10 yards only once in that sample. The Cowboys clowned him, holding him to only 122 yards on a sub-50% completion rate.
Predictably, McLaurin's production has suffered from Heinicke's lackluster showings. He has recorded more than 60 receiving yards in only one of his last seven games and twice since Week 5. Unfortunately, he suffered a concussion in Week 14 against the Cowboys. Still, he had a bagel in the receptions column on a 49% offensive snap share. Therefore, he was awful before the concussion in this matchup.
Antonio Gibson is nursing a toe injury that's prevented him from practicing to start the week (Wednesday and Thursday). However, since the Football Team is on a short turnaround after playing Tuesday, the situation might not be as dire as sitting on a Wednesday and Thursday typically would be. Still, if he's ruled out, Jaret Patterson is the top back for Washington and in the usable-player pool.
Generally, I prefer to use one player from Washington's bargain options and fill the rest of my roster on this single-game slot with players from the Cowboys. However, in the Football Team's last three games, Adam Humphries has been second in routes (74), targets (18), and receiving yards (95), and third in receptions (11). Still, those are unexciting numbers. So, I'm willing to go a bit cheaper with Ricky Seals-Jones or dip down to John Bates. In Week 15, RSJ ran 24 routes versus 17 for Bates. Further, the former had six targets, four receptions, and 29 receiving yards compared to one target, one reception, and 29 receiving yards. Still, since RSJ was relatively ineffective, I'm content punting with Bates and avoiding Washington's dreadful offense with my other roster spots.
Cowboys Analysis: I expect this game to go according to the game's huge spread. As a result, I'm intrigued by doubling up on Dallas' running backs, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, fading Dak Prescott and snaring a few of the team's top pass-catching options.
According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is leading by four points or more, the Cowboys run at a 51% rate -- precisely the league average. Additionally, their run rate ticks up a couple of points to 53% when leading by eight points or more. So, if you expect the Cowboys to boat race the Football Team as I do and the spread suggests it will happen, then there's plenty of meat on the bone for Zeke and Pollard.
Furthermore, they've coexisted well in the offense lately. Elliott has 16 combined rush attempts and targets or more in six straight games, scoring four touchdowns, eclipsing 55 scrimmage yards in four times, and securing multiple receptions five times. Are those jaw-dropping benchmarks? Of course, they're not. Still, they're adequate.
Meanwhile, Pollard has been a spark plug with a modest role, with nine or more rush attempts plus targets in five straight games. Pollard has reeled in multiple receptions each game during this five-game stretch, recording no fewer than 68 scrimmage yards in any of them.
Transitioning to the passing game, the wide receivers have a dreamy matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Washington allows the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts. Handicapping the receivers, CeeDee Lamb is the runaway winner for the top wideout honor. Since Week 14, he's tied for the third-most routes (105). However, he's first on the Cowboys in targets (31), receptions (20), and receiving yards (200).
Behind Lamb, Amari Cooper has more cache, but I'll take Michael Gallup ahead of him. In the same three-game sample noted above, Gallup has led the Cowboys in routes (120), ranking third in receptions (13), and second in targets (21) and receiving yards (128), hauling in a touchdown for good measure.
Finally, Dalton Schultz looks good under the microscope. He has more than 40 yards with three or more receptions in four of his last five games. And, since Week 13, he has been third on the club in targets (16) and receiving yards (114), and second in routes (109) and receptions (14), catching a touchdown as well. Shultz also brings touchdown potential to the table attached to Dallas' gaudy implied total as a red-zone favorite of Prescott. According to our red zone stats, Schultz is fourth on the Cowboys on targets inside the 20 (nine), but he's tied for the team lead with three touchdowns in that area of the field. Thus, I think he's grossly underpriced.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.