We were supposed to be treated to two games last Saturday. But, unfortunately, COVID-19 struck down one game, leaving us with a single-game slate. So, this week, we’ll try again on Christmas. Below, I highlight the tight player pool from which I’m selecting my rosters.
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Game: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Browns Analysis: The Browns have 19 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list. However, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, and Jedrick Wills Jr. are all meaningful players on the offense who might test off the list by Saturday. According to Pro Football Focus, in Cleveland's previous two weeks, before having their roster gutted by COVID-19, Landry led the Browns in routes (71), followed by Donovan Peoples-Jones (67).
We were supposed to be treated to two games last Saturday. But, unfortunately, COVID-19 struck down one game, leaving us with a single-game slate. So, this week, we’ll try again on Christmas. Below, I highlight the tight player pool from which I’m selecting my rosters.
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Game: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Browns Analysis: The Browns have 19 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list. However, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, and Jedrick Wills Jr. are all meaningful players on the offense who might test off the list by Saturday. According to Pro Football Focus, in Cleveland's previous two weeks, before having their roster gutted by COVID-19, Landry led the Browns in routes (71), followed by Donovan Peoples-Jones (67).
Landry and DPJ were Cleveland's top two receivers in targets (18 and 12), receptions (11 and seven), and receiving yards (152 and 100). The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs. So, if they are forced to play catch-up, as the betting line indicates, Landry and DPJ should get the requisite volume to help daily fantasy squads.
However, as long as the Browns can keep it close, you should expect Nick Chubb to be busy. The talented running back is one of the best in the NFL. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Chubb is fourth in rushing yards per game (92.5), splashing pay dirt eight times (seven on the ground and once through the air). The matchup is good for Chubb as well. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are 25th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Packers Analysis: Aaron Rodgers is white-hot. Last week, he snapped a three-game streak of 300-plus passing with multiple touchdowns by only throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns. The Browns are 23rd in pass defense DVOA. In other words, they're the caliber of defense I expect to throw a wet blanket on Rodgers' heater.
Davante Adams is the reigning NFL MVP top stacking partner and top wideout on the two-game slate. According to Sports Info Solutions, Adams is 10th in Intended Air Yards (1,339) and second in target share (29.2%). Predictably, he's turning his elite usage into top-flight production, ranking tied for eighth in receiving touchdowns (eight) and second in receptions per game (7.4) and receiving yards per game (96.0).
Allen Lazard and Josiah Deguara are other pieces of Green Bay's passing attack I'm intrigued by. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, creating more opportunities behind Adams. In addition, last week, Lazard was second on the Packers in routes (29). Unfortunately, Deguara's modest climb in production lately came to a halt with only three receptions for 16 yards on five targets. On the plus side, he was fourth on the team in routes (21). Moreover, in Green Bay's last three games, Deguara has been fourth on the team in routes (74). On this small slate, punting tight end or using two is a viable strategy.
I believe this game might turn into a boat race. As a result, I'll take the discount to use AJ Dillon instead of Aaron Jones since the former has been used in the closer role at times this year. Additionally, while Jones carried the ball more than Dillon last week, Dillon has toted the rock 42 times to Jones' 28 attempts since Week 12. The Browns aren't an impediment, either, ranking 16th in rush defense DVOA.
Finally, the Packers are the biggest favorites on the slate and at home. The conditions support using their defense against Cleveland's unexciting offense.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Colts Analysis: The Colts ran the ball 39 times and attempted only 12 passes in last week's win against the Patriots. This week, they face Arizona's lower-ranked run defense. The Patriots are sixth in rush defense DVOA compared to eighth for the Cardinals. More importantly, Jonathan Taylor is an unstoppable force on the ground. The explosive second-year back is second in rushing yards per game (108.4) and first in rushing touchdowns (17), adding 2.6 receptions and 24.0 receiving yards per game, and two more touchdowns through the air. Finally, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Cards allow the highest average explosive run rate.
The Colts defense is a rock-solid stacking partner with Taylor or standalone play as a cheap defense. Of course, I'm not overreacting to last week's stinker against the Lions. Still, the Cardinals weren't sharp without DeAndre Hopkins, and the Colts are a formidable defense, ranking tied for first in turnovers forced (31) and recording 30 sacks.
Cardinals Analysis: Maybe Kyler Murray will be sharper after another week of practices to adjust to life without Nuk. The dual-threat quarterback is the only quarterback other than Rodgers I'm interested in, as his upside is undeniable. Murray averages 24.5 rushing yards per game, with five rushing touchdowns bolstering his 276.3 passing yards per game and 20 passing scores. Further, the Colts are easier to beat through the air than on the ground, ranking third in rush defense DVOA and 16th in pass defense DVOA.
Last week, Christian Kirk led the Cardinals in routes (52), followed by Zach Ertz (48), and A.J. Green was in fourth with 36. I skipped Antoine Wesley in third and didn't include him in the table because I view him as a trap play this week. Out of the three highlighted pass-catchers, Ertz is my favorite. He hauled in six of 11 targets for 74 receiving yards and has a plum draw. The Colts allow the third-most DraftKings and fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Comparatively, Indy has been mid-pack in fantasy points yielded to wideouts. Kirk held the route advantage over Green last week. Nevertheless, I view both on nearly equal footing. According to Pro Football Focus, Green has averaged 1.75 yards per route run (Y/RR), and Kirk has averaged 1.92 Y/RR. Additionally, Green has run only 10 fewer routes than Kirk, despite playing in one less game.
Finally, Chase Edmonds is the only cheap running back I'm intrigued by. He was outpaced by James Conner in routes (17 versus 14) in his return last week. However, Conner hasn't practiced this week while tending to a heel injury. Edmonds' explosiveness and receiving skills could give him the edge if the Cardinals find themselves in a hole and playing from behind again this week, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.