Week 16 NFL DFS Digest (2021 Fantasy Football)

There are 11 games on this week’s main slate. Below, I discuss every game, highlighting only the players I’m interested in using in daily fantasy contests.

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Week 16 Matchups

Game: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: PHI -10.0 Points

Over/Under: 40.5 Points

Giants Analysis: Big Blue is a big no from a daily fantasy perspective. Their implied total of a comically low 16.0 points tells you all you need to know.

Eagles Analysis: The Eagles deploy the NFL's most run-heavy offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points (which I'll refer to as a neutral score or game script from now on), the Eagles run the most (50% compared to a league average of 43%).

Jalen Hurts has had a massive hand in the running game. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he is 22nd in rushing yards per game (56.4). Meanwhile, Miles Sanders is ninth with 64.5 rushing yards per game. The Giants are unlikely to provide them much resistance as runners. According to Football Outsiders, the G-Men are 28th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Sanders has the RB8 value score FanDuel and RB9 value score at DraftKings.

Additionally, Hurts adds to his fantasy appeal through the air, passing for 210.1 yards per game. He's tossed 14 touchdowns and rushed for 10 scores. As a result, he's one of the top quarterback options in all game types. Our optimizer projects a QB5 finish with the QB3 value score at DraftKings and QB2 value score at FanDuel.

When the second-year quarterback takes to the air, Dallas Goedert is his best weapon. Goedert's production has blown up in the wake of the Eagles trading Zach Ertz. According to Pro Football Focus, among 39 tight ends with at least 15 targets since Week 7, Goedert has been tied with George Kittle for third in yards per route run (2.53 Y/RR). Any time you can find yourself mentioned in the same breath as Kittle at tight end, you're doing something right. He's projected as the TE5 at DraftKings and TE4 at FanDuel, with a TE4 value score and TE1 value score.

Game: Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: LAR -3.5 Points

Over/Under: 49.0 Points

Rams Analysis: Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are making sweet music together. The former Lion is third in passing yards per game (295.9), second in passing touchdowns (35), and first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.05 ANY/A). Meanwhile, Kupp is setting the league ablaze, leading the way in receptions per game (8.7), receiving yards per game (116.1), and touchdown receptions (14), pulling off the receiving equivalent of the Triple Crown. As a result, the duo is an excellent stack. Kupp's the WR1 on both providers, sporting the DraftKings WR3 value score and FanDuel WR1 value score.

Don't dismiss the other top receivers, Van Jefferson Jr. and Odell Beckham Jr., either. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings permit the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers. While both are rock-solid picks, I prefer Jefferson if you're selecting only one of them. Since Week 10, Jefferson is tied for second on the Rams in receptions (16) and receiving touchdowns (three), and alone in second for routes (182), targets (28), and receiving yards (269).

In the backfield, Sony Michel proved to be the lead back even with Darrell Henderson Jr. returning last week. According to our snap counts, Michel played 73% of the Rams' offensive snaps compared to only 27% for Henderson. The domination extended to rush attempts (18 for 92 yards versus six for 23) and routes (21 compared to eight). Thus, Michel's underpriced as a bell-cow back on a favored team in a good matchup. The Vikings are 21st in rush defense DVOA.

Vikings Analysis: Dalvin Cook is on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Alexander Mattison is back. Mattison has three fill-in starts this year, recording touch totals of 32 (six receptions), 32 (seven receptions), and 25 (three receptions), producing yardage totals of 171, 153, and 124 with a touchdown. Thus, he's a bell-cow back and an exceptional value on FanDuel. He's also a pinch underpriced on DraftKings relative to his workhorse role.

Game: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Spread: NE -2.5 Points

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

Bills Analysis: The Bills have a tough matchup on the docket against the Patriots this week. However, their offense can hang points in bunches when they're clicking, making them one of my favorite options for contrarian stacking this week. Additionally, in neutral game scripts, the Bills pass at the highest rate (68%). So, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are on the table as high-upside picks, despite facing New England's third-ranked defense in pass defense DVOA.

Dawson Knox is also a GPP pick that can deliver as a swerve off the likely more popular options around his price point at tight end. The key for gambling on Knox paying off is likely reaching pay dirt. Thankfully, according to our red zone stats, Knox's 15 targets inside the 20 are tied for the sixth-most among tight ends, resulting in five touchdowns (tied for the fourth-most). We project a TE4 with a TE5 value score at DraftKings and a TE3 and TE2 value score at FanDuel.

Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie are also daily fantasy options. Davis balled out with Emmanuel Sanders out last week, producing a 5-85-2 line on seven targets. Even if Sanders returns this week, Cole Beasley is on the reserve/COVID-19 list. So, Davis' role in the offense is secure. The optimizer projects Davis as the WR7 value at both daily fantasy providers.

McKenzie's value as a punt on DraftKings is directly tied to Sanders missing a second straight game. The undersized, shifty wideout is a natural fit in the slot. He's run 65.2% of his passing snaps from the slot this year. In his time with the Bills, the team has also used him on gadget plays such as jet sweeps. I can think of worse dart throws at literally the minimum salary at DraftKings.

Devin Singletary's usage and value are on the upswing. He set season-highs for a snap share in back-to-back weeks with an 82% offensive snap share in Week 14 and 93% mark last week. Singletary also set season-highs for rush attempts (22) and rushing yards (86), adding a touchdown and 10-yard reception. At Singletary's modest salary, I'm intrigued enough to fire a few bullets in GPPs. He has the projected RB10 value score at both daily fantasy outlets.

Patriots Analysis: The Patriots are 10th in scoring offense (26.2). However, New England's offense lacks high-end talent that commands hefty usage. In addition, the Bills are a bad matchup, ranking second in pass defense DVOA and ninth in rush defense DVOA. However, if Damien Harris's hamstring sidelines him and Rhamondre Stevenson overcomes his illness, the latter has appeal after New England rushed the ball at will against Buffalo a few weeks ago.

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: TB -10.0 Points

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers were ravaged by injuries last week, losing Chris Godwin for the season and likely losing Leonard Fournette and Mike Evans for at least this week. As a result, there's opportunity abound for others to step up.

Rob Gronkowski has been having an outstanding season. He's averaging 4.4 receptions and 58.6 receiving yards per game, hauling in six touchdown receptions. Additionally, among tight ends targeted at least 40 times this year, he's seventh in yards per route run (1.90 Y/RR). Last week, Gronk was uncharacteristically bad. However, the larger body of work is good, and we project him for a TE2 finish at both daily fantasy sites with a TE5 value score at FanDuel.

In Tampa Bay's pass-happy offense, Antonio Brown is another eye-catching piece in his presumed return from injury and suspension. In neutral game scripts, the Bucs pass at the second-highest rate (67%). So, there's volume to support multiple pass-catchers. Before Brown got hurt, he played excellent, averaging 5.8 receptions and 83.6 receiving yards per game, hauling in four touchdowns, and eclipsing 120 receiving yards in two of five games. The optimizer is enamored with Brown, projecting a WR11 finish at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the WR1 value score at the former and WR11 value score at the latter. Thus, he's an elite selection and a borderline must-play pick in cash games at DraftKings.

Other ancillary passing-game options on my radar include Breshad Perriman (if he makes it off the reserve/COVID-19 list), Tyler Johnson, and Cameron Brate. Perriman's my favorite of the wideouts, given his big-play potential requiring only one long pass -- evidenced on his game-winning touchdown in Week 14 -- to reward investors. Brate, however, is popping as the top value play at tight end on DraftKings. Remarkably, Brate is tied for the third-most red zone targets (17) at tight end, despite Tom Brady having a bevy of weapons at his disposal most of the year. Brate's a touchdown-or-bust option at worse with the potential for an increased role between the 20s if the Bucs ramp up their two-tight-end-personnel usage.

Finally, Ronald Jones II is the lock-button play across all positions in cash games. He split receiving work with Ke'Shawn Vaughn in relief of Fournette last week. Further, Le'Veon Bell is a Buc now, and he could be active and used as a pass-catching option. Nevertheless, the Bucs are massive favorites, reducing the likelihood they'll be in catch-up mode. Last week, Jones passed the eye-ball test, looking fresh en route to 63 yards on eight carries and two receptions for eight yards. Also, he was a fabulous runner last year, averaging 69.9 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per rush attempt. So, it's easy to understand why the optimizer projects him as the RB1 value at both daily fantasy outlets with an RB6 projection at DraftKings and RB5 ranking at FanDuel.

Panthers Analysis: The Bucs should steamroll the Panthers, despite their injury woes. Ameer Abdullah might be a sneaky punt at DraftKings as Carolina's receiving back if that comes to fruition. Abdullah has run 45 routes to only 21 for Chuba Hubbard in the past two weeks without Christian McCaffrey. Additionally, he may have a more prominent role out of the chute in Week 16 since the Bucs have tied for the second-most receptions (97) allowed to running backs. This week, there are many cheap options at running back, rendering Abdullah merely a speculative contrarian play in GPPs on DraftKings.

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Spread: NYJ -1.5 Points

Over/Under: 41.5 Points

Jaguars Analysis: There is a wild discrepancy in pricing for James Robinson between DraftKings and FanDuel. Yes, we project an RB2 finish for J-Rob at both providers. However, he has the RB3 value score at DraftKings and RB12 value score at FanDuel. In the first game without Urban Meyer making donkey moves as Jacksonville's head coach, Robinson was force-fed the ball 21 times (three receptions on six targets) for 88 yards and a touchdown. I expect him to build on those numbers in daily fantasy's most friendly matchup for running backs, squaring off with the Jets.

Laquon Treadwell is also a nifty punt on DraftKings. Treadwell led the Jaguars in routes (40) in interim coach Darrell Bevell's first game in that position. Treadwell is on a stretch of good games, catching at least four passes and besting 50 receiving yards in four straight. The Jets shouldn't slow him down, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA.

Jets Analysis: Gang Green hasn't bested 300 total yards of offense since Week 11. I'm not investing in their dysfunctional offense, and I suggest you fade them as well.

Game: Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: ATL -5.5 Points

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Lions Analysis: I would love Amon-Ra St. Brown this week under normal conditions. Unfortunately, Jared Goff is on the reserve/COVID-19 list. In the other game Goff missed this year, Detroit's offense crumbled with Tim Boyle leading the offense. Simply, Boyle isn't an NFL-caliber quarterback. However, if Goff surprisingly escapes the reserve/COVID-19 list in time to start this week's game (he's vaccinated), then St. Brown is a rock-solid option.

Falcons Analysis: Cordarrrelle Patterson is the poster child for what I look for in some GPP dart throws at running back. First, he's coming off an ugly showing, totaling only 23 scoreless yards with two receptions. Second, there's a host of eye-catching cheaper alternatives that gamers will probably flock to. Thus, he might go under the radar despite a sweet matchup and high-upside skill-set as an explosive runner and receiver. To the former point, the Lions allow the fourth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs. Finally, our optimizer supports using him, projecting him as the RB4 at DraftKings with the RB5 value score and the RB3 with the RB4 value score at FanDuel.

Atlanta's passing attack has a good matchup, too. The Lions are 26th in pass defense DVOA. Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts -- as well as the already discussed C-Patt -- are the core cogs in Atlanta's passing game. Gage has ascended to the top of Atlanta's passing-game hierarchy, owning a 26.2% target share since Week 9. In that period, he's eighth out of 49 receivers targeted at least 30 times in yards per route run (2.23 Y/RR).

As for Pitts, he might be snapping out of a mid-season malaise. Over the last two weeks, he has nine receptions for 138 yards on 13 targets, snapping a three-game streak of falling short of 50 receiving yards. Furthermore, he has a pair of blow-up performances on his resume, roasting the Jets for a 9-119-1 line in Week 5 and the Dolphins for a 7-163-0 line in Week 7. So, he's shown a high ceiling in his rookie season. Our optimizer projects a TE6 finish at DraftKings and a TE5 finish with a TE4 value score at FanDuel in Week 16.

Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

Spread: LAC -10.0 Points

Over/Under: 46.0 Points

Chargers Analysis: The Chargers have done two things that bode well for the outlooks of Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. First, the Chargers pass in neutral game scripts at the fifth-highest rate (62%). Second, according to Football Outsiders, they play at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace. So, they pass a lot and play an up-tempo brand of football.

Herbert has made the most of his passing-friendly offense, ranking fourth in passing yards per game (289.9) and third in touchdown passes (32). In addition, the Chargers might put moe on Herbert's plate with Austin Ekeler on the reserve/COVID-19 list. As a result, we project Herbert as the QB1 this week with a matching value score at FanDuel and a QB2 value score at DraftKings.

Allen is the top pass-catcher for the Chargers. Moreover, he's ninth in receiving yards per game (77.5) and fourth in receptions per game (7.1). So understandably, the optimizer likes him, projecting a WR3 finish at both sites with a WR5 value score at FanDuel.

Unfortunately, Williams hasn't been a model of consistency this year. Nonetheless, according to Sports Info Solutions, Williams is 17th in Intended Air Yards (1,226). The big-bodied wideout also has a handful of spiked weeks on his ledger this year, making him a high-upside risk worth taking in GPPs as a one-off pick or stacking option with Herbert.

Finally, I mentioned Ekeler's placement on the reserve/COVID-19 list, opening the door for Justin Jackson starting at running back. Last week, Jackson was sharp complementing a banged-up Ekeler, rushing for 86 yards on 13 attempts and securing his only target for 13 yards. He's a defensible pick on FanDuel. However, he's an even better pick at DraftKings.

Texans Analysis: The Texans are a below-average offense at full health. This week, I expect it to crumble with Brandin Cooks on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: CIN -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 45.0 Points

Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson hasn't practiced this week. Regardless, Mark Andrews is an unstoppable force. With Tyler Huntley starting last week, Andrew caught 10 of 13 targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns. He creamed the Browns for 11 receptions, 115 receiving yards, and one touchdown the week before. Predictably, Andrews is the TE1 in our projections, earning a TE6 value score at DraftKings and a TE3 value score at FanDuel. The upcoming Bengals are my favorite offense to stack this week, making Andrews an elite bring-back option.

Bengals Analysis: In Week 7, Joe Burrow had his best game of the year, ripping the Ravens to shreds. He passed for 416 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, Baltimore's secondary lost superstar cornerback Marlon Humphrey to injury. Further, the Ravens are 29th in pass defense DVOA. Therefore, I believe Burrow will exceed our projection as the QB8 with a QB5 value score at DraftKings and QB6 value score at FanDuel.

His running mates, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are also elite picks. Chase pantsed the Ravens in the first meeting, spanking them for an 8-201-1 line. Tee Higgins also hauled in seven of 15 targets for 62 receiving yards. Last week's stinker snapped a three-game stretch of 114 receiving yards or more in which Higgins scored two touchdowns. Both receivers have sky-high ceilings, and I'm going to enter some three-man stacks with Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. Thankfully, the optimizer loves both receivers, projecting Chase as the WR5 with the WR6 value score at FanDuel. Meanwhile, Higgins is projected as the WR7 with the WR4 value score at DraftKings and the WR2 value score at FanDuel.

Behind the talented receivers, C.J. Uzomah is another intriguing piece of Cinci's passing attack. Unfortunately, he's been non-existent in many games this year. However, he has two blow-up games, and one was when he torched the Ravens for three receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns. There might be a point-chasing vibe to this suggestion, but the Ravens allow the fifth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points to tight ends this year. He's one of the top value plays, with the TE3 value score at DraftKings and TE8 value score at FanDuel.

Finally, Cincinnati's defense is the top value option on FanDuel and an excellent pick on DraftKings, too. Jackson has been sacked at the fourth-highest rate (9.0%) among qualified quarterbacks this year, so the defense should feast if a hobbled Jackson gets the start. However, Huntley has had a 7.4% sack rate that would tie for the ninth-highest mark if he played enough to be a qualified quarterback. So, the Bengals should pile up sacks regardless of who starts at quarterback for Baltimore, namely if the high-powered offense stakes them to a big lead like in the first game.

Game: Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: SEA -6.5 Points

Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Bears Analysis: Unfortunately, Justin Fields' status for this week has to be monitored as he sat out of Thursday's practice with an ankle injury. The ankle injury adds a level of risk to using Fields even if he plays. Regardless, he's a high-upside pick with the highest value score across all positions at DraftKings this week. The rookie signal caller has passed for more than 220 yards and rushed for 154 yards in his last three starts, which he didn't leave early with an injury. The matchup is good for him through the air as well, with the Seahawks ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA.

As the runaway top pass-catcher in Chicago's offense, Darnell Mooney is Fields' top stacking partner. The second-year receiver is 18th in Intended Air Yards (1,214) and 10th in target share (24.9%). Mooney is best described as a boom-or-bust receiver, failing to clear 50 receiving yards in eight games (scoring a touchdown in two, though) and surpassing 120 yards three times. Therefore, he is a better pick in GPPs than cash games.

Finally, Montgomery is my favorite option from the Bears. He's a workhorse back in every sense, playing 77% of Chicago's offensive snaps this year and carving out a meaningful receiving role. Montgomery has 19 receptions for 113 receiving yards in his last three games, adding 192 rushing yards and a score on the ground. He blends a top-flight projection with a desirable value score in our projections, ranking as the RB3 at DraftKings and RB4 at FanDuel with an RB2 value score at both providers.

Seahawks Analysis: Fields is sacked at the highest rate (11.8%) among qualified quarterbacks. Yet, if his ankle injury hinders him, there's more sack potential. That's reason enough to put Seattle's defense on my radar at DraftKings, where they're the DST5 with a matching value score.

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: KC -8.5 Points

Over/Under: 45.0 Points

Steelers Analysis: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are on the reserve/COVID-19 list at the time of writing. Kansas City's offense might struggle if they can't test off the list in time for this week's game, making Pittsburgh's defense an intriguing GPP pick.

Chiefs Analysis: First, I'm only interested in using Kansas City's defense in stacks with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Otherwise, I'll take the savings to spin down to cheaper defenses. Still, the Chiefs' defense is the DST3 in the optimizer with a DST3 value score at FanDuel.

As for CEH, he projects as the RB8 at both sites with the RB4 value score at DraftKings and the RB6 value score at FanDuel. The second-year running back combines a mouthwatering matchup with an encouraging development. First, the Steelers are 30th in rush defense DVOA. Second, CEH ran a season-high 34 routes last week, well ahead of the 15 routes run for Darrel Williams.

CEH was already ahead of Williams in the pecking order for carries. So, if he's passing him as the top receiving back, CEH's floor and ceiling are greatly enhanced. Finally, Edwards-Helaire is the beneficiary of running in an above-average offense at run blocking. According to Football Outsiders, Kansas City is 12th in Adjusted Line Yards. However, Pro Football Focus is even higher on their run-blocking ability, grading them as the third-best run-blocking team.

Game: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: DEN -1.0 Points

Over/Under: 41.0 Points

Broncos Analysis: Javonte Williams hasn't taken over Denver's backfield, and his inclusion in this space isn't insinuating I expect him to do so this week. However, the talented rookie running back has played a higher percentage of snaps than Melvin Gordon III in three of the last four games both have played. Also, Williams has pulled ahead of Gordon in the passing game, running 68 routes versus 40 in the discussed four-game sample.

The shared backfield also hasn't prevented Williams from making the most of his chances. He's eclipsed 80 yards in three straight games with Gordon active, scoring a touchdown in two. As a runner, Williams is a nightmare for opposing tacklers. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 49 running backs with at least 75 attempts this year, Williams is fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.55 YCO/A) and first in missed tackles forced (57).

Finally, our optimizer isn't dissuaded from projecting a favorable showing even with Gordon healthy. Williams is projected as the RB5 with the RB7 value score at DraftKings and the RB6 with the RB3 value score at FanDuel.

Raiders Analysis: The Raiders have been inconsistent this year. In addition, their offense is mired in a lengthy slump, scoring more than 16 points in only one of seven games since their Week 8 bye. Yes, Hunter Renfrow has overcome the offense's struggles. Nevertheless, he's not underpriced anymore. And, yes, Josh Jacobs has finally been used in the passing game. Still, he's highly inefficient. As a result, I'm not using any of the Raiders players this week.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.