The Chiefs and Chargers are opening Week 15 in what should be an exciting game with playoff ramifications. The game’s spread is modest, favoring the visiting Chiefs. However, the Chargers beat the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this year. Both teams are top-heavy with elite talent, necessitating picking among them and mixing in players that provide salary-cap relief. Below, I parse through the top options and viable bargain plays.
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Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: KC -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
The Chiefs and Chargers are opening Week 15 in what should be an exciting game with playoff ramifications. The game’s spread is modest, favoring the visiting Chiefs. However, the Chargers beat the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this year. Both teams are top-heavy with elite talent, necessitating picking among them and mixing in players that provide salary-cap relief. Below, I parse through the top options and viable bargain plays.
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Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: KC -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes' overall stats this year have been stellar. Furthermore, he passed for 260 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in Week 3 against the Chargers, adding four carries for 45 rushing yards. Nevertheless, he's not a must-use option on this slate. He's accumulated a significant chunk of his production in two games against the Raiders. Moreover, the Chargers are easier to beat on the ground than through the air. According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are ninth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and last in rush defense DVOA.
Thankfully, you can get exposure to Kansas City's passing attack's upside with their duo of stud pass-catchers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. According to Sports Info Solutions, Cheetah is tied for the fifth-highest target share (27.2%) with the fourth-most Intended Air Yards (1,476). Meanwhile, Kelce has slumped lately, but he has a fantastic 22.5% target share. Additionally, one of Kelce's best games this year was when he hung a 7-104-0 line on the Chargers in Week 3. Finally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the matchup is inviting for using Kelce, as the Chargers allow the sixth-most DraftKings and fifth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends this year. I slightly prefer Kelce to Hill if picking between the two. However, I like both.
The cheap pieces of the passing attack I'm intrigued by are Byron Pringle and Darrel Williams. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 10, Pringle has run the third-most routes (87) for the Chiefs, netting the four most targets (11), receptions (six), and receiving yards (97). So, obviously, those are modest totals in three games. Still, he's on the radar.
Meanwhile, since Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned in Week 11, he's run only 36 routes versus 57 for Williams. However, CEH has had 36 rush attempts for 154 yards and three touchdowns versus 12 rush attempts for 43 scoreless yards. Thus, CEH is probably better exposure to the Chargers' Charmin-soft run defense. Still, Williams is more game-script proof, and he's a steal on DraftKings and a reasonable bargain on FanDuel. Given their different roles and the Chargers' susceptibility to getting gashed on the ground, it's not crazy to use CEH and Williams together in the hopes the Chiefs force-feed their backs in a mouthwatering matchup, especially with their defense humming lately.
Chargers Analysis: I alluded to Kansas City's defense stiffening up lately above. They've allowed more than 17 points to only one of their last eight opponents. Additionally, they've held three straight opponents to precisely nine points. Unfortunately, for Justin Herbert, the Chiefs' highest passing yardage total they yielded during their heater was 266 passing yards. Is Herbert good enough to buck Kansas City's defensive trend? Sure. However, like Mahomes, he isn't a must-use player even with his stellar season totals and recent blow-up performances. Having said that, I prefer Herbert to Mahomes when picking between both. Then again, I'm open to investing in the skill-position players on both teams and fading both quarterbacks -- which might be unique in GPPs given the skill level of the competing quarterbacks.
My favorite option from the Chargers is Austin Ekeler. He was an estimated limited participant in Monday's practice. However, Brandon Staley downplayed Ekeler's ankle injury in the wake of a blowout win, and Ekeler advanced to limited participation on Tuesday. Therefore, I'm confident he'll suit up. Ekeler's a do-it-all workhorse, sporting per game averages of 12.4 rush attempts, 56.2 rushing yards, 4.5 receptions, and 41.2 receiving yards, scoring 16 touchdowns. As a result, he's a game-script-proof stud.
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are the top dogs in the Chargers' passing game. Allen has been a model of consistency this year. Unfortunately, Williams endured a mid-season slump. However, he's snapped out of his funk. In the three games before Allen's absence on the Reserve/COVID-19 list in Week 14, Williams closed the team's top wideout gap. According to Pro Football Focus, Allen was second on the team in receiving yards (231), and touchdown receptions (two), and first in routes (128), targets (30), and receptions (21). Comparatively, Williams was tied for third in touchdowns (one), third in receptions (14), tied for second in targets (20), second in routes (127), and first in receiving yards (246). I slightly prefer using Williams at a discount on my lineup builds currently. Yet, I'm open to using both.
Jalen Guyton and Donald Parham Jr. are the ancillary options I like rather than Joshua Palmer and Jared Cook. Palmer stepped up in Allen's absence last week, but he ran behind field-stretcher Guyton before that. Finally, Cook has run 89 routes to only 35 for Parham from Week 11 through Week 13. However, they're both touchdown-or-bust picks with similar red-zone profiles. According to our red zone stats, Cook has four touchdowns on 11 targets inside the 20-yard line versus two on five targets for Parham. However, inside the 10-yard line, they've both been targeted precisely five times, resulting in three touchdowns for Cook and two for Parham. So, I'll take the steep discount for using Parham instead of overpaying for Cook for a touchdown-or-bust option.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.