Week 15 NFL DFS Digest (2021 Fantasy Football)

First, thank you if you’ve been reading this column since the beginning of the year. Second, you have likely noticed that I’ve whittled the featured player pool down as the season marches on. The more data the 2021 season provides us, the more conviction I have in a narrow collection of players I will use in daily fantasy contests. Therefore, I’m sharing a smaller listing of players in this space. Thankfully, my results in daily fantasy contests last week were the best of the 2021 season. So, if it’s not broken, why fix it? Finally, when I refer to a neutral game script or neutral score for Sharp Football Stats’ run and pass rates, I’m talking about an offensive scoring margin from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points.

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Week 15 Matchups

Game: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Spread: DAL -10.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Cowboys Analysis: The Cowboys' offense isn't the high-scoring juggernaut from earlier in the season. However, the defense is humming along. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys have forced the second-most turnovers (27), generated quarterback pressure at the fifth-highest rate (27.8%), and tied for the 13th-most sacks (31) this year. So, as double-digit favorites against Big Blue's pitiful offense, they're a high-upside GPP defense. According to our optimizer, the Dallas DST is the DST2 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the top value score at the latter this week.

Giants Analysis: Mike Glennon is starting for the Giants, and their offense stinks. As a result, they're an easy group to wholesale fade in daily fantasy contests.

Game: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: JAC -5.0 Points

Over/Under: 39.5 Points

Texans Analysis: Nico Collins is strictly a punt or pivot from Gabriel Davis in GPPs on DraftKings. Last week, the rookie wideout had his best game of the year, reeling in five of 10 targets for 69 yards. Fellow rookie Davis Mills is auditioning for a meaningful role on the rebuilding Texans, so the young duo's chemistry might keep improving down the stretch. At Collins' low salary, he doesn't have to do much this week to provide value for gamers that use him.

Jaguars Analysis: The Urban Meyer era is comically over already. As a result, it's uncertain how interim coach Darrell Bevell will deploy Jacksonville's offensive players. Nevertheless, Laquon Treadwell has been playing reasonably well lately. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers targeted at least eight times since Week 12, Treadwell has been 29th with 1.79 yards per route run (Y/RR). In addition, he has caught precisely four receptions in three straight games, posting receiving yardage totals of 53, 62, and 68. So, he's an acceptable punt on DraftKings as the WR11 in value score there.

Game: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: TEN -1.0 Point

Over/Under: 43.0 Points

Titans Analysis: The matchup is excellent for Tennessee's rushing attack. Unfortunately, they're using a full-blown running-back-by-committee approach. Therefore, I'm staying away from the only intriguing part of Tennessee's offense.

Steelers Analysis: According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans allow the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Thus, this is a mouthwatering matchup for target-hog Diontae Johnson. According to Sports Info Solutions, Johnson is 13th in Intended Air Yards (1,273) and seventh in target share (26.8%). The stud wideout's elite underlying numbers have resulted in per-game averages of 6.8 receptions and 82.5 receiving yards with six touchdowns. Understandably, Johnson is popping in our optimizer, ranking as the WR3 at both providers with the WR5 value score at DraftKings and WR3 value score at FanDuel. He's an elite option in all game types, suffice to say.

Game: Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

Spread: ARI -12.5 Points

Over/Under: 47.5 Points

Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals are a treasure trove of daily fantasy goodness in Week 15, evidenced by their main-slate high implied total. Kyler Murray's ceiling is bananas, as a genuinely great passer that has run for 120 yards and two touchdowns in Arizona's previous two games. He's averaging 278.2 passing yards and 26.7 rushing yards per game, passing for 19 touchdowns and rushing for five this year. The Lions are no match for the dual-threat superstar. According to Football Outsiders, the Lins are 30th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). As a result, Murray is our projected QB1 with a QB3 value score at both daily fantasy sites.

Christian Kirk and A.J. Green are my favorite stacking partners and standalone pass-catchers from the Cardinals. They both are getting a value boost with DeAndre Hopkins out. Both players have a big-play ability that's enhanced by facing the Lions. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Lions allow the third-highest average explosive pass rate (11%). Kirk has been a bit more productive than Green, starting with 1.93 Y/RR versus 1.74 Y/RR. However, Green just erupted for a 7-102-0 line on 10 targets and is equally capable of a big game. So, I view them as interchangeable. Finally, Green has the WR9 value score at DraftKings.

Unfortunately, the backfield situation is murky. James Conner isn't practicing this week with an ankle injury. So I won't use him unless he logs a full practice on Friday. Even then, I'm only considering him in GPPs thanks to his sky-high ceiling, eschewing concerns bout the risk of aggravating his ankle in the game, or ceding work to Chase Edmonds if he's back from the Injured Reserve. Conner has ripped off at least 64 scrimmage yards with multiple receptions and at least one touchdown in five straight games and six of seven. In addition, he scored a pair of touchdowns in the outlier during his heater as Arizona's bell-cow back. As a result, the optimizer is in love with him, projecting him as the RB2 with the top value score at both providers.

Lions Analysis: D'Andre Swift was fun racking up garbage-time stats earlier in the year. Unfortunately, he's not practicing. T.J. Hockenson is out for the year. So, the Lions' already dreadful offense will be without one of their top-two players and probably without both. You're unlikely to rue fading the Lions.

Game: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Spread: MIA -9.5 Points

Over/Under: 41.0 Points

Jets Analysis: Gang Green's offense is terrible. Michael Carter is returning but could be eased back into action. As a result, the only player of moderate interest on New York's offense is one I'll fade.

Dolphins Analysis: Jaylen Waddle has been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, narrowing the target tree in the process. Meanwhile, Miami's backfield is in disarray, with Myles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay, and Salvon Ahmed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list as well. Ergo, Miami might need to bump up their already pass-heavy tendency. The Dolphins pass at the third-highest rate (64%) in neutral scoring conditions, according to Sharp Football Stats.

Tua Tagovailoa has had a few stellar performances this year, passing for 329 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6, 291 yards and four touchdowns in Week 7, and 273 yards and two touchdowns against this week's opponent in Week 11. So, he's a nifty option on DraftKings as a value selection, where he has the highest value score among signal-callers.

Mike Gesicki has been underwhelming in his last six games. However, he has a high ceiling relative to his peers at tight end, even if he's essentially used as a jumbo wideout. According to Pro Football Focus, Gesicki has run only 25 routes inline compared to 147 wide and 306 from the slot. I probably won't use Gesicki as a one-off option. However, I like him in a stack with Tagovailoa and possibly a forthcoming receiver to round out a three-person stack.

Finally, DeVante Parker was already on my radar as one of my favorite value options at receiver before Waddle landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Now, he is in the mix for the receiver that will end up on the highest percentage of my rosters. In three games played with Tagovailoa starting and not leaving with an injury, Parker has had lines of 4-81-0, 8-85-0, and 5-62-0. The floor is rock-solid, and his ceiling is higher now, too. In addition, Parker's ceiling is elevated by facing the Jets. Gang Green is 32nd in pass defense DVOA. The physical wideout has the WR3 value score at DraftKings and the WR9 value score at FanDuel this week in a plum draw.

Game: Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: PHI -9.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Football Team Analysis: I advise forgiving Antonio Gibson for his poor showing last week. Unfortunately, J.D. McKissic is still in the NFL's concussion protocol. So, he's unlikely to play again this week, setting the stage for a rebound performance from Gibson. Before last week's dud, the second-year back compiled 430 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns on 95 rush attempts and 14 receptions in his previous four games. I called him one of my favorite backs on last week's slate, and he let me down. Maybe I'm tempting the fantasy football gods to spite me again, but he's one of my favorite backs on this week's slate, netting an RB6 with the RB3 value score at both daily fantasy outlets in Week 15.

Eagles Analysis: I'm only lukewarm on DeVonta Smith. However, he's an appealing run-back option in a game-stack with Gibson. Washington's defense is in a precarious position with tons of starters on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Further, they allow the fourth-most DraftKings points per game and third-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this year -- can you imagine how much they'll struggle with numerous reserves forced to start?

Game: Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

Spread: BUF -10.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Panthers Analysis: Carolina's offense is a roaring tire fire, playing musical chairs with Cam Newton and P.J. Walker, lacking an impact running back, and adjusting to the in-season firing of offensive coordinator Joe Brady. There's nothing to see or use here.

Bills Analysis: First, allow me to take an overarching approach to tout Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Dawson Knox. Allen's dealing with a foot sprain he discussed earlier this week. He doesn't appear to be in danger of missing this game. Second, Buffalo passes at the second-highest rate (67%) in neutral game scripts. Thus it's an offense that frequently bears fruit for top option Diggs and red-zone darling Knox. Allen projects as the QB2 with the QB4 value score at DraftKings and FanDuel, Diggs projects as the WR5 at both providers with the WR10 value score at FanDuel, and Dawson Knox projects as the TE3 at both sites with a TE6 value score at FanDuel.

Gabriel Davis -- who Allen discussed in the linked piece -- is the next-man-up for the Bills with Emmanuel Sanders banged up. This week he's my favorite sub-$4,000 DraftKings and sub-$5,000 FanDuel receiver. The second-year receiver blends downfield and red-zone usage, a dreamy combination. According to our red zone page, Davis has tied for 18th among receivers in targets inside the 20-yard line with 12. Also, per Sports Info Solutions, he has had an average depth of target of 11.9 yards downfield. So, he's a big play waiting to happen with a chance at increased usage ahead of him this week. Davis has the WR4 value score at DraftKings and WR23 value score at FanDuel for this week's main slate.

The Bills are commanding favorites this week. Sure, they've been averse to running the ball with their running backs this week. However, Allen is dinged up, and Carolina's run defense is putrid. The Panthers are 21st in rush defense DVOA, ceding the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs in 2021. Singletary has been Buffalo's most heavily-utilized back, even occasionally racking up multiple receptions. But, of course, his usage is relative, with a season-high for rush attempts of only 15. Still, that mark was set two weeks ago in a convincing win, providing hope for double-digit touches and providing value at his small salary. Singletary is the cheapest running back on my radar this week.

Finally, Buffalo's defense should tee off on Carolina's terrible offensive line. This season, Pro Football Focus has graded the Panthers as the second-worst pass-blocking team. Conversely, the Bills have the second-highest pressure rate (28.5), per Pro-Football-Reference. It's a match made in heaven for producing daily fantasy value, resulting in a DST4 projection at both sites with the top value score at DraftKings. They're a no-brainer pick in cash games at DraftKings.

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Spread: DEN -2.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Bengals Analysis: The Bengals' offense has been explosive at times this year, doing damage on the ground and through the air. Joe Mixon isn't a bulletproof back, often yielding passing-down work to Samaje Perine (230 routes for the former versus 135 for the latter). Still, he averages 2.2 receptions and 15.5 receiving yards per game, scoring two receiving touchdowns. More importantly, he makes hay on the ground. Mixon has had the sixth-most rushing yards per game (79.7), splashing pay dirt a dozen times. The matchup is good for him to show out, facing Denver's defense that's 25th in rush defense DVOA. Mixon is projected as the RB3 at DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

The passing game doesn't have the most imposing matchup, either. Denver is 19th in pass defense DVOA. Joe Burrow is putting together a rock-solid sophomore campaign, ranking 11th in passing yards per game (267.9) and eighth in touchdown passes (25). This week he's most attractive at DraftKings, sporting the QB5 value score there.

Burrow will huck the pigskin to one of the game's top one-two punches at receiver. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are great. They are both projected to finish inside the top-10 receivers at each daily fantasy site. Chase is seventh in receiving yards per game (79.6), and Higgins isn't far behind at 14th (73.8). Furthermore, Chase is tied for third in touchdown receptions (10).

Finally, the defense is a steal on FanDuel, with the DST4 value score. I explicitly highlighted them as one of my top-five value plays on FanDuel in Week 15 for numberFire.

Broncos Analysis: Unfortunately, Javonte Williams still shares Denver's backfield with Melvin Gordon III. Still, I'm encouraged by his passing-game ascension since Denver's Week 11 bye. In Week 12 and Week 14, Williams ran 29 routes versus only 15 for Gordon, with Gordon active. The veteran has the edge with 41 rush attempts to 29 for Williams on the ground. Regardless, Williams' passing-game usage elevates his floor, and his elite tackle-breaking ability fuels upside on his handful of rush attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 43 running backs with at least 100 rush attempts, Williams is fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.59 YCO/A) and first in missed tackles forced (53). Our optimizer projects an RB9 finish at both sites, with an RB6 value score and RB8 value score at DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

Game: Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: SF -9.5 Points

Over/Under: 46.0 Points

Falcons Analysis: Cordarrelle Patterson's magical 2021 season is one of my favorite storylines. He's a slate-breaking talent thanks to his dynamism as a runner and pass-catcher, evidenced by surpassing 50 yards as a rusher six times and eclipsing 50 yards receiving five times, combining his rushing and receiving work for 10 touchdowns. Among running backs, C-Patt has been fifth in targets (57) and receptions (46), second in receiving yards (519), and tied for second in touchdown receptions (five). The converted receiver hasn't been a slouch as a runner, either. Patterson is eighth out of 43 running backs with at least 100 rush attempts in yards after contact per attempt (3.31 YCO/A). As a result, his well-rounded contributions are responsible for him ranking as RB4 at both sites with the RB4 value score on FanDuel.

Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts snapped out of a multi-week lull for an encouraging 61 receiving yards on five receptions. I like the rookie tight end's matchup this week when viewing him through the lens of a wideout. Pitts has played 79.0% of his passing snaps from the slot or wide. That's great this week since the 49ers get beaten up by wide receivers, allowing the 12th-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to them. Unfortunately, Pitts has gone seven weeks without a blow-up game, following back-to-back excellent showings in Week 5 and Week 7. Thus, I think the timing is right to hop on him as a possible contrarian GPP pick in this matchup.

49ers Analysis: The 49ers will probably face little resistance through the air or on the ground. The Falcons are 23rd in rush defense DVOA and 29th in pass defense DVOA. Unfortunately, Elijah Mitchell's status is in question. He's still in the concussion protocol, albeit reportedly working off to the side, lending hope to a return this week. The speed merchant rookie is fifth in rushing yards per game (84.3), emerging as a modest contributor as a pass-catcher recently, too. I have no reservations about using him if he's active. Instead, I'll actively jam him into lineups if he clears the NFL's concussion protocol. The optimizer projects at RB5 finish at DraftKings and FanDuel with an RB4 value score at the former.

George Kittle is a cheat code at tight end. He's reached pay dirt in five of six games since returning from the IR. In addition, Kittle has clowned back-to-back opponents, torching the Seahawks for a 9-181-2 line and the Bengals for a 13-151-1 line. He's the no-doubt top tight end on this slate and has a matching value score at FanDuel. Finally, feel free to treat him like a receiver and deploy him in the flex in two-tight-end roster builds, as his salary is light compared to receivers with comparable upside.

Brandon Aiyuk's bizarre stay in the doghouse to open the year is a thing of the past. He has had 85 or more receiving yards or a touchdown in four of his last six games. Furthermore, he hit both benchmarks in two of those games.

Finally, Jimmy Garoppolo is the beneficiary of a trio of stud pass-catchers, including the discussed Kittle and Aiyuk duo, as well as Swiss Army Knife Deebo Samuel. He just has to get the ball in his dynamic playmakers' hands and let them do the work. As a result, I'm drawn to stacking him with Kittle or Aiyuk -- or both -- as an affordable, high-upside play that doubles as salary-cap friendly.

Game: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: GB -5.5 Points

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

Packers Analysis: Davante Adams is an unstoppable superstar. He's one of only two receivers averaging at least 100 receiving yards per game. Predictably, he's a darling of the optimizer, projecting as the WR2 at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the WR2 value at the former and the WR1 value at the latter. He's an excellent selection in all game types.

Aaron Rodgers is playing through a toe injury, but you can't tell by his on-field play. In the last three games, he's carved up the opposition for 385 passing yards, four touchdowns, 307 passing yards, two touchdowns, 341 passing yards, and four touchdowns. Obviously, Rodgers is equipped to carve up an injury-depleted Ravens' secondary that's 26th in pass defense DVOA. The optimizer agrees, projecting him as the QB3 at both sites with the top value score at FanDuel.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Josiah Deguara are ancillary passing-game options I have varying degrees of interest in. MVS is someone that I discussed as a season-long sleeper. Still, my analysis carries over to daily fantasy, making him a boom-or-bust pick worth consideration at his modest salary. Further, I analyzed Deguara as a useful season-long streamer at tight end, and he is the only tight end punt I'm remotely interested in. However, it's unlikely I'll use him as a standalone pick. Instead, if I use him, it will probably be as the third member of a three-person stack with Rodgers and Adams.

Speaking of stacks, AJ Dillon and the Packers DST can pay off for gamers that stack them together. In the last three games in which Dillon has shared Green Bay's backfield with Aaron Jones, Dillon has rushed the ball 56 times for 206 yards versus only 22 attempts for 83 yards for Jones. There's potential for the Packers blowing out the Ravens against either a hobbled Lamar Jackson or backup Tyler Huntley. A good game script would allow Dillon to tote the rock.

In addition, a good game script would open the door for the Packers pinning their ears back against Baltimore in obvious passing downs. Green Bay is eighth in turnovers forced (22) and in the middle of the pack with 30 sacks. Their upside is bolstered by facing Jackson or Huntley. Jackson has taken sacks at the third-highest rate (9.0%) among qualified quarterbacks, and Hutley's taken sacks at an even higher rate (9.6%). Moreover, each quarterback puts the ball in harm's way regularly. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Jackson has tied for the ninth-highest turnover-worthy-play rate (3.6 TWP%), and Huntley's been more careless (4.0 TWP%). As a result, the optimizer projects the Packers as the DST5 this week.

Ravens Analysis: As I mentioned above, Baltimore's offense will be led by a hurting Jackson or backup Huntley. So, I expect the offense to struggle mightily.

Game: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: LAR -5.5 Points

Over/Under: 45.0 Points

Seahawks Analysis: I wrote about Rashaad Penny as one of my five favorite FanDuel value picks for numberFire earlier this week. He blew up last week, rushing for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Now, I'm even higher on Penny. Last week, Alex Collins handled seven rush attempts. This week, he's on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.

Rams Analysis: Let's close the show with a couple of receivers I'm using in Week 15. Cooper Kupp is the class of the wide receiver position this year, leading the NFL in receptions per game (8.7), receiving yards per game (114.5), and touchdown receptions (12). So, unsurprisingly, we are projecting a WR1 finish this week, with the WR1 value at DraftKings and WR2 value at FanDuel.

Van Jefferson Jr. is also an excellent option in the middle-tier. The second-year receiver is on a three-game streak for reaching pay dirt, posting yardage totals of 93, 41, and 58 in those contests. He also probably won't have to jostle with Odell Beckham Jr. for targets, as OBJ is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. As a result, Jefferson is the WR14 in our projections, sporting an identical WR8 value score at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.