Week 14 Thursday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Steelers at Vikings)

The Steelers and Vikings are coming off polar opposite Week 13 showings. First, the Steelers gutted out a win they needed to stay in the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Vikings collapsed, awarding the Lions their first win in 2021. Regardless, they’re both inconsistent, setting up an unpredictable matchup for Thursday Night Football. Still, we can parse through the stats to make the best daily fantasy selections. Below, I highlight my favorite Thursday Night Football selections.

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Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: MIN -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

Steelers Analysis: Ben Roethlisberger has played his best football in 2021 of late. But, of course, that's relative. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games. But, unfortunately, he's bested 250 passing yards in only one of those multi-touchdown efforts. Further, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings are 13th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Couple Big Ben's mediocrity with a mediocre matchup, and I'm content with fading him.

Instead, Najee Harris is my favorite option on the Steelers. The Vikings are much more giving on the ground, ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA. The rookie running back is a workhorse that rarely leaves the field. According to our snap counts, he played a staggering 97% of the offensive snaps in Week 13 and led running backs with an 84% offensive snap share for the year. Harris is doing it all, too. He's averaging 64.9 rushing yards, 4.8 receptions, and 32.3 receiving yards per game, scoring seven touchdowns. Therefore, he's game-script proof, enhancing his appeal for this single-game slate.

Also, just because I'm fading Big Ben doesn't mean I'm fading Pittsburgh's entire passing attack. Diontae Johnson is the headliner for the Steelers' passing game. According to Sports Info Solutions, Johnson is sixth in target share (26.9%) and 12th in Intended Air Yards (1,187). He's converted his elite usage into 6.9 receptions and 83.1 receiving yards per game, and six touchdowns. In addition, Johnson has been a model of consistency in 2021, catching five or more passes 10 times, besting 70 receiving yards nine times, and scoring at least a touchdown in five games. Moreover, he's hit at least one of those benchmarks in every game.

Chase Claypool is also an attractive option as a downfield threat against a defense coughing up explosive passes of late. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 11, Claypool has had an average depth of target of 16.7 yards downfield. Meanwhile, according to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 5, Minnesota allows the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate (10%).

Pat Freiermuth is the next man-up in the pecking order. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 11, he has been second on the team in touchdown receptions (two), third in routes (78), receptions (11), and receiving yards (77), and fourth in targets (14). Freiermuth's numbers are a mixed bag, but I'm less inclined to use him on this slate because of a challenging matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Minnesota allows the eighth-fewest DraftKings and ninth-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends.

Finally, Ray-Ray McLoud III is a usable punt. Last week, he was tied for second on the team in routes (22). Sure, he didn't do much, hauling in only one of three targets for seven scoreless yards. Still, the matchup is quite nice. Minnesota allows the most DraftKings and second-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts this year.

Vikings Analysis: Minnesota's injury report features a trio of notable players. First, rookie tackle Christian Darrisaw and wide receiver Adam Thielen haven't participated in practice. Second, however, running back Dalvin Cook logged limited participation on Tuesday. I'm operating under the assumption Thielen will miss this game with his ankle sprain. Cook's limited participation cracks the door for a surprising return. Still, if he's back, I'm skeptical of a return to his regular bell-cow role.

So, Alexander Mattison is the only back listed in the table. Further, I'm only interested in him if Cook is out again. In three starts this year, Mattison has operated as a bell-cow back. He's totaled 73 rush attempts, 315 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 18 targets, 16 receptions, 133 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. Mattison is an excellent selection in a plus matchup if Cook is out. The Steelers are 24th in rush defense DVOA.

The passing game has a favorable matchup, too. Pittsburgh is 25th in pass defense DVOA. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent year. He is seventh in passing yards per game (279.4) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (25). As a result, he's a rock-solid pick on this slate.

Still, Justin Jefferson is my favorite piece of exposure to Minnesota's passing attack. He is tied for ninth in target share (26.3%), eighth in receptions per game (6.5), second in receiving yards per game (100.8), and first in Intended Air Yards (1,465). Moreover, his elite production might be cranked up even higher, with Thielen likely out. The second-year receiver set season-highs last week after Thielen's early exit with 14 targets, 11 receptions, and 182 receiving yards.

Assuming Thielen is out, Tyle Conklin, K.J. Osborn, and Dede Westbrook are positioned to see more work. Last week, Osborn was second on the Vikings in routes (43) and third in targets (seven), receptions (four), and receiving yards (47). Conklin was third in routes (36). However, he was second in targets (nine), receptions (seven), and receiving yards (56). Finally, Westbrook was targeted only two times. Still, his 27 routes were fifth behind Jefferson, Osborn, Conklin, and Mattison, giving him punt appeal. It's basically a coin flip between Osborn and Conklin for the best option among this trio. However, the scale tilts in Osborn's favor because of the matchup. The Steelers allow the 10th-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh allows the ninth-fewest DraftKings and 10th-fewest FanDuel points per game.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.