Week 14 Monday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Rams at Cardinals)

The Rams and Cardinals meet for the second time this year tonight. The Cardinals won handily on the road in Week 4. Now, they’re small favorites at home for the rematch. However, on this single-game slate, the fantasy landscape for the opponents is drastically different. The Rams have a highly concentrated offense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have many options to spread the wealth to.

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Game: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: ARI -2.5 Points

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

Rams Analysis: The Rams are a top-heavy offense. Cooper Kupp is the cream of the crop on the offense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he is first in receptions per game (8.3), receiving yards per game (113.8), and receiving touchdowns (11). Predictably, his advanced metrics are elite as well. Per Sports Info Solutions, Kupp is 14th in Intended Air Yards (1,168), first in target share (31.1%), and yards after the catch (619). Moreover, according to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 players targeted at least 30 times this year, Kupp is second with 3.03 yards per route run (Y/RR). As a result, he's my co-favorite core player on this single-game slate.

The man slinging Kupp the pigskin is a stellar selection, too. Matthew Stafford hasn't been infallible in his first year with Sean McVay. Still, he's third in passing yards per game (300.9), second in touchdown passes (30), and first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (8.05 ANY/A). Stafford might be asked to air it out a bunch in a projected shootout in which the Rams are slight underdogs.

The other pass-catching options that are worth a look are receivers Van Jefferson Jr. and Odell Beckham Jr, in that order. In the Rams' previous three games, Jefferson has been second in routes (119), targets (23), receptions (12), and receiving yards (188), tying for the team lead with two touchdowns. Meanwhile, OBJ has been fourth in routes (73), tied for third in receptions (nine), third in targets (17), and receiving yards (127), and tied for first in touchdown receptions (two). Finally, Tyler Higbee is a non-option, running many routes but failing to earn targets.

Sony Michel is the other player I'm interested in on the Rams. He's my second-favorite option on the team as a presumptive bell-cow back with Darrell Henderson Jr. on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. In two starts this year, he has toted the rock 44 times for 188 yards and a touchdown, bolstering his production with six receptions for 20 yards on eight targets. But, finally, Michel isn't an explosive back. Still, he'll have a chance for chunk plays against the Cardinals. According to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 5, Arizona has allowed the second-highest average explosive run rate (16%).

Cardinals Analysis: Kyler Murray made a triumphant return from a three-game absence last week. He only needed to air it out 15 times in an easy win. Still, encouragingly, he made the most of those opportunities and showcased his rushing ability. Murray accounted for four touchdowns (two passing and two rushing), 123 passing yards, and 59 rushing yards. The dual-threat quarterback is balling out this year, ranking ninth in passing yards per game (266.6), second in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (7.94 ANY/A), and first in passing touchdown percentage (7.0%). But, of course, he's also adding value on the ground, averaging 22.9 rushing yards per game with five scores. As a result, he's my co-favorite core player along with the previously discussed Kupp.

Murray successfully spreads the ball around to his pass-catchers, hence the jam-packed table with defensible selections. Unfortunately, DeAndre Hopkins' production suffers from Murray using all of his weapons. In fact, Nuk's 13.2% target share is the lowest mark of his career by 10.2%. Thus, I'm fading him.

Meanwhile, Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore cut into one another's playing time, mostly rotating slot duties. Nevertheless, they all have cases for usage with modest average target depths against a team that suppresses explosive passing plays. Also, Moore occasionally receives touches as a runner. So, I'm intrigued by him as a punt option.

Unfortunately, A.J. Green's vertical usage isn't an ideal fit against the Rams. Still, he has been used mainly on the perimeter, tying for the team's highest percentage of passing snaps aligned wide (90.6%). Therefore, he's not fighting for snaps in the slot with Kirk, Ertz, and Moore. In addition, he was good in the first matchup against the Rams, securing five of six targets for 67 yards and a touchdown.

Finally, the running back situation needs to be monitored. Chase Edmonds is a game-time decision for tonight's game. If Edmonds is out, James Conner will be a bell-cow and attractive option, despite a challenging matchup. However, I'm fading him if Edmonds is active. Edmonds is a superior pass-catching option, making him a viable option against a defense more challenging against backs as rushers than receivers. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams are second in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they are mid-pack in receptions yielded to running backs. Therefore, if Edmonds reprises his receiving-back portion of a backfield split with Conner, he'll have the easier path to success.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.