The Chiefs are coming out of their bye for a Sunday Night Football showdown with the division-rival Broncos. The game’s spread suggests this will be a lopsided win for the host Chiefs. Further, they seemed to find their footing before their bye. However, will the bye derail their momentum against the erratic Broncos? Below, I analyze both teams, hoping to unearth the top single-game slate options.
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Game: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: The matchup looks great for Teddy Bridgewater at a cursory glance. Unfortunately, it's likely to be a tricky draw since Kansas City's no longer the roaring tire fire they were earlier this year. Yes, according to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are 21st in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Still, according to Pro-Football-Reference, they've allowed under 250 passing yards in five of six games since Week 6. In the outlier, they coughed up only 266 passing yards. Thus, while Bridgewater is a defensible play because he's a starting quarterback on a single-game slate, he's not a must-use player.
Further, Courtland Sutton is a fade with his numbers tanking when Denver's at full strength. According to Pro Football Focus, in Wek 1, Week 8, Week 10, and Week 12, when Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and Albert Okwuegbunam played together, Sutton was first in routes (118). Unfortunately, he has had only 13 targets, seven receptions, and 100 receiving yards in those contests. In addition, his average depth of target of 12.7 yards downfield won't do him any favors this week. According to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 6, the Chiefs are mid-pack in average explosive pass rate (eight percent) allowed.
I'm not crazy about Jeudy or Patrick, either. When Denver's had all of their horses, Jeudy has led in targets (22), receptions (18), and receiving yards (184). Patrick has had 16 targets, 12 receptions, 143 yards, and one touchdown. If you have the cap space, Jeudy is the better selection. Nevertheless, the matchup is below-average. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chiefs allow the 11th-fewest Draftkings and 13th-fewest FanDuel points per game to wideouts.
If you hone in on the pass-catchers, tight ends Fant and Okwuegbunam are my favorite options, factoring in the salary discounts they provide. With all of Denver's top pass-catchers on the field, Fant has been second in targets (21) and receptions (16) and third in receiving yards (141). Meanwhile, Okwuegbunam has made the most of his limited role, ripping off 2.62 yards per route run (Y/RR). The second-year tight end has also hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown in this sample of games. Finally, the Chiefs allow the seventh-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Perhaps I'm burying the lede, but Javonte Williams is my favorite option on the Broncos. Yes, obviously, they're sizable underdogs. And that's not ideal for the game script for Williams. Still, Melvin Gordon is doubtful, paving the way to a possible workhorse role for the electrifying rookie running back. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Williams is sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.57 YCO/A) and second in missed tackles forced (42). So the Broncos should lean on him heavily as long as the game remains close if they hope to spring the upset.
Finally, Mike Boone isn't a crazy pick. Denver has had success using a two-headed running back attack. I don't think Boone will scoop up all of Gordon's vacated work. Still, a 60/40% split is within the realm of possibility. The veteran undrafted running back has averaged a whopping 5.3 yards per rush attempt on 71 career attempts, flashing outright dominance in a Week 17 start in 2019, rumbling for 148 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, adding two receptions for 12 yards for good measure.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs continue to run through their Big Three of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. First, Mahomes is fifth in passing yards per game (290.9) and tied for third in touchdown passes (25). Second, Hill is fifth in receiving yards per game (84.7), and Kelce is 12th (74.6). Unsurprisingly, they're hogging targets. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hill is tied for fourth in target share (28.2%), and Kelce is 23rd (22.3%). Therefore, they've combined for more than half of Kansas City's targets. In addition, Hill leads the NFL in Intended Air Yards (1,326). Therefore, I prioritize using all three players together. Thankfully, it's not difficult to use them and Williams from the Broncos.
Byron Pringle has ascended to the third option in the passing attack. In Kansas City's previous two games, Pringle's 63 routes trail only Hill's 81 and Kelce's 77. Further, he was fourth in targets (seven), receptions (five), and receiving yards (83), adding a touchdown. Are they jaw-dropping numbers? Of course not. Still, they're acceptable at his bargain salary.
Surprisingly, Darrel Williams was third in targets (12), receptions (10), and receiving yards (112) in those contests, also hauling in a touchdown reception. Of course, Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned last week. In his return, CEH more than doubled Williams' carries, toting the rock 12 times versus only five for his backup. He also held a commanding lead in rushing yards with 63 to only 15. In addition, CEH hauled in both of his targets for 13 yards.
However, a look under the hood is less convincing for CEH dominating the backfield. In fact, according to our snap counts, Williams played 53% of the snaps versus only 47% for CEH. Additionally, Williams ran 25 routes, and CEH ran only 15. Finally, the second-year back missed practice on Friday with the stomach flu. CEH is expected to play, but it's yet another reason to fade him.
Further, it supports using Williams even if CEH suits up, as Williams could snag additional work if CEH feels less than 100%. As a result, Williams looks like a steal on DraftKings. And, if CEH surprisingly doesn't suit up, he's a rock-solid option on FanDuel.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
