The Patriots and Bills square off an in important AFC East battle. Both teams are vying for the division lead. However, it’s unwise to expect an offensive shootout. The game’s total has dipped from 44.5 points to 41.0 points. Both defenses are great. However, the weather is likely the more significant factor for the total drop. According to The Weather Channel forecast, winds will reach more than 20 mph during game time. As a result, my favorite picks are catered to the weather conditions.
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Game: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: Spoiler alert, both defenses, and kickers are featured in this piece. Instead of diving into them all too deep, I'll quickly summarize my tepid interest here. The game's projected windy conditions set the table for a potentially ugly, low-scoring game. According to Football Outsider, the Patriots are second in total defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and the Bills are first in total defense DVOA. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Patriots allow the third-fewest yards per play (5.1), generate quarterback pressure at the ninth-highest rate (26.6%), and tie for the second-most turnovers forced (25). Meanwhile, the Bills allow the fewest yards per play (4.6), generate quarterback pressure at the highest rate (30.2%), and tie for the second-most turnovers (25). So, both defenses are elite in every measure.
The Patriots might also opt to take the ball out of Mac Jones' hands as much as possible tonight, leaning on the one-two punch of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Fortunately, they're generally inclined to run the ball anyway. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, New England runs at the 11th-highest rate (47% versus 45% for the league average).
Unfortunately, the backfield has devolved into a three-back committee. In New England's previous two games, Harris and Stevenson have rushed the ball precisely 21 times each. According to Pro Football Focus, Harris has turned his carries into 96 yards and four missed tackles forced, 2.43 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A), four runs of 10-plus yards, and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Stevenson turned his 21 carries into 115 yards, with four missed tackles forced, 3.95 YCO/A, and five runs of 10-plus yards. However, Brandon Bolden is the receiving back, running 27 routes in Week 11 and Week 12 versus 26 routes for Harris and Stevenson combined. So, if you think New England will play from behind, Bolden is the best bet in the backfield to score points as the pass-catching specialist. I think the game will be in a neutral game script for the bulk of the game, so I'm inclined to use Harris at FanDuel, and Stevenson at a steep discount at DraftKings. However, using both backs is a viable strategy as well.
Changing gears to the passing attack, Jones loves to spread the ball around. As a result, he's the safest option in the passing game. However, I'm not crazy about paying up for him under these conditions. As for the pass-catchers, according to Pro Football Focus, in New England's last four games with all of their pass-catchers healthy (i.e., tossing out Week 10 when Jonnu Smith was inactive), Jakobi Meyer was first in routes (119), Hunter Henry was third (81), Kendrick Bourne was fourth (80), and Smith was sixth (40).
However, Bourne was the most efficient, with a whopping 2.19 yards per route run (Y/RR). He has also hauled in two touchdowns, and his shallow average depth of target of only 4.7 yards downfield is optimal for circumventing the windy conditions. Smith is also a good theoretical play from a shallow target depth perspective at only 5.1 yards downfield. But, of course, his distance from the top for routes is alarming, lowering his floor. Henry's also intriguing based on his red zone usage. According to our red zone data, Henry has scored four touchdowns on seven targets inside the 10-yard line.
Bills Analysis: One distinct significant difference between Jones and Josh Allen is the latter's top-shelf running ability. He's rushing for 34.8 yards per game, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll explicitly calls designed runs for his tough-to-tackle signal-caller. But, obviously, he adds value passing, too. Allen is eighth in passing yards per game (279.2) and tied for third in passing touchdowns (25).
Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs is his top option. According to Sports Info Solutions, Diggs is tied for 13th in target share (25.3%) and fourth in Intended Air Yards (1,235). He's turning his excellent underlying numbers into 6.1 receptions and 77.0 receiving yards per game, and seven touchdowns. Finally, in Buffalo's last three games, he's first on the team in routes (92), targets (28), receptions (19), receiving yards (259), and touchdowns (four).
Dawson Knox is my second-favorite option in Buffalo's passing attack. Additionally, he's my favorite pick on DraftKings, salary considered. In Week 10 through Week 12, he was second on the team in routes (91) and targets (14), and third in receptions (10) and receiving yards (129). Also, the third-year tight end is another fit for the windy conditions, sporting an average depth of target of only 5.8 yards downfield in this three-game sample.
Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are tertiary passing attack options. Between the two, I prefer Beasley with only a 5.3-yard average depth of target versus a 9.3-yard average depth of target since Week 10.
Finally, Buffalo's running game might have success tonight. First, New England's run defense is more giving than its pass defense, evidenced by ranking second in pass defense DVOA and 10th in rush defense DVOA. Second, according to Football Outsiders, the Bills are 10th in Adjusted Line Yards. Also, starting linemen Spencer Brown and Jon Feliciano return this week after missing time on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and with an injury.
In addition, Buffalo's drastically altered their offense lately. From Week 1 through Week 9, when the offensive scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, Buffalo passed at an NFL-high 67% clip. Since Week 10, they have passed at a 64% rate. Additionally, they've notably altered their personnel groupings. According to Sharp Football Stats, from Week 1 through Week 9, the Bills used a fullback or two tight ends on only 14% of their plays. Since Week 10, they're using a fullback or two tight ends on 17% of their plays.
Zack Moss has been phased out of the equation, leaving Devin Singletary to play the most snaps and Matt Breida to carve out a valuable change-of-pace role. Since Week 10, Singletary has had 25 rush attempts for 104 yards and a touchdown, running 45 routes and securing five receptions for 36 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Breida has had 17 rush attempts for 105 yards and a touchdown, running 24 routes, and hauled in six receptions for 67 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Breida's the more explosive player, so he's capable of doing more with less. Also, his better play than Singletary may allow him to even the playing time discrepancy. Nevertheless, I'm intrigued by using both backs, even possibly together. It's a gut feeling, but given Buffalo's recent offensive trends and the weather conditions, they might show the Patriots a wrinkle, using their running attack more than we've seen to this point in the 2021 season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
