The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)


Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 38.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Saints 22.5, Panthers 16

Quarterbacks

Cam Newton or Sam Darnold: Does it really make much of a difference at this point which QB is starting for the Panthers? It’s not good either way and we cannot trust either Newton or Darnold in our starting lineups. Matt Rhule has continued to rotate through QBs in-game in an attempt to find a spark for the offense, which means that even in Superflex leagues, starting either option is very risky.

Taysom Hill: Hill was forced to miss Week 16 due to landing on the COVID list, but there’s the possibility that he’s cleared in time for this matchup on Sunday. If Hill does play, he’s worth considering for your starting lineup due to his rushing ability. The Panthers are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, so the upside might not be there for Hill to have a massive performance, but with so many other QBs struggling to make much of a high-level impact for fantasy football recently, Hill’s a solid floor play as a high-end QB2.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard: Did you know that Hubbard was the leading rusher at the RB position last week for the Panthers with 9 yards? He averaged 1.5 YPA and did absolutely nothing of note from a fantasy perspective. With this offense cratering in recent weeks, Hubbard’s not on the redraft radar anymore.

Alvin Kamara: With the Saints’ offense struggling to move the ball through the air much in Week 16, Kamara’s production certainly did not live up to expectations. He totaled just 59 yards of offense and that involved a long run of 19 yards. He was bottled up consistently behind the line of scrimmage and was barely featured in the passing game, which is where he makes the majority of his impact. Looking ahead to Week 17, the Saints should have Taysom Hill back behind center, which will open things back up a bit for Kamara and this offense. Against a defense that’s allowing 101.6 rushing yards per game to the position this season, Kamara can be viewed as a mid-range RB1.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore: It was encouraging to see Moore end last week’s contest with 11 targets, which would normally lead to top-tier fantasy production with his talent level, but this offense is held back by the abysmal QB play. We should see Moore finish with a significant target share again this week against the Saints secondary, but we can’t trust that to turn into anything more than mid-range WR3 production.

Robby Anderson: Anderson has started to turn things around here recently from a fantasy perspective. After being essentially forgotten about in leagues across the spectrum, he’s now finished as a top-36 WR each of the past three weeks and he has an impressive 30 targets over that time frame. While Anderson’s starting to get the job done again for fantasy football, that doesn’t mean that we should be rushing out to plug him back into our starting lineups in championship week. He can be viewed as a FLEX option in deeper formats that should provide a safe floor, but there is virtually no upside with the speedy receiver due to the QB play.

Marquez Callaway: Callaway was able to provide a solid floor again in Week 16, despite the QB downgrade, and he’s now finished as a top-36 WR in back-to-back weeks. With that being said, we still cannot trust him in our starting lineups as anything more than a low-end FLEX option. He’ll see plenty of targets, but a tougher matchup dictates that we should probably look elsewhere for championship week.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Chargers 26.25, Broncos 19.75

Quarterbacks

Drew Lock: As we kick off the week, it appears as though Teddy Bridgewater is in danger of missing this next contest as well due to concussion protocol. This puts Lock in line to start again in Week 17, which is a significant downgrade to all of the receiving weapons in this Broncos offense. Last week against the Raiders, Lock completed 15-of-22 passes for just 153 yards. He had zero interceptions, but no touchdowns, and the offense failed to make much of an impact on the field. Against the Chargers defense this week, Lock’s nothing more than a desperation play in Superflex leagues.

Justin Herbert: Herbert was in a smash spot this past week against the Texans, but the Chargers’ offense sputtered in what turned out to be the most shocking upset of the week. The Texans knocked off the Chargers 41-29 and Los Angeles simply looked shell-shocked, but it still resulted in a top-5 fantasy finish for Herbert due to his talent. Against the Broncos in Week 17, we should see a more prepared and ready Chargers team and Herbert belongs right back in starting lineups as an automatic start. The Broncos are allowing just the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this year, but we know that Herbert has the ability to succeed in any matchup.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: It wasn’t pretty out there last week for the Broncos’ RBs, but Williams was able to save his fantasy day by finding the end zone. Williams had just 12 yards rushing on seven attempts in Week 16 against a very beatable Raiders run defense. With little to no threat to move the ball through the air though, the Raiders were able to key in and focus on stopping Williams and Gordon and it worked. Looking ahead to Week 17 though, we should see this running game rebound against the defense that just allowed 28 Half PPR fantasy points to Rex Burkhead. Williams can be started as a low-end RB2 with upside if Lock can force safeties to back off the line of scrimmage even the slightest bit.

Melvin Gordon: It’s not every day that you see an NFL RB get 7 carries in a game and finish with negative rushing yardage, but that’s what happened to Gordon this past week against Las Vegas. On 7 rush attempts, Gordon finished with -4 yards and he was only able to finish with zero total yards due to a four-yard reception. The offense struggled mightily in Week 16, but we should see some signs of life this next week against the Chargers run defense that is allowing 119.2 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. It’s a bit of a risky play, but if you need to start Gordon as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, you can.

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler was forced to miss this past week’s contest due to landing on the COVID list, but all signs point to him being cleared in time for Week 17 against the Broncos. Denver is a stingy defense when it comes to shutting down opposing RBs from a fantasy perspective, but we’ve already seen Ekeler gash this defense this season to the tune of 19 Half PPR points. If Ekeler is back and active for Week 17, he’s locked into your starting lineup as a mid-range RB1.

Justin Jackson: Jackson was able to step in last week in place of Ekeler and he helped carry fantasy managers to the next round of their playoffs with a monstrous performance. Against Houston, Jackson carried the ball 11 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns, while adding eight receptions and 98 yards through the air. While Ekeler is likely to be back for this matchup against the Broncos, Jackson should remain involved enough in the offense to warrant FLEX consideration. It’s unlikely he’ll see enough work to push him into the top-24 at the RB position, but he can be viewed as a low-end RB3.

Wide Receivers

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy was able to lead the Broncos in receiving this past week, but that didn’t exactly equate to top-tier fantasy production. Jeudy had just four targets and he reeled in three of them for 60 yards. That mark was the fourth highest receiving yardage total that Jeudy has recorded this entire season, which tells you how this season has gone for the talented wideout. At this point, he can’t be trusted as anything more than a low-end WR3 in championship week. Update: Jeudy has been placed on the COVID list and is out for Sunday.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton was able to record his highest receiving yardage total since Week 8 this past week against the Raiders! However, that was just 33 yards, which illustrates how frustrating the 2021 campaign has been for the dynamic receiver. At this point of the season, Sutton shouldn’t be anywhere near starting lineups.

Keenan Allen: The entire Chargers offense – aside from Justin Jackson – struggled in Week 16 against the Texans. Allen was in a prime situation to explode for a big performance, but it simply didn’t happen as he ended up with just a 4-35-0 stat line. Against Denver this week, Allen should draw coverage from Bryce Callahan who is back and healthy, which is a tougher individual matchup. Allen still deserves to be started as a high-end WR2 due to his high floor, but he just might not have ridiculous upside in this one.

Josh Palmer: Palmer was an intriguing FLEX option this past week against Houston and he came through for fantasy managers that started him by finding the end zone. The future is bright for the young wideout and he could be a key part of this offense in 2022. With the uncertainty right now regarding Mike Williams‘ status for Week 17, it’s hard to slot Palmer into our starting lineups. If Williams misses this week, Palmer can be started as a low-end FLEX option in a tough matchup due to the volume he should see here.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: It’s been tough sledding for Fant recently from a production standpoint. He has not topped 10 Half PPR fantasy points since all the way back in Week 6 and he’s been a massive disappointment for fantasy managers that spent a mid-round pick on him all the way back in August. Looking ahead to Week 17, the Chargers are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, but it’s going to come down to whether or not Drew Lock can move the ball enough to take advantage of the matchup for Fant. He can be viewed as a high-end TE2.

Jared Cook: Cook landed on the COVID-19 list on Friday and won’t play Sunday against the Broncos. Stephen Anderson will be the Chargers’ top available tight end, but he isn’t fantasy-viable even in an expanded role.

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: 49ers -12.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: 49ers 28.25, Texans 15.75

Quarterbacks

Davis Mills: Mills has started to develop nicely here for the Texans recently and he’s showing flashes of why they drafted him in the third round of this past draft. Unfortunately, that’s still not equating to much fantasy production and we shouldn’t be looking his way this week as anything more than a low-end QB2 against San Francisco.

Trey Lance: Lance is likely to get the nod as the starting QB here for San Francisco this week with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with an injury. If Lance does get the start, he is absolutely worth considering for starting lineups in 1QB leagues due to his rushing upside. In his first start earlier this season, Lance rushed the ball 16 times for 89 yards on the ground and was inches away from finding the end zone that would’ve vaulted him into the top-12 at the position on the week. Against the Texans defense this week, assuming that Jimmy G is unable to suit up, Lance is a solid start as a low-end QB1 with upside.

Running Backs

Rex Burkhead: Burkhead exploded this past week – most likely on fantasy managers’ benches though – for 28 Half PPR fantasy points and that’s certainly going to get fantasy managers’ attention heading into Week 17. With that being said, there’s a stark difference between the Chargers’ run defense and the 49ers. The Chargers are currently allowing 119.2 rushing yards per game on average this season and San Francisco is currently only allowing 78.5. The room to rumble around might not be there as much this week for Burkhead, which means that we should exercise caution when considering him for our starting lineups. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB3.

Elijah Mitchell: At the time of writing, the word on Mitchell is that he “has a chance” to play in Week 17 against the Texans. If Mitchell does suit up for the first time in three games, he’s going to be a smash start against this Texans defensive front that’s allowing the most rushing yards per game to opposing RBs with 121.5. Assuming that he’s at full strength, he can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB1.

Jeff Wilson: We’ve seen Wilson step in for Mitchell on a few occasions already this season and fail to put up dominant fantasy numbers. However, Wilson’s been fantastic for fantasy purposes over the past two weeks. He’s scored in back-to-back games and has put up 32 Half PPR fantasy points over that stretch. It’s unclear as of right now as to whether or not Elijah Mitchell is going to be able to return for this matchup against the Texans, but if he can’t go then Wilson needs to be in starting lineups as a low-end RB1 with upside.

Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks: Cooks wasn’t able to clear COVID protocols in time for last week’s contest against the Chargers, but all signs point to him being active for this game against San Francisco. In Cooks’ previous two performances before missing Week 16, he had a combined 15 receptions for 203 yards and two touchdowns. With the 49ers allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, Cooks belongs in starting lineups as a mid-range WR2 if he suits up.

Deebo Samuel: In the Week 15 version of The Primer, we raised concerns about Samuel and how he wasn’t seeing enough work in the receiving game to be viewed as a top-tier option at the WR position. He could keep up his ridiculous efficiency, but you needed that as a fantasy manager in order to feel comfortable playing him in your fantasy playoffs. Kyle Shanahan must read The Primer though because since that point he’s seen 16 targets in the two games since and has 219 receiving yards. On top of all that, he’s still seeing a handful of carries each game out of the backfield to boost his fantasy output. With this type of workload, plus his skillset, Samuel’s a top-5 start.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk’s production has been a bit up-and-down here recently, but he’s seen a dip in targets with Samuel being more of a factor in the receiving game again over the past two weeks. In Weeks 13 and 14, Aiyuk had a combined 16 targets. However, in the two games since then, he’s had just 7 total targets and has totaled just 76 receiving yards. We can’t view him as a locked-in WR2 at this point with that dip in target volume, but he does have massive upside due to the matchup against Houston. The Texans are going to have a tough time containing Aiyuk and this offense and we can view him as a high-end WR3 accordingly.

Tight Ends

Brevin Jordan: Jordan has started to emerge as a viable receiving threat in this Texans offense and he’s showing off the talent and skillset that was on full display at Miami. While the future may be bright for the rookie TE, he’s still an incredibly risky and volatile play in redraft formats. He can be viewed as a low-end TE2 for Week 17.

George Kittle: Kittle was certainly a disappointment last week after being one of fantasy football’s most dominant players over the previous few weeks. With that being said, Kittle belongs back in starting lineups this week as a top-5 play due to the matchup against the Texans. Houston is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to the position this season and Kittle has ridiculous upside yet again.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens

Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Rams 25, Ravens 21.5

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Unfortunately, Stafford wasn’t able to come through for fantasy managers last week in a prime situation against the Vikings’ defense. Minnesota had been bleeding fantasy points to opposing QBs, but he didn’t cross over the 200 passing yard threshold and he had just one touchdown to three interceptions. Stafford will look to shake that performance off though this week against the Baltimore secondary that’s currently allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year. He can be started as a low-end QB1 with upside.

Lamar Jackson: Are fantasy managers going to have Jackson back in their lineups this week? As of right now, it’s too early to tell, but there are certainly some teams out there that desperately need the star QB to return and be at full strength. If Jackson does end up returning and playing this week, he can be viewed as a low-end QB1. We don’t know what the status of his ankle injury will be and whether or not it’s fully healed, which is concerning given the tougher matchup too. We’ll continue to update as the week progresses. Update: It’s now looking likely that Jackson misses this matchup against the Rams.

Tyler Huntley: Huntley is projected to step in and start this week now that Jackson is all but ruled out. With his rushing ability, he can be viewed as a mid-range QB2 in a tougher matchup against the Rams defense.

Running Backs

Sony Michel: Michel was certainly irrelevant for the majority of the season, but the fantasy managers that held onto him as a high-level insurance policy all year are certainly thankful that they did! With Darrell Henderson now out of the picture for the remainder of the season, this is Michel’s backfield and he’s putting up dominant fantasy numbers as a result. Even if Cam Akers somehow magically returns to the lineup in Week 17, he’s not instantly going to walk back into the starting role. This is a tougher matchup for opposing RBs in Week 17 against the Baltimore Ravens, but Michel should see plenty of work and he can be viewed as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 accordingly.

Cam Akers: How in the world is Akers close to returning this week after working his way back from a torn Achilles?! It makes zero sense, but it’s awesome to see him healthy and getting back onto the football field. Even if Akers is moved to the active roster this week, he’s not worth considering for fantasy lineups in Week 17. With Michel now taking over this backfield and handling the responsibilities well, there’s zero reason to plug Akers in and give him enough volume to be fantasy relevant. He might see a handful of carries here or there, but he’s not worth looking at for championship rosters in Week 17.

Devonta Freeman: From Weeks 11 through 14, Freeman was averaging nearly 15 carries per game and he was emerging as a viable start for fantasy purposes each and every week. Unfortunately, Freeman has just seen 12 total carries since that point and he’s failing to make much of an impact. Fantasy managers were bailed out by Freeman finding the end zone in Week 16, but he otherwise would’ve put up another poor outing. At this point, Freeman is nothing more than a touchdown-or-bust option for fantasy lineups and it’s probably best to look elsewhere for championship week.

Latavius Murray: We have to go all the way back to Week 6 to find the last time that Murray finished with more than 6 Half PPR fantasy points in a game. He’s off the redraft radar at this point.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: Kupp has continued his dominance this season and he’s one of the most automatic starts for fantasy football in recent history. Against the secondary that’s allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year, Kupp should continue to put up absurd numbers. He can be viewed as the overall WR1 on the week yet again.

Odell Beckham Jr: The Rams passing game wasn’t able to do a whole lot this past week against Minnesota, but OBJ was able to come through for fantasy managers by finding the end zone for the fourth time in five games. While the yardage total last week (37 yards) is concerning, it’s important to note that OBJ had 8 targets, which was second on the entire team behind just Cooper Kupp. He’s going to remain a key part of this offense in Week 17 and we know that he has the potential to find the end zone yet again. Against the Ravens defense that’s allowing 24.0 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, Beckham can be in your lineup as a low-end WR2.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson was on a roll for a few weeks after LA came out of their bye week, but he’s fallen off here over the past couple of weeks and it’s difficult to now trust him in starting lineups. He has just 8 targets over the past two games combined and just 29 total receiving yards. He can be played still if you’re in a pinch due to the favorable matchup and the potential that he reels in one big play deep downfield, but otherwise he should be probably be left on benches in championship week.

Marquise Brown: Did you know that we have to go back to Week 9 of this season to find the last time that Brown finished with more than 10 Half PPR fantasy points? He’s continued to provide a decent floor each week and he’s seeing significant target volume, but we can no longer trust him as a top-24 option in our starting lineups. Brown can be viewed as a mid-range WR3 for Week 17 against the Rams secondary.

Rashod Bateman: Bateman was able to cash in last week and find the end zone, but he’s become an extremely volatile fantasy option here in recent weeks. Bateman should only be considered for starting lineups in deeper leagues and as a low-end FLEX play.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee had missed the previous two weeks, but he bounced back in Week 16 against the Vikings with a 5-41-0 stat line. In a game where the Rams struggled to do much on offense, Higbee was able to come through with a decent stat line for fantasy managers and he didn’t crush your lineup if you started him. Against the defense that’s allowing the 6th most fantasy points to the position this season, Higbee can be viewed as a high-end TE2.

Mark Andrews: It really doesn’t matter who’s throwing Andrews the ball, does it? Whether it’s Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, or Josh Johnson, Andrews continues to put up massive numbers. Over his last three games, Andrews has 376 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 29 receptions and he is carrying fantasy rosters to a championship. He’s the unquestioned TE1 in fantasy football right now and he should be viewed as such here in Week 17 against the Rams.