Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 28, Bengals 23
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has had an up-and-down season, but he’s fallen into a nice groove lately. Over his last three games, he’s completed 73.2% of his passes, averaged 308.7 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and thrown eight TD passes and one interception. Mahomes has also run for 52 yards over that stretch. He’s the overall QB2 this week against an average Bengals’ pass defense. That said, it would be hard to spend $7,800 for Mahomes on DraftKings when Josh Allen is only $200 more, has a better matchup, and offers more rushing potential.
Joe Burrow: Last week, Burrow firebombed an injury-ravaged Ravens secondary for 525 passing yards and four touchdowns – both career highs. He gets a much tougher matchup this week against a Chiefs defense that has hit its stride. Kansas City held Ben Roethlisberger to 159 passing yards on 39 attempts last week, with one touchdown and one interception. The last quarterback to throw for 300 yards against the Chiefs was Josh Allen in Week 5. Burrow is the QB8 for the year, and he checks in as the QB9 this week vs. Kansas City.
Running Backs
Darrel Williams: Clyde Edwards-Helaire injured his clavicle in Week 16 and has been ruled out. The leaves Williams as Kansas City’s lead back, with occasional relief from Derrick Gore. When CEH missed five midseason games with a sprained MCL, Williams had 69-244-2 rushing and 24-226-1 receiving, averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) over that stretch. Consider Williams a high-end RB2 this week against a solid Bengals run defense that ranks seventh in DVOA and has allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Joe Mixon: Mixon’s usage in the passing game has been erratic this season, but he had a season-high six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens last Sunday, adding 18-65-1 as a runner. In Week 17, Mixon will be facing a Kansas City defense that’s given up 118 targets and 813 receiving yards to running backs this season, so perhaps he’ll be able to top his rushing numbers with some gravy in the passing game. Mixon is a mid-range RB1 this week and a solid DraftKings value at $7,500.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: A week after exploding for 12-148-1 in a Thursday-night game against the Chargers, Hill had 2-19-0 on only two targets against the Steelers in Week 16. That’s Hill in a nutshell. He’s capable of putting up some mammoth weekly numbers, but he’ll also lay a few eggs. There have been three games this season in which Hill has rolled up 148 or more receiving yards, and three games in which he’s finished with 22 or fewer receiving yards. That lavish upside makes Hill a must-start and the only Chiefs receiver worth using in championship week. He’s the WR5 this week against the Bengals.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is averaging 14.0 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) this season, making him the WR7 in that category among receivers with at least 10 starts. He had 7-125-0 last week against the Ravens, posting his first 100-yard receiving day since Week 7. Target distribution is a bit of a wild card for Chase, who’s averaging 7.5 targets a game and has seen double-digit targets only three times. But Chase has scored 10 touchdowns and is averaging a freakish 10.4 yards per target, so he doesn’t need a massive target load in order to pay off. This guy is a big play waiting to happen. He’s the WR9 this week against a solid Kansas City pass defense.
Tee Higgins: Higgins is coming off the best game of his brief NFL career, a 12-194-2 masterpiece against the Ravens, whose injury-depleted collection of cornerbacks simply couldn’t cover No. 85. Higgins has topped the 100-yard mark in four of his last five games, scoring four touchdowns over that span. Since Week 12, Higgins is the WR2 in fantasy scoring behind only Cooper Kupp. The presence of Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd prevents us from ranking Higgins as a high-end WR1 for this week, but he lands in low-end WR1 range vs. the Chiefs.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd has scored a 56-yard touchdown and a 68-yard touchdown in his last two games. He was barely covered on the 68-yarder last week against the Ravens. On one hand, it’s nice that defenses have to pay so much attention to the Bengals’ outside receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, that occasionally Boyd finds himself wide open. On the other hand, Chase and Higgins command a lot of targets, so Boyd has disappeared at times this season. Regard Boyd as a low-end WR3 against the Chiefs.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Kelce was on the COVID-19 list last week and didn’t play in the Chiefs’ 36-10 win over the Steelers. In his most recent game, Kelce broke out of a mini-slump with a virtuoso 10-191-2 performance against the Chargers. Kelce is the overall TE1 this week against a Bengals defense that has allowed 997 receiving yards to tight ends, more than any other team except the Colts. Kelce is also a worthwhile DraftKings investment even at a pricey $7,300.
C.J. Uzomah: He’s seen six or more targets in three of his last four games but Uzomah has topped 36 yards only once in his last eight games and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7. He’s merely a mid-range TE2.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 40 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Titans 21.75, Dolphins 18.25
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa: For a team that hasn’t run the ball very well this year, the Dolphins have been surprisingly run-heavy of late, passing on only 44% of their offensive snaps the last two weeks. Naturally, cooperative game scripts have weighed into that, with a 31-24 win over the Jets in Week 15 and a 20-3 win over the Saints this past Monday night. Tua attempted 27 passes against the Jets, 26 against the Saints, and finished with just under 200 passing yards in both games. He may be forced to throw a bit more this week against the Titans, who have a pass-funnel defense, Opponents have thrown on the Titans on 64% of their offensive snaps. Tua has been serviceable as a fantasy quarterback in 2021 – no more, no less. He’s averaging 15.3 fantasy points in his last five starts. He lands at QB17 in this week’s rankings.
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill’s 2021 fantasy value has largely been sustained with TD runs – he has seven of them – and that’s a fragile blueprint for success. Tannehill has thrown just five TD passes in his last seven games, and he’s had only two multiple-TD games all season. However, the return of A.J. Brown from a chest injury gives Tannehill a needed lift. With AJB back in the lineup last week in a 20-17 win over the 49ers, Tannehill threw for 209 yards and a touchdown. Brown accounted for 145 of those yards and scored the lone touchdown. The Titans have remained a run-heavy team even with Derrick Henry out, so Tannehill is a dicey fantasy option, but his running ability and Brown’s return at least give him a pathway to good fantasy numbers. He’s a mid-range QB2 this week vs. the Dolphins.
Running Backs
Duke Johnson: After Johnson unexpectedly operated as Miami’s lead back in Week 15, it wasn’t immediately clear whether the new role would stick or if Johnson would fall back into a time-share arrangement with Miles Gaskin. Johnson got the start again in Week 16 and played the most snaps of the Miami RBs, but the Dolphins made it a three-way affair, with Johnson, Gaskin, and Phillip Lindsay each playing about one-third of Miami’s offensive snaps in a 20-3 Monday-night win over New Orleans. Johnson and Lindsay each had 13 carries and zero targets. Gaskin operated as the main passing-down back but had only four touches. Johnson is the only Miami running back worth considering for Week 17, and he’s not a strong play against a Tennessee defense that has given up the second-fewest rushing yards in the league. Johnson lands at RB41 in this week’s rankings.
D’Onta Foreman: Foreman had been on a roll in the lead-up to Week 16, averaging 18 carries and 12.5 fantasy points a game (0.5 PPR) over his three previous outings. Facing the 49ers in Week 16, Foreman ran nine times for 17 yards and didn’t see a single target, but a 3-yard TD run averted a fantasy disaster for his investors. Foreman continues to share backfield snaps with Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard, but Foreman’s steady diet of early-down carries makes him the only Tennessee back worth consideration in championship week. He has a tricky Week 17 matchup against an underrated Miami run defense that ranks 13th in DVOA and held the Saints’ Alvin Kamara to a quiet 13-52-0 rushing performance this past Monday night. Foreman is the RB29 this week.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is blossoming into a full-fledged star. Over his last four games, the rookie first-rounder has rolled up 36-384-2 on 42 targets, along with 3-48-0 rushing, which works out to 23.1 fantasy points per game in full-point PPR. We’ve seen glimpses of this sort of potential throughout the season, but now Waddle is a focus of the Dolphins’ offensive gameplan every week. This week, Waddle will be matched up against Tennessee’s Elijah Molden, a quality slot corner, but Waddle has become an unconditional must-start. He lands at WR13 in this week’s rankings.
DeVante Parker: It’s going to be hard for stakeholders to trust Parker this week after he played 46 snaps and didn’t see a single target against CB Marshon Lattimore and the Saints in Week 16. Parker has played only eight games this season and is averaging 7.0 targets, 4.3 catches, and 57.1 yards. With rookie Jaylen Waddle dominating targets for the Dolphins these days, Parker is a risky play. Consider him a low-end WR3 this week against the Titans.
A.J. Brown: Brown returned from a chest injury last week and lit up the 49ers for 11-145-1 on 16 targets. He had an outrageous 55.2% target share for the Titans in that game and accounted for 69.4% of their receiving yards. AJB obviously won’t be that busy every week, but he’s a true alpha receiver and remains one of the NFL’s most physically imposing pass catchers. Brown figure to face Miami CB Xavien Howard on a lot of his snaps this week. Howard has been good but not great this season, and this certainly isn’t a matchup for Brown investors to fear. AJB is a mid-range WR1 this week and worth considering at $7,200 in DraftKings contests.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki’s target efficiency has plummeted over the last month. In his first 11 games, Gesicki averaged a healthy 7.6 yards per target and was the TE4 in fantasy scoring. In his last four games, he’s averaged a meager 4.9 yards per target and 5.5 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR). Gesicki is also in a TD slump, last finding the end zone in Week 7. He’s the TE12 this week vs. Miami.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Colts -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Colts 25.5, Raiders 19
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: As noted in last week’s edition of the Primer, the difference in Carr’s numbers with and without TE Darren Waller has been stark. Waller has missed the Raiders’ last four games with an iliotibial band injury and is now on the COVID-19 list. With Waller, Carr has averaged 310.4 passing yards, with 17 TD passes in 11 games. Without Waller, Carr has averaged 237.3 passing yards, with three TD passes in four games. With Waller likely out again, Carr is slotted at QB20 in this week’s rankings.
Carson Wentz or Sam Ehlinger: Wentz is currently on the COVID-19 list but still has a chance to play Sunday based on the NFL’s new protocols. If Wentz doesn’t play, Ehlinger would get the start for Indianapolis and would be unplayable for fantasy purposes. If Wentz plays, he’ll merely be a mid-range QB2 against the Raiders. The Colts have been the second run-heaviest team in the league since Week 9, running the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps during that period. With Wentz serving as little more than a game manager these days, it’s hard to get excited about starting him in championship week.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs had been averaging 45.7 rushing yards before his 27-129-0 rushing day against the Broncos in Week 16. Throughout the season, Jacobs has provided fairly consistent RB2 value thanks to his increased usage in the passing game. He has a career-high 48 receptions for 319 yards. Jacobs lands at RB16 in this week’s rankings against a Colts defense that is allowing 15.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, the sixth-lowest total in the league.
Jonathan Taylor: After 16 weeks, we’ve almost exhausted our supply of superlatives for Taylor, who’s approaching the end of a remarkable regular season. Taylor is averaging 108.4 rushing yards, 22.4 receiving yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 21.6 fantasy points per game. In half-point PPR scoring, Taylor is the RB1 by a wide margin, having piled up 324.2 fantasy points. His next-closest pursuer, Austin Ekeler, has 263.7. Taylor is the undisputed RB1 this week. It should be noted that the Raiders had four of their linebackers land on the COVID-19 list Monday. If those LBs aren’t cleared in time for Sunday’s game, Taylor could go berserk. He’s priced at $9,000 on DraftKings and is probably worth it.
Wide Receivers
Hunter Renfrow: In Weeks 12-14, Renfrow averaged 10.0 receptions and 117.7 receiving yards, going over the 100-yard mark in all three of those contests. In the two games since, he’s had 6-72-1 on eight targets. Even with the recent slowdown, regard Renfrow as a mid-range WR2 this week vs. the Colts.
Michael Pittman: Pittman continues to command huge weekly target shares for the Colts. Carson Wentz threw only 28 passes last week in a 22-16 win over the Cardinals, and 12 of those throws were directed at Pittman – a 42.9% target share. Pittman hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9 and hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 7, but ample target volume nevertheless gives him a relatively safe floor. However, that floor could crumble away if Wentz doesn’t come off the COVID-19 list in time to start against the Raiders on Sunday. If Wentz plays, consider Pittman a mid-range WR2. If Sam Ehlinger starts in place of Wentz, Pittman will land in WR3 territory.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller or Foster Moreau: Waller reportedly had a chance to come back from an iliotibial band injury that’s sidelined him for the Raiders’ last four games, but now he’s been placed on the COVID-19 list, making a return unlikely. If Waller remains out, Moreau would be a mid-range TE2. In the four games Waller has missed, Moreau has produced 15-179-0.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
Date/Time: Sunday January 2, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Eagles -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Eagles 24, Washington 20.5
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts: Hurts has finished as a top-12 quarterback 11 times this season, more than any other signal-caller. He just missed finishing in QB1 range last week against the Giants even though he had a season-low seven rushing yards. Hurts threw for 199 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. This week, Hurts gets a primo matchup against a Washington defense that’s given up a league-high 25.0 fantasy points per game to QBs. No other defense has given up more than 19.7 FPPG to quarterbacks. In a Week 15 matchup against the Football Team, Hurts ran for 38 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 296 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Hurts is a mid-range QB1 this week and a rock-solid DraftKings value at $6,600.
Taylor Heinicke: The Football Team faces the Eagles this weekend, and when Washington and Philadelphia squared off two weeks ago, Heinicke was on the COVID-19 list. Heinicke’s last two starts have been against the Cowboys, and both were disastrous. He completed 38.3% of his throws in those two games, averaged 5.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw two TD passes and three interceptions. Heinicke will start this week, but Washington head coach Ron Rivera has said that backup Kyle Allen will likely get some playing time, too. Heinicke is the QB29 this week and a thoroughly unappealing fantasy option.
Running Backs
Jordan Howard: Miles Sanders has been ruled out for Week 17 with a broken hand. Howard sustained a stinger in Week 16 and wasn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Howard has been brutally effective on the ground this season, with 75-380-3 rushing in only six games. He even got involved in the passing game last week, recording his first two receptions of the season for 19 yards. If he’s able to play against Washington this week, which it appears he will do, Howard will be a mid-range RB3 in half-point PPR formats, with slightly more value in standard-scoring leagues and slightly less in full-point PPR leagues.
Boston Scott: Scott has five rushing touchdowns this season on 73 carries. There have been three games in which Scott had 12 or more carries, and he had at least one TD run in all three of those contests. Scott has a good chance to get 12 or more carries this week against Washington. Miles Sanders is out with a broken hand, and Jordan Howard is questionable with a stinger. If Sanders and Howard are both out, Scott would share snaps with Kenneth Gainwell, and Scott would likely have the bigger role. Even if Howard plays, Scott warrants fantasy consideration as a mid-range RB3. If Howard can’t go, Scott will ascend to the RB2 level.
Antonio Gibson: Gibson is dealing with hip and toe issues, but he got in a limited practice Wednesday, so he’ll probably be good to go against the Eagles this weekend. It’s been a roller-coaster season for Gibson. He was solid in Weeks 1-5, his production fell off in Weeks 6-8, he got his mojo back in Weeks 10-13, and his production slipped again in Weeks 14-16. It’s hard to trust Gibson when he’s so banged up, and with the Washington offense in a tailspin. He has a tricky matchup this week against a solid Eagles run defense that held him to 26 yards on 15 carries two weeks ago. Gibson is a risky mid-range RB2. Update: Gibson has been placed on the COVID list and is all but ruled out for Sunday’s game.
Jaret Patterson: With the news that Antonio Gibson has been placed on the COVID list, Patterson should be the next man up in this Washington backfield. He can certainly be turned to if you’re in a pinch, but we shouldn’t be expecting a one-for-one replacement of Gibson’s production. This offense is struggling and reeling with all the injuries it’s endured recently and Patterson can only be viewed as a high-volume play. He can be started this week as a high-end RB3.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith: It’s pretty easy to estimate what Smith’s target count is going to be this week. Over his last seven games, he’s seen no fewer than four targets and no more than seven targets, so let’s set the over/under at 5.5. Smith is facing a Washington defense that’s given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team, but he had only 3-40-0 when he went up against the Football Team in Week 15. Consider Smith a high-end WR3 this week.
Terry McLaurin: Poor McLaurin. One of these years, he’ll finally be paired with a good quarterback and go nuclear. Unfortunately, he’ll be paired with Taylor Heinicke or possibly Kyle Allen this week. McLaurin has gone five games without a touchdown and has been held to 51 or fewer receiving yards in every game during that stretch. He’s just a mid-range WR3 this week, even in a winnable individual matchup against Eagles CB Steven Nelson.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert: After two straight 100-yard games, Goedert crashed hard last week, producing a 2-28-0 stat line against the Giants on four targets. (In fairness, he did have a TD catch nullified by a holding penalty.) Goedert hadn’t produced more than 72 receiving yards in any game this season before his 6-105-2 day against the Jets in Week 13 and his 7-135-0 performance against the Football Team in Week 15, so those games look like outliers. Still, a rematch with a Washington defense that he just scalded two weeks ago is appealing. Goedert checks in at TE6.
Ricky Seals-Jones: In Weeks 5-7, Seals-Jones made his first three starts of the season in place of the injured Logan Thomas and had 15-150-1 receiving, making him the TE8 in fantasy scoring over that stretch. Since then, RSJ has played in five games and started three, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown or topped 30 receiving yards in any of them. He has a good matchup this week against a Philadelphia defense that’s had trouble covering tight ends, but Seals-Jones is merely a dart throw as the TE21.
This season, the Primer is presented by Pristine Auction. They are going to be providing giveaways throughout the season. See below for how to win a signed Keenan Allen jersey!
