Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Sunday December 26, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bengals -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bengals 23.5, Ravens 21
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley: Jackson is dealing with a bone bruise of his ankle and is expected to be out. Huntley has been placed on the COVID-19 list. That leaves third-stringer Josh Johnson poised to make the start at quarterback when the Ravens face the Bengals in Week 16, and Johnson isn’t a viable fantasy option.
Joe Burrow: This looks like a great spot for Burrow, who blistered the Ravens for 416 passing yards and three touchdowns when he faced them in Week 7. Baltimore has since lost its best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, to a season-ending pectoral injury. Burrow simply didn’t get enough passing volume last week in the Bengals’ 15-10 win over the Broncos, completing 15 of 22 passes for 157 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. Burrow ranks 15th in pass attempts this season, averaging 31.1 attempts per game, and volume is always a potential concern for a QB playing in an offense that ranks 31st in pace, burning an average of 29.8 seconds between offensive snaps. As well as Burrow has been throwing the ball lately, the TD gravy train has been derailed. In his first eight starts, Burrow threw 20 TD passes. In his last six starts, he’s thrown six TD passes. Despite the touchdown slump, Burrow checks in at QB9 this week.
Running Backs
Devonta Freeman: With a seemingly stable workload and a safe fantasy floor, Freeman had established himself as a bankable RB2 over the second half of the regular season. The safe floor crumbled away in Week 15, as the Ravens ramped up Latavius Murray‘s usage in a 31-30 loss to the Packers. Coming into that game, Freeman had logged double-digit carries in six straight games, averaging 17.3 touches over that stretch. Against Green Bay, Freeman had 6-22-0 rushing and 1-2-0 receiving. Murray had played 19% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps In Week 13 and 27% in Week 14, but his snap share jumped to 41% in Week 15. With Freeman’s touch volume no longer completely secure, he goes from a low-end RB2 to a mid-range RB3 this week against a respectable Cincinnati run defense that ranks 11th in DVOA.
Joe Mixon or Samaje Perine: Mixon sprained his ankle in Week 15, and several of the medical professionals who do fantasy injury analysis have suggested that a high-ankle sprain is a strong possibility. If Mixon were able to play against the Ravens this weekend, he’d be a low-end RB1 with a shakier floor than usual. If Mixon sits, Perine becomes a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside. Chris Evans would probably get some work too, but Perine would likely get a clear majority of the touches. A no-frills runner and competent pass catcher, Perine has 54-242-1 rushing and 24-180-1 receiving on the year.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown: Brown’s unexpected transition from a deep-ball artist to a short-area receiver continued in Week 15 with a truly unusual performance. Brown was targeted 14 times and had a season-high 10 catches, but he produced only 43 receiving yards. Most of Brown’s catches came late in the game with the Ravens trying to come back from a deficit. Backup QB Tyler Huntley kept peppering Brown with quick passes within a yard or two of the line of scrimmage, and Packers CB Eric Stokes would quickly close in on Brown and make the tackle after a short gain. Brown hasn’t topped 55 yards since Week 9 and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7. He’s a high-end WR3 this week.
Rashod Bateman: After producing 7-60-0 over a quiet three-game stretch from Week 11 to Week 13, Bateman erupted for 7-103-0 vs. the Browns in Week 14. Unfortunately, we didn’t get a satisfying encore, as Bateman drew only two targets and had 1-5-0 receiving against the Packers in Week 15. With Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown dominating targets for the Ravens, Bateman shouldn’t be a fantasy consideration for Week 16.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase’s catastrophic Week 15 stat line – four targets, one catch for three yards – no doubt doomed a lot of fantasy managers to playoff elimination. Chase has scored 10 touchdowns this season, but his weekly yardage totals have been erratic. He’s had a 201-yard game and a 159-yard game, and he churned out 101 receiving yards in his Week 1 debut. But Chase has produced 52 or fewer receiving yards in six of his last seven games, so his value has become increasingly TD dependent. The good news is that Chase gets a smash matchup this week against an injury-depleted Ravens secondary that he’s already destroyed once. That 201-yard game? It came against Baltimore in Week 7, with Chase racking up eight catches and scoring on an 82-yard touchdown. This is a get-right spot for Chase, so if you survived his Week 15 dud, there’s a good chance he’ll make it up to you this week. Chase lands at WR9 in this week’s rankings.
PRISTINE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Pristine Auction. For Week 16, Ja’Marr Chase is our Pristine Matchup of the Week.
Tee Higgins: Higgins’ streak of three consecutive 100-yard games was snapped with a 2-23-0 performance against the Broncos in Week 15. A tough matchup against a good group of Denver cornerbacks might have had something to do with Higgins’ slow day, but the Bengals attempted only 22 passes, and Higgins only saw three targets, so there weren’t many opportunities. A Week 16 date with the Ravens could get Higgins back on track. With Marlon Humphrey out for the season with a pectoral injury, the Ravens are hurting at cornerback. Higgins saw a season-high 15 targets against the Ravens back in Week 7 but finished with 7-62-0 in an inefficient performance. If Higgins gets double-digit targets in Week 16, he’ll likely put up big numbers. He’s a high-end WR2 for Week 16.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd was the only Bengals receiver to post satisfactory fantasy numbers in Week 15, with his 56-yard catch-and-run touchdown fueling a 5-96-1 day. It was Boyd’s highest yardage total since Week 4. Boyd is a mid-range WR4 in a reasonably good matchup against Ravens slot corner Tavon Young.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews: Andrews is on fire, with 21-251-3 over his last two games. He surpassed the 1,000-yard mark with a 136-yard outing against the Packers last week and now has 85-1,062-8 on the year. Andrews is the Ravens’ most dependable pass catcher, and he’s a must-start this week against a Bengals defense that’s given up the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
C.J. Uzomah: After scoring five touchdowns over a four-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 7, Uzomah has gone seven straight games without a TD and has averaged just 24.1 yards per game over that span. Even in a favorable matchup against the Ravens, Uzomah is no more than a high-end TE3.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
Date/Time: Sunday December 26, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -10
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 27.75, Texans 17.75
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert: Herbert comes into a Week 16 matchup against the Texans having thrown multiple TD passes in five consecutive games and in 10 of his 14 starts this season. He’s averaging 289.9 passing yards a game and has topped the 300-yard mark seven times. Herbert also adds value with his legs, with 284 rushing yards and three TD runs on the year. The Texans have a respectable pass defense, but Herbert is still the overall QB1 this week.
Davis Mills: Mills has been surprisingly decent for a rookie quarterback drafted in the third round. Ever since an ugly Week 4 start against the Bills in which he threw four interceptions, Mills has completed 68.1% of his passes and averaged a respectable 6.8 yards per pass attempt, with eight TD passes and four interceptions. Still, it isn’t advisable to start Mills this week unless you’re in a 2QB or superflex league. He’s the QB28 against a run-funnel Chargers defense, and if WR Brandin Cooks doesn’t come off the COVID-19 list in time for Sunday’s game, Cooks will be completely unplayable.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler was placed on the COVID-19 list, and it’s unclear whether he has a chance to be cleared in time for Sunday’s game against Houston. Playing through an ankle injury in Week 15, Ekeler churned out 12-59-1 rushing and 4-23-0 receiving in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs even though he was in on just 34% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps. The Texans have been gashed for a league-high 2,030 rushing yards. They’re giving up 4.7 yards per carry and have yielded 23 TD runs. If Ekeler is able to play, he’ll be a top-five RB.
Justin Jackson: With Austin Ekeler dealing with an ankle injury last week against the Chiefs, Jackson played 43 snaps and had 13-86-0 rushing and 1-13-0 receiving, looking surprisingly quick and powerful. Ekeler is now on the COVID-19 list, and if he isn’t cleared before Sunday, Jackson will likely get a substantial workload against a bad Texans’ run defense. Jackson is tentatively ranked RB46 pending further word on Ekeler’s status, but he’ll be a top-20 RB option if Ekeler is out.
Rex Burkhead: In the days leading up to the Texans’ Week 15 game against the Jaguars, it was believed that Burkhead would be sidelined with a hip injury. Burkhead played and had 16-41-0 rushing and 1-6-0 receiving. He’s averaged 14.8 touches over his last five games, but he’s averaged only 50.4 yards from scrimmage over that stretch and has scored only one touchdown all season. He’s just a mid-range RB4.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: Allen offers one of the safest weekly floors in fantasy football. He’s averaging 10.3 targets, 7.1 receptions, and 77.5 receiving yards a game, and he’s had only two games this season in which he finished with fewer than 50 receiving yards. This week, his ceiling is elevated with Mike Williams on the COVID-19 list. Obviously, you’re starting Allen in your playoff matchups this week and feeling great about it.
Mike Williams: Williams has been placed on the COVID-19 list and is out for Week 16.
Josh Palmer: Palmer has shown us flashes of immense potential in his rookie season, and he gets a golden opportunity to contribute this week with Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton both on the COVID-19 list. Palmer becomes a low-end WR3 play against the Texans.
Brandin Cooks: Cooks landed on the COVID-19 list this week, and it’s not clear whether he has a chance to come off in time to play this weekend. In the two games since the Texans reinserted rookie QB, Davis Mills, as their starter, Cooks has had 8-101-0 and 7-102-2 receiving on 21 targets. If he plays, he’ll be a mid-range WR2 against a Chargers pass defense that gave up 12-148-1 to the Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill in Week 15.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook: Cook’s receiving numbers through 14 games: 41-440-4 on 71 targets. He’s not a sexy option at the position, but you could do worse than a veteran pass-catching tight end playing in one of the league’s better passing attacks. Cook lands at TE15 in this week’s rankings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Date/Time: Sunday December 26, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -10
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: The 44-year-old Brady has been enjoying a marvelous season, leading the league in passing yardage (4,348) and TD passes (36), but now he has to deal with a depleted cache of weapons. Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin tore his ACL against the Saints in Week 15 and is out for the season. WR Mike Evans and RB Leonard Fournette sustained hamstring injuries against the Saints and are both unlikely to suit up against the Panthers this week. Godwin, Evans, and Fournette have accounted for 311 targets, 231 receptions, 2,456 receiving yards and 18 TD catches this season. The good news is that Brady and the Bucs are getting WR Antonio Brown back from an ankle injury and fake-vaccination-card suspension. Still, Brady struggled against the Saints last week, completing 26 of 48 passes for 214 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, and the absence of so many good pass catchers is likely to limit his ceiling this week in a road game against a Panthers pass defense that ranks eighth in DVOA. Brady is the QB8 this week.
Cam Newton: Newton is coming off the ugliest 25-point fantasy week in history. He did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown in an unsightly 31-14 loss to the Bills. Newton completed 18 of 38 passes for 156 yards, with one touchdown and one outrageously bad interception. Newton is always a threat to pile up fantasy points as a runner, but his passing is substandard, and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has intermittently used backup P.J. Walker in games where Newton has struggled. Newton comes with a wide range of possible outcomes, but the low floor lands him at QB22 against the Buccaneers.
Running Backs
Ronald Jones: Fournette sustained a hamstring injury Sunday night against the Saints, so expect the Buccaneers to serve up a heaping helping of Ronald Jones against the Panthers this week. In 2020, Fournette missed three games due to injury and had a game in which he was injured on his first snap. In those four games, Jones had 78-410-3 rushing and 12-33-0 receiving, with weekly fantasy finishes of RB15, RB18, RB4, and RB15 in half-point PPR scoring. That doesn’t even include RoJo’s 23-192-1 rushing day against the Panthers in Week 10 of last year, in a game where he played a leading role and had Fournette backing him up. Carolina’s run defense ranks 23rd in DVOA, so Jones offers appealing upside, even though he’s an objectively terrible pass catcher. RoJo lands at RB11 in this week’s rankings and should be considered a must-start.
Chuba Hubbard: When Christian McCaffrey missed time earlier in the season, Hubbard was basically used as a workhorse, getting the vast majority of the Panthers’ RB touches. Now, after an ankle injury put McCaffrey on the shelf for the balance of the season, Hubbard has been splitting work with Ameer Abdullah. Hubbard is the only Carolina running back worth fantasy consideration, but his reduced workload makes him a low-end RB3 at best. Hubbard has been out-snapped by Abdullah 78-61 in the two games since McCaffrey went on IR, with 18-73-1 rushing and just a lone 1-yard catch over that span.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown: An ankle injury and a three-game suspension for using a fake vaccination card have kept Brown out of action since Week 6. His return is most welcome for the Buccaneers, who lost Chris Godwin to a torn ACL and probably won’t have Mike Evans or Leonard Fournette for a few weeks because of hamstring injuries. In five games this season, Brown has racked up 29-418-4 receiving. Before the ankle injury, he was the WR7 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR), averaging 16.2. Even with target competition from Godwin and Evans, Brown was averaging 8.4 targets per game. He has a good chance to see double-digit targets this week with Godwin and Evans out of the picture. Brown checks in at WR11.
Tyler Johnson: With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans going down with injuries in Week 15, Johnson saw seven targets in the Buccaneers’ Sunday-night loss to the Saints and had 4-41-0. Antonio Brown will be back for the Bucs this week and figures to be the lead receiver, but Johnson has some low-level fantasy appeal in a complementary role. He lands at WR52 in this week’s rankings.
Breshad Perriman: Perriman was on the COVID-19 list in Week 15 but made a splash for the Buccaneers in Week 14 with his only catch, a 58-yard touchdown against the Bills. Perriman figures to play an enhanced role with WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both out. Perriman isn’t likely to see the sort of target volume that WR Antonio Brown and TE Rob Gronkowski will likely have, but Perriman is also the sort of deep-ball artist who can make his weekly fantasy quota with just one or two catches. In late 2019, with Godwin and Evans battling injuries, Perriman had 20-419-5 over the Bucs’ final four regular-season games – and that was with Jameis Winston at quarterback rather than Tom Brady. Perriman lands at WR62 in this week’s rankings, but he’s an intriguing option if you’re a heavy underdog and don’t mind taking a risk on a receiver with a shaky floor but a lofty ceiling.
D.J. Moore: Keep an eye on Moore’s status, since he’s been unable to practice this week due to a hamstring injury. Moore has 78-986-4 for the season and is the WR17 in fantasy scoring. But Cam Newton has completed 54.9% of his passes and averaged 5.5 yards per pass attempt since rejoining the Panthers, so any bet on a Carolina receiver carries some degree of risk. The talented Moore has seen double-digit targets in three straight games and has 16-235-0 over that span. Consider him a mid-range WR3 this week.
Robby Anderson: Anderson has seen 20 targets over the last two weeks, but his almost comical inefficiency makes him unplayable for fantasy purposes. Anderson has a catch rate of 43.8% and is averaging just 4.5 yards per target. No thanks.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski: With WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans going down with injuries in Week 15, Gronk saw a season-high 11 targets against the Saints but had only 2-29-0, as Buccaneers QB Tom Brady was basically just flinging throws in Gronk’s general direction while under constant pressure from Saints pass rushers. Gronkowski is sure to play a major role this week against the Panthers with Godwin and Evans out of the picture, and the return of WR Antonio Brown should keep Carolina from giving Gronk a great deal of extra attention. With an enhanced target outlook, Gronk is the TE2 this week behind only George Kittle.
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks
Date/Time: Sunday December 26, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Seahawks -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Seahawks 24.75, Bears 18.25
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: Fields is dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for this week, but Bears head coach Matt Nagy has already said Nick Foles will start at quarterback for the Bears in Seattle this weekend. Foles hasn’t played all season and would be an absolute bottom-of-the-barrel option in superflex leagues.
Russell Wilson: Since coming back from a finger injury in Week 10, Wilson has averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game, making him the QB27 in that category among passers with at least three starts over that span. Wilson has averaged 239.3 passing yards a game since returning to the lineup and has thrown six TD passes over that six-game stretch. The absence of Tyler Lockett, who was on the COVID-19 list, was a major hindrance to Wilson last week since he simply hasn’t been clicking with D.K. Metcalf. With Lockett sidelined, Wilson threw for 156 yards and no touchdowns in a 20-10 loss to the Rams. Lockett is expected back this week, but Wilson is still only the QB15 in this week’s rankings, even in a favorable matchup with the Bears.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: Montgomery’s usage remains elite, and he’s providing a sturdy weekly floor with his bankable yardage totals. The one complaint from Montgomery stakeholders is that Monty isn’t providing any spike weeks because he’s scored only one touchdown since returning from a knee injury in Week 9. In the six games he’s played since coming off IR, Montgomery has 93-359-1 rushing and 25-167-0 receiving, which works out to an averaged of 87.7 yards from scrimmage per game. He’s had at least 67 yards from scrimmage in every game during that stretch. Montgomery is a low-end RB1 this week against a Seattle defense that’s giving up 21.6 fantasy points per game to running backs. The Seahawks are especially vulnerable to pass-catching backs, having yielded a league-high 930 receiving yards to RBs.
Rashaad Penny: With the runway finally clear for Penny to play a leading role, was it really so surprising that he got hurt almost immediately? Fortunately, the back injury that forced Penny from Tuesday’s game against the Rams appeared to be a minor one, and he re-entered the game a short time later. But Penny has dealt with a litany of injuries during his four NFL seasons, and we should probably take that into account whenever we’re forced to assess his fantasy value. After rushing 16 times for 137 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans in Week 14, Penny had 11 carries for 39 yards against the Rams on Tuesday, adding two catches for five yards. He has a favorable matchup against the Bears this week, but Penny is still just a low-end RB2 with a wide range of potential outcomes.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney: Mooney has been in a mini-slump, with 11-109-0 over his last three games. His 5-63-0 performance against the Vikings on Monday was an improvement over his two previous games, but it was still a disappointment considering that the Vikings have given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team. On the plus side, Mooney is averaging 7.3 targets a game, and his sub-4.4 speed gives him ample splash-play potential. He’s a low-end WR3 this week against the Seahawks.
Allen Robinson: Robinson returned from a multiweek hamstring injury in Week 14, had two catches for 14 yards against the Packers, then promptly went on the COVID-19 list and missed Week 15. This has been a nightmare season for A-Rob, and there’s no way you can trust him in your lineup with your fantasy season on the line.
Tyler Lockett: Lockett missed the Seahawks’ Tuesday-night loss to the Rams because he was on the COVID-19 list. He’s expected back this week, and he gets a favorable draw against a leaky Chicago secondary that’s given up 26 TD passes and is yielding 24.3 fantasy points per game (0.5) to wide receivers. Lockett has a boom-or-bust production profile, but it’s easy to see the potential boom in this matchup. He’s a high-end WR2.
D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf’s struggles continue. Even with teammate Tyler Lockett on the COVID-19 list for Week 15, Metcalf was only able to turn 12 targets into 6-52-0 in a Tuesday-night loss to the Rams. Metcalf has gone six straight games without a touchdown and hasn’t exceeded 60 receiving yards in any game during that stretch. He gets a juicy matchup against a shaky Chicago pass defense this week, but Metcalf and QB Russell Wilson have demonstrated so little chemistry ever since Wilson returned from a finger injury that it’s hard to feel confident about plugging Metcalf into your lineup. He’s the WR19 for Week 16.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: He still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, but Kmet continues to be prominently involved in the Bears’ passing game. Granted, it’s a weak passing game. But Kmet has seen at least five targets in nine of his last 10 games and has averaged 45.4 receiving yards over that stretch. He gets a good matchup this week vs. a Seahawks defense that’s been vulnerable against tight ends. Kmet is a mid-range TE2.
Gerald Everett: With Tyler Lockett on the COVID-19 list in Week 15, Everett had four catches for 60 yards (his second-highest yardage total of the season) in a 20-10 loss to the Rams. Everett has averaged a respectable 7.4 fantasy points per game since Week 10, but he’s the TE18 this week against a Bears defense that has allowed only 496 receiving yards to tight ends this season.