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Ladies and gentlemen, we made it! We made it to the first round of the fantasy playoffs, and this is where things get interesting. All of the off-season preparation, all of the hours of managing your roster during the season, and all of the good vibes you could possibly pour out over your roster have resulted in this moment.
You now get to chase after your fantasy football league’s championship trophy.
It’s been a wacky and wild season so far up to this point, and it seems like that may only ramp up as we move throughout the next few weeks. For those who have been able to fight and claw your way into the fantasy playoffs, congratulations! We’re here to guide you and your lineup decisions all the way through the championship, so don’t go anywhere! We have plenty of information below for you that is going to help you put the best possible lineup forward.
Best of luck, everyone! Let’s go win some championships!
– Kyle Yates
MATCHUP LINKS:
NE vs. IND | TEN vs. PIT | CAR vs. BUF | HOU vs. JAC | DAL vs. NYG | ARI vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | CIN vs. DEN | ATL vs. SF | GB vs. BAL | NO vs. TB | LV vs. CLE | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. LAR | WAS vs. PHI |
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New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sunday December 18, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Colts -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Colts 23.75, Patriots 21.25
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones: As good as Jones has been – he’s now the overwhelming favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award – he hasn’t been impactful for fantasy purposes. Naturally, we’re giving him a mulligan for Week 14, when he attempted only three passes in the Patriots’ 14-10 win over the Bills on a windy Monday night in Buffalo. But even if you leave out that game, Jones has averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game. Jones has thrown multiple TD passes in 5 of 13 starts and has had two 300-yard passing days. He’s the QB26 this week.
Carson Wentz: The Patriots are a skull-and-crossbones matchup for opposing quarterbacks, and the sailor manning the crow’s nest on the S.S. Wentz just spotted the Jolly Roger on the horizon. New England’s pass defense ranks second in opponent passer rating and third in DVOA. The Patriots have allowed 15 TD passes in 13 games and have recorded 19 interceptions. They’re allowing 195.5 passing yards per game and just 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Wentz has been up and down this season. He’s the QB15 in fantasy points per game, but he’s had a wide range of weekly outcomes. He’s a low-end QB2 this week and not a consideration in DFS.
Running Backs
Damien Harris: Harris injured his hamstring late in New England’s Week 13 win over Buffalo and has been ruled out for Week 14.
Rhamondre Stevenson: With Damien Harris ruled out with a hamstring injury, Stevenson could be in for a big workload this week against the Colts. Stevenson had a season-high 24 carries in the Patriots’ most recent game, a Week 13 win over the Bills, but that was largely due to high winds – the Patriots attempted only three passes in that game. Still, Stevenson has averaged 16.4 touches a game since the start of November, and the run-heavy Patriots figure to work their rookie running hard this week. The Colts have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the Indianapolis run defense ranks fifth in DVOA, but this is still a great spot for Stevenson, who’s a high-end RB2 this week.
Jonathan Taylor: The Patriots aren’t the easiest matchup for running backs, but Taylor is basically matchup-proof. The Bills were thought to have a top run defense, and Taylor trampled Buffalo for 185 rushing yards and four touchdowns in Week 11. Taylor then ran for 85 yards and a touchdown the following week against a very good Buccaneers run defense. Taylor leads the NFL with 1,348 rushing yards, and he’s more than 300 yards ahead of his closest pursuer, Joe Mixon. Taylor also has a league-high 18 touchdowns. He’s the RB1 this week.
Wide Receivers
Kendrick Bourne: Bourne has been remarkably efficient this season, catching 79.2% of his targets and averaging 11.8 yards per target. Counting on such freakish efficiency is unwise, which is why Bourne is ranked WR42 this week despite being the WR28 in fantasy scoring on the year.
Jakobi Meyers: He piles up receptions (59 and counting), but Meyers offers few splash plays and has scored just one touchdown in his career. He’s averaging 10.5 yards per catch and has topped 50 receiving yards only once in his last eight games. He’s on the WR4/WR5 border for this week and not a recommended play even in full-point PPR leagues.
Michael Pittman: As good as Pittman has been this season, he isn’t a comfortable fantasy play this week in a tough matchup against the Patriots. Bill Belichick and his defensive assistants are famous for scheming up ways to make an opponent’s top weapon a nonfactor. Perhaps Colts RB Jonathan Taylor will be Belichick’s schematic target this week, but we’ve seen that it’s pretty hard to cancel out Taylor. It might be more feasible for New England to focus on stopping Pittman, who’s commanded a 24.2% target share this season and has been the Colts’ only consistent playmaker in the passing game. It’s also somewhat unnerving that Pittman has gone four games without a touchdown and hasn’t turned in a 100-yard game since Week 7. He’s just a high-end WR3 this week and a fade in DFS contests.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: Henry has been heavily touchdown-dependent in 2021, with seven TDs on 35 receptions. He’s averaging 30.3 receiving yards per game. Henry is a mid-range TE2 this week against a Colts defense that’s occasionally had trouble covering tight ends.
Jack Doyle: A classic example of a catch-and-fall-down tight end, Doyle is averaging 10.8 yards per catch. His career-high was 10.9 YPC last season, and he’s averaged 9.3 YPC for his career. Doyle has scored three touchdowns in his last six games, but as the TE24 on the season, he doesn’t offer much upside. Pass.
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Sunday December 19, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -1.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 41.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Titans 21.5, Steelers 20
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill: With A.J. Brown out with a chest injury the last two weeks, Tannehill has averaged 142 passing yards and has thrown just one TD pass over that span. Julio Jones was back from a hamstring injury last week, but he didn’t look anything like the Julio Jones who used to shred defensive backfields during his days with the Falcons. Tannehill had a 5-yard TD run against the Jaguars last week, and he’s scored six rushing touchdowns on the year. But Tannehill has thrown multiple TD passes in only two games this season, and he’s going to be without his best pass-catcher again this week with Brown remaining on IR. Tannehill is the QB19 against the Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger had a rough first month of the season, but he’s turned things around. Since Week 5, he’s averaged 254.1 passing yards per game, with 15 TD passes and three interceptions over that span. Those aren’t eye-popping fantasy numbers, but if indeed this is Roethlisberger’s last ride, at least he isn’t going out with a whimper. Big Ben nearly pulled off an amazing comeback against the Vikings last week. The Steelers trailed 23-0 at halftime, but they were within eight points on the final snap of regulation. Roethlisberger delivered a perfect end-zone throw to TE Pat Freiermuth, but Vikings safety Harrison Smith was able to jar the ball loose for an incompletion. Roethlisberger is the QB18 this week against a so-so Titans pass defense.
Running Backs
D’Onta Foreman: Foreman ran for 109 yards against the Patriots in Week 13, but the Titans’ backfield was a two-man show that week, with Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard sharing work. Jeremy McNichols returned from a concussion in Week 14, and the Titans’ backfield turned into a three-man weave. McNichols led the Tennessee RBs with 27 snaps, Hilliard had 24, and Foreman had 23. Foreman was the only one to put up worthwhile fantasy numbers, with 13-47-1 rushing and 2-15-0 receiving. Foreman might not have the same burst he had before tearing his Achilles tendon in 2017, but he’s looked smooth and powerful, and he’s even displayed some pass-catching chops. Foreman is a high-end RB3 this week against a Pittsburgh run defense that was carved up by Dalvin Cook and the Vikings last week.
Jeremy McNichols: Returning from a concussion that had kept him out of action since Week 10, McNichols led the Tennessee running backs in snaps last week against the Jaguars but finished with only 8-16-0 rushing and no receptions on one target. McNichols served as the Titans’ primary pass-catching back earlier in the season, and now he’s the likeliest candidate to line up behind QB Ryan Tannehill on obvious passing downs. There may not be a great deal of fantasy value to that role, however. McNichols lands at RB47 in this week’s rankings.
Dontrell Hilliard: After rushing for 131 yards against the Patriots in Week 13, Hilliard had only 6-13-0 rushing and no catches on two targets in last weekend’s 20-0 win over the Jaguars. Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman shared backfield snaps against the Patriots two weeks ago, but Jeremy Nichols returned from a concussion and joined the fray last week against the Jaguars. Foreman is probably the Titans’ best early-down back, and McNichols is probably their best passing down back, which leaves Hilliard in a squeeze. He’s the RB49 this week against the Steelers and not an appealing fantasy option.
Najee Harris: The rookie had the first multiple-touchdown game of his career last week, with a TD run and a TD catch in a 36-28 loss to the Vikings. Harris finished with 20-94-1 rushing and 3-10-1 receiving against the Vikings. It was the seventh time this season he’s had 20 or more carries in a game. Harris now has nine touchdowns for the season, and he’s averaging 97.7 yards from scrimmage per game. This week, Harris faces a Titans defense that’s giving up 90.9 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league behind only the Ravens. Still, Harris is a rock-solid fantasy option, checking in at RB8.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones: With A.J. Brown out with a chest injury last week and Jones returning from a hamstring injury, it seemed as if Julio might enjoy a target smorgasbord. That didn’t happen. Julio was targeted six times and finished with a disappointing 4-33-0 stat line. Brown is still on IR, so Julio’s investors might be tempted to roll him out again this week for a matchup against the Steelers. He’ll likely get a lot of face time with Steelers CB Cameron Sutton, whom PFF grades 111th out of 120 graded cornerbacks. It’s a tempting matchup, but Julio hasn’t looked himself all season. He’s only a high-end WR4 in this week’s rankings, and he’s not an appealing option at $5,400 on DraftKings.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Now the Titans’ No. 2 receiver, Westbrook-Ikhine has played more than 50 snaps in each of his last three games and has 12-163-1 over that stretch. But 107 of those yards came against the Texans in Week 11, and Westbrook-Ikhine has had just five catches for 56 yards in the two games since. He lands at WR67 in this week’s rankings and isn’t a very attractive fantasy option.
Dionte Johnson: Johnson has been a busy man this season, with 130 targets in 12 games. He’s seen double-digit targets 10 times, and he ranks third in the league in targets behind only Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill. For the season, Johnson has 81 catches for 990 yards and six touchdowns, making him the WR9 in fantasy scoring. He’s the WR5 this week against a Titans defense that’s given up 2,569 receiving yards to wide receivers – the highest total in the league. At $7,500 on DraftKings, Johnson can be a solid foundational piece for cash-game lineups.
Chase Claypool: The second-year receiver took a public-relations hit with his dubious behavior during the Steelers Thursday-night loss to the Vikings last week. Claypool drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for taunting early in the game. Then, with under a minute left and the Steelers driving into Vikings territory down by eight points, Claypool stopped to pose after making a short catch for a first down, wasting precious seconds. (He also threw a tantrum after Ben Roethlisberger spiked the ball to kill the clock, apparently because a teammate had tried to snatch the ball away from him to hasten the proceedings.) The childish antics obscured one of the better performances Claypool has had this season. He finished with 8-93-0 on nine targets, and Claypool has produced 82 or more receiving yards in three of his last four starts. He’s a mid-range WR3 this week against the Titans.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth had a 15-yard TD catch late in the fourth quarter last Thursday night as the Steelers mounted a furious comeback against the Vikings. The rookie tight end probably should have had a second TD catch a few minutes later on the final play of regulation, but Vikings safety Harrison Smith knocked the ball loose after Ben Roethlisberger had put it right in Freiermuth’s breadbasket. We won’t hold it against Freiermuth, who’s scored six touchdowns in his last seven games and is among the players giving us hope for the future of the TE position in fantasy. Freiermuth is a low-end TE1 against the Titans.
Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Sunday December 19, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bills -10.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bills 27.5, Panthers 17
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton: Newton is one of the best running quarterbacks of all time, so there’s a chance he could run for a couple of touchdowns this week and pull a usable fantasy performance out of thin air. But starting him this week on the road against a good Bills defense would be a huge leap of faith, especially since Cam has been so unproductive as a passer since making his return to the Panthers. In three starts, Newton has thrown two TD passes and three interceptions while averaging 153 passing yards. He’s also had a few brief benchings. Newton has run for a touchdown in each of his four games with Carolina, but the sketchy production in the passing game gives him a frightening floor. He’s the QB25 this week.
Josh Allen: Allen has finished as the overall QB1 in two of the last three weeks, and the one “miss” was the windy Monday night in Buffalo two weeks ago. Last week, Allen threw for 308 yards, ran for 109 yards, and produced three touchdowns (two passes, one run) in a 33-27 loss to the Buccaneers. Allen doesn’t have an easy matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, but he’s nevertheless the QB1. It’s hard to justify shelling out $8,100 for him on DraftKings in a suboptimal matchup, however.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard was out-snapped 38-25 last week by Panthers’ passing-down back Ameer Abdullah, but that was most likely because the Panthers trailed the Falcons for most of that game. I don’t think you necessarily want either of the Carolina backs in your lineup for a fantasy playoff game, but Hubbard is much more viable than Abdullah. Hubbard has been decent this season when called upon to fill in for the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey, with 132-460-4 rushing and 19-152-0 receiving in his rookie season. He’s a back-end RB3 in a tough matchup against the Bills.
Devin Singletary: The Bills’ backfield has been hard to peg all season, but Singletary is pretty clearly No. 1 in the pecking order. He played 82% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in Week 14 – his highest snap share of the season – and has led the Bills’ RBs in snaps in each of the last four games. That leading snap role hasn’t translated into fantasy production. Singletary has 32-149-0 rushing and 10-67-0 receiving over the last four weeks. He lands at RB38 in this week’s rankings.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore: Moore is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he’s been practicing on a limited basis, and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has said he expects Moore to play against the Bills on Sunday. Although the Carolina passing game has barely been functional since the arrival of QB Cam Newton, Moore has still been fairly productive, with 15-237-1 on 27 targets over Newton’s three starts. Moore is a mid-range WR2 this week in a suboptimal matchup against the Bills.
Robby Anderson: Anderson turned in his best performance of the season last Sunday against the Falcons, with 7-84-1 on 12 targets. It was the first time he’s had more than 46 receiving yards in a game since Week 1. Anderson has been wildly inefficient all season, with a 44.4% catch rate and a dismal 4.6 yards per target. You simply can’t trust Robby in the most important week of your fantasy season so far.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs’ 13 targets last week tied a season-high, but he finished with an unsatisfying 7-74-0 stat line against the Buccaneers. It’s been that kind of a season for Diggs. The overall numbers certainly aren’t bad – 78 catches, 972 yards, seven TDs – but he hasn’t been as impactful as he was in 2020. Diggs averaged 16.6 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) last year. He’s averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game this year. Diggs is the WR10 this week vs. the Panthers.
Cole Beasley: Beasley is the Bills’ designated zone-buster, and he’s playing a second consecutive game against a team that plays a lot of zone coverage. Beasley had 9-64-0 last week against the zone-heavy Buccaneers. This week he’ll face a Panthers defense that rarely blitzes and plays a lot of cover-3 zone. Beasley is a mid-range WR4 in half-point PPR formats, a low-end WR3, or high-end WR4 in full-point PPR formats.
Gabriel Davis: Chasing last week’s points is one of the biggest mistakes you can make in fantasy football, and there might be some fantasy managers who commit that error with Davis. He had 5-43-1 against the Buccaneers last week, making him the WR27 in fantasy scoring for Week 14. Davis had eight targets against Atlanta. It was the first time he’s seen more than four targets in a game since Halloween. He’s the WR55 this week and shouldn’t be in consideration for your playoff lineup unless you’re truly desperate.
Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders’ dubious streak of games with fewer than 30 receiving yards has now reached five. Don’t play him this week (not that you were actually considering it).
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox: After a slow start last week against the Buccaneers, Knox came on strong and finished with 7-60-1 on nine targets, making him the TE3 for the week. It was Knox’s eight TD catch of the season, and he’s had three in his last three games. Knox is the TE4 in fantasy scoring for the season, and he’s the TE6 this week against the Panthers.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time: Sunday December 19, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Jaguars -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 39.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Jaguars 21.5, Texans 18
Quarterbacks
Davis Mills: Mills may not be the future of the QB position for the Texans, but he doesn’t completely stink. Admittedly, that’s pretty faint praise. But little was expected of the third-rounder from Stanford in his first NFL season, and Mills has actually looked pretty good at times. He completed 33 of 49 passes for 331 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions against the Seahawks last week. It was Mills’ third 300-yard game in seven starts. He’s the QB28 in this week’s rankings, so it’s unlikely you’d ever consider starting Mills in a fantasy playoff game, but he’s at least become an interesting dynasty asset.
Trevor Lawrence: The end of the season can’t come soon enough for Lawrence, who’s thrown one TD pass in his last six games and has averaged 172 passing yards a game over that stretch. Despite being the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Lawrence is the lower-ranked of the two rookie quarterbacks squaring off in this weekend’s Texans-Jaguars game. You don’t want Lawrence in your fantasy lineup this weekend.
Running Backs
David Johnson: Johnson has been activated from the COVID-19 list, and he figures to share work with Royce Freeman now that Rex Burkhead has been ruled out with a groin injury. In Johnson’s most recent game, a Week 12 loss to the Jets, he had 10-39-0 rushing and 2-16-0 receiving. The 39 rushing yards and 55 yards from scrimmage were both season highs for Johnson, who hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. It’s been a dry, dusty season for Johnson, but we can’t completely count out a running back who has a good chance to get 10 or more touches. Johnson is a high-end RB4 this week against the Texans.
Royce Freeman: Last week against the Seahawks, Freeman had 11-15-0 rushing and 6-51-0 receiving. David Johnson missed that game while on the COVID-19 list. A week earlier, in the Texans’ 21-14 loss to the Jets, Johnson and Freeman both played 22 snaps, but Johnson had 10 touches while Freeman had only four. Expect the workload to be divided pretty evenly among the two backs this week, which is why they’re both high-end RB4s in this week’s rankings.
James Robinson: J-Rob has become a source of frustration for his fantasy managers. Well, actually, it’s Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer’s usage of Robinson that’s causing the frustration. In Week 13, Robinson was benched for a long stretch of the Jaguars 37-7 loss to the Rams after losing a fumble. In Week 14, Robinson dominated RB snaps for the Jaguars but had only six carries for four yards. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, Robinson had averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR), so it’s easy to understand why his stakeholders are so dismayed by recent developments. Will Robinson get back on track this week? It’s hard to tell, but he gets a favorable matchup against a Texans defense that’s given up a league-high 1,923 rushing yards and has yielded 22 TD runs. Consider Robinson a mid-range RB2.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks: With rookie Davis Mills making his first start at QB for the Texans since Week 8, Cooks turned in his first 100-yard game since Week 3, producing 8-101-0 on 11 targets. For the season, Cooks has 73-843-3, making him the WR23 in fantasy scoring. He’s the WR26 in this week’s rankings.
Marvin Jones: With a 6-70-0 game against the Titans last week, Jones posted his highest yardage total since Week 6. Never mind that 31 of Jones’ 70 yards came on the final play of the first half with the Titans playing prevent defense. Jones gets a favorable matchup against the Texans this week, but he’s still just a low-end WR4.
Laviska Shenault: Will Shenault score a touchdown in 2021? He still has four games to pull it off. With Shenault averaging 38.8 receiving yards per game and not scoring touchdowns, there’s little here to recommend to fantasy managers. Shenault is ranked outside of WR5 range.
Tight Ends
Brevin Jordan: Since making his NFL debut in Week 8, the rookie fifth-rounder has scored three touchdowns in six games. Jordan hauled in a 5-yard TD pass from Davis Mills last week in the first quarter of the Texans’ 33-13 loss to Seattle and finished with 4-26-1 on seven targets. Jordan is the TE23 this week.
James O’Shaughnessy: Since coming back from a high-ankle sprain in Week 12, O’Shaughnessy has had 9-63-0 in three games. He falls outside TE2 range for Week 15.
