Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Sunday December 12, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -12.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 28, Bears 15.5
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: Bears head coach Matt Nagy has named Fields the starter for Week 14. The rookie had missed the last two games with an injury to his ribs. Although he was showing signs of growth before the injury, Fields isn’t a good fantasy play this week against a Packers defense that has put the clamps on Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson over the last six weeks. When Fields faced the Packers in Week 6, he threw for 174 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He’s the QB26 this week.
Aaron Rodgers: “I own you!” Aaron Rodgers was all too happy to remind Bears fans of his illustrious track record against their team when the Packers went on the road and beat the Bears in Week 6. In 26 career games against the Bears, Rodgers is 21-5 and has thrown 57 TD passes – more than he’s thrown against any other team. Rodgers threw for 195 yards and two TDs in the earlier game against the Bears. He’s been on a roll, with 692 passing yards and six TD passes in his last two starts. He’s the QB6 this week against a Bears defense that ranks 28th in opponent passer rating and is yielding 7.7 yards per pass attempt.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: Montgomery missed practice Wednesday with a potpourri of injuries (shoulder, groin, glute), so investors will have to monitor his status. If he’s fit to play, expect him to see the same meaty workload he’s seen every game since coming back from a knee injury in Week 9. Since then, Montgomery has averaged 19.8 touches and has had no fewer than 15 touches in any of those four games. Montgomery lands at RB15 in this week’s rankings.
Aaron Jones: Jones made an early return from a sprained MCL after missing only one game and had 10-23-0 rushing and no catches against the Rams in Week 12. A.J. Dillon out-snapped Jones 42-40 in that contest. Expect Jones to regain a majority snap share this week against the Bears, but Dillon has earned a significant role in the Green Bay offense and will continue to put a dent in Jones’ fantasy value. Jones is a high-end RB2 this week against the Bears. He had 110 yards from scrimmage and a TD catch vs. Chicago in Week 6.
A.J. Dillon: Over his last five games, the rugged Dillon has produced 76-312-2 rushing and 17-171-1 receiving. That works out to 96.6 yards from scrimmage per game over that stretch. Dillon has carved out a significant role for himself, and he’s become a player fantasy managers are looking to squeeze into their lineups every week. He’s the RB23 in this week’s rankings, and he’s a decent value at $5,900 on DraftKings.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney: After posting back-to-back 100-yard games in Weeks 11-12, Mooney produced only 5-27-0 on a windy, rainy Sunday in Chicago in Week 13. Despite uneven play from the Bears’ quarterbacks – and “uneven” is a rather generous adjective – Mooney has been the WR16 in fantasy scoring since Week 4. He’s the WR25 this week against the Packers. When he faced Green Bay in Week 6, Mooney had 5-45-1 on eight targets.
Allen Robinson: A hamstring injury has kept Robinson out of action since Week 9, but he got in a limited practice Wednesday. In nine games this season, Robinson has 30-339-1 on 50 targets. Even if he plays, he’ll be hard to trust for fantasy purposes against a good Packers defense.
Davante Adams: Adams had 8-104-0 against the Rams last week and has put together two straight 100-yard outings. He’s had at least six receptions in each of his last five games. Adams is averaging 98.5 yards per game this season and had 89 yards on four receptions the last time he faced the Bears back in Week 6. He’s WR2 in this week’s rankings and a good cash-game anchor at $8,600 on DraftKings.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Over his last two games, Valdes-Scantling has 8-173-1 on 19 targets. He’s emerged as the clear No. 2 receiver behind Davante Adams, and if he keeps seeing this many targets, he’s going to have some big games. MVS has an average depth of target of 19.4 yards, and those targets are coming from one of the best deep-ball throwers in NFL history, Aaron Rodgers. Valdes-Scantling is the WR35 this week. His boom-or-bust profile makes him a better fit for GPPs than for cash games at a price of $4,300 on DraftKings.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: Somehow Kmet has zero touchdowns on 40 receptions this season while Bears TE Jimmy Graham has two touchdowns on just seven receptions. Kmet is averaging 33.5 yards per game. He’s the TE18 against a Green Bay defense that’s allowing 6.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Monday December 13, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cardinals -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 27, Rams 24.5
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford: Stafford has thrown TD passes in two straight games, but he has a tough Week 14 matchup against a Cardinals pass defense that ranks third in DVOA and fifth in opponent passer rating. Stafford fared well enough against Arizona back in Week 4, completing 26 of 41 passes for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Protection could be an issue for Stafford this week against a Cardinals defense that’s recorded 32 sacks. The Rams’ offensive line has struggled at times this season, and center Brian Allen and left guard David Edwards are both dealing with injuries. Stafford is a low-end QB1 this week.
Kyler Murray: After missing three games with a high-ankle sprain, Murray returned last week and had an unusual but effective performance against the Bears on an inclement day in Chicago, completing 11 of 15 passes for 123 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, and rushing 10 times for 59 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-22 win over the Bears. This weekend, Murray has a second meeting with the Rams. In the first meeting back in Week 4, he threw for 268 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 37-20 Cardinals win. He also had 6-39-0 rushing. Murray is the QB1 in this week’s rankings.
Running Backs
Darrell Henderson: Henderson has been placed on the COVID-19 list and won’t play in Week 14.
Sony Michel: With Darrell Henderson out with a quad injury last week, Michel ran 21 times for 114 yards and a touchdown in a 37-7 win over the Jaguars, adding three catches for eight yards. Michel looked quick and decisive, and he’ll once again be in a lead role now that Darrell Henderson has been placed on the COVID-19 list. Michel will be facing a Cardinals defense that’s allowed only eight TD runs this season and is giving up just 16.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. He’s a high-end RB2 this week.
James Conner: Chase Edmonds is due back from a high-ankle sprain this week. In Arizona’s first eight games, Edmonds played 56% of the offensive snaps, Conner 42%. It seems fair to wonder if the previous division of labor still applies, or if Conner has earned a majority share of snaps. In the four games Edmonds has missed – we’ll include Week 9, when Edmonds got hurt on his first snap – Conner has had 72-272-4 rushing and 15-175-2 receiving. As good as Conner has looked in the passing game, perhaps obvious passing downs will no longer belong exclusively to Edmonds. Regard Conner as a high-end RB2 this week.
Chase Edmonds: Edmonds hasn’t played since the first quarter of the Cardinals’ Week 9 game when he sustained a high-ankle sprain. He was the RB20 in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) through the first eight weeks of the season, averaging 79.8 yards from scrimmage. Edmonds’ versatile skill set will again give him RB2 value if he gets his old workload back, but that’s no guarantee as well as James Conner played in Edmonds’ absence – particularly in the passing game. Edmonds is a dicey play this week with his usage uncertain. Regard him as a low-end RB3 this week vs. the Rams.
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp: When Kupp faced the Cardinals in Week 4, he had his worst game of the season, with 5-64-0 receiving on 13 targets. Kupp spent much of that game going up against Arizona’s Byron Murphy, who’s become one of the better cover men in the league. This will be a fun rematch, and it seems unwise to bet against a revenge game for Kupp, who hit the 100-catch mark last week and has 1,366 receiving yards and 11 TD catches on the year. Kupp remains the WR1 in this week’s rankings despite the tough individual matchup.
Van Jefferson: Jefferson has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games, and his fantasy stock continues to ascend. Over his last six games, he’s had 22-360-3 on 44 targets, good for an average of 10.4 fantasy points per game. He figures to draw Cardinals CB Robert Alford on a lot of his routes this week – not an easy matchup. Jefferson is a high-end WR3 this week.
Odell Beckham: In three games with the Rams, Beckham has 9-127-2 on 18 targets. He’s had a TD catch in each of his last two games, and his 1-yard touchdown against Jacksonville last week was vintage OBJ, with Beckham high-pointing an end-zone fade over Jaguars CB Nevin Lawson. Consider Beckham a midrange WR3 this week against the Cardinals.
DeAndre Hopkins: After missing three games with a hamstring injury, Hopkins’ first catch in his return was a 20-yard touchdown on which he made a nice lunging grab of a Kyler Murray throw and managed to stay inside the pylon before falling out of bounds. Hopkins had only one more catch all day in a rainy game in Chicago, but the Cardinals only needed to throw 15 times in a 33-22 win. Hopkins still hasn’t seen double-digit targets in a game this season and still hasn’t had a 100-yard game. When the Cardinals face the Rams this weekend, expect Rams CB Jalen Ramsey to be on Hopkins for most of his routes. When these two teams played in Week 4, Hopkins had 4-67-0 on seven targets. Hopkins is a high-end WR2 this week.
Christian Kirk: Kirk got off to a fast start this season, but his production has tapered off. He’s topped 60 receiving yards once in his last six games and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Oct. 24. In fairness, Kyler Murray missed three of those games with a high-ankle sprain. Week 14 brings a rematch with the Cardinals, and in the first meeting in Week 4, Kirk had just one catch for five yards. Kirk lands at WR38 in this week’s rankings.
A.J. Green: The last time the Cardinals faced the Rams, Green had the best game among the Arizona receivers, with 5-67-1 on six targets. Green ranks WR44 in fantasy scoring, and he’s the WR50 in this week’s rankings.
Rondale Moore: You simply can’t play Moore if you really need to win this week. Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is making an effort to scheme the ball into Moore’s hands, but the rookie has topped 25 receiving yards just once in his last seven games, and he’s averaging just 5.6 yards per catch over that span. Moore isn’t even a top-60 receiver this week.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee: Higbee had 5-48-0 last week on six targets. It wasn’t exactly a big day, but it was Higbee’s third-highest yardage output of the season. He’s the TE18 in fantasy scoring this year, and he’s the TE17 in this week’s rankings against a Cardinals defense that’s giving up 5.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Zach Ertz: Ertz had just one catch for 10 yards last week, but Cardinals QB Kyler Murray attempted only 15 passes in a rainy 33-22 win over the Bears. Ertz has averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game since joining the Cardinals in Week 7. He’s the TE9 this week vs. the Rams.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Date/Time: Thursday December 9, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Vikings -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Vikings 23.25, Steelers 20.25
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger: As we near the likely end of Roethlisberger’s tenure in Pittsburgh, I’m sure this isn’t exactly the way that he would want to go out from a statistical perspective. He’s averaging just 250 passing yards per game so far this season, only 6.6 Yards Per Attempt, and he only has 16 passing touchdowns on the year through 11 games. He was able to put up a top-10 fantasy performance in Week 13 against the Ravens, but trying to predict when those types of performances are coming is an absolute nightmare for fantasy managers. He has a favorable matchup this week against the Vikings defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, but he’s also reportedly banged up and might not be at 100%. Big Ben can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end QB2 this week.
Kirk Cousins: Did you know that Cousins has finished outside the top-15 QBs just once since Week 5?! He’s been one of fantasy football’s most consistent contributors at the QB position this season and he’s now the QB8 on the year after 13 weeks. He’s worth considering every single week as a QB1 and this week is no exception, despite the loss of Adam Thielen. The Steelers defense used to be an extremely tough matchup for opposing QBs, but they’ve taken a bit of a step back this season. They were able to keep Lamar Jackson in check this past week, but that’s another conversation for another day. Otherwise, they’ve been susceptible to solid passing games and they’re allowing 19.8 fantasy points per game this year to the QB position. Cousins can be started yet again as a low-end QB1.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: We’re now through 13 weeks of the 2021 NFL season and the Steelers are certainly utilizing their first-round investment. Harris has logged a total of 275 touches already up to this point of the season and he’s been everything – and more – that fantasy managers were hoping for when they selected him in their drafts this off-season. While he hasn’t been overly efficient with his opportunity this season, the volume is too much to really be overly concerned with the lack of high-level production. Looking ahead to Week 14, he gets a matchup against the Vikings defense that is currently a top-10 matchup for opposing RBs this season with an average of 17.5 points per game allowed. Harris can be started as a mid-range RB1 yet again this week due to his ridiculous workload.
Alexander Mattison: In the three games that Dalvin Cook has missed this season, Mattison has not finished worse than the RB9 in Half PPR scoring formats. He has essentially been a one-for-one replacement of Cook in fantasy lineups and he’s playing his way into a large contract when he hits free agency eventually in 2023. The Steelers have typically been viewed as a tough defense to go up against, but over the course of the past five weeks, they are a bottom-5 fantasy DST. They’ve been gashed by opposing RBs recently and Mattison should have plenty of room to rumble again in this one. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB1 as long as Cook is out of the lineup. Update: Dalvin Cook is reportedly trending towards playing. If so, this would move Mattison back to a complementary role and back to fantasy football benches.
Dalvin Cook: It seemed like a foregone conclusion earlier on this week that Cook was going to miss this contest against Pittsburgh. With battling through injury, it seemed like there was no earthly way that Cook would return to the Vikings lineup on a short week, but it’s looking like that was a big assumption to make. Word over the last 24 hours is signaling that Cook is trending towards playing in this matchup against the Steelers, which would be a huge boon for struggling fantasy managers that have him on their bench. If Cook does end up playing Thursday evening, he needs to be in your starting lineups due to the matchup and he can be viewed as a mid-range RB1.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: Do you remember when people had major concerns about Johnson’s drops in 2020? Fantasy managers knew that he was going to see a ridiculous workload, but he was downgraded in pre-draft rankings slightly because of this concern. Now through 11 games in 2021, he has seen 119 targets and has only been credited with 2 drops on the year, according to PFF. The amount of volume that Johnson sees in this offense is astounding and he’s currently top-4 in targets at the WR position, despite playing one less game than the players above him on that list. Johnson is a top-10 fantasy WR on the season now and there’s no reason why he should ever be out of starting lineups for the remainder of the year. Against the defense that’s allowing the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, Johnson’s a borderline top-5 play.
Chase Claypool: At the beginning of the season, there was some optimism that Claypool would be able to step forward and become a reliable and consistent receiving option opposite of Diontae Johnson in this offense. While Claypool’s talent has continued to flash at several points throughout this season, he’s become more of a boom-or-bust downfield threat for Big Ben versus a consistent option. Over his last three games, he’s averaging just 3.33 receptions per game, but those catches have gone for an average of 22.7 Yards Per Reception. He has the potential to reel in any downfield throw for a big play, which could push a fantasy lineup over the top, but we do need to adjust how we view him moving forward. For Week 14, in a very favorable matchup, Claypool can be viewed as a mid-range WR3 with upside.
Justin Jefferson: Back in Week 8, Jefferson scored only 3 Half PPR fantasy points and he was clearly frustrated with the lack of opportunity in this Vikings offense. Since that point, he is the WR1 in fantasy football and it’s not even close. Jefferson has 108.5 fantasy points over the past five weeks, with an average of 21.7 points per game, while the next closest WR is Elijah Moore with 86.3 fantasy points. With Thielen out of the lineup now for this game – and potentially a few more – Jefferson should continue to see a significant target share and produce absurd numbers. He can be started as a top-3 fantasy wideout this week against Pittsburgh.
Kj Osborn: With Thielen out for this game – and most likely next week as well – Osborn is going to step up into a larger role in this Minnesota offense. We’ve seen that he can be productive so far this season when he’s given the opportunity, but he’s been further down the target share tree distribution order when everyone’s healthy. In this matchup against the Steelers secondary that’s allowing 21.8 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, Osborn’s a solid mid-range WR3 play with upside.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth: Did you know that Week 13 was only the second time in Freiermuth’s last 7 games where he has finished outside the top-12 TEs in Half PPR scoring? He’s emerged as an extremely reliable fantasy asset recently – which is extremely rare for a rookie TE to accomplish – and we shouldn’t read too much into his lackluster performance last week against the Ravens. The Steelers should be able to move the ball freely against the Vikings this week and Freiermuth should remain an integral part of the game plan. With his contested catch ability, plus Roethlisberger’s chemistry with him in the red zone, Freiermuth is always a good bet to reel in a touchdown or two. Fire him up as a mid-range/low-end TE1.
Tyler Conklin: Conklin hasn’t been a model of consistency at the TE position recently, but when Jefferson and Thielen are both active and healthy, there’s very little work leftover for the fourth-year TE out of Central Michigan. However, we now know that Thielen is going to be out for this matchup with an ankle injury, which opens things up for Conklin. There’s a strong possibility that Osborn takes a significant step forward though, so we can’t assume that all of the work is going to fall into Conklin’s lap. However, he should see an uptick in work and there’s certainly value in that at the TE position currently. Conklin can be viewed as a high-end TE2 for Week 14 against Pittsburgh.
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