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One of the great traditions in sports is when the newly anointed NHL champions pass around the Stanley Cup so each member of the team can take a turn skating around the rink holding aloft the beloved trophy.
It’s the victory lap.
Auto racing is another sport where the victory lap is a grand tradition. It gives the driver a chance to bask in the afterglow of a hard-earned win, and it gives fans a chance to honor the winning driver with applause.
We have victory laps in fantasy football, too. They’re just not quite as glorious.
The biggest thrill in fantasy football is winning a league championship, of course. But that can only happen once a year, and it can only happen for one member of any league. The more common thrill in fantasy is being right about a player evaluation. You loved a player, you touted him, you drafted him, and he succeeded. Woo-hoo!
Fantasy analysts tend to take a lot of victory laps, and they take them on Twitter for their followers to see. The fantasy analyst’s job is to evaluate players. When an analyst nails an evaluation, he/she wants to celebrate. If you hit a home run, why run around the bases with your head down like Hank Aaron when you can do a theatrical bat flip like Bryce Harper and circle the bases in style?
Javonte Williams‘ epic Week 13 performance prompted a great deal of victory lapping. There were so many Javonte Williams victory laps on Twitter the day after, it felt like a Central Park jogging path on a Saturday morning.
It was understandable. There was a lot of pent-up excitement for a Javonte breakthrough after 12 weeks of load-sharing with Melvin Gordon. Javonte is a talented young running back with a bright future. He seems like a nice kid, too. He even gives Uber rides to defenders.
With Gordon sidelined by a hip injury last week, Williams had the Broncos’ backfield mostly to himself in a nationally televised Sunday-night game against the Chiefs and rolled up 178 yards from scrimmage plus a touchdown. It was a convincing performance, to say the least.
The fantasy analysts who were all in on Javonte in the spring and summer really wanted you to know they were all in on Javonte. We see it with myriad other players, too. A player succeeds. The analyst who touted the player then touts his own toutsmanship.
Honestly, I don’t mind all the victory lapping. It’s entertaining. But it’s also entertaining when followers or other analysts call out victory lappers for their victory lapping – or, better yet, when they produce receipts showing that a victory lapper really has nothing to lap about. Maybe a follower digs up an old set of rookie rankings to prove that an analyst victory lapping over Javonte Williams actually had Michael Carter ranked higher back in April. Scandalous!
As entertaining as I find all of this, I generally try to avoid victory laps. (Note the word “try.”) Mainly, it’s because I get a lot of things wrong, and if I try to shine the klieg lights on the few things I got right, someone is inevitably going to tap me on the shoulder and point out all the blunders. Besides, I’m not sure what I’d want to victory lap.
Well, actually …
I liked Jonathan Taylor last year. This was no Herculean feat of analysis, given that I’m a University of Wisconsin grad and had seen every college game Taylor had ever played. His talents were obvious. Still, I was above consensus on him in the summer draft rankings, and I often talked about him on my podcast and on other people’s podcasts.
But did the touting of Taylor really help anyone last year? For the first 10 weeks of the season, Taylor was pretty meh. He was doing just enough that people wanted to keep putting him in their lineups, but not enough to actually help those people win their games. By the time Taylor hit the turbo button in December, a lot of his fantasy managers were already sitting on 5-7 records and deriving no benefit from all those touchdowns and 100-yard games. When I touted Taylor during the summer, it implied that I expected him to be helpful in September and October, not just down the stretch. Hell, maybe I actually led people astray.
That’s sort of what’s happening with Javonte this year. Entering Week 13, he was the RB28 in fantasy scoring. If you drafted him in the fifth round, you certainly hadn’t turned a profit. The fantasy analysts touting Javonte were convinced that he was terrific, and they were right. But they also probably believed that Javonte would shove Melvin Gordon aside and be Denver’s lead back by the time we carved our Halloween pumpkins. Didn’t happen. So maybe the Javonte Williams victory lappers shouldn’t be victory lapping after all?
Hmm.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to take some banana bread out of the oven. If it turns out well, I’m taking a victory lap around the block.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
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New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets
Date/Time: Sunday December 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Saints 24, Jets 19
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill: It’s quite possible that Hill’s finger injury that he suffered during the game last week hampered his ability to accurately distribute the ball, but it wasn’t exactly all sunshine and roses in his first start of the season. Hill completed under 50% of his passes, he averaged 6.4 Yards Per Attempt, and he had two touchdowns to four interceptions. This stat line would normally cause us to look elsewhere for the starting QB spot in our fantasy rosters, but Hill still ended the week as a top-5 fantasy option because of his rushing ability. Hill was able to add on 101 rushing yards on 11 rush attempts and that’s simply a cheat code for fantasy football. Now up against the New York Jets this week, Hill deserves to be plugged right back into starting lineups as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.
Zach Wilson: Wilson was by no means perfect in Week 13, but he did take significant strides forward and he played well within the Jets offensive system. He only had 226 passing yards, but he accounted for three total touchdowns and was a fine fantasy asset against the Eagles. With that being said, this is exciting for Wilson’s fantasy managers in Dynasty Superflex leagues, but we should not be racing out to plug him into our starting lineups just yet in redraft formats. He can be viewed as a high-end QB3 this week against the Saints.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: It’s been a while since we’ve seen Kamara on the football field, but there is optimism at the time of writing that he’ll be able to return for this matchup against the Jets. New York has been destroyed by opposing RBs so far this season and Kamara’s going to be walking back into an extremely favorable spot. With his talent level, plus the matchup, we should have zero concerns about dropping AK back into our lineups as a top-5 RB. The Jets are allowing 26.8 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season and there’s the possibility that Kamara hits that mark on his own this week, assuming he’s at full strength. Start him with confidence.
Mark Ingram: Ingram had high expectations placed on him last week with Kamara ruled out and he wasn’t able to come through for fantasy managers. Ingram had 10 rush attempts for just 28 yards against Dallas and he added one reception for -2 yards. Now, we’re likely to see Kamara come back into the lineup, which eliminates the upside Ingram has in this particular matchup against the Jets. If Kamara plays, we can move Ingram back into high-end RB3 territory in our Week 14 rankings. If Kamara isn’t ready to come back yet though, Ingram would move back into top-15 territory purely because of the enticing matchup.
Tevin Coleman: Coleman has been ruled out with a concussion.
Ty Johnson: With Tevin Coleman ruled out with a concussion, Johnson figures to be the Jets’ lead back against the Saints this week, although that might not be an especially lucrative role in a matchup against one of the best run defenses in the league. Austin Walter figures to get some touches for the Jets, too. Consider Johnson a midrange RB3 with upside.
Wide Receivers
Tre’Quan Smith: Smith saw an impressive seven targets in Week 13 against Dallas, but it turned into just two receptions for 15 yards. There was a period where Smith was starting to develop into a very solid fantasy option, but he’s now finished as the WR54 and the WR70 in the past two games. He can be viewed as a low-end FLEX due to the matchup against New York, but he has the potential to disappoint yet again.
Elijah Moore: Moore has been placed on injured reserve with a quad injury. This is obvious a big blow to fantasy managers who were counting on the red-hot Moore to help them down the stretch.
Jamison Crowder: Crowder disappointed in Week 12, but he bounced back nicely in Week 13 with four receptions for 62 yards on six targets. With Corey Davis and Elijah Moore now sidelined for the remainder of the year, Crowder becomes a viable WR3 option this week and beyond.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Date/Time: Sunday December 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Panthers -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Panthers 22.5, Falcons 20
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan: Ryan’s yardage totals picked back up in Week 14 to the tune of 297, but he still finished the week outside the top-20 QBs due to zero passing touchdowns. While it’s an encouraging sign that Ryan was able to start moving the ball through the air again, there’s very little upside to playing him at any point moving forward due to the lack of proven receiving threats in this offense. The Panthers are allowing just 17.3 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season, which is one of the fewest in the league, so we should most likely be looking elsewhere in our 1QB leagues. Ryan can be viewed as a low-end QB2.
Cam Newton: Well, things weren’t exactly great the last time that we saw Cam on the field. Newton completed just five of his 21 pass attempts in Week 12 against Miami and he had two interceptions as well. While he “saved” his fantasy day by finding the end zone as a runner, it was a historically poor performance. Newton posted a 5.8 NFL Passer Rating against the Dolphins, which was low enough to account for a bottom-40 performance all-time for QBs with a minimum of 20 pass attempts. Normally, we would completely write off a QB after this type of performance, but Newton comes out of the bye week and gets to take on the Atlanta Falcons defense. The Falcons are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and they’re allowing 23.8 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, which is one of the highest marks in the league. It is a complete gamble to plug Newton in your lineup and I would not recommend it for the faint of heart, but the path is there for Cam to be a top-12 option in Week 14.
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson continued to be an extremely productive RB this past week against the formidable Bucs defense. He was able to average 6.0 Yards Per Attempt on 13 carries and he added an additional 18 yards through the air as well. Over his last two games, Patterson has totaled 214 yards of offense, which is five fewer than Najee Harris‘ rushing yards over the past four weeks. Patterson’s been a dominant option out of the backfield for Atlanta and he’s been the secret to them moving the ball on offense. Looking ahead to Week 14, Atlanta gets to take on the Panthers’ defense that is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Normally, this would be a daunting task, but we just witnessed Patterson get the job done against another dominant unit in Tampa Bay. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB1 in this one.
Chuba Hubbard: With Christian McCaffrey on IR yet again, we’re going to see Hubbard step back into the starting role for the Panthers’ offense. Unfortunately, this Panthers offense isn’t exactly what we would all call high-powered, right? Even when Hubbard was stepping in for CMC and carrying the majority of the workload out of the backfield for Carolina, it’s important to remember that he wasn’t a top-tier fantasy asset. Hubbard has not finished better than the RB19 at any point this season and the offense was at least functional at that point of the year. This matchup against Atlanta is intriguing, but we should be exercising caution with Hubbard as we look to set our lineups this week. He should see plenty of work on the ground, but he could easily surrender goal-line work to Cam and then could also watch Abdullah step in as the receiving back if Carolina starts playing from behind. He’s a high-end RB3 at best in Week 14.
Ameer Abdullah: Abdullah stepped in as the primary receiving back for this offense when CMC went down in Week 12, but he was unable to do much with the QB play. It’s still worth noting that he saw six targets on only 27 snaps, so there’s the possibility that he becomes a key part of the offense moving forward if we can see the QB play take even a small step forward. He’s unlikely to see a ton of work though unless the Panthers fall into catch-up mode, so he’s a volatile fantasy option for Week 14. He’s worth stashing through this week in Full PPR formats just to see how the snap rotation breaks down between him and Hubbard, but we shouldn’t be relying on him as anything more than a low-end RB3 in such a crucial week.
Wide Receivers
Russell Gage: Over the past three weeks, Gage has seen 27 targets and has 241 yards to show for it. He’s become an incredibly reliable receiving threat for the Falcons over the middle of the field and he’s producing for fantasy football. With 32 Half PPR points in the past two games alone, he’s moving up into must-start territory. With the Falcons needing to throw the ball a ton due to the state of their team, Gage should continue to soak up targets moving forward and that comes with an incredibly high floor for fantasy football. The upside might not be there as much as the previous two weeks due to the matchup against Carolina, but he’s an extremely safe play at this point of the season. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR3.
DJ Moore: Do you remember that three-week stretch where Moore finished inside the top-12 WRs each game? From Weeks 2-4, Moore didn’t finish worse than the WR12 in Half PPR scoring formats and all was right with the world. Since that point though, Moore has not finished higher than the WR22 in Half PPR scoring formats and he has several performances outside of the top-40. While he certainly has not been what fantasy managers were hoping for after that dominant stretch towards the start of the season, Moore is still providing a high enough floor to still consider him in starting lineups. Over the past two games, Moore has finished as the WR22 exactly both games and he has 26 Half PPR points over that time frame. In a matchup now against the Falcons, who are allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, Moore should be considered a low-end WR2. There’s the possibility that Newton struggles as a passer yet again in this one, which makes Moore a volatile option, but the upside is there because of the matchup.
Robby Anderson: The matchup is enticing for fantasy managers with Carolina taking on Atlanta’s secondary, but Anderson has done essentially next to nothing at this point of the season. With the QB play concerns, we shouldn’t view Anderson as anything more than a boom-or-bust FLEX option in deeper formats.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: It has now been six weeks since Pitts recorded more than 8 Half PPR fantasy points in a single game. While he still continues to see a significant target share in this offense, he’s simply not producing enough to continue to view him as a top-tier fantasy asset. He’s still seeing north of five targets per game recently and we know that he has the talent to be a big-play threat, but we can’t view him as a top-5 play anymore moving forward. Against Carolina, who is allowing just 5.3 fantasy points on average to the TE position, Pitts can be viewed as a low-end TE1.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans
Date/Time: Sunday December 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Seahawks -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 41.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Seahawks 24.5, Texans 17
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: We certainly should not be ready to make the call that Russ is back, but the Seahawks offense did look much improved last week over what we had seen from them recently. Wilson only posted 231 passing yards and 6.2 Yards Per Attempt, but he was able to connect with his receivers for two touchdowns and his one interception really should have been a third touchdown. If Gerald Everett catches that layup throw versus bobbling it and handing it right to the defender, this is a very solid performance from Russ and we have a very different perception of him heading into this dream matchup against Houston. The Texans have struggled as a defense all season long and we could see this Seahawks offense truly get back on track in Week 14. He’s a volatile option because of the lack of top-tier production over the past month, but Wilson deserves to be considered for starting lineups this week. The matchup is simply too good to pass up.
Davis Mills: With Tyrod Taylor out with yet another injury, Mills is going to be asked to step back in as the starter for Houston. Unfortunately, we know that Mills is not in a situation where we can even consider him for fantasy football and he can be left on waiver wires everywhere.
Running Backs
Rashaad Penny: Penny was the best RB on the field for Seattle this past week, but that’s not exactly calling him Barry Sanders. He saw 10 carries to Adrian Peterson‘s 11 and he averaged just 3.5 YPC with the opportunity. Normally, we wouldn’t be talking about Penny as a potential starter for fantasy lineups, but the matchup against Houston this week is too good to ignore. The Texans are allowing 125.6 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, which is the highest mark in the NFL through 13 weeks. Penny’s always a risky play due to his propensity to head to the sideline with an injury, but if you’re truly in a pinch and you need a fill-in option, Penny’s almost certainly available on your waiver wire.
Alex Collins: Collins missed Week 13 with an abdomen issue, but he’s been cleared to play on Sunday. He’s gone five games without a touchdown and hasn’t topped 44 rushing yards over that span, and it’s possible he’ll cede the lead role to Rashaad Penny, who’s shown more juice. Collins is merely a midrange RB4 this week.
Adrian Peterson: The recently signed Peterson has a back issue and won’t play in Week 14.
Rex Burkhead: Burkhead had the entire backfield to himself last week and it resulted in just 5 Half PPR points. This offense is not creating enough scoring opportunities for Burkhead to even fall into the end zone and he’s nothing more than a low-end RB3 with very little upside moving forward.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf: It was a rough few weeks for Metcalf and his fantasy managers. From Weeks 10-12, Metcalf did not record more than 31 receiving yards in any single game. Over that time span, he accounted for just 70 total receiving yards and things were not looking good for the star wideout. Metcalf got back on track a little bit this past week against San Francisco though as he saw eight targets and reeled in five of them for 60 yards. While he still hasn’t found the end zone since Week 8, it’s a step in the right direction. Looking ahead to Week 14, Metcalf certainly belongs back in starting lineups against the Texans secondary that’s allowing 20.9 fantasy points per game. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 with upside.
Tyler Lockett: There are certain moments that happen throughout the course of an NFL season where you stop and realize just how wacky fantasy football is sometimes. There have been several of those moments throughout 2021 – seemingly more than normal – but one of those is the fact that Metcalf has turned into the volatile receiving option in Seattle recently and Lockett’s been incredibly consistent. Over the last three weeks, Lockett is averaging 93 receiving yards per game and he’s finished as a top-30 WR each of those games. We’re used to Lockett presenting massive upside, but also coming with an incredibly low floor week in and week out. That isn’t happening here lately and he’s worth plugging into your lineup confidently this week against the Texans defense that’s struggling to stop anyone this season. He can be viewed as a high-end WR2.
Dee Eskridge: Eskridge was able to log his first NFL touchdown this past week and he’s now starting to get more and more acclimated with the Seattle offense. While he still is seeing Freddie Swain out-snap him, he’s being targeted when he’s on the field. He’s not worth playing in redraft leagues just yet, but if he has another solid performance here in this game against Houston, he could become an intriguing deep-league option in the fantasy playoffs.
Brandin Cooks: At one point this year, Cooks was viewed as one of the safest options at the WR position. There wasn’t much upside with him being in this offense, but we at least felt comfortable that he wasn’t going to hurt our lineups week in and week out. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case with Cooks. He has topped 40 receiving yards just once over the past three weeks and he’s finished outside the top-40 WRs in two of those games. With Tyrod now out of the lineup indefinitely and the Texans being forced to turn back to Davis Mills, there’s very little suggesting that we should be confident in starting Cooks as anything more than a low-end WR3 moving forward.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett: Everett has been one of the more consistent options for Seattle over the past few weeks and he could have had a decent fantasy outing last week against San Francisco, but he ended up dropping a wide-open touchdown that turned into an interception. There are better options to turn to at the TE position now for fantasy football and Everett’s nothing more than a low-end TE2.
