Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sunday December 5, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -9.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 47 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 28.25, Broncos 18.75
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater: Bridgewater was able to find the end zone last week on a scramble drill, which helped boost his fantasy output, but he also got a little banged up in that contest against Los Angeles. There’s no guarantee that Bridgewater is going to even be well enough to play in this game against KC, but if he does he’s unlikely to be at 100%. The Chiefs defense has tightened things up here recently and Bridgewater should be viewed as nothing more than a mid-range/low-end QB2 in this one.
Patrick Mahomes: Did you know that Mahomes has finished outside the top-20 QBs on the week in three of his last five games? Yes, Mahomes has a QB1 finish on the week sprinkled in there, but he’s been a major disappointment in recent weeks versus the slam dunk option we thought we were getting when we drafted him in August. There’s the possibility that the Chiefs took time to reconfigure their offense coming out of the bye week – and you’re never really sitting Mahomes in your fantasy lineups – but we at least need to recognize that there’s been a low floor with the star QB recently. In a matchup against the Broncos defense that’s allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, we shouldn’t be viewing Mahomes as the unquestioned QB1 on the week.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon: The Broncos were able to lean on their run game last week and Gordon put together a solid performance with 17 carries for 83 yards. While he watched Williams and Bridgewater each find the end zone against the Chargers, he still provided a high floor for fantasy managers. This backfield continues to remain essentially a completely even split, which hurts both Gordon and Williams’ upside. The Chiefs are middle of the pack when it comes to slowing down opposing RBs from a fantasy perspective, so we shouldn’t expect a blow-up performance here from either player. Gordon can remain a solid floor play in fantasy lineups as a low-end RB2. Update: Gordon is now listed as OUT for Sunday’s matchup.
Javonte Williams: Williams came through for fantasy managers last week in a plus matchup against the Chargers. He finished with 14 carries for 54 yards and a score, while also adding 3 receptions for 57 yards through the air on four targets. It continues to be a highly discussed topic that Williams could be a league winner if something happens to Gordon in this backfield, but he’s going to continue to be just a low-end RB2 in the meantime. Against the Chiefs, Williams can be started as a high floor option that can hopefully see his involvement in the receiving game continue. Update: Gordon is now listed as out, which means that Williams is going to get the clear majority of the work in this backfield. He can be viewed as a high-end RB2 with upside.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: CEH was out-snapped by Darrel Williams in Week 11 before the bye week, but it certainly didn’t affect the opportunity share for Edwards-Helaire coming off of the injury. CEH saw 14 total opportunities (targets + carries) against Dallas, while Williams only totaled six. There were plenty of questions surrounding what this backfield was going to look like when both options were healthy and we got clarity that this is CEH’s backfield. He looked great running the ball after spending some time on IR and he was able to cash in and find the end zone as well, which was something he had rarely done prior to his injury. Now, CEH gets to take on a Broncos defense that has been a bit up-and-down when it comes to defending opposing RBs. They’re allowing 15.6 fantasy points per game though, which is around the middle of the pack, and there’s very little reason that we should be concerned about starting the second-year RB in this matchup. CEH can be viewed as a mid-range RB2.
Darrel Williams: Williams played 53% of the snaps in Week 11 compared to CEH’s 47%, but Williams did next to nothing in the game against Dallas. He touched the ball just six times in that contest and saw Edwards-Helaire step right back in and take over the backfield. Williams remains one of fantasy football’s high-level insurance RBs, so he needs to remain on rosters everywhere, but we shouldn’t be considering him for starting lineups this week outside of a desperation play.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy: WR57, WR22, WR39, and WR66. These are the fantasy finishes for Jeudy over the last four weeks. While Jeudy continues to be one of the league’s best route-runners and most talented wideouts, he is simply is not high-powered enough of an offense to return WR2 value every single week. With the Broncos being committed to the run game when they can, plus the competition for targets now with everyone healthy, Jeudy doesn’t have the ability to turn his limited opportunity into top-tier fantasy production. At this point, Jeudy is the only Broncos WR we can trust in our lineups and that’s as nothing more than a low-end WR3.
Courtland Sutton: If I told you that Sutton had 7 receptions for 95 yards and zero touchdowns, you’d probably think that was a solid one-game outing, right? Unfortunately, that is not just one game’s production for Sutton but his last four combined. He’s had just 15 Half PPR fantasy points over his last four games and he is crushing fantasy lineups where he’s still being started. Sutton remains one of the league’s premier downfield threats, but this offense simply has too many other mouths to feed to provide him sustainable fantasy production. At this point, Sutton needs to be downgraded significantly in lineups until we start to see things turn around. There’s the possibility that the Broncos have to throw the ball more this week to keep up with the Chiefs, which could lead to more opportunity for Sutton, but it’s a big question mark right now as to whether or not that production goes Sutton’s way or another player in this offense. He should be viewed as a high-end FLEX play in Week 13 and we might need to have a larger conversation regarding Sutton this time next week if he doesn’t come through here.
Tim Patrick: Patrick remains one of the league’s most underrated WRs and he’s played his way into a large contract extension this season. However, this offense is not built to provide him weekly fantasy value when everyone’s healthy. Now that Sutton, Jeudy, Fant, Gordon, Williams, and Okwuegbunam are all in the lineup, there’s very little upside to playing Patrick. There’s always the possibility that he comes away with a touchdown in this game that could turn into a shootout, but that’s a major question mark. If he doesn’t, you’ll most likely be disappointed you played him. He can be viewed as a high-end FLEX option in Week 13.
Tyreek Hill: Did you know that Hill has more finishes this year outside of the top-12 than he does inside it? In his 11 games this season, Hill has cracked the top-12 just five times and hasn’t necessarily brought as much consistency as we once thought was a sure thing. He still obviously comes with week-winning upside in every single matchup, so we’re never considering sitting the speedy wideout, but it’s interesting to note that he’s not exactly as consistent as we might think. Looking ahead to Week 13, the Broncos are middle of the pack when it comes to slowing down opposing WRs and they’ll almost assuredly have a plan in place for containing Hill. You’re obviously still starting the star WR, but we might need to downgrade him slightly to mid-range WR1 status versus a top-3 option.
Mecole Hardman: At this point, Hardman is not really worth holding onto in fantasy leagues outside of an insurance policy for Hill. Even then though, there’s no guarantee that Hardman becomes an instant top-24 fantasy WR.
Byron Pringle: Pringle finished third on the Chiefs last game in receiving yardage, but that was just with two targets and one catch to his name. Pringle’s not worth rostering outside of deep Dynasty formats.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant: Earlier on this season, Fant was seeing north of 7 or 8 targets regularly with so many proven receiving options out of the lineup. However, he has now seen just 14 targets over his last three games and has less than 15 receiving yards in two of those performances. There’s the possibility that the Broncos need Fant more in this outing against their division rival, but fantasy managers have to ask themselves what the upside is to playing him at this point? There’s enough going against him to downgrade him to a mid-range TE2 for Week 13.
Travis Kelce: This is absolutely ridiculous. Kelce has finished worse than the TE8 on the week just twice this season. Take a second and re-read that sentence and then you’ll have an even greater appreciation for Kelce and what he does on the football field. Regardless of how tough the matchup, there’s no way we can view Kelce as anything less than the TE1 every single week in fantasy.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Monday December 6, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Patriots -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Patriots 23, Bills 20.5
Quarterback
Mac Jones: Jones is strengthening his Rookie of the Year candidacy. He’s helped the Patriots rattle off six consecutive wins. Over his last three outings, he’s completed 79.0% of his passes for 715 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. He has a difficult matchup Monday night against a Bills defense that ranks first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and opponent passer rating. Buffalo is giving up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, has yielded a league-low eight TD passes, and has recorded 16 interceptions. However, the Bills have lost ace CB Tre’Davious White to a torn ACL. Jones checks in at QB19.
Josh Allen: Monday night’s Patriots-Bills showdown features arguably the two best pass defenses in the league. New England ranks second behind Buffalo in pass defense DVOA and opponent passer rating. The Patriots are giving up only 13.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Allen leads all quarterbacks with 24.7 fantasy points per game, and he’s coming off a 260-yard, four-TD game against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. You’re obviously playing Allen in season-long leagues despite the tough matchup. He’s the QB3 in this week’s rankings.
Running Backs
Damien Harris: Harris’s fantasy value has become increasingly TD-dependent, but … well, he keeps scoring touchdowns. Harris has crossed the goal line eight times this year and has scored seven TDs in his last seven games. But after averaging 95.7 rushing yards over a three-game stretch from Week 6 to Week 8, Harris has averaged just 42.0 rushing yards over his last three games. That’s largely because he’s now sharing the rushing load with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris out-snapped Stevenson in Week 12, but only by a two-snap margin. Harris continues to get the vast majority of carries close to the goal line, however. He’s the RB24 this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Over his last four games, Stevenson has produced 51-277-2 rushing and 7-64-0 receiving. He’s averaged 5.4 yards per carry over that span. The rookie is a good one, and he’s forced his way into a time-share with Damien Harris and passing-down back Brandon Bolden. Harris is the RB26 this week against a Bills run defense that’s been terrific against most opponents this year but was steamrolled by Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.
Devin Singletary: Entering Week 12, there was a lot of buzz about Matt Breida‘s emergence in the Buffalo backfield, but Devin Singletary was the Bills’ lead RB in their Thanksgiving night win over the Saints. Singletary had 15-44-0 rushing against the tough New Orleans run defense and added 1-4-0 receiving. He out-snapped Breida 45-21 and ran routes on 65% of Josh Allen‘s dropbacks. That’s a potentially valuable workload, even if it didn’t amount to much in Week 12 against a strong defense. Singletary has another tough matchup this week against the Patriots. He’s a midrange RB3 for Week 13.
Matt Breida: Although he played behind Devin Singletary in Week 12, Breida has gained a firm foothold in the Buffalo offense and should be rostered in leagues with 12 or more teams. He’s scored three touchdowns since becoming part of the RB rotation in Week 10. Over his last three games, Breida has 17-105-1 rushing and 6-67-2 receiving. He’s the RB33 this week.
Wide Receivers
Kendrick Bourne: Bourne has been putting together one of the stealthiest WR2 seasons in recent memory. He’s currently the WR2 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, averaging 10.3 points per game. He’s only averaging 4.4 targets per game, but Bourne has been freakishly efficient, posting a 79.2% catch rate and averaging 11.8 yards per target. It’s hard to maintain that level of efficiency, but Bourne deserves at least flex consideration in 12-team leagues. He’s the WR35 this week.
Jakobi Meyers: After seeing only 14 targets over a three-game span from Week 9 to Week 11, Meyers was targeted eight times in Week 12 and finished with five catches for a season-high 98 yards in New England’s 36-13 win over Tennessee. Because he rarely scores touchdowns – we can’t use the word “never” anymore – and is averaging only 10.5 yards per catch, Meyers’ fantasy ceiling isn’t very high, but he at least offers a solid weekly floor. He checks in at WR39 this week.
Nelson Agholor: Agholor was a big-play specialist for the Raiders last season, scoring eight touchdowns and averaging 18.7 yards per catch. This year with the Patriots, Agholor has scored three touchdowns and is averaging 13.0 yards per catch. He’s been useful to the Patriots but not to fantasy managers, and you can’t play him this week against a tough Bills defense.
Stefon Diggs: After scoring just one touchdown in his first five games of the season, Diggs has scored six TDs in his last six games. He’s the WR8 in fantasy scoring, on pace for 1,309 yards and 11 touchdowns. Diggs is probably going to see a lot of Patriots cover man J.C. Jackson Monday night in what should be a terrific individual matchup. Diggs is a midrange WR1 this week.
Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders’ slump continues. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 5 and hasn’t topped 28 receiving yards in any of his last three games. He’s capable of making a weekly fantasy quota with just one big play, but there haven’t been many big plays from Sanders since mid-October. He’s a midrange WR4.
Cole Beasley: Like Emmanuel Sanders, Beasley’s production has really tailed off. He’s seen only 12 targets over his last three games and is averaging 28 receiving yards over that stretch. Not coincidentally, Beasley’s downturn in targets and receptions coincided with TE Dawson Knox‘s return from a broken hand. Beasley is the WR44 this week against the Patriots.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: Henry had quite a run from Week 4 to Week 10, scoring seven touchdowns in seven games, but it appears the thrill ride is over. Over his last two games, Henry has 4-41-0 on eight targets. There’s still TD potential here, but Henry is averaging 2.9 catches and 32.8 yards per game, so if you don’t get a touchdown, you probably aren’t getting much. Henry is a midrange TE2 in a tough matchup against the Bills.
Dawson Knox: Knox feasted on Thanksgiving night, scoring a pair of touchdowns. (He had a third nullified by a penalty for an ineligible man downfield.) In the three games since he returned from a broken hand, Knox has 10-129-2 on 14 targets. He’s the TE8 against a Patriots defense that’s yielding 4.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Thursday December 2, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cowboys -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 47.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cowboys 26, Saints 21.5
Quarterback
Dak Prescott: Prescott’s fantasy managers had a bad taste in their mouths after Dak’s QB28 finish on the week in Week 11, but that was quickly washed out with the bounce-back performance on Thanksgiving. Dak went 32-of-47 for a whopping 375 yards and two touchdowns. This was solid enough to end up as the QB3 on the entire week and his 375 passing yards led the entire league last week. Over his last seven games, Dak has now finished as the QB7, the QB11, the QB3, the QB9, the QB2, the QB28, and the QB3. If we didn’t have the disappointing performance in there against Kansas City, everyone would be talking about Prescott as a league-winner and that’s just what we need to start recognizing. Heading into the Thursday night matchup this week, the perception of the Saints defense is that their a tough unit to face and one that we should shy away from a fantasy perspective, but they’ve been gashed recently by opposing QBs. They’re currently allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season with 21.5 per game. Fire up Dak as a top-5 option yet again this week now that he’s likely to get more of his receiving weapons back.
Taysom Hill: All indications are that Hill is going to be the starting QB for the Saints on Thursday against the Cowboys. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Hill as the starting QB for New Orleans, but he was a very viable fantasy asset during that stretch. It’s important to remember though that he had playmakers like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara on the field during that stretch and he might not have either of them here in Week 13 against the Cowboys. We certainly know that Thomas is out, but there hasn’t been any clarity on whether Kamara will be active for this game. Without many playmakers on offense for the Saints, Hill is going to have to be utilized heavily as a runner to return top-12 production at the QB position. In his first week as the starter, it’s probably best to exercise caution with Hill and view him as a mid-range QB2. However, he’s absolutely worth picking up and rostering if he’s still available in your league as we get ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott: There was some concern after the Thanksgiving game that Zeke was going to have to miss some time with his knee injury that’s been bothering him as of late, but he was a full participant in practice on Monday and seems to be a full-go for this matchup against the Saints defense. While Zeke certainly has not been what fantasy managers were hoping for as of late, he is still providing an incredibly high floor for a player who’s battling through injury. Over the past four games, Zeke has not finished outside of the top-20 RBs on the week and he’s actually seen his receiving workload tick up. That might drop a little bit with Lamb coming back into the lineup – potentially Cooper as well – but we still know he’s going to receive plenty of work and not hurt our lineups. The matchup isn’t great though against the Saints defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season with 12.6, but with Zeke’s involvement around the goal-line, there’s no reason we shouldn’t view him as a top-12 play yet again in Week 13.
Tony Pollard: Pollard has seen a bit of an increase in work over the past few games with Zeke hampered by his knee injury and he’s proving to be a solid plug-and-play option for fantasy managers as an RB2. He’s now finished as a top-24 RB each of the past three weeks and he’s averaging 13.66 total opportunities (targets + carries) over that time frame. With Pollard’s talent, that’s enough work to come through for fantasy lineups and he deserves to be considered yet again here in Week 13. The matchup against the Saints isn’t great, but Pollard should see enough work to be viewed as a high-end RB3 this week.
Alvin Kamara: At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether or not Kamara is going to be able to return to game action on a short week. If he does return after missing the past three weeks – and he has zero limitations – he is instantly plugged right back into your starting lineup as a mid-range RB1. The Cowboys are allowing just the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season with 14.5 per game, but Kamara is guaranteed too high of a workload to downgrade at all. We’ll have to wait and see for more information regarding his health status and whether he’ll be limited at all, but assuming he’s a full-go, he can be started with confidence. Update: Kamara is reportedly set to miss this game.
Mark Ingram: Ingram missed last week’s contest, but it sounds like he’s going to be all-systems-go for Week 13 after getting in a full practice on Monday. It’s difficult to know how to fully evaluate Ingram though when there’s the potential that Kamara could return this week as well. When Kamara has missed, Ingram has been a top-15 play. However, if AK suits up, we need to downgrade Ingram to more of a mid-range RB3. We’ll need to wait and see how this situation unfolds as we get closer to kickoff, but if Kamara is declared inactive Ingram can be started as a mid-range RB2. Update: Kamara is reportedly going to be out, which boosts Ingram into top-15 territory at the RB position.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb appears set to return to the lineup this week against the Saints after dealing with a concussion and he needs to be immediately dropped back into your starting lineup. Lamb has been incredibly consistent this season when he’s been in the lineup and he’s averaging a solid 7.4 targets, 5 receptions, 74 receiving yards, and .6 touchdowns per game. He has to worry about sharing the ball with multiple other talented receiving threats in this offense, but Lamb has proven that he can get the job done regardless. In a matchup this week against the Saints secondary that’s allowing 182.3 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs, which is the 5th highest mark in the league this year, Lamb deserves to be viewed as a low-end WR1.
Michael Gallup: In Cooper’s absence over the past two games, Gallup has seen 18 targets and he’s turned that into 10 receptions for 146 receiving yards. While he hasn’t found the end zone, he’s been a solid option for fantasy lineups that had to turn to him with Cooper and Lamb out of the lineup. Now, things get a little bit muddier with Lamb and Cooper coming back. The Saints are a great matchup for opposing WRs as they’re allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to the position this season, but there’s concern about where the targets go in this offense with all three WRs on the field and healthy. If all three Dallas WRs are active, Gallup should be viewed as a low-end WR3/high-end FLEX option that still comes with upside due to the matchup.
Amari Cooper: Cooper is expected to play against the Saints on Thursday night after missing two games while on the COVID-19 list. However, ESPN’s Ed Werder tweeted that the Cowboys were likely to limit Cooper’s snaps. It’s probably best to consider Cooper a low-end WR2 for this week with a lower floor than usual.
Tre’Quan Smith: Smith had a tough matchup in Week 13 against the Bills secondary and the QB play certainly didn’t help things. However, before that game, Smith had been playing incredibly well and was delivering for the few fantasy managers that were actually playing him. He was getting into a rhythm with Trevor Siemian as his QB and was showing that he has the talent to be a factor for fantasy football if he has a QB who can deliver him the ball consistently. Unfortunately, we don’t know if we have that now with Taysom Hill expected to take over as the starter. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Hill as a passer and we’re not exactly sure who he’s going to target and lean on in this receiving corps. Smith can be played if you’re in a pinch as a FLEX option, but it’s probably best to leave him on the bench for this week and see how things play out.
Marquez Callaway: Callaway had started to come on from Weeks 9-11, but he’s still not seeing enough consistent volume to be trusted in fantasy lineups. He’s seen just four targets in each of his last three games and he has just five receptions over that time frame. He’s nothing more than a touchdown-or-bust option at the WR position and it’s probably best to look elsewhere.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: Fantasy managers were starting to panic a little bit on Schultz from Weeks 8-10 where he had two fantasy finishes outside the top-35 at the position. However, he’s turned things around in the past two weeks and has come through in the advantageous situation with Cooper and Lamb both missing time. Schultz has seen a 16.9% target share over the past two weeks combined, but we have to assume that that will drop down if Cooper and Lamb both return to the active lineup this week. It’s a tougher matchup for opposing TEs regardless with the Saints allowing just 5.2 fantasy points per game to the position too, so we need to at least exercise caution with Schultz in Week 13. He’s still worth playing if all three WRs are active, but we need to downgrade him to more of a low-end TE1. If Cooper misses this week, we can at least feel comfortable starting Schultz as a mid-range/low-end TE1. We’ll continue to update with more information as it becomes available.
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