Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Sunday December 5, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -11
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 30.75, Falcons 19.75
Quarterback
Tom Brady: It’s easy to recognize that Brady hasn’t exactly been crushing it for fantasy football over the past few weeks. He’s finished inside the top-12 QBs just once over the past three games coming out of their bye week and he’s thrown for more than 230 yards just once in that time span. And with that being said, he still leads the league in passing touchdowns and is second in the NFL in passing yards with 3,403. He’s not necessarily delivering top-5 production anymore at the QB position for fantasy, but that could all change this week against Atlanta. The last time that Brady took on the Falcons this season, he had 276 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. This performance resulted in 30 fantasy points and the QB3 finish on the week. We should have zero reservations about starting Brady this week despite his recent slide and he can be viewed as a borderline top-5 play.
Matt Ryan: We’ve now gone three straight games where Ryan hasn’t thrown for more than 200 passing yards. He’s finished as the QB33, the QB29, and the QB24 each of the past three weeks and there’s very little evidence to suggest that that is going to change any time soon. With very few reliable receiving weapons around him, Ryan isn’t able to make things happen on his own enough to push his way into the top-15 consideration. He’s a fine Superflex option this week due to the matchup against Tampa Bay’s secondary that’s allowing 21.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, but there’s very little upside to playing him at this point. He’s a low-end QB2 at best in Week 13.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette: Well, we didn’t exactly see that coming last week, did we? After finishing as the RB18 and RB17 the two weeks prior, Fournette exploded in Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts for 41 Half PPR fantasy points. The Colts had been one of the toughest matchups for opposing RBs and Fournette was expected to see plenty of work that would return mid-range RB2 value, but he defied all odds and rumbled for four total touchdowns. While the four touchdowns and 100 rushing yards last week are certainly impressive, there’s another aspect to Fournette’s production that is particularly encouraging. Since coming out of their bye week in Week 9, Fournette has seen a total of 23 targets. This leads the entire league at the RB position over that time frame and it’s providing fantasy managers with an extremely high floor. Even if Fournette isn’t able to get the job done on the ground in any matchup for whatever reason, there’s going to be the receiving workload to fall back on. Against the Falcons defense that’s allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year, Fournette can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB1.
Ronald Jones: Jones was able to find the end zone in Week 12, but he’s still not seeing enough work to provide standalone value. However, he’s worth talking about as one of the most valuable insurance RBs in fantasy right now. As fantasy rosters begin gearing up for a deep playoff run, Jones needs to be added to benches everywhere due to his upside if something were to happen to Fournette. We don’t wish that to happen obviously, but we need to be ready in case it does. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Add Jones to your bench if you’ve locked up your playoff spot in your league and you have the space.
Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson turning into a league-winner at the RB position is something that I absolutely did not expect in 2021, but here we are! After missing Week 11 with an injury, Patterson returned to the lineup and went off for 27 Half PPR fantatasy points. He saw 16 carries for 108 yards and added two receptions for 27 yards with two touchdowns in Week 13. The Falcons were finally able to move the ball on offense and Patterson was essentially the lone reason for that. He’s proven that he can get the job done for fantasy football this season and there’s very little reason to doubt him moving forward. While the matchup against the Bucs is a terrible one – as has been thoroughly discussed all season – Patterson has too much involvement as both a runner and receiver to sit in this one. He can be viewed as a low-end RB1.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin: Godwin’s drop in production was certainly peculiar last week, but it doesn’t seem like it was correlated to his early fumble. Godwin still played 97% of the snaps against the Colts, but he simply took a backseat to Rob Gronkowski. Both Godwin and Evans did very little this past week, but we shouldn’t expect that to continue this week against the Falcons. Atlanta is currently allowing 21.8 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and Godwin went for 4-62-1 the last time these two teams played earlier this season. We should be starting Godwin as a low-end WR1 yet again in Week 13.
Mike Evans: The WRs certainly disappointed for Tampa Bay last week. Both Evans and Godwin combined for just 40 yards receiving and they took a clear backseat to Gronkowski in this offense. Evans obviously comes with week-winning upside most weeks though due to his ability to score touchdowns. Through 12 weeks, Evans is tied with Cooper Kupp and Adam Thielen for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 10, but he is slowly moving towards touchdown-or-bust territory. Evans has seen more than 5 targets in just one of his previous four games. This is also without Antonio Brown active and in the lineup, which could change very soon. He’s saved his fantasy performances by finding the end zone in three of those four games, but we need to recognize that the stability might not be there as much as we would hope. With that being said, he’s a rock-solid play this week against the Falcons defense that he torched for two touchdowns earlier this season. He can be played as a high-end WR2.
Antonio Brown: It’s unclear whether or not AB will be able to return to the lineup against the Falcons just yet, but he’s worth immediately considering for your starting lineup if he does return as a low-end WR3 with plenty of upside. We’ll need to wait for more information before we discuss the ramifications of him returning to the lineup, but it does sound like he’s getting closer to playing in his first game since Week 6. Update: AB is reportedly going to miss the next two games as he works his way back from injury.
Russell Gage: It’s a strange world we live in, but Gage has now seen 15 targets over the past two games and he’s becoming a reliable receiving option for the Falcons offense. Apparently, Cordarrelle Patterson is the key to Atlanta being able to move the ball this year – just like everyone predicted, right? – and Gage is taking advantage of the increased opportunity. He’s certainly not someone that we can classify as a league-winner, but if you’re in need of a high-floor FLEX option this next week, Gage should be on your radar.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski: Gronk has now played two games since returning to action and he has certainly made his presence known. He has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks and he’s reeled in 13 of those for 194 yards. At this point, as long as Gronk is healthy and playing, he belongs in starting lineups as a top-5 option. The chemistry with Brady is still there and the target share in this offense is simply too much to play many other options over him in our lineups. Against the Falcons defense this week, Gronk can be played with complete confidence.
Kyle Pitts: Did you know that Pitts has just one Red Zone target since Atlanta came out of their bye week in Week 6? He finished as the TE2 in Week 7 after posting 163 receiving yards against Miami, but he hasn’t reeled in more than four receptions in any game since that point. He also has found the end zone just once on the entire year up to this point and his fantasy finishes are dropping quickly as a result. He hasn’t finished inside the top-10 TEs over the course of the last five games and there are reasons to be pessimistic that he will do it at any point in the foreseeable future. With no other vertical receiving threats in this offense, Pitts is the center of attention for opposing defenses and they’re making life incredibly difficult for him. The future is still very bright for Pitts down the road, but we need to downgrade him from a redraft perspective in the meantime. Pitts can be viewed as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 for this matchup against Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Jets
Date/Time: Sunday December 5, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Eagles -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Eagles 26, Jets 19.5
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew: Jalen Hurts appears to be doubtful with an ankle injury, so Minshew is expected to get the start against the Jets. Minshew is one of the more seasoned backups in the league, having made 20 starts for the Jaguars in 2019 and 2020. He’s not nearly as mobile as Hurts, but Minshew may be a better pure passer. He has a career completion percentage of 63.0% compared with 57.7% for Hurts. Minshew has thrown 37 career TD passes and only 11 interceptions, and he’s averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Minshew isn’t a bad streaming option against a Jets defense that has a league-worst opponent passer rating (107.0), is allowing opponents to complete passes at a 69.9% rate and is giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Consider Minshew a midrange QB2.
Zach Wilson: Wilson has been an absolute nightmare this season for New York. He now has 4 touchdowns on the season to 10 interceptions and he’s done very little to show that he was worthy of the No. 2 overall pick back in April. Jets fans hope that he can turn things around for the future, but there’s no reason we should be looking his way in fantasy football in any format for the remainder of this year.
Running Backs
Boston Scott: At the time of writing, it seems highly unlikely that Miles Sanders is going to be able to suit up this week. If that’s the case, Scott becomes a very intriguing play against the Jets. New York is allowing 26.6 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season, which is dead last in the league by a mile. We’ve seen Scott step in this season and be a valuable fantasy asset, but this matchup would move him nearly into the must-start territory. Even if Sanders does return to action this week – which we’ll keep you all updated on as the week progresses – Scott deserves FLEX consideration this week simply due to the matchup. Update: Sanders is expected to play, which puts Scott as a high-end RB3 in rankings.
Kenneth Gainwell: If Sanders and Jordan Howard both sit out this week, Gainwell at least moves back into the redraft conversation due to the matchup. However, we’ve been burned by Gainwell (more specifically Nick Sirianni) once already this season and it’s going to be difficult to trust the rookie RB in such a key week for many fantasy lineups, but he at least becomes a desperation FLEX option and worth considering if you’re in a pinch. Update: Sanders is expected to play and Gainwell will move back to an irrelevant role for fantasy football.
Miles Sanders: Sanders is expected to start this week after missing parts of Week 12’s matchup with an ankle injury. He’s reportedly all-systems-go and should be viewed as a solid option for Week 13 against the Jets. New York is allowing 112.5 rushing yards and a whopping 1.5 touchdowns on average to the position so far this season, which means that we should be looking to get Sanders into our starting lineups. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB2 with upside.
Ty Johnson: Johnson was the hot waiver wire add for Week 12, but he wound up finishing third in the Jets backfield in terms of touches. There’s the possibility that the Jets utilize Johnson more this week as the pass-catching option if they’re playing from behind, but that is a major question mark now that there are three options in this backfield. Johnson can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end RB3, but it’s probably best to just stay away.
Tevin Coleman: Coleman’s 16 carries in Week 12 were the byproduct of a favorable game script, but that’s not exactly something that we should anticipate here. Philadelphia’s defense is a much more formidable unit than Houston and we could see New York get down early if the Eagles’ offense is even functional. Coleman should still be the lead option in this backfield, but with potentially losing goal-line work to Walter like last week, there’s very little upside to playing him in a crucial fantasy week. Coleman can be viewed as a mid-range RB3.
Austin Walter: Walter came out of literally nowhere last week to score Week 12’s most inconsequential touchdown – and he averaged over 4 YPC on his 9 attempts – but we still shouldn’t be looking his way for fantasy football. He can remain on your league’s waiver wire.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith: We know that Smith is an incredibly talented WR that has the ability to get open at will and provide his QB with a reliable receiving option. With Jalen Hurts out this week with an ankle injury and Gardner Minshew getting the start at quarterback, Smith’s outlook might actually brighten a bit, since Minshew might be the better pure passer. The matchup against the Jets is incredibly favorable, so we should continue to start Smith as a high-end WR3, but we need to recognize that the floor is incredibly low if Hurts doesn’t get the job done as a passer this week.
Corey Davis: Davis missed last week’s game and is already missing practices this week with his groin injury. This isn’t a great sign for his availability this week and we should be concerned even if he does suit up. While Zach Wilson has shown that he’s not afraid to lean on Davis when they’re both playing, the qualities of the targets just isn’t trustworthy enough for us to view Davis as anything more than a low-end WR3. If he does play, you likely have better options you can turn towards.
Jamison Crowder: Crowder went from being a very high floor play with Mike White and Joe Flacco to essentially irrelevant last week with Wilson at QB. Crowder can be dropped to your waiver wire at this point of the season for a bench option with more upside.
Elijah Moore: Moore had been on an absolute tear the few weeks prior to Week 12, but that was without Wilson throwing him the ball. While Moore had double the amount of targets that anyone else did on the Jets last week, it only resulted in 4 receptions for 46 yards and no score in a near-perfect matchup. Now, the Jets take on the Eagles’ secondary that is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season with just 15.7 fantasy points per game. We should be exercising caution with Moore this week from a fantasy standpoint and he can be viewed as a mid-range WR3.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert: Expectations for Goedert were sky-high when Zach Ertz was traded away – and there were a couple of weeks where it looked like he was going to finally turn into a reliable TE1 – but it hasn’t clicked here in recent weeks. Goedert finished as the TE12 in Week 11 against New Orleans, but otherwise, he has finished as the TE23, the TE25, and the TE54 three of the past four weeks. We should still be considering Goedert for fantasy – especially in this matchup against the Jets – but we need to realize that he’s not turning into the reliable fantasy threat that we thought he would when Ertz was shipped off.
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Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Sunday December 5, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cardinals -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 26.5, Bears 19
Quarterback
Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy: Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has expressed optimism that Murray will be able to make his first start since Week 8 after missing three games with a high-ankle sprain. Murray had practiced on a limited basis in Week 11, but the Cardinals elected to keep him sidelined until after their Week 12 bye. Murray is averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game to rank QB5 in that category. If indeed Murray returns, he’ll be facing a run-funnel Bears defense against whom opponents have run the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps. But it’s not as if the Chicago pass defense is to be feared. The Bears rank 28th in opponent passer rating and are giving up 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Use Murray in season-long leagues if he’s back in action, but don’t spend $7,500 on him in DraftKings contests. If competent backup Colt McCoy makes a fourth consecutive start, consider him a low-end QB2.
Andy Dalton: Justin Fields has multiple cracked ribs, so Dalton will make a second consecutive start for the Bears. The Red Rifle feasted on the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, throwing for 317 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But the Detroit pass defense is among the worst in the league. This week, the Bears face an Arizona pass defense that ranks third in DVOA and is giving up 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Dalton isn’t an attractive fantasy option this week.
Running Backs
James Conner: With 13 touchdowns, Conner ranks second in that category, just one TD behind league leader Jonathan Taylor. Conner has scored at least one touchdown in five consecutive games and has scored multiple TDs on four different occasions. With Chase on IR with a high-ankle sprain that will keep him out until at least Week 14, Conner’s usage has expanded. Edmonds has missed the last two games and played only one snap in Week 9 before going down. In those three games, Conner has had 52-197-4 rushing and 13-139-1 receiving on 15 targets, good for an average of 23.4 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) over that span. The usage in the passing game is especially encouraging since Conner had seen only five targes in his first eight games. Conner checks in at RB9 this week against a middling Bears run defense, and he’s one of the best DraftKings values on the board at $5,900.
David Montgomery: In his first three games back from a sprained knee, Montgomery has 44-167-0 rushing and 6-54-0 receiving, averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game over that stretch. Montgomery played at least 85% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in all three of those games, so usage isn’t the issue. The Bears’ mediocre offensive line play is an ongoing concern for Montgomery stakeholders, and this week Monty will be up against an Arizona run defense that’s giving up only 15.7 fantasy points per game to running backs. Montgomery is just a midrange RB2 this week. His modest $5,600 price tag on DraftKings will lure some people in, but I worry that he’s a trap at that price.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: A hamstring injury has kept Hopkins out of action since Week 8, but Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury expressed hope that Hopkins would be back this week against the Bears. A target hog throughout his career, Hopkins hasn’t seen double-digit targets in any game this season, as Arizona’s QBs have spread the ball around. Hopkins hasn’t recorded a 100-yard game in 2021, but he’s scored seven touchdowns in eight games. If he plays, Hopkins will be a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 and an intriguing DraftKings option at a sale price of $6,200.
Christian Kirk: Kirk has been remarkably efficient this season, catching 80.3% of the balls thrown his way and averaging 10.3 yards per target. He needs to be efficient because he’s seen six or fewer targets in 9 of 11 games. Kirk is the WR36 in fantasy points per game among receivers with at least five games played, and he’s the WR35 this week against the Bears.
A.J. Green: Green looked like toast last year, catching just 45.2% of his targets, and averaging a career-low 11.1 yards per catch and a woeful 5.0 yards per target. This year, he’s averaging 15.8 yards per catch, which would be his highest YPC since his rookie year in 2011, and a robust 9.8 yards per catch. The only issue is that in a spread-the-love passing game, Green is averaging 5.5 targets per game. The spotty target totals keep him in WR5 range.
Rondale Moore: When we last saw the Cardinals in Week 11, Moore had a season-high 11 targets and caught all of them, but for only 51 yards. That’s the problem: Moore’s usage has been extremely gadgety and not especially valuable for fantasy. He has 47 catches, but his average depth of target is just 1.6 yards, and he’s averaging 8.7 yards per catch. Moore hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2. He’s the WR60 this week.
Darnell Mooney: With Allen Robinson sidelined by a hamstring injury, Mooney has had 5-121-1 and 5-123-0 in Chicago’s last two games. Never mind that he’s caught 41.7% of his 24 targets in those two games. What matters is that Mooney is being force-fed and cashing in. If Robinson remains sidelined this week, Mooney will be a low-end WR2 and an appealing DraftKings play at $5,600.
Allen Robinson: Robinson hasn’t played since Week 9 due to a hamstring injury. Even if he’s able to play against the Cardinals this week, he’ll be hard to trust. He’s had 30-339-1 in nine games, good for just 6.1 fantasy points per game.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz: In the Cardinals’ last game, a 23-13 win over the Seahawks in Week 11, Ertz had his most productive outing since joining the team in Week 7, with 8-88-2 on nine targets. In five games with Arizona, Ertz has averaged 4.4 catches and 53.8 receiving yards per game. He’s a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 this week against the Bears.
Cole Kmet: Kmet saw a season-high 11 targets in the Bears’ Thanksgiving Day win over the Lions and finished with 8-65-0. That was with Andy Dalton at quarterback for the Bears. Dalton had also targeted Kmet seven times in Week 1, resulting in a 5-42-0 stat line for the second-year tight end. Kmet ran routes on 86% of Dalton’s dropbacks in Week 12. It’s encouraging usage, but two reasons to flash the caution light for Week 13: (1) Kmet still hasn’t scored a touchdown all season, and (2) he’s about to face a Cardinals defense that’s giving up 4.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the second-lowest total in the league. Kmet missed practice Weednesday with a groin injury, so monitor his status if you’re thinking about playing him.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Sunday December 5, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bengals -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bengals 26.75, Chargers 23.75
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Herbert has been a better fantasy quarterback than real-life quarterback in recent weeks. He’s thrown seven interceptions in his last six games and had a passer rating of 80.0 or lower of four of those games, yet he’s averaged 21.6 fantasy points a game over that span – more than anyone except Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers. Overall, Herbert’s 2021 numbers are strikingly similar to his 2020 numbers other than a slight uptick in his interception rate (2.3% this year vs. 1.7% last year). Herbert faces Cincinnati this week. The Bengals haven’t been an easy matchup, giving up 16.4 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Herbert is the QB8 this week.
Joe Burrow: Through the first eight weeks of the season, Burrow was averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game. Over the last three weeks, he’s averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game. Cause for concern? Nah. The first of those games, a Week 9 blowout loss to the Browns, was just one of those days. In Weeks 10-11, Burrow completed 75.5% of his passes in easy wins over the Raiders and Steelers. The game scripts simply didn’t call for heavy passing volume, and the Bengals were happy to follow the script, letting Joe Mixon pound away on the ground. Even if the Bengals’ Week 13 game against the Chargers is more competitive, Cincinnati may choose to stick with a run-heavy attack. The Chargers have a run-funnel defense, with opponents having run against them 48% of the time. (The Lions are the only team in the league against whom opponents run the ball a higher percentage of the time.) Consider Burrow a low-end RB1 this week. I’m fading him in DraftKings contests at a price of $6,300.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: The Chargers face the Bengals this week, and this could be a terrific matchup for a pass-catching ace like Ekeler. The Bengals have given up 614 receiving yards to opposing RBs, the fourth-highest total in the league. Cincinnati’s opponents have targeted their running backs 107 times this season. No other team has yielded more than 98 targets to opposing RBs. Ekeler is the RB2 in fantasy scoring this year behind only Jonathan Taylor, and he’s the RB3 this week. He’s a sturdy DraftKings cash-game anchor at $8,300.
Joe Mixon: Mixon has been on a touchdown rampage, with two TDs in each of his last four games and at least one TD in each of his last eight games. He’s scored 13 touchdowns in 11 games, and Weeks 2-3 were the only times this season when he wasn’t able to find his way into the end zone. Over the last two weeks, Mixon has had 58-288-4 rushing, hammering away at the Raiders and Steelers in one-sided Cincinnati victories. Mixon could carry a heavy load this weekend against the Chargers, who have given up 1,598 rushing yards this season, more than any other team in the league. Opposing running backs are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the Chargers and gouging them for 24.0 fantasy points per game. Mixon is the RB2 this week. At $8,100 on DraftKings, Mixon is rather pricey for a back who doesn’t catch many passes, but it’s hard to say it’s too expensive for a player who’s so red-hot.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: Allen has been a rock for the Chargers this season, especially over the last month or so. He’s drawn double-digit targets in five consecutive games, averaging 8.4 receptions and 95.2 receiving yards over that stretch. Allen has scored only two touchdowns this season and is averaging 11.0 yards per catch, but Allen has one of the safest weekly fantasy floors of any receiver in the league. He has a tricky individual matchup this week against Bengals slot corner Mike Hilton, but Allen is still the WR8 this week and a compelling DraftKings option at $7,500.
Mike Williams: Stakeholders were hoping that Williams had ended a monthlong slump with a 5-97-1 performance against the Steelers in Week 11 (fueled mostly by a long, late touchdown), but he had only 4-39-0 against the Broncos in Week 12. On the bright side, Williams drew eight targets against Denver. It was the first time he had seen more than six targets in a game since Week 5. Williams has a favorable individual matchup against Bengals CB Eli Apple this week, but he’s still just a mid-range WR3. He’s on sale at DraftKings at only $5,700, making him a tempting GPP play.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase investors shouldn’t panic over the recent downturn. The explosive rookie has been held to 6-71-1 receiving on nine targets over the last two weeks, but that’s largely because the Bengals won their last two games by a combined 50 points. Chase is still a top-five play in season-long leagues and a great value at $7,000 on DraftKings.
Tee Higgins: Higgins ended a six-game touchdown drought with a pretty 32-yard TD catch against the Steelers last weekend, and he almost had a second touchdown but was tackled just short of the end zone. Higgins’ 2021 per-game numbers look a lot like his rookie-year numbers, yet there’s a palpable lack of enthusiasm among Higgins stakeholders. Keep playing him. He’s a low-end WR2 this week against the Chargers and a good DraftKings value at $5,800.
Tyler Boyd: Since his 9-118-0 performance in Week 4, Boyd has averaged just 3.3 catches and 30.3 fantasy points per game. The target share just isn’t substantial enough for Boyd to be in your lineup unless you’re desperate. Boyd lands at WR49 in the Week 13 rankings.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook: In 11 games this season, Cook has finished with between 25 and 29 yards on seven different occasions. He’s only topped 50 yards twice. Cook is the TE18 in fantasy points per game, and he’s the TE22 in this week’s rankings.
C.J. Uzomah: After scoring five touchdowns over a four-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 7, Uzomah has gone four games without a TD. He’s also totaled just 18 receiving yards over his last two games. He’s a midrange TE2 this week, bolstered slightly by a matchup against a Chargers defense that’s giving up 10.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Washington Football Team vs Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time: Sunday December 5, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Raiders -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 49.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Raiders 26, Washington 23.5
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke: Since taking over as the starter for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2, Heinicke has been the QB13 in fantasy points per game. He’s had only one 300-yard passing game over that stretch, but Heinicke has given his investors a sturdy weekly floor. He’s the QB15 this week against a Raiders pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and is giving up 19.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Derek Carr: The NFL generally does a good job of not putting one team at a disadvantage against another due to scheduling. This week’s Washington-Las Vegas matchup is a glaring exception. The Raiders will have had nine days off after playing on Thanksgiving. The Football Team will have had only five days off after hosting the Seahawks on Monday night, and they’ll have to make a near-cross-country flight for this one. Could that give Carr a slight edge in preparation for this week? Maybe. Even without the extra rest, this looks like a good matchup for Carr. Washington’s pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA and is giving up a league-high 25.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson: Remember the stress fracture in Gibson’s shin? That was a concern earlier in the season. It’s been largely forgotten now that Gibson has been on fire ever since Washington’s Week 9 bye. In his last three games, Gibson has had 72-270-2 rushing and 9-49-0 receiving. Monday night against Seattle, he had 29-111-0 rushing and 7-35-0 receiving, establishing season highs in carries, catches and rushing yards. Gibson has a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week, and he figures to get a substantial workload once again with J.D. McKissic having been ruled out with a concussion. Gibson is the RB11 this week and a juicy DraftKings value at only $5,700.
J.D. McKissic: McKissic has been ruled out for Week 13 with a concussion.
Josh Jacobs: In past editions of the Primer, we’ve noted that Jacobs has gotten more work in the passing game this year. He’s just four catches and 41 receiving yards away from establishing new single-season highs in those two categories. Jacobs has had at least 19 receiving yards in seven straight games. No, he hasn’t morphed into Austin Ekeler, but Jacobs is no longer completely one-dimensional. In addition to his two catches for 25 receiving yards against Dallas on Thanksgiving, Jacobs also had a season-high 22 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown. Jacobs checks in at RB16 against the Football Team this week. He’s a solid if unspectacular DraftKings value at $6,000.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: Continuing a season-long pattern of following up a strong performance with a disappointing one, McLaurin had 4-51-0 against Seattle in Week 12 after putting up 5-103-1 against Carolina a week earlier. This week, McLaurin has a tough individual matchup against Raiders CB Casey Hayward, who’s giving up a mere 0.10 fantasy points per route run against him, according to PFF. McLaurin is the WR12 this week, but don’t spend $7,400 on him in DraftKings.
DeAndre Carter: After scoring a touchdown in three straight games, Carter was unable to find the end zone in Week 12, finishing with 4-42-0 receiving against Seattle. The return of Curtis Samuel from a groin injury didn’t appreciably affect Carter’s role. In fact, Carter played a season-high 61 snaps. Still, he’s no more than an emergency option in fantasy, checking in at WR64.
Curtis Samuel: After missing five games with a groin injury, Samuel returned to action in week 12 and had 1-9-0 receiving and 1-4-0 rushing on only 20 snaps. Will the Football Team ramp up Samuel’s role in the weeks to come? Maybe. He’s an explosive, versatile asset, but Samuel is unplayable for fantasy until we can be confident that he’ll get more than a handful of touches.
Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow’s sturdy weekly floor has been his greatest attribute in fantasy this season. But now, with Henry Ruggs no longer with the team and Darren Waller banged up, Renfrow’s ceiling has been raised, too. He had 8-134-0 against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, establishing season highs in receptions and yardage. Renfrow is a midrange WR3 this week against Washington, and I’m eagerly buying him at $5,800 on DraftKings.
DeSean Jackson: We know Jackson is a volatile fantasy asset, but at least he’s demonstrating that he’s still an asset. Jackson had 3-102-1 on four targets against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, highlighted by a 56-yard catch-and-run touchdown. Jackson’s route participation was up to 56%. He’s still a risky WR5, but he’s usable in large leagues or leagues that have a lot of flex spots. At only $4,200 on DraftKings, Jackson is an intriguing GPP option because of his splash-play potential.
Bryan Edwards: Over his last two games, Edwards has one catch for 12 yards. Zay Jones out-targeted Edwards 7-1 in the Raiders’ Thanksgiving Day win over the Cowboys. Edwards is droppable.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: In his first game back from a hamstring injury that had kept him out of action since Week 4, Thomas had 3-31-0 on six targets against Seattle. He appeared to have a game-clinching 3-yard TD catch late in the fourth quarter, but the officials ruled it an incompletion. It was encouraging to see Thomas get a healthy 17% target share in his first game back. He’s a high-end TE1 this week in a favorable matchup against the Raiders.
Foster Moreau: Darren Waller missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury and is considered doubtful for this weekend. Moreau now becomes an attractive streaming option at TE, considering that the Raiders don’t have an abundance of pass-catching options. He’s an especially compelling option on DraftKings, where he’s priced at only $2,700.
