To give you an idea about how tough the second half of the season has been from a fantasy perspective, I have two charity expert leagues that have many big fantasy pundits participating. I have data from both leagues, which are comprised of 96 teams each. Names like The Score’s Justin Boone, Gridiron Expert’s Aaron Schill, and The Scott Fish Bowl Podathon guru, Sal Leto, are just a few involved. I had a sneaking suspicion looking at this week’s scores that there seems to be an overall “dip” in scores across the board recently. I have felt that way for a while but I decided to investigate. Here’s what I found:
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EFFC#3 (European Fantasy Football Contest third season)
The average score from weeks 1-6 was 217.4 but from weeks 7-12 it was only 183.1. This is a significant decrease. In fact the best average after Week 6 was 194.7. That happened in Week 7. Each of the previous six weeks independently had a higher average than Week 7. Every week after averaged less.
The FF Down Under Bowl (also third season)
The average score from weeks 1-6 was 139.1 but from weeks 7-12 it was only 118.3. This echoes the EFFC#3. The best average week after Week 6 was also Week 7 at 124.6. In fact, this league echoes the EFFC#3. The second half of the fantasy football season has been significantly worse.
Possible Reasons:
Some can be attributed to bye weeks but generally I have felt that as the year has gone on, more last minute injuries and less consistent play all around has made this season incredibly difficult to comprehend. Someone who dominates one week can literally put up a zero the next, followed by another great performance or another zero. I am sure many have fallen prey to making “bad” lineups – choosing the wrong person to go into their flex spots. I know I have. But a lot also has to do with the unpredictability and inconsistency of everyone, even the players we drafted in the first three rounds. The analytic patterns are varied, yet are not consistent across the board. I haven’t investigated it enough to give you definitive reasons but just wanted to share that I have seen it happen. Even in “real” football the parity is more pronounced. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen have all underperformed often. Expected dependable players have been streaky. Sure things haven’t been sure. Chalk plays have simply not been there.
The year can be summed up by J.D. McKissic‘s fantasy output (great, bad, great, bad, and so on). Or it can be symbolized by the Seattle wide receiving duo. Or maybe the Bengals wide receiving trio. Or perhaps it is even more mysterious – like the emergence and disappearance of Dan Arnold. He’s the 2021 version of Chris Herndon. He won us over then broke our hearts.
By showing you this, you can only begin to understand how that effects the streaming landscape, which has always been a wasteland. If the stars are literally “falling” imagine try figuring out what the scraps will do.
I know I have digressed but I thought it was an interesting observation. I’m sure there’s a dip every year but I would be surprised if it was this drastic. Check out your league and see if there is second half dip in your league’s totals. My guess is there is.
Despite the dip in fantasy gold, as they say “the show must go on.” It is either the beginning of your playoffs, or for most, it is the last week of trying to make the playoffs. Either way, it is a crucial week for most of us.
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Upside Streamer With Risk of The Week: Cam Newton (CAR) vs Atlanta Falcons
Cam is coming off of a bye and he needed it after his disastrous outing against the surging Miami Dolphins in Week 12. Which Cam will we get in Week 14? Potentially one that will catapult you to your opening round win or help ensure you get in to the playoffs. Newton faces the Atlanta Falcons which are the third most generous defense for quarterbacks. Newton has rush potential and rush TD potential. He has receiving weapons. His ceiling is incredibly high, however we know that his consistency is inconsistent. Remember though, sometimes you just have to put all of your chips in. Everything is set up for Newton to excel. The only thing stopping Cam Newton is Cam Newton.
Middle of the Road Streamer of the Week: Taysom Hill (NO) or Trevor Siemian (NO) @ New York Jets
As I write this before the Week 13 Monday Night game has been played, there is a lot of uncertainty with Taysom Hill. He played poorly as a passer after his finger injury but still put up a ton of fantasy points. If he goes again this week, which many are saying he will, then he has the potential ceiling of Cam Newton. The problem is I can see that scenario that he re-aggravates that finger and gets replaced by Trevor Siemian and that could end up being the ultimate kibosh. I actually would like it more if Hill is ruled out. That way the ceiling may be less but Siemian has been good for fantasy on the whole and plays against the hapless Jets defense. They are 10th worst against quarterbacks and because their offense is starting to click, means that the games will be closer. Therefore, closer games make for better fantasy points all around. Really monitor what is happening with the QBs for the Saints.
Others to Consider:
I don’t really like anythone else to be honest. All have potential but many have poor fantasy quarterback matchups. Teddy Bridgewater has the best matchup against Detroit, who are 13th worst versus quarterbacks in fantasy. But after last week, I am not sure if he’ll even start. Taylor Heinicke probably would be my choice if I had to pick my third quarterback streaming option, however the Dallas defense keeps improving and are the 11th toughest against quarterbacks. Jimmy Garoppolo could be in a nice shootout against Cincinnati but Cincy is the 5th stingiest versus the quarterback position so there’s risk there. Ben Roethlisberger has the best matchup out of “the rest” as he plays the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota is middle of the road against quarterbacks. The problem I have with this is having watched Big Ben play this year, I really don’t know if I could stomach starting him by limited choice.
Upside Tight End Streamer of the Week: Foster Moreau (LV) vs Kansas City Chiefs
Similar to the Cam Newton recommendation, Foster Moreau’s last outing was disappointing to say the least. However, he plays the Chiefs who (despite an improved defense) are still eighth most susceptible versus tight ends. It is a good matchup as long as Darren Waller is out. Las Vegas desperately needs to win to remain alive. Chucking it solely to Hunter Renfrow ain’t gonna cut it. Moreau may not be the target monster that Waller can be but he’s athletic and has a penchant for touchdowns. He’s upside with the risk of having a repeat performance of Week 13.
Middle of the Road Streamer of the Week: Evan Engram (NYG) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Evan Engram is definitely not the same player he once was, however it looks as though the Giants are turning to Jake Fromm. Fromm has never started a game in the NFL. Quarterbacks like him tend to favor the shorter passes. Saquon Barkley should have a good game playing against one of the worst run defenses. Engram should have a safe floor with a potential nice ceiling playing against the third worst defense versus tight ends.
Love the Potential Situation but Hate the Matchup: Tyler Conklin (MIN) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
With Adam Thielen most likely not suiting up for Thursday night, it seems that either Tyler Conklin or K.J. Osborn (or both) could be in for a big day. Remember, Pittsburgh is the 24th toughest defense against tight ends. They limited Mark Andrews to only four receptions and fifty yards. That being said, Conklin has the most potential among existing tight ends to stream. Sometimes you just have to throw that Hail Mary, close your eyes, and hope for the best. If you are less of a renegade gambler you may want to look into Ricky Seals-Jones if he is playing. It looks like Logan Thomas is done for 2021. If RSJ is playing, he faces the Dallas Cowboys who are ranked 11th easiest against tight ends. RSJ would be a safe option with some upside if in fact he is back from injury.
Good luck this week.
It’s ugly and uncertain but at least we know that it is almost coming to an end. Hopefully an end that spells out “Championship” for you.
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Marc Mathyk is a featured writer at FantasyPros and co-founder of Veridian Global, a fantasy football apparel company. For more from Marc, check out his archive and follow him @Masterjune70.
