Coming off a crazy and unpredictable week, let’s hope for a little more routine and predictable outcomes in Week 16. As we enter the last few weeks of the regular season, keep in mind which teams are fighting for a playoff spot and which teams might just be mailing it in.
For GPPs, we’ll want to get most of our passing game stacks from matchups involving two teams that are fighting for a playoff spot and hope they get into a back-and-forth shootout. When it comes to rostering running backs, it is okay to pick on the teams fighting for draft position instead of the playoffs as they often roll over as they fall behind, which leads to multiple rushing scores for the big Vegas favorites.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 16 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Matthew Stafford (LAR): $6,700 vs. MIN
It seems like I pick on the Vikings’ secondary every week regardless of the potency of the offense they are facing. However, this week they face one of the top passing offenses in the league, with Stafford and company traveling to Minnesota in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals of the week.
Stafford has thrown for three or more touchdown passes eight times in 14 games this season. He’ll face a Vikings pass defense that has allowed 301 passing yards (32nd) and 2.4 touchdown passes (31st) per game over the last five weeks. Anything less than 300 yards and three scores would be a disappointment.
Joe Burrow (CIN): $5,900 vs. BAL
It is all about pass attempts for Burrow to have a big day. In the seven games that Burrow has attempted at least 32 passes, he averages over 22 DraftKings points per game. He should be forced to throw against the Ravens, who rank 29th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against the pass and fifth DVOA against the run, according to FootballOutsiders.
Burrow chucked it 38 times in the previous meeting with the Ravens on his way to 416 passing yards and three scores. If he can approach those numbers at home in the rematch, he’ll provide a GPP winning score at a nice value.
Other notables: Kyler Murray (ARI): $7,400 vs. IND, Josh Fields (CHI): $5,200 vs. SEA
FanDuel
Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,500 vs. CHI
While I like Stafford and Burrow on FanDuel also, I wanted to give a couple of other possible pivots worth a GPP flier, starting with Wilson. It has not been pretty for Wilson and the Seahawks recently, but the potential for a big game is still there, especially at home.
The Bears’ pass defense has been fairly stingy with giving up yardage, but they have been more forthcoming in the red zone allowing 1.9 touchdown passes (29th) per game this season. Wilson’s big games are when he is efficient in the red zone and pops off for three or more touchdown passes.
Dak Prescott (DAL): $7,400 vs. WAS
Prescott is another quarterback, much like Wilson, who has struggled since returning from injury but has shown in the past (earlier this season) that he can put together a big GPP-winning score. Prescott might get the passing game clicking in a home game against Washington.
Washington ranks 27th DVOA against the pass this season. They have allowed 272 passing yards (29th) and 2.0 touchdown passes (31st) per game this year. The pass attempts have been there for Prescott, but he will need to start to take some shots down the field to open things up for a big game.
Other notables: Matthew Stafford (LAR): $7,900 vs. MIN, Joe Burrow (CIN): $7,100 vs. BAL
Running Backs
DraftKings
Najee Harris (PIT): $7,400 vs. KC
Harris is coming off the worst game of his rookie season, where he averaged just 1.5 YPC and gained a total of 26 yards. Look for a strong bounce-back game from Harris this week against the Chiefs, who give up a lot of production to running backs.
Over the last five weeks, the Chiefs have allowed 4.93 YPC (30th) and 107 rushing yards (26th) per game to running backs. They also give up production through the air to backs, allowing 7.3 receptions (30th) for 63 yards (32nd) over the last five weeks. It should be a busy day for Harris.
Justin Jackson (LAC): $4,200 vs. HOU
Jackson will turn into the “free square” of the week if Austin Ekeler cannot test out of COVID protocols before Sunday’s game against the Texans. In the last game, Jackson had 13 carries for 86 yards splitting duties with Ekeler.
The matchup couldn’t be much better with the Chargers as near double-digit favorites against a Texans’ run defense that ranks 27th DVOA. They have allowed 136 rushing yards (31st) and 1.4 touchdowns (30th) per game to running backs over the last five weeks. Eat the chalk even in GPPs with Jackson if Ekeler is out.
Other notables: Jonathan Taylor (IND): $8,800 vs. ARI, James Robinson (JAC): $5,900 vs. NYJ, Ronald Jones (TB): $5,100 vs. 5,100
FanDuel
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC): $6,500 vs. PIT
With many of the Chiefs’ key skill players currently in the COVID protocols, it could be a week for the Chiefs to focus more on the running game led by Edwards-Helaire. He’ll get a very favorable matchup against the Steelers run defense that ranks 30th DVOA.
The Steelers have been shredded on the ground over the last five weeks for 143 yards (32nd) per game on 5.22 YPC (31st) while giving up 1.4 rushing touchdowns (30th) per game to running backs during that stretch. Edwards-Helaire has scored three touchdowns over the last four weeks.
Ronald Jones (TB): $5,400 vs. CAR
Jones will be a chalky option on both sites as the lead back for the Buccaneers with Leonard Fournette out. His salary is low enough to be worth eating the chalk even in GPPs in a decent matchup against the Panthers.
The Panthers rank 24th DVOA against the run and have allowed 107 rushing yards (25th) and 0.75 rushing scores (21st) per game over the last five weeks to running backs. With the Bucs installed as a double-digit favorite and without Chris Godwin and maybe Mike Evans, there should be a lot of carries available for Jones.
Other notables: James Robinson (JAC): $8,200 vs. NYJ, Nick Chubb (CLE): $7,600 vs. GB, Miles Sanders (PHI): $6,400 vs. NYG
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Cooper Kupp (LAR): $9,100 vs. MIN
Kupp’s assault on the record books should continue this week against a weak Vikings secondary who especially struggles to defend the slot where Kupp lines up 67 percent of the time. The Vikings have allowed 14.2 receptions (28th) for a league-high 203 yards per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
Over the last three weeks, Kupp has topped 123 yards with at least one score in each game. The Vikings will have no answers to stop Kupp, and the Vikings offense should be able to do enough to keep the Rams looking to put up points for four quarters. Kupp’s salary on DraftKings is too low even though he is the highest-priced wide receiver.
Tee Higgins (CIN): $6,200 vs. BAL
I’m not going to tell you that you are wrong if you’d rather go with Ja’Marr Chase ($7,100) over Higgins. After all, Chase put up 201 yards on eight catches with a score in his first meeting with the Ravens. However, that is the exact reason I prefer Higgins this week in the rematch.
The Ravens will likely remember how Chase burned them earlier this season and give him more attention which should help free up Higgins, who has been putting up the better numbers lately with three games over 114 yards in his last four outings.
Other notables: Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,100 vs. LAR, Christian Kirk (ARI): $5,600 vs. IND, Darnell Mooney (CHI): $5,400 vs. SEA
FanDuel
Tyler Lockett (SEA): $7,300 vs. CHI
Lockett missed last week while on the COVID list but will likely be cleared before the Seahawks face the Bears on Sunday. While DK Metcalf struggles, Lockett has consistently produced double-digit FanDuel points in five of his last six games, including spikes over 20 twice during that stretch.
This season, the Bears’ secondary has been vulnerable to big plays, allowing 13.5 yards per reception (27th). They also haven’t been able to keep opposing wideout out of the end zone giving up 1.4 touchdowns (30th) per game to wide receivers this season.
Amari Cooper (DAL): $6,500 vs. WAS
My preference this week when pairing up a Cowboys wide receiver with Prescott is to look to the outside options with Cooper and Michael Gallup who have better individual matchups against the Washington secondary over CeeDee Lamb working out of the slot.
Cooper put up 51 yards and a score in the previous meeting a few weeks ago and should be able to exploit the Washington secondary that has allowed 14.4 receptions (31st) for 182 yards (29th) and 1.4 touchdowns (30th) per game to wide receivers this season.
Other notables: Cooper Kupp (LAR): $9,800 vs. MIN, Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): $7,100 vs. BAL, Darrell Mooney (CHI): $6,400 vs. SEA
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Mark Andrews (BAL): $7,000 vs. CIN
Andrews has posted back-to-back double-digit reception games with over 100 yards and at least one score with Tyler Huntley primarily under center for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson might return this week, but Andrews should be busy regardless of who is slinging the rock.
The Bengals have struggled to stop opposing tight ends over the last five weeks allowing a league-high 7.8 receptions for 97 yards while giving up 0.6 touchdowns (25th) per game during that stretch. Andrews has the most favorable matchup of the high-priced tight ends and works great in a game stack.
Other notables: Dallas Goedert (PHI): $5,100 vs. NYG, Cole Kmet (CHI): $3,300 vs. SEA
FanDuel
Kyle Pitts (ATL): $5,900 vs. DET
While Pitts hasn’t had the year that some hoped for him, he has put up solid numbers almost every week and has had a couple of spike games earlier in the season. There could be one more spike week coming this week with a favorable matchup against the Lions.
Over the last five weeks, the Lions have allowed 7.6 receptions (30th) for 79 yards (30th) per game to tight ends. Pitts hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5, but he did get three red-zone targets last week and could see some positive touchdown variance work in his favor this week.
Other notables: Dalton Schultz (DAL): $6,000 vs. NYG, Cole Kmet (CHI): $5,000 vs. SEA
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
49ers (SF): $3,100 vs. TEN
There isn’t much to like for DFS in the Thursday night game between the 49ers and Titans, except for the 49ers defense, which has 3.2 sacks (3rd) and 2.0 turnovers (6th) per game over the last five weeks. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed 3.0 sacks (28th) and 3.3 turnovers (32nd) per game over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Jaguars (JAC): $2,700 vs. NYJ, Bears (CHI): $2,500 vs. SEA
FanDuel
Bengals (CIN): $3,500 vs. BAL
The Bengals’ defense has registered at least three sacks in each of their last four games and forced multiple turnovers in three of their previous five outings. Over the last five weeks, the Ravens have surrendered a league-high 4.0 sacks per game.
Other notables: 49ers (SF): $4,100 vs. TEN, Raiders (LV): $3,900 vs. DEN
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