There is a big gap in Week 14 between the games with high Vegas point totals that we want to focus on for our GPP lineups and those with low to middling Vegas point totals. There are only five games on the full 14-game slate with a Vegas total of over 47 points, which is where most of your top GPP stacks and plays will be coming from this week.
As with most weeks, when building your GPP lineups, give strong consideration to double stack two players with your quarterback and include a bring-back option from the opposition. That path could be even more important than usual this week with so few game environments that we want to attack.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 14 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Josh Allen (BUF): $7,800 vs. TB
Allen has been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective in three of the last five weeks, but whether it was the weather, a blowout loss, or whatever in Jacksonville caused the off days, he is in a smash spot this week against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the league, and the Bills don’t try to run the ball anyway, so it should be a high volume passing day for Allen.
There is a big gap in Week 14 between the games with high Vegas point totals that we want to focus on for our GPP lineups and those with low to middling Vegas point totals. There are only five games on the full 14-game slate with a Vegas total of over 47 points, which is where most of your top GPP stacks and plays will be coming from this week.
As with most weeks, when building your GPP lineups, give strong consideration to double stack two players with your quarterback and include a bring-back option from the opposition. That path could be even more important than usual this week with so few game environments that we want to attack.
Win $1 Million playing FanDuel’s NFL Sunday Million
The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 14 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Josh Allen (BUF): $7,800 vs. TB
Allen has been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective in three of the last five weeks, but whether it was the weather, a blowout loss, or whatever in Jacksonville caused the off days, he is in a smash spot this week against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the league, and the Bills don’t try to run the ball anyway, so it should be a high volume passing day for Allen.
In the five games this season where Allen has attempted at least 42 passes, he has averaged 26.6 DraftKings points per game. The Buccaneers allow the league’s highest pass rate (67.2%). Allen should also need to keep his foot on the gas to keep up with the Buccaneers’ offense in what should be one of the highest-scoring affairs of the week.
Joe Burrow (CIN): $6,000 vs. SF
One of the game environments that might go a little overlooked but is sneaky good is in Cincinnati between the Bengals and the 49ers with a tight line and the fifth-highest Vegas total on the slate. The 49ers have played in back-to-back games that exceeded 53 total points, and the last six games the Bengals have played have produced at least 51 points scored.
The 49ers have boasted a solid run defense this season that ranks third DVOA, which should funnel more attempts to Burrow with a full complement of receivers who have plus matchups against a beatable 49ers secondary which has allowed 14.8 receptions (31st) for 172 yards (26th) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Justin Herbert (LAC): $7,100 vs. NYG, Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,700 vs. WAS
FanDuel
Dak Prescott (DAL): $8,100 vs. WAS
I expect Prescott to be one of the chalkier options on DraftKings, but he should be less owned on FanDuel, where he is the sixth-highest-priced option at the position. Yet, all the reasons he is a good play still exist between the two sites, and we can take advantage of his lower ownership in FanDuel GPPs.
Prescott will face a Washington defense that ranks 30th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) against the pass this season while allowing 275 passing yards (28th) and 2.2 touchdown passes (32nd) per game this season. Prescott has thrown for multiple scores in eight out of 11 games this season and should air it out for 40-plus attempts against the pass-funnel defense that has done well against the run.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): $6,700 vs. CIN
Investing in the 49ers’ passing game is typically something to avoid due to low volume, as the 49ers have one of the lowest pass rates in the league. However, this week could be different as the game script and player availability could force the 49ers’ hand to look to the air more often against the Bengals while the 49ers deal with injuries in the backfield.
Eli Mitchell is dealing with a concussion, and Deebo Samuel is still iffy with a groin injury that forced him to miss last week’s game. The result of those situations could put the ball in Garoppolo’s hand more often against a Bengals pass defense that has allowed 253 passing yards (24th) and 1.75 touchdown passes (27th) per game over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Tom Brady (TB): $8,200 vs. BUF, Matthew Stafford (LAR): $7,600 vs. ARI
Running Backs
DraftKings
Aaron Jones (GB): $6,200 vs. CHI
With the Packers coming off a bye and Jones only playing sparingly coming off an injury just before the bye, he will likely be an afterthought for DFS players coming into a Week 14 matchup against the Bears on Sunday night. However, with the extra rest and a very generous salary discount, Jones should be in line to take back the lead role in the Packers backfield.
The Bears have started to struggle to stop the run in recent weeks allowing 100 rushing yards (24th) per game to backs over the last five weeks on 4.35 YPC (22nd). With the weather turning colder on the tundra of Lambeau Field, the Packers will start to shift more to the ground game and short passing game, which benefits Jones.
Saquon Barkley (NYG): $6,000 vs. LAC
If not now, when? With Barkley over three weeks removed from returning from injury, he has seen his opportunities increase every game topping out at 20 looks (carries plus targets) last week. With Jake Fromm looking likely to start for the Giants this week against the Chargers, Barkley should see his workload tick up to 25-plus opportunities.
Take that volume level into a favorable matchup against a Chargers run defense that ranks 32nd DVOA and has allowed 119 rushing yards (31st) and 1.25 touchdowns (31st) per game to running backs this season, and we could finally get a spike game out of Barkley.
Other notables: Alexander Mattison (MIN): $7,800 vs. PIT, Leonard Fournette (TB): $7,400 vs. BUF, Antonio Gibson (WAS): $6,000 vs. DAL
FanDuel
Alexander Mattison (MIN): $8,200 vs. PIT
Assuming that the Vikings are without Dalvin Cook again this week on a short week leading up to the Vikings matchup against the Steelers on Thursday night, Mattison should be the workhorse back again. Mattison produced solid numbers last week with 124 total yards and a score against the Lions and should have another strong game against the surprisingly weak Steelers run defense.
The Steelers have been getting shredded on the ground recently, allowing 121 rushing yards (30th) and 1.4 touchdowns (30th) per game to running back over the last five weeks on 4.92 YPC (31st). The Steelers won over the Ravens last week, but those division rivalry games can take a lot out of the players, especially on a short week on the road.
Javonte Williams (DEN): $6,700 vs. DET
If Melvin Gordon is ruled out for the second straight game, this recommendation will become the chalkiest for all lineups by Sunday, but he is still likely the correct play even in GPPs. Williams crushed it in a full-time role last week with 178 total yards and a score against the Chiefs.
He gets a much easier matchup this week at home as a touchdown favorite against the Lions. The Lions have allowed 108 rushing yards (29th) and 0.9 touchdowns (28th) per game to running backs this season. If Gordon does play, I still think Williams can be used in GPPs as it will just come with lower ownership.
Other notables: Leonard Fournette (TB): $7,600 vs. BUF, Antonio Gibson (WAS): $7,400 vs. DAL, Alex Collins (SEA): $5,600 vs HOU
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Stefon Diggs (BUF): $8,100 vs. TB
While I’m listing Diggs here, I also have a lot of love for Cole Beasley ($5,000) and Dawson Knox ($5,000). I will certainly be using two of these three pass catchers in Allen stacks. Diggs, of course, does have the highest ceiling of the group but will cost you to get him.
The Buccaneers secondary has allowed 14.2 receptions (26th) for 164 yards (19th) and 1.0 touchdowns (18th) per game to wide receivers this season. We talked about volume in the Allen write up, and that should translate into double-digit looks for Diggs, who has averaged 21.3 DraftKings points in the five games he has reached that mark this season.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): $6,900 vs. SF
Tee Higgins ($6,400) has had the hot hand lately for the Bengals receiving corps, while Chase posted some mediocre numbers compared to his early-season success. This could be the week where the pendulum swings back in favor of Chase while getting him at lower ownership than Higgins.
While Chase is my preferred choice if using just one Bengals wideout, you could also consider doubling down on both receivers as the 49ers struggle to defend the outside routes that both players primarily run. The duo should divvy up a large portion of the 14.8 receptions (31st) for 172 yards (26th) that the 49ers secondary have allowed wide receivers over the last five weeks per game.
Other notables: CeeDee Lamb (DAL): $7,200 vs. WAS, Mike Evans (TB): $6,600 vs. BUF, Mike Williams (LAC): $6,000 vs. NYG
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin (WAS): $7,100 vs. DAL
McLaurin has turned into a GPP only option this season with boom-or-bust performances. He has topped 18 FanDuel points four times but has been held under nine FanDuel points in each of the other eight games. This week could be a “boom” for McLaurin with a favorable matchup and good game environment against the Cowboys.
The Cowboys’ secondary has given up a lot of big plays to wide receivers allowing 15.1 yards per reception (31st) with 183 yards (28th) and 1.0 touchdowns (18th) per game to the position. With Washington as a slight home underdog in a game with one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate, get ready for a McLaurin “boom” spot.
Amari Cooper (DAL): $6,700 vs. WAS
The biggest question with a Cowboys passing game stack is which receiver(s) to use. CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) figures to draw the most attention but is pricey. Michael Gallup ($6,100) is the cheapest and has posted double-digit FanDuel points in each of the last two games, so he will also draw plenty of attention. So, that leaves us with Cooper, the middle child (price) who will largely go overlooked, which is why he is the perfect pairing for GPPs this week.
The Washington secondary has allowed 14.4 receptions (31st) for 185 yards (29th) and 1.4 touchdowns (32nd) per game to wide receivers this season. That is plenty to go around if you even want to use two of the Cowboys wideouts, but I recommend one of them is Cooper.
Other notables: Cooper Kupp (LAR): $9,000 vs. ARI, DeAndre Hopkins (ARI): $7,300 vs. LAR, Mike Evans (TB): $7,200 vs. BUF
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,400 vs. LV
There is not much to like in the discount bin at the tight end this week, so it seems like we will need to make paying up at the position a priority in GPP lineups to realize any kind of upside. While Kelce’s production has been a little more inconsistent along with the Chiefs’ whole offense this season, he has seen at least eight targets in 10 of 12 games.
Kelce is one of the few tight ends capable of reaching the triple-digit receiving bonus and scoring multiple touchdowns, which accomplishing either (or both) feats will greatly separate him from the field at the position. Add in a very favorable matchup against the Raiders, who have allowed 6.1 receptions (29th) for 68 yards (32nd), and 0.75 touchdowns (30th) per game to the position, and it could be a Kelce or bust position in GPPs this week.
Other notables: George Kittle (SF): $6,900 vs. CIN, Austin Hooper (CLE): $3,400 vs. BAL
FanDuel
George Kittle (SF): $7,100 vs. CIN
Kittle was by far my best call of Week 13 as he crushed it with nine catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns. He could be walking into another game with a similar target volume if Deebo Samuel misses another game.
The Bengals have allowed 5.8 receptions (26th) for 69 yards (29th) and 0.75 touchdowns (25th) per game to the tight end position over the last five weeks. It could be another Kittle smash spot in a close and potentially high-scoring matchup against the Bengals.
Other notables: Travis Kelce (KC): $7,500 vs. LV, Pat Freiermuth (PIT): $5,200 vs. MIN
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Browns (CLE): $2,700 vs. BAL
With the minimum salary at DST creeping up to $2,300 on DraftKings, it puts defenses in the next tier up more in play like the Browns or Panthers. The Browns just forced four turnovers and two sacks against this same Ravens team just before their bye week and now will be at home to look to replicate that performance.
Other notables: Panthers (CAR): $2,800 vs. ATL, Giants (NYG): $2,300 vs. LAC
FanDuel
Chiefs (KC): $3,700 vs. LV
The Chiefs defense has put up double-digit FanDuel points in three of their last four games yet still aren’t getting any respect from the FanDuel pricing algorithm. The Chiefs will be at home for the third straight game taking advantage of the home crowd with an inspired defense in a divisional matchup against the Raiders, who they just held to 14 points with two sacks and two turnovers against a few weeks ago.
Other notables: Chargers (LAC): $4,300 vs. NYG, Jaguars (JAC): $3,200 vs. TEN
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