With Thanksgiving behind us and the calendar flipped to December, it is time for lucky Week 13 of the NFL season. There isn’t much to like when looking at the primetime island games for the full slate, but we can pepper in a few players from those games to complement our GPP lineups.
Overall, it looks like a good week for GPPs with no one game standing out as almost every game has a Vegas total between 45 and 51 points. This parity should help spread ownership for game stacks and allow us to pick and choose our favorite spots. There are many running backs to consider, and pricing at both sites has given us some challenges on which ones to roster.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 13 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Dak Prescott (DAL): $7,100 vs. NO
If there is one passing game stack in the primetime island games that I want a piece of, it will be Prescott and the Cowboys. This Thursday is unlike others as both teams playing had a whole week to prepare and rest after the Cowboys and Saints played on Thanksgiving.
Prescott gets a favorable matchup against a Saints pass defense that has allowed 268 passing yards (29th) and 2.2 touchdown passes (29th) per game over the last five weeks while giving up a league-high 8.98 yards per attempt. Outside of a dud against the Chiefs, Prescott has tossed multiple touchdown passes in six of his last seven games.
Kirk Cousins (MIN): $6,500 vs. DET
With Dalvin Cook out, Alexander Mattison will draw much attention as one of the chalkier running backs in a great matchup against the Lions. It sounds like the perfect time to pivot to the Vikings passing game behind Cousins against a Lions pass defense that ranks 28th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
Cousins has thrown for at least two scores in four straight games and five of the last six. He could also get the 300 passing yard bonus in a hurry with some big downfield plays against a secondary that has allowed a league-high 8.25 yards per attempt this season. The Vikings tend to play in close, high-scoring games regardless of their opponent, GPP gold.
Other notables: Joe Burrow (CIN): $6,300 vs. LAC, Taylor Heinicke (WAS): $5,600 vs. LV
FanDuel
Joe Burrow (CIN): $7,400 vs. LAC
While Vegas bunched all the win totals together, not all games are created equal. In GPPs, we want to look for game environments where the game could go back and forth, and shootout beyond the Vegas total as both teams have to keep their foot on the gas. The game that best fits that description this week is the Chargers/Bengals tilt.
Joe Mixon is on fire right now, and there is no reason to believe it will stop against a suspect Chargers’ run defense. But what if the Chargers sell out to stop the run? Or the Chargers jump out to an early lead? Suddenly, it could be the Burrow show slinging the rock 40 times while surrounded with great weapons in the passing game.
Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,300 vs. SF
There was a lot of hope and optimism for the Seahawks’ offense when Wilson returned from injury, but three straight uninspiring efforts have squashed that hope. Call me foolish, but I still have hope for the Seahawks’ passing game and that we have just seen a rusty Russ as he gets his rhythm back with his receivers.
It is much more challenging to run on the 49ers (second DVOA versus rush) than pass on the 49ers (22nd DVOA versus pass). So, Wilson gets another chance to “cook” this weekend. If the opportunities are there for Wilson, I like his chances to succeed sometime soon and post a spike game. It could be this week when nobody expects it.
Other notables: Tom Brady (TB): $8,100 vs. ATL, Kirk Cousins (MIN): $7,700 vs. DET
Running Backs
DraftKings
Austin Ekeler (LAC): $8,300 vs. CIN
If you are rolling out a Joe Burrow stack, consider using Ekeler as the bring-back option on the Chargers instead of one of the wide receivers. However, this week, Ekeler might outperform the wide receivers as the best way to attack the Bengals pass defense this season has been through a pass-catching back. Running backs have averaged 7.4 receptions (31st) for 56 yards (29th) per game.
Ekeler might get a bit lost in the ownership shuffle at running back this week with cheaper options in presumed better spots like Joe Mixon on the other side of the ball and Alexander Mattison. Ekeler has a safe floor due to his receiving and plenty of upside if he can find pay dirt multiple times in what could be a shootout against the Bengals.
Saquon Barkley (NYG): $6,300 vs. MIA
Since returning from injury, Barkley is still ramping up his snaps and touches as he will play his third game. He played on 87 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps last week and had 17 touches, so we could see Barkley unleashed to 20-plus touches against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have been solid against the run this season, ranking 12th DVOA and allowing 4.22 YPC (16th), which could even further suppress Barkley’s ownership. We will rely on volume and talent to give Barkley upside capable of being in a winning GPP lineup this week.
Other notables: James Conner (ARI): $5,900 vs. CHI, Antonio Gibson (WAS): $5,700 vs. LV, Miles Sanders (PHI): $5,200 vs. NYJ
FanDuel
James Conner (ARI): $7,300 vs. CHI
With Chase Edmonds still out, the Cardinals backfield features Conner, who has scored in five straight games and has at least 21 carries in two of the last three games. The Cardinals’ offense could get a boost if Kyler Murray returns this week, which should help Conner take some pressure off the ground game and put the Cardinals in scoring position more often.
He should get plenty of opportunities with the Cardinals more than a touchdown favorite against the Bears. The Bears have a league-average run defense that ranks 19th DVOA and has allowed 4.43 YPC (23rd) to running backs this season.
Antonio Gibson (WAS): $6,200 vs. LV
Don’t look now, but Gibson might be finally getting the role and usage that we all wanted for him since the beginning of the season. He has at least 19 carries in his last three games and saw a season-high seven targets and catches on Monday night.
Yet, his salary remains very attractive in a good matchup and game environment against the Raiders this week. The Raiders have allowed 100 rushing yards (22nd) and 0.8 touchdowns (24th) per game to running backs this season. Gibson has GPP upside and might even find his way into my Cash game lineup at this price.
Other notables: Jonathan Taylor (IND): $10.500 vs. HOU, Eli Mitchell (SF): $7,600 vs. SEA, David Montgomery (CHI): $6,500 vs. ARI
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,200 vs. DET
Somehow Jefferson always seems to be lower than you would think for a player with so much talent and upside every week. This week will likely be no different with a potentially chalky Vikings running back, Mattison, and Jefferson’s high salary.
Jefferson is starting to get fed the ball like a number one wideout averaging ten targets per game over the last three weeks. With his big-play ability, he can easily translate those targets into a GPP winning score as he did against the Packers a couple of weeks ago when he put up 169 yards and two scores. The Lions’ secondary is vulnerable to big plays opposing wide receivers, allowing 14.4 yards per reception (29th) this season. I also like Josh Reynolds as a cheap bring-back for the Lions against a week Vikings secondary.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): $6,700 vs. NO
Keep an eye on the injury report at wide receiver for the Cowboys on Thursday night, but assuming Lamb plays (and Amari Cooper doesn’t), Lamb should get a lot of looks moving all over the formation. He has posted at least 84 yards in four of the last five full games he has played and scored multiple times in two of those games.
The Saints secondary has allowed a lot of production to the wide receiver position over the last five weeks with 13.6 receptions (27th) for 197 yards (31st) and 1.2 touchdowns (27th). If you want to consider a double-stack, then give the reasonably priced Michael Gallup ($5,200) a look.
Other notables: Tyreek Hill (KC): $8,400 vs. DEN, Terry McLaurin (WAS): $7,400 vs. LV, Josh Reynolds (DET): $3,400 vs. MIN
FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): $7,500 vs. LAC
Chase has had limited production over the last few games as the Bengals have focused on the ground game more, which has reduced his targets (just nine in the previous two games). Now could be an excellent time to buy back in on Chase in a potential shootout against the Chargers.
Chase hasn’t gone back-to-back games without a touchdown this season, and after putting up a goose egg in the touchdown department last week, he should find his way to the end zone this week while getting him in a favorable matchup on the outside.
DK Metcalf (SEA): $7,300 vs. SF
The bottom has dropped out on Metcalf over the last three weeks despite the return of Wilson at quarterback. Metcalf has a total of eight catches for a mere 70 yards over those three games and will be DTM (dead to me) to most DFS players.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I have a bunch that there is a significant correction coming soon where we are all reminded of the freak athlete and kicking ourselves for bailing. That could even come this week against the 49ers, which Metcalf has had some good games against, averaging six receptions for 80 yards and just under one score per game in five meetings.
Other notables: Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,000 vs. DET, Chris Godwin (TB): $7,600 vs. ATL, Mike Williams (LAC): $6,500 vs. CIN
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Noah Fant (DEN): $4,400 vs. KC
There are a lot of good tight-end options in the same salary range as Fant this week. However, I like the big-play potential from Fant in a matchup against the Chiefs, which should force the Broncos to increase their pass volume.
The Chiefs have allowed 5.4 receptions (24th) for 63 yards (28th) and 0.6 touchdowns (26th) per game to tight ends this season. Consider a skinny stack with Fant and Tyreek Hill for a Sunday night hammer.
Other notables: Logan Thomas (WAS): $4,000 vs. LV, Tyler Conklin (MIN): $3,700 vs. DET
FanDuel
George Kittle (SF): $6,300 vs. SEA
With Deebo Samuel out, a lot of attention by DFS players will be on Brandon Ayiuk. While that is probably warranted, don’t sleep on Kittle becoming more involved in the passing game and, more importantly, around the goal line.
The Seahawks have allowed 6.5 receptions (28th) for 57 yards (20th) and 0.5 touchdowns (21st) per game to tight ends over the last five weeks. Kittle is a great bring-back option in Wilson stacks or as a skinny stack with Metcalf.
Other notables: Logan Thomas (WAS): $5,600 vs. LV, Pat Freiermuth (PIT): $5,400 vs. BAL
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Giants (NYG): $2,700 vs. MIA
The Dolphins are one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, which gives opposing defenses plenty of opportunities for splash plays like sacks and turnovers. The Giants’ defense has been coming on lately with seven or more DraftKings points in four of their last five outings.
Other notables: Buccaneers (TB): $3,500 vs. ATL, Washington (WAS): $2,500 vs. LV
FanDuel
Chiefs (KC): $3,300 vs. DEN
It feels like a misprice on FanDuel for the Chiefs defense this week playing at home, coming off a bye against the Broncos. In recent weeks, the Chiefs defense has come on strong, reaching double-digit FanDuel points in two of the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed 2.8 sacks (26th) per game this season.
Other notables: Dolphins (MIA): $4,000 vs. NYG, Washington (WAS): $3,400 vs. LV
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Brad Richter is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
