NBA DFS Primer: Wednesday (12/1)

Tuesday’s slate was marvelous! The two highlight games lived up to expectations, and it makes you realize just how special basketball can be! It was also a profitable DFS day for us, capitalizing on the Damian Lillard and LeBron James news. Late scratches are things we can’t predict the night before, and that needs to be considered when reading these articles published 10 hours before the slate even begins.

After a small five-game slate on Tuesday, we’re back to a full nine-game card here. We’ve had a lot of those recently, and that’s a regular thing for a Wednesday slate. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s kick things off with the schedule!

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Schedule and Odds

• ATL at IND (IND -1.5) O/U: 218
• DEN at ORL (DEN -10) O/U: 207.5
• MIN at WAS (WAS -3.5) O/U: 216
• PHI at BOS (BOS -2) O/U: 211.5
• CLE at MIA (MIA -8.5) O/U: 204
• DAL at NOP (DAL -3.5) O/U: 213
• CHA at MIL (MIL -9) O/U: 229
• HOU at OKC (OKC -3) O/U: 213
• SAC at LAC (LAC -7.5) O/U: 215.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Ben Simmons (Personal) OUT
• Jamal Murray (knee) OUT
• Tyler Herro (sickness) Probable
• Jaylen Brown (hamstring) Questionable
• Anthony Edwards (illness) Questionable
• Jimmy Butler (back) Questionable
• Harrison Barnes (foot) Doubtful
• Michael Porter Jr (back) OUT
• Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) Questionable
• Kawhi Leonard (knee) OUT
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• Bam Adebayo (thumb) Questionable
• Myles Turner (illness) Questionable

Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $11,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
How nice is it to have the Joker back in action? Denver certainly appreciated it, snapping their six-game slide with a dominating win over Miami in his return. The 2020 MVP was doing his usual thing in that game, collecting 57 DraftKings points against a stout Miami defense. He’s scored at least 50 fantasy points in 10-straight games and should easily reach that total against a 27th-ranked Orlando defense.

Paul George (SG/SF – LAC): $10,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
PG just had one of his worst games of the season, but 35 DraftKings points are nothing to scoff at. That “dud” lowered his season average to 47 DraftKings points per game, and we believe that will be his floor in a matchup like this. The Kings rank 26th in defensive efficiency and 27th in points allowed, with PG13 dropping 51.3 DK points in their most recent meeting.

Christian Wood (C – HOU): $8,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Wood is one of the most talented players in the NBA, and he’s showing why recently. The big man has scored at least 41 DK points in four of his last five games, dropping 60-plus in his last two. The most recent one came against this subpar Thunder defense, and we love that he’s got a 51-point average in three meetings with OKC this season.

Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,600 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Doncic is already leading the NBA usage, and you better believe it will be sky-high with Kristaps Porzingis likely sitting this game out. With KP off the floor this season, Doncic has a 38 percent usage rate while averaging 1.51 DK points per minute. To put that in perspective, that’d equate to nearly 60 DK points if he plays the 35 minutes we anticipate. That feels even more likely in a matchup like this, with New Orleans ranked 25th in defensive efficiency.

Malcolm Brogdon (PG – IND): $7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Brogdon is one of the league leaders in minutes played, and it’s made him one of the most consistent players in fantasy. The former Virginia guard has scored at least 28 DK points in all but two outings this season, dropping 38 or more DK points in 13 of 18 games. That makes it hard to understand why he remains below $8K, especially with Brogo scoring at least 41 fantasy points in his two meetings with the Hawks last season.

Jrue Holiday (PG – MIL): $6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Holiday’s price is getting to a point where we can’t pass it up. This guy was north of $8K for most of last season and should play at that level in a matchup like this. Charlotte currently ranks third in pace, 27th in defensive efficiency, and 29th in points allowed. They’ve also been allowing opposing backcourts to feast, which is scary since Holiday has at least 33 DraftKings points in four straight fixtures.

GPP Targets

Mo Bamba (C – ORL): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Mo is all over the map in terms of consistency, but his upside is nuts. The big man provided a 48-point gem in his most recent outing, which is not even his season-high total. He’s also failed to crack 20 DK points a few times over the last two weeks, and it makes him one of the most volatile options out there. With that said, it’s hard to overlook 50-point upside from someone in this price range.

P.J. Washington (PF/C – CHA): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
With Mason Plumlee likely sitting again, Washington is an excellent pivot. Despite coming off the bench on Monday, Washington is averaging 29.7 DK points across 30 minutes of action in the three games since Plumlee got injured. That’s all you can ask for from a $5K player, and his size will be mandatory against a lengthy team like Milwaukee.

Devonte’ Graham (PG/SG – DAL): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Graham is the stereotypical GPP player. This guy can drop 40 fantasy points just as easily as he can drop 10. With that said, Graham has at least 25 DK points in 13 of 20 games this season, en route to a 27-point average. That’s hard to omit from someone this cheap, especially with Graham likely matching up with Doncic and his crappy defense.

Value Plays

Daniel Gafford (C – WAS): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Washington was messing with Gafford’s minutes early on, but recent results are really encouraging. The former Bull has scored at least 31 DraftKings points in three-straight games, usurping Montrezl Harrell in terms of rotation minutes. That makes the $4,800 price tag laughable, particularly with Minnesota owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing centers. That’s no surprise with the weak defense that Karl-Anthony Towns plays.

Marcus Morris (SF/PF – LAC): $4,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Morris has only played two games this season, but it appears people have forgotten how good this guy can be. Morris was a borderline All-Star in his day with the Knicks, and he was arguably the third-best player on this roster last year. He’s probably second with Kawhi Leonard out of the picture, dropping 28 DK points across 34 minutes in his most recent outing. That means the minutes limit has been lifted, making Morris a menacing option against a stinky Sacramento defense.

Maxi Kleber (PF/C – DAL): $4,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
If Porzingis sits this game out, Kleber should be in line for a start and 30 minutes of play. If you look at the 27 games Maxi has played at least 29 minutes since the beginning of last season, he’s averaging nearly 25 DK points per game. That’s a brilliant number from a $4,500 player, and we certainly don’t anticipate a 27th-ranked Pelicans defense to prevent him from reaching that average.

Advantageous Pricing

• Paul George (SG/SF – LAC): $10,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
• Daniel Gafford (C – WAS): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
• Domantas Sabonis (PF/C – IND): $9,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
• Evan Mobley (C – CLE): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
• Jonas Valanciunas (C – NOP): $9,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
• Richaun Holmes (C – SAC): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts