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NBA DFS Primer: Sunday (12/5)

Yesterday’s six-game slate ended up being pretty much as we expected, straightforward with the value that opened up after Luka Doncic, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown and, Giannis Antetokonmpou all sat out due to injuries became a must. So today, we get just three games to tackle. The number of games we had yesterday, as I said, I feel, is the sweet spot in DFS, but I’m not as enthusiastic about having a much smaller slate today. Options are minimal with just three games, making it more difficult to get unique, so you’re not splitting your winnings with multiple other players. Therefore, it will be crucial to pay attention to the value that opens up today to gain an edge. Make sure you’re taking some stands as well, such as pivoting from high rostered players to others who are lower rostered but project just as well in an attempt to separate your lineup from the rest of the field. Now, let’s go ahead and jump into things and see if we can’t end this weekend with a bang.

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Schedule and Odds

CHA @ ATL (ATL -8) O/U: 224.5
WAS @ TOR (TOR -1.5) O/U: 211.5
NO @ HOU (NO -3) O/U: 221

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

Trae Young (quadriceps) GTD
Kevin Huerter (quadriceps) GTD
Cam Reddish (illness) GTD
Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) OUT
De’Andre Hunter (wrist) OUT
Onyeka Okongwu (shoulder) OUT
Terry Rozier (COVID-19) OUT
LaMelo Ball (COVID-19) OUT
Mason Plumlee (COVID-19) OUT
Jalen McDaniels (COVID-19) OUT
Cody Martin (illness) GTD
Rui Hachimura (personal) OUT
Thomas Bryant (knee) OUT
OG Anunoby (hip) OUT
Khem Birch (knee) OUT
Josh Hart (knee) GTD
Daulton Hommes (leg) OUT
Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
Usman Guruba (thigh) OUT
Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) OUT
Jalen Green (hamstring) OUT
John Wall (not injury related) OUT

Core Plays

Trae Young (PG-ATL): $10,300 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Trae Young is the most expensive player we have today, but that’s one of the reasons I want to look his way. The field may be hesitant to pay that price tag, making his roster % appealing, so I really will be interested in Trae Young if that is the case. In addition, young has been one of the more consistent players in fantasy, scoring 40 or more fantasy points in his last six games. His upside becomes even better with the matchup against the Charlotte Hornets today. The Hornets are third in pace of play and the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed. He does carry an injury designation heading into tonight so keep an eye on that, but if he’s able to play, he will be an excellent player to build lineups around.

Brandon Ingram (SF-NO): $7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Ingram is underpriced on DraftKings; in my opinion, he should be closer to the $9,000 range like he is on FanDuel. With Zion Williamson (foot) still sidelined, Ingram has been given the keys to this Pelicans offense. He has a 42 point average over his last six games, putting up at least 37 DK points in five of those. Additionally, Ingram draws a juicy matchup in the Houston Rockets, who are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to total defense, ranking 27th. Mix that in with the fact that Houston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, and there will be plenty of opportunities for Brandon Ingram to go off tonight.

Miles Bridges (SF/PF-CHA): $8,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
There’s no doubt; Miles Bridges is having the best season of his career so far. The Hornets have been decimated with a COVID-19 outbreak, which landed key players Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball on the league’s safety protocol list. With them out, Miles Bridges and Kelly Oubre will be the focal point of this offense, with Bridges leading the way. The Charlotte forward leads the team with 36.2 minutes and is second in scoring behind LaMelo, with that number sure to rise tonight. He’s averaging 39 DK points per game and has scored at least 36 fantasy points in 18 of 23 games, a model of consistency from a sub 9K player. Atlanta ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, and the last time Bridges faced them, he went off for 54 fantasy points. With Ball and Rozier out, Bridges usage rate is going to skyrocket, and he’ll see a massive bump in shots attempts, as well. Bridges projects to be one of the best options on today’s slate.

Cash Game Considerations

Ish Smith (PG-CHA): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
As previously stated, Charlotte is down many players, leaving a ton of minutes and opportunities on the table for players like Ish Smith. Smith should find himself in the starting rotation on Sunday as a result. In the past, he’s been productive in these fill-in situations, and he should be asked to do a ton taking on the lead role in this backcourt. In addition, Smith should give managers an excellent return on investment, potentially going up against Trae Young, one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

Herbert Jones (PF/C-NO): $3,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
With Zion being out for extended time this season, Herbert Jones has filled in for him and has been a decent fantasy player. However, he’s much more appealing on DraftKings being over a thousand dollars cheaper, which makes the chances of him paying off his salary increase. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 24 DK points in 31 minutes per game. That’s more than enough of a floor to throw him into cash game consideration.

Eric Gordon (SG/SF-HOU): $5,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Gordon typically wouldn’t find his way into this segment, but injuries will thrust him into fantasy relevance tonight. The Rockets will be without starters Jalen Green (hamstring) and Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh). Gordon stepped in on Friday against Orlando and had a team-high 24 points while hitting four of his six three-point attempts. Opportunity alone tonight should give Gordon a solid enough floor not to hurt your cash lineup, and it will be an added bonus if he can get hot from behind the arc again.

GPP Targets

Jonas Valanciunas (C-NO): $9,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
The Pelican big man has seven double-doubles in his last nine games, with one of those games being a stunning 70 point fantasy performance on DraftKings. I will pay up for him on both sites, but his FanDuel salary is tremendously appealing as we have seen he is more than capable of blowing that tag out of the water. We have already talked about the pace Houston plays with, which will lead to plenty of extra chances for rebounds, shots, and block attempts. In JV’s most recent matchup against Houston, he went off for a 30 point, 15 rebound double-double.

Christian Wood (C-HOU): $9,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
We have already discussed Houston being down a couple of key players, so the Rockets offense will run mainly through the big man Christian Wood and Ja’Sean Tate. Minus the game where he left early with an ankle injury, Wood has averaged 56 fantasy points on DK and FD over his last three games. We have shed light on this pace of play and appealing game environment multiple times in this article, just another reason to look Wood’s way tonight.

Fred VanVleet (PG/SG-TOR): $9,200 DraftKings, $7,900
I love VanVleet’s price tag on FanDuel, but I would still pay up for him on DraftKings in a GPP tonight as I believe that steep tag could keep his roster % suppressed. He’s one of the slate’s better plays, and he gets a decent matchup against the Washington Wizards. He’s played at least 36 minutes in his last six games straight, and he’s put up at least 40.0 FanDuel points in four of his previous five games. Projection models are in on VanVleet as well, projecting him for 39.4 fantasy points, second-most among guard-eligible players tonight.

Value Plays

Precious Achiuwa (PF/C-TOR): $4,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
There are some excellent pay-up options at center, don’t his slate, so I like that Precious Achiuwa is power forward eligible so I can plug him in alongside a Christian Wood or Jonas Valanciunas. Models make him the top point-per-dollar option among forwards and centers, which is very enticing. He should see around 33 minutes tonight with a projection of over 25 fantasy points with that ability to put up more. He will be a nice pivot from some of the other value options on tonight’s slate.

Garrison Mathews (SG/SF-HOU): $4,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The Rockets have been without number two overall pick Jalen Green (hamstring) for the last four games, and Mathews has stepped into a starting role as a result. Mathews has taken advantage of the opportunity and put up solid numbers in the games he has started. In the four-game span, he has averaged 17.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 4.3 made 3-pointers while playing big minutes (34.7). Mathews gives fantasy managers excellent opportunity and scoring upside, so they can look his way for some salary relief tonight to get some of those studs in your lineups.

Devonte’ Graham (PG-NO): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
I think Graham’s salary is too cheap for his production. He has averaged over 25 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel, which means his salary should be around the 6k plus range. His recent production is the reason for the discount, but the ability is there, so I’ll take my chances. He’s going to have the ball in his hand a ton, and once again, the Houston Rockets play at the fastest pace in the game, which will allow for an uptick in scoring and assists opportunities for Graham. Houston also has an OPRK of 27th against guards. All things lineup for Graham to have an excellent bounce-back game here at a discounted price point.