After a sizeable nine-game slate on Friday, we get an appealing six games to kick off the weekend. Middle of the pack slates like today signifies what I consider to be the sweet spot. The player pool becomes a lot more condensed, making it somewhat less challenging to identify the players who have the highest percentage of being optimal. There’s also still enough value that opens up throughout the day, allowing you to differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field. Indeed, taking down any DFS contest is never a walk in the park, but smaller slates are somewhat less complicated. They’re fewer games which means smaller player pools and less news to sift through, allowing for more concise lineup decisions. So let’s highlight some aspects of this slate I feel can help us navigate it and find our way to the top of the leader boards, starting with the game totals.
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Schedule and Odds
- CHI @ BKN (BKN -3) O/U: 220
- MIA @ MIL (MIL -7) O/U:211
- MEM @ DAL (MEM -1) O/U: 214.5
- SAS @ GSW (GSW -8.5) O/U: 219
- BOS @ POR (BOS -2) O/U: 211.5
- LAC @ SAC (LAC -1.5) O/U: 219.5
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
After a sizeable nine-game slate on Friday, we get an appealing six games to kick off the weekend. Middle of the pack slates like today signifies what I consider to be the sweet spot. The player pool becomes a lot more condensed, making it somewhat less challenging to identify the players who have the highest percentage of being optimal. There’s also still enough value that opens up throughout the day, allowing you to differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field. Indeed, taking down any DFS contest is never a walk in the park, but smaller slates are somewhat less complicated. They’re fewer games which means smaller player pools and less news to sift through, allowing for more concise lineup decisions. So let’s highlight some aspects of this slate I feel can help us navigate it and find our way to the top of the leader boards, starting with the game totals.
Claim Your Deposit Bonus and Free Credit Now
Schedule and Odds
- CHI @ BKN (BKN -3) O/U: 220
- MIA @ MIL (MIL -7) O/U:211
- MEM @ DAL (MEM -1) O/U: 214.5
- SAS @ GSW (GSW -8.5) O/U: 219
- BOS @ POR (BOS -2) O/U: 211.5
- LAC @ SAC (LAC -1.5) O/U: 219.5
Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros
Injury Report
As always, keep up with all the news throughout the day regarding today’s games. Actives verse inactive, of course, will be the most crucial piece of information to pay close attention to tonight. Doing so will allow you to target the top value plays and necessary pivots, which is a must if you want to take down a tournament. While tomorrow is a smaller slate, it’s jammed packed with a lot of the NBA’s stars with a couple already listed as out, which will certainly open things up. There will be a lot to unravel, and it will be essential to have the optimal lineup today. Finally, stay tuned until lock and beyond to take advantage of late swapping, as it to can be the difference between a significant payday or taking a massive hit to your bankroll.
Core Plays
Khris Middleton (SF/SG-MIL): $7,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Middleton will find himself as one of the more popular plays tonight, and rightfully so. We already know that Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is unlikely to play, making Middleton an extreme value on both DK ad FD. In 42 career games without the multi-time league MVP, Khris Middleton has averaged 21.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. There’s no doubt he will be chalky, but sometimes you have to eat the excellent chalk and find elsewhere to differentiate. Middleton should be a cornerstone of many lineups on a six-game slate.
CJ McCollum (PG/SG-POR): $9,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
With Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Afernee Simons already ruled out tonight, McCollum will boast a 35.9% usage rate. He’s going to get a bump across the board which should result in him being able to smash his salary, especially on FanDuel, where he’s only $8,200. Over the last two contests, McCollum has averaged 41.3 fantasy points, and he should have little to no trouble putting up similar if not better production tonight as he should have the ball in his hands a ton. Projection models completely adore McCollum tonight as he projects to be one of the top plays on tonight’s slate. Make sure you have some exposure to the Portland guard.
Cash Game Considerations
Tyler Herro (PG/SG-MIA): $7,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Being down two critical pieces to their starting rotation in Jimmy Butler (back) and Bam Adebayo (thumb), the Miami Heat have moved Tyler Herro into the starting lineup. As a result, Herro is getting big minutes, averaging 35 minutes over the last four outings. We should see that trend continue again tonight in a pace-up spot against the Milwaukee Bucks. Herro projects well against the Bucks, who carry an OPRK of 29th and will be down arguably the league’s best two-way player in Giannis (calf). Minutes and opportunity make Herro a strong cash game consideration tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C-BKN): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Aldridge is also a good value piece and could find his way into the GPP segment as well, but I like the floor he provides for cash games. LMA has given steady production as of late, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in seven straight, and we have seen upside games from him where he has put up multiple 30 point plus performances. Aldridge is a low-salary play that gives fantasy managers a solid floor tonight, precisely what you want when you’re looking for players to plug into a cash game lineup. He’s also a cheap way to get a piece of this Brooklyn Nets-Chicago Bulls matchup that should be a perfect storm for fantasy, holding a slate-best 220 point total.
Norman Powell (SF-POR): $5,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Powell has been removed from the injury report for tonight’s game, and he’s another TrailBlazer that stands to benefit from the absence of teammates Damian Lillard and Afernee Simons. He should jump back into his standard minutes and see his usual workload, and with both Lillard and Simons off the court this season, he’s increased his usage rate to 28.0%. As a result, Powell carries significantly more upside, heading into tonight’s matchup at below $5,500 on both sites and a bump in usage. He should easily pay off 5 to 6 times his salary, giving fantasy managers an excellent return on investment.
GPP Targets
Kevin Durant (SF/PF-BKN): $11,300 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Durant currently finds himself second in the MVP race, averaging 28.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on a 54/39/86 shooting split with an efficient 54% from the field. That’s a higher shooting percentage than every guard and small forward in the NBA. As I’m sure you know, Durant can go absolutely bananas on any given slate, which makes him a perfect GPP candidate. There’s plenty of high-end options to target tonight which but Durant is going to be one of my favorites, especially if he ends up with a lower roster percentage than expected as a result. The game environment will be perfect for fantasy, with Durant being one of the essential plays in the matchup. The game carries a 220 point total, and it doesn’t hurt Durant’s outlook that the Chicago Bulls have an OPRK of 25. Durant has the potential to break this six-game slate wide open.
Kyle Lowry (PG-MIA): $7,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
As we know, both Jimmy Butler (back) and Bam Adebayo (thumb) have already been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against the Bucks, which opens up a ton of usage and opportunity for Kyle Lowry. The veteran point guard has a 21% usage rate this season, with both Butler and Adebayo off the court up from 18%. This may seem like a tough matchup on paper, but the Bucks take a big step back defensively with Giannis out of the lineup. His price tag on DraftKings may give managers some pause, but Lowry’s FanDuel salary is exceptionally too low.
Jrue Holiday (PG-MIL): $7,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
The Bucks and Heat both will be missing key pieces to their lineups tonight, with Giannis, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo already being ruled out. That means they will be two teams a lot of managers turn to for players who will see an increase in production due to the injuries. Jrue Holiday will be one of the primary beneficiaries of the absence of the FREAK. Holiday’s usage rate increases from 19.9% to 28.7% with Giannis off the floor. He and Khris Middleton both project tremendously well tonight as they will see an increase in production across the board.
Value Plays
Maxi Kleber (PF/C-DAL): $4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
With all the injuries on tonight’s slate, there will be a ton of value, and getting the correct pieces will be essential to having the optimal lineup. Kleber looks to be one of those value plays we will look to for some production with Kristap Porzingis (knee) ruled out for tonight’s game. Kleber played 31 minutes and fell short of posting a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds against the Pelicans. However, he should be in line for the same amount of playing time tonight and, in turn, be able to easily pay off a sub 5K price tag.
Dewayne Dedmon (C-MIA): $3,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Once again, we will highlight a player benefiting from a starter being out in Bam Adebayo (thumb). He is specifically a DraftKings play, as his FanDuel salary is just a little too rich for my blood. At only $3,700, though, he should see enough minutes to pay that off with ease and potentially get enough run to smash that tag. The game before last, he logged 31 minutes and had a double-double. We may not get that type of game out of Dedmon here, but he still should be able to do enough to return value on DraftKings.
Dennis Smith Jr. (PG-POR): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
This Portland backcourt is banged up right now, and Smith looks to be one of the main beneficiaries of the mess. He hasn’t gotten many opportunities this season, but on a per 30 basis, Smith is averaging nine points, seven assists, and over three rebounds. That’s more than enough production to give fantasy managers a decent return on investment tonight with the current state of this Portland backcourt.
Advantageous Pricing
- Dewayne Dedmon (C-MIA): $3,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
- Dennis Smith Jr. (PG-POR): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
- Kyle Lowry (PG-MIA): $7,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
- CJ McCollum (SG-POR)): $9,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
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Evan Ritter is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Evan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter.