NBA DFS Primer: Monday (12/6)

Last week was one of my best weeks of the season. Injuries can really suck at times, but it’s a great time to thrive for DFS purposes. That opens up a ton of value, and it’s beneficial for those of us that pay attention every day. The injury list is extensive on this slate, too, and it’ll surely lead to more value than usual. As someone recovering from ACL surgery, I wish the best for these guys and pray for speedy recoveries.

The Sunday card was one of the smallest of the season. There were just three games on the main card, but we’re back to a full one here. We have 10 games making up this Monday slate, and it should be a fun day of basketball. With that in mind., let’s kick things off with the schedule and odds.

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Schedule and Odds

• OKC at DET (DET -4.5) O/U: 206
• WAS at IND (IND -5) O/U: 212
• PHI at CHA (PHI -5.5) O/U: 219.5
• MEM at MIA (MIA -5.5) O/U: 216
• DEN at CHI (CHI -4.5) O/U: 215
• CLE at MIL (MIL -8) O/U: 213.5
• ATL at MIN (MIN -2) O/U: 220
• SAS at PHX (PHX -8) O/U: 218.5
• ORL at GSW (GSW -14) O/U: 216
• LAC at POR (LAC -2) O/U: 215.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• LaMelo Ball (COVID) OUT
• Terry Rozier (COVID) OUT
• Mason Plumlee (COVID) OUT
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (concussion) Questionable
• Devin Booker (hamstring) OUT
• T.J. McConnell (wrist) OUT
• Tobias Harris (illness) Questionable
• Ben Simmons (personal) OUT
• Ja Morant (knee) OUT
• Bam Adebayo (hand) OUT
• Jimmy Butler (tailbone)
• Michael Porter Jr (back) OUT
• Jamal Murray (knee) OUT
• Alex Caruso (hamstring) Questionable
• Collin Sexton (knee) OUT
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) Questionable
• Trae Young (knee) Questionable
• Karl-Anthony Towns (tailbone)
• Damian Lillard (abdomen) OUT

Core Plays

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $11,000 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Embiid has been struggling with his shot recently, but he’s still doing serious damage. Joel has scored at least 55 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, averaging 56 DK points per game in that span. That makes him really tough to fade in a matchup like this, with Charlotte ranked third in pace and dead-last in points surrendered.

Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $8,300 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
With Book expected to miss this game, CP3 should be running the show. He usually is anyway, but we love that he’ll see an increase in usage and shot attempts with DB out of the lineup. With Booker off the floor, Paul is averaging over 1.2 DK points per minute which is scary since he’s scored at least 28 DK points in six straight games en route to a 37-point average in that span. We also don’t mind that San Antonio owns a 26th OPRK against opposing point guards, either.

Tyler Herro (PG/SG – MIA): $7,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Herro is the man in Miami right now. He was already in the midst of a breakout season, but he’s being asked to do a ton with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both out of the lineup. He’s got a 33 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor, leading the team in shot attempts and minutes played. That’s led to him scoring at least 28 fantasy points in 11 straight games while posting a 34-point average in that span. The matchup with Memphis is majestic, too, and we’ll discuss that more later on.

Cash Game Considerations

Paul George (SG/SF – LAC): $10,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
This FanDuel price made my jaw drop. He’s likely going to be used in every lineup over there, and he probably should be. We’re talking about a guy who’s scored at least 32 DraftKings points in every game this season, averaging over 46 fantasy points per game. That’s brilliant from someone in this price range, and he should go off again versus a 29th-ranked Portland defense.

Deandre Ayton (C – PHX): $7,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
DA has quietly been one of the most reliable players in DFS. The big man has scored at least 31 fantasy points in 13 of his last 14 games, scoring at least 34 DK points in 12 of 17 games this year. That’s a brilliant floor from a sub-$8K player, and you know he’ll be asked to do more here with Booker out of the picture. DA went off in this matchup earlier this season, too, collecting 21 points and 14 rebounds en route to 46 DK points.

Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $7,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
We foreshadowed the Memphis matchup earlier, so let’s kick things off by starting with that. The Grizzlies might be the best matchup in fantasy basketball, ranked 26th in points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency. We love that with Lowry looking at an expanded role, averaging 32.6 DK points per game for the season, despite Bam and Butler being on the floor.

GPP Targets

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG – WAS): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Dinwiddie’s recent form has given us no reason to trust him, but this guy is too good to be this cheap. Despite his recent struggles, Dinwiddie is still averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game for the season. You really can’t ask for any more from a sub-$6K player, especially with Spencer’s minutes staying above 30-plus regularly. One of the biggest reasons we think he can snap his slide is this matchup, though, with Dinwiddie tallying 34 points, six rebounds, and nine assists in his one matchup with the Pacers earlier this season.

Kelly Oubre Jr (SG/SF – CHA): $5,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward got major price bumps with the Charlotte COVID breakout, but they’re sleeping on Oubre for whatever reason. In the first game without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Mason Plumlee, Oubre dropped 39 DK points across 40 minutes of play. That continues a stellar stretch for Kelly, compiling at least 30 DK points in five straight outings.

Dennis Smith Jr (PG – POR): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
This guy has been a major bust because of how high he was drafted, but he’s found an excellent role in Portland. Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Anfernee Simons are all nicked up for the Trail Blazers, and it’s forced Smith into a colossal playmaking role. In the first game without Dame and Simons, DSJ dropped 42 DK points across 37 minutes of play. If two of those guys are out, Smith is a brilliant value and if McCollum is out, DSJ is the play of the day!

Value Plays

Ish Smith (PG – CHA): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Smith has always been a consummate professional, filling in when he’s asked. While he’s only made 27 starts since 2019, Ish is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game in those outings. That’s just what he did in his start on Sunday, accruing 37 DraftKings points in his start for Ball and Rozier. Look for him to continue to play massive minutes and handle the ball regularly for this shorthanded club.

Cameron Johnson (SG/SF – PHX): $4,400 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
It’s easy to see Ayton and CP3 stepping up in the absence of Booker, but Cam has also taken a major step forward. In fact, CJ is averaging 27 DK points per game across 30 minutes a night over his last three fixtures. That’s tough to find from a guy barely cracking $4,000, especially with San Antonio playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA.

Dewayne Dedmon (C – MIA): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Injury fill-ins have been a major theme in this article, and Dedmon is yet another one of those guys. He’s starting at center in the absence of Bam Adebayo, averaging 30 DK points per game in the three games since Bam went down. That’s pretty much the guy we’ve seen throughout Dedmon’s career, making it hard to believe he remains so cheap, particularly against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.

Advantageous Pricing

• Paul George (SG/SF – LAC): $10,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel (WOW!)
• Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $7,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
• Ish Smith (PG – CHA): $3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
• Dewayne Dedmon (C – MIA): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
• Robert Covington (PF/C – POR): $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
• Malcolm Brogdon (PG – IND): $8,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
• Mo Bamba (C – ORL): $6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
• Myles Turner (C – IND): $5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
• Jarred Vanderbilt (PF – MIN): $5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
• Daniel Gafford (C – WAS): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
• Caris LeVert (SG/SF – IND): $6,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

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