PREMIUM

NBA DFS Primer: Friday (12/31)

To say this fantasy basketball season has been a whirlwind would be an understatement. We’ve seen over 100 players head into the health and safety protocols over the last couple of weeks and it’s totally altered the league’s landscape as a result. Whether you’re playing in season-long or DFS, some extra attention has been certainly been required in order to come out on top, and paying attention to Woj’s Twitter profile has been vital.

Fortunately for us in the DFS world, we’ve had the privilege to tweak our lineups as much as we want and adjust to all of the commotions. Regardless of all the lineup changes, the prizes on FanDuel and DraftKings have remained the same and the opportunity to win is still there each and every night. With that said, let’s take a look at my favorite DFS plays for Friday’s slate, barring more Woj and Shams Charania Tweets!

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Schedule and Odds

HOU vs. MIA (-4.5) O/U: 212.5
LAC @ TOR (-5.5) O/U: 208.5
ATL @ CLE (-1) O/U: 219
OKC vs. NYK (-6.5) O/U: 213
SAS @ MEM (-6.5) O/U: 224
MIN @ UTA (-11) O/U: 221.5
POR @ LAL (-6) O/U: 231

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Schedule and Odds

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable
Karl-Anthony Towns (health protocols) is OUT
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is questionable
Anthony Edwards (conditioning) is questionable
D’Angelo Russell (health protocols) is OUT
Dejounte Murray (health protocols) is OUT
Julius Randle (health protocols) is OUT
Kyle Lowry (health protocols) is questionable
Mike Conley (rest) is OUT
Darius Garland (health protocols) is OUT
Dillon Brooks (health protocols) is OUT
Josh Giddey (health protocols) is OUT
Reggie Jackson (conditioning) is questionable
Jarrett Allen (health protocols) is questionable
Duncan Robinson (health protocols) is OUT

Core Plays

Jimmy Butler (SG/SF – MIA): $10,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Butler is questionable with an ankle injury so paying close attention to his status will be imperative. The good thing is that the Heat/Rockets are the first game to tip-off on Friday’s main slate, so we’ll have time to adjust should he be ruled out. Despite that, Butler has simply been incredible from a fantasy perspective when on the floor this season. He just dropped 25/8/15 with four combined blocks and steals in Tuesday’s win over the Wizards and he should command a massive workload with Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson out of the lineup. The Rockets are also surrendering the second-most DraftKings points to opposing forwards this season.

Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $9,600 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Morant is coming off a 41-point outburst in Wednesday’s win over the Lakers and only to get a dream matchup against the Spurs. Not only is San Antonio giving up the third-most FanDuel and fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing point guards, but this game also has the second-highest O/U on the slate at 224. With no Dejounte Murray due to health and safety protocols and no Dillon Brooks to take shots away, Morant should have his way early and often.

Christian Wood (C/PF – HOU): $8,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Wood has posted at least 20 points in five of his last six games leading into a matchup against the injury-riddled Heat. While Omer Yurtseven has been a nice revelation for Miami, opposing centers have feasted against him over the last several games. This should be a competitive game and Wood should have his way down low. Don’t be shocked to see a massive game from Wood on Friday.

Cash Game Considerations

Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $9,500 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Gobert has scored less than 42 fantasy points only once in his last seven games heading into a matchup against the Timberwolves. With Karl-Anthony Towns stuck in covid protocols, Gobert will be squaring off against veteran Greg Monroe and Nathan Knight for much of the evening. Donovan Mitchell‘s return should also open up more opportunities for Gobert on the offensive end as well, making his floor incredibly safe. He’s better value on FanDuel but he remains a solid play on both sites.

Evan Mobley (PF/C – CLE): $7,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Mobley hasn’t missed a step upon returning from the league’s covid protocols. As a matter of fact, his offensive game has seemingly improved as he’s been given a larger workload with Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland out of the lineup. Allen will most likely miss Friday’s game as well, locking Mobley in for increased work on the second night of a back-to-back. The Hawks have gotten Clint Capela back, but the Hawks have still given up the second-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this season. Regardless, he’s locked into 35+ minutes, making his floor safe.

Alec Burks (SG/SF – NYK): $7,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Not only is this a juicy matchup for Burks, but an argument can be made that he’s the biggest value on Friday’s slate as well. Even though his floor is safe on both sites, his price of $5,200 on FanDuel is quite laughable given the circumstances. For starters, he’s coming off a 34-point game on Wednesday in only 26 minutes, so he’s in rhythm. Julius Randle has now found himself in covid protocols, which will surely open up a lot of usage in New York. While some of that will go to Immanuel Quickley and Kemba Walker, Burks should be plenty busy. Again, he’s a safe play on DraftKings given the role but he’s an absolute steal on FanDuel. Take advantage!

GPP Targets

Immanuel Quickley (PG – NYK): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Much like the aforementioned Alec Burks, Quickley should see a bump in usage without Julius Randle in the lineup. As a matter of fact, he’s seen his usage rate increase by 4% during the time that Derrick Rose and Randle have been off the floor this season. The Thunder have been dreadful against opposing point guards this season, ranking last and second to last on both sites in fantasy points per game. Both Kemba Walker and Quickley should feast, but the latter is priced more attractively.

Tyler Herro (SG/PG – MIA): $7,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Herro has been a revelation off the bench for Miami this season, but his workload has gotten much larger with Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo in and out of the lineup this season. If Butler and Lowry end up missing this game – along with Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent, who have already been ruled out – the Heat will have no choice but to run their entire offense through Herro. There’s a chance that he receives his largest workload of the season against the Rockets, who have been abysmal against opposing guards on both sites this season.

Desmond Bane (SG – MEM): $6,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Bane has a relatively safe floor against the Spurs but also comes with a high ceiling as well. The O/U for this game is currently sitting at 224, which is the second-highest on the slate. Not to mention the Spurs are bottom-10 in points allowed this season, surrendering just under 110 points to opposing teams. Even Ja Morant‘s return hasn’t slowed Bane down, as he’s produced at least 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Dillon Brooks‘ and De’Anthony Melton‘s absence should also open things up a bit more for Bane.

Value Plays

Aaron Wiggins (SG – OKC): $3,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Wiggins is polarizing on Friday, as he’s nearly $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings! He’s averaged 20 points per game over his last three and scored over 33 fantasy points in two of those games. Josh Giddey‘s absence has led to some more playing time and that will be the case once again on Friday. It’s almost impossible to pass him up on DraftKings, but it’s understandable to look elsewhere on FanDuel, as his price has recently become inflated.

Nassir Little (SF/PF – POR): $5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Much like Aaron Wiggings, Little is a value on DraftKings as he’s priced almost $1,000 less than FanDuel. He had a quiet game on Wednesday but averaged 37 fantasy points in his three games prior. The Lakers have been horrible defensively this season and this game has the highest O/U on the slate at 231. I’m plugging Little into most of my lineups on DraftKings but it’s understandable to go with another option on FanDuel.

Jaden McDaniels (SF/PF – MIN): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
I’m solely interested in trotting out McDaniels in my lineups on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary makes him a great value. He’s filled up the stat sheet over the last four games and that’s led to Naz Reid being relegated to the bench as his backup. He should see plenty of minutes once again on Friday and his ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him an awesome play on DraftKings.

Advantageous Pricing