This is it. In most leagues, this is the finals or the second half of a two-week final. Many people will already have their defense prepared this week – either because they have an evergreen defense like Tampa Bay, or because they stashed a team with a good matchup this week. If you do need to pick up a defense, there are some good options with high availability.
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Week 18 Stashes
If you’re in the exclusive club of leagues with a Week 18 playoff, I have suggested stashes. I don’t have full projections (because Vegas lines aren’t available more than a week out in most cases), but here is my current gut ranking for all the teams that look interesting in Week 18:
- Buffalo Bills (vs. NYJ)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs CAR)
- Green Bay Packers (@ DET)
- Tennessee Titans (@ HOU)
- New Orleans Saints (@ ATL)
- Indianapolis Colts (@ JAC)
- New England Patriots (@ MIA)
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs DEN)
- Cleveland Browns (vs CIN)
- Minnesota Vikings (vs CHI)
Week 17 D/ST Rankings and Projections
This week is about as good as it gets for defenses. We have a lot of strong defenses facing bad offenses, so there are a lot of very low team projections to go around. There are a couple of very-low-rostered teams in the top 10, and since it’s the finals, you’re not competing with very many teams on the waiver wire. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | TB | @NYJ | 45.5 | -13 | 16.25 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.10 | 8.02 | 97% |
| 2 | NE | JAC | 41.5 | -15.5 | 13 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.09 | 7.78 | 90% |
| 3 | SF | HOU | 44.5 | -12.5 | 16 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 7.20 | 77% |
| 4 | BUF | ATL | 44.5 | -14.5 | 15 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 7.11 | 91% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 5 | CHI | NYG | 37.5 | -6 | 15.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.94 | 16% |
| 6 | NO | CAR | 38.5 | -6.5 | 16 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.84 | 63% |
| 7 | NYG | @CHI | 37.5 | 6 | 21.75 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.59 | 3% |
| 8 | KC | @CIN | 49.5 | -5.5 | 22 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.08 | 73% |
| 9 | SEA | DET | 42.5 | -6.5 | 18 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.97 | 50% |
| 10 | LAC | DEN | 45 | -5.5 | 19.75 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.84 | 70% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | MIA | @TEN | 41 | 3 | 22 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.77 | 63% |
| 12 | PHI | @WAS | 46 | -4 | 21 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.72 | 71% |
| 13 | CLE | @PIT | 41 | -3 | 19 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.57 | 39% |
| 14 | IND | LV | 45 | -7.5 | 18.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.53 | 55% |
| 15 | DET | @SEA | 42.5 | 6.5 | 24.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.37 | 1% |
| 16 | LAR | @BAL | 46.5 | -3.5 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.07 | 5.35 | 78% |
| 17 | GB | MIN | 47.5 | -6.5 | 20.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.29 | 62% |
| 18 | PIT | CLE | 41 | 3 | 22 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.24 | 40% |
| 19 | BAL | LAR | 46.5 | 3.5 | 25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.24 | 51% |
| 20 | CAR | @NO | 38.5 | 6.5 | 22.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.06 | 5.15 | 22% |
| 21 | DAL | ARI | 51.5 | -5 | 23.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.06 | 93% |
| 22 | TEN | MIA | 41 | -3 | 19 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.03 | 41% |
| 23 | LV | @IND | 45 | 7.5 | 26.25 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 4.81 | 7% |
| 24 | DEN | @LAC | 45 | 5.5 | 25.25 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.59 | 51% |
| 25 | MIN | @GB | 47.5 | 6.5 | 27 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.07 | 4.42 | 29% |
| 26 | WAS | PHI | 46 | 4 | 25 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.07 | 4.32 | 25% |
| 27 | ARI | @DAL | 51.5 | 5 | 28.25 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.90 | 64% |
| 28 | CIN | KC | 49.5 | 5.5 | 27.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.74 | 19% |
| 29 | JAC | @NE | 41.5 | 15.5 | 28.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 3.72 | 5% |
| 30 | ATL | @BUF | 44.5 | 14.5 | 29.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 3.68 | 10% |
| 31 | NYJ | TB | 45.5 | 13 | 29.25 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.41 | 8% |
| 32 | HOU | @SF | 44.5 | 12.5 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.06 | 3.33 | 4% |
Matchups
- TB @ NYJ: Jets QB Zach Wilson had his best game of the season last week, wherein the Jets picked up a win, and Wilson avoided any turnovers. That happened to be against the Jaguars, who have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Buccaneers, by contrast, are among the best, so I expect a performance more like the terrible Jets we know and love.
- NE vs. JAC: The Jaguars are awful – they even lost to the Jets last week. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t take as many sacks as most great-matchup QBs, but an implied point total of 13 is the absolute rock bottom. It might be the lowest we’ve seen all season.
- SF vs. HOU: Houston played way above their level against the Chargers last week, in part because the Chargers were missing some key players on the COVID list, and turned the ball over a lot. That doesn’t put me off of this matchup – we’ve seen the Davis Mills-led Texans be terrible plenty of times this season, and the 49ers have a better defense than the Chargers do.
- BUF vs. ATL: The Falcons’ offense has been bad (but inconsistent) all year, and a projection of 15 points is a new low for them. The Falcons are a good-bordering-on-great matchup, so it’s not hard to start the Bills, who have one of the best defenses in the league.
- CHI vs. NYG: My first tier was populated entirely with good defenses in great matchups, but the Bears are merely an OK defense in a great matchup. Daniel Jones is officially out for the season, so Mike Glennon will continue to start for New York. In the four weeks since Glennon took over, the Giants have averaged less than 12 points a game. This is the kind of team you’ll start anyone against.
- NO vs. CAR: The Cam Newton-led Panthers are on a five-game losing streak in which they’ve averaged only about 14 points per game. With the Saints this week and the Buccaneers next, the Panthers only have strong defenses on their schedule, so I don’t expect to see that streak end.
- NYG @ CHI: I’ve already listed this game once in the context of starting the Bears’ defense, but this is a classic both-offenses-are-horrible game. It’s unclear if Justin Fields, dealing with an ankle injury, will start next week. My projections reflect an assumption that he will. If he doesn’t we’ll see Nick Foles again, which would actually probably be a bad thing for the Giants. The Bears are more likely to win with Foles, but there’s incentive to give the rookie Fields more reps in this lost season if he can play.
- KC @ CIN: The Bengals’ projection of 22 points might seem high, but that’s in the context of a week with lots of very low projections – it’s pretty typical for a 22-point team to be a top-10 opponent. There are several such teams, but the Bengals are the one to land in the top-10 because of Joe Burrow‘s high sack rate, which provides a great floor for Kansas City.
- SEA vs. DET: Lions QB Jared Goff missed last week’s game on the COVID list, but he has been activated and will start this week. The Lions have been pretty terrible under Goff all season, but they did finally have a couple of good games in Weeks 12 and 14 after not eclipsing 20 points since Week 1. The Seattle defense is nothing to write home about, but they’re a viable option against a team as bad as Detroit.
- LAC vs. DEN: Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is still in concussion protocol, but it seems likely that he will be activated this week and start against the Chargers. Drew Lock started in his place the past two weeks, and the Broncos have 26 points (over two games) and losses to Cincinnati and Las Vegas to show for it. The Broncos become an even better matchup if Lock ends up starting again, but it will still be worth starting the Chargers against Bridgewater.
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Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.