Last week, I led this article with the worst called shot ever. I commented that, based on the projected starters as of last Tuesday, it was slated to be the first week of the season where every team started the same QB as they did the prior week. In the following few days, dozens of players and coaches across the league tested positive for COVID, including Baker Mayfield and Taylor Heinicke, which made my claim false.
There’s the reasonable argument to be made that the NFL should follow the NHL’s example and pause the season entirely, but I guess there’s a lot of money in Christmas football. From a fantasy perspective, scoring is way down across the league, which translates into higher – and harder to predict – fantasy point totals for defenses.
If you’re in the playoffs and looking to stash players for weeks 17 and 18, my recommendations haven’t changed much from last week, with the main difference being that I’m including Washington’s opponents. I’m operating under the assumption that most players that land on the COVID list won’t be out for more than a week, so my Week 17 expectations are based on each team’s regular starters.
- For Week 17: San Francisco 49ers (vs. HOU), Los Angeles Chargers (vs. DEN), New England Patriots (vs. JAC), Kansas City Chiefs (vs. CIN), Tennessee Titans (vs. MIA), Buffalo Bills (vs. ATL), Seattle Seahawks (vs. CHI), Philadelphia Eagles (@ WAS)
- For Week 18: Buffalo Bills (vs. NYJ), Indianapolis Colts (@ JAC), Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DEN), Green Bay Packers (@ DET), Cleveland Browns (vs. CIN), Minnesota Vikings (vs. CHI), Seattle Seahawks (vs. DEN), New York Giants (vs. WAS)
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Week 16 D/ST Rankings and Projections
This week is tough. It looks pretty good on paper, with some moderately-rostered team’s in the top tier and a couple of very-low-rostership teams in the top 10. But last week a lot changed between when this article came out and Sunday, so all these projections are less confident than they would normally be. Last week was one of the lowest-scoring weeks (across the league) in recent memory with so many players sidelined, and less scoring is generally a good thing for fantasy defenses. At least we know the Bengals should be ready. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | PHI | NYG | 40.5 | -10 | 15.25 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 7.48 | 49% |
| 2 | SEA | CHI | 43 | -6.5 | 18.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 7.29 | 35% |
| 3 | LAC | @HOU | 46 | -9.5 | 18.25 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.09 | 6.73 | 50% |
| 4 | TB | @CAR | 44 | -11 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 6.60 | 95% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 5 | JAC | @NYJ | 41.5 | 2.5 | 22 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.09 | 6.62 | 6% |
| 6 | DAL | WAS | 47.5 | -10.5 | 18.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 6.11 | 89% |
| 7 | SF | @TEN | 44 | -3.5 | 20.25 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.99 | 83% |
| 8 | NO | MIA | 38.5 | -3 | 17.75 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.95 | 53% |
| 9 | GB | CLE | 44.5 | -7 | 18.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.94 | 70% |
| 10 | ATL | DET | 42.5 | -5.5 | 18.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.89 | 4% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | BAL | @CIN | 44.5 | 2.5 | 23.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.85 | 55% |
| 12 | NYJ | JAC | 41.5 | -2.5 | 19.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.75 | 2% |
| 13 | NE | BUF | 43.5 | -2.5 | 20.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.67 | 91% |
| 14 | KC | PIT | 44 | -8 | 18 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.66 | 60% |
| 15 | CHI | @SEA | 43 | 6.5 | 24.75 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.49 | 15% |
| 16 | MIA | @NO | 38.5 | 3 | 20.75 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.06 | 5.48 | 82% |
| 17 | ARI | IND | 49 | -1 | 24 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.36 | 88% |
| 18 | CIN | BAL | 44.5 | -2.5 | 21 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.07 | 5.36 | 15% |
| 19 | MIN | LAR | 49 | 3 | 26 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.25 | 40% |
| 20 | DEN | @LV | 41.5 | 1.5 | 21.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.02 | 58% |
| 21 | TEN | SF | 44 | 3.5 | 23.75 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.07 | 4.98 | 53% |
| 22 | DET | @ATL | 42.5 | 5.5 | 24 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.96 | 1% |
| 23 | LAR | @MIN | 49 | -3 | 23 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 4.90 | 82% |
| 24 | LV | DEN | 41.5 | -1.5 | 20 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 4.89 | 8% |
| 25 | BUF | @NE | 43.5 | 2.5 | 23 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.81 | 96% |
| 26 | IND | @ARI | 49 | 1 | 25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.74 | 54% |
| 27 | CLE | @GB | 44.5 | 7 | 25.75 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.07 | 4.61 | 50% |
| 28 | NYG | @PHI | 40.5 | 10 | 25.25 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.07 | 4.25 | 3% |
| 29 | PIT | @KC | 44 | 8 | 26 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 4.10 | 42% |
| 30 | HOU | LAC | 46 | 9.5 | 27.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.02 | 7% |
| 31 | CAR | TB | 44 | 11 | 27.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.88 | 26% |
| 32 | WAS | @DAL | 47.5 | 10.5 | 29 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.07 | 3.65 | 26% |
Matchups
- PHI vs NYG: We were expecting Jake Fromm to get his first start last week because Mike Glennon has been so bad, but they actually started Glennon long enough for him to throw three interceptions before putting Fromm in. We don’t have much data on Fromm, but he’s the third-string quarterback on a terrible team. The Eagles are a great start this week.
- SEA vs CHI: The Justin Fields-led Bears were only able to put up 9 points against Minnesota last week. Justin Fields continues to be an excellent quarterback for opposing defenses, thanks to his high sack rate and medium-high turnover rate.
- LAC @ HOU: Houston emergency QB Davis Mills had one of his best games last week (and his first win), wherein the Texans put up 30 points against Jacksonville. The Jags are quite a bit worse than the Chargers, and I’m not really worried about the possibility that Mills does it again this week.
- TB @ CAR: Cam Newton has been back at the helm for the Panthers for five weeks now, and he did something new against Buffalo last week. He took four sacks. Between a little more than a turnover per game, and not a lot of offense beyond his one rushing TD per game, the 2021 iteration of Cam is a good matchup. Like last week’s Bills, the Buccaneers are a very good defense, so I think a similar performance is likely.
- JAC vs NYJ: Last week, the Dolphins were able to score 9 fantasy points – 8th in the league – despite allowing the Jets to score 24 points. This is thanks in large part to Zach Wilson taking six sacks, double my normal threshold for what I consider a “high” sack rate. The Jaguars don’t have a particularly good defense, but the Jets are a bad enough offense that I’m willing to start all but the actual worst defense against them, and the worst defense in the league is also the Jets.
- DAL vs WAS: Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen were both on the COVID list last week, so Garrett Gilbert started for the Football Team. My current assumption is that Heinicke will clear protocol in time for this week’s game against Dallas, but you can’t be certain until it happens. Dallas’s defense is quite good – certainly good enough to start against Heinicke – and the matchup goes from good to great if Gilbert (or Allen) has to start.
- SF @ TEN: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has now had two consecutive four-sack games, which puts his season average at 2.9 per game. There are less dangerous offenses than Tennessee, but a low-ish Vegas projection of 20.25 and the good sack rate makes them an appropriate matchup for the back half of the week’s top ten defenses.
- NO vs MIA: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is on a five-game winning streak despite throwing two picks last week – facing the Jets will do that. In contrast to the Jets, the Saints have a top-five defense, which makes them a viable pick against a middling offense like Miami.
- GB vs CLE: Like the Football Team, the Browns had to start third-string QB Nick Mullens last week, with Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum on the COVID list. Again, I’m assuming Mayfield will clear protocol for this week, but under his leadership the Browns have only had a couple games that were genuinely bad for the opposing fantasy Defense. With one of their lower point projections of the season, I don’t expect the Browns to put up a lot of points in Lambeau this week.
- ATL vs DET: Lions QB Jared Goff, who did play last week, is on the COVID list, though he has a good shot of clearing protocol in time to face the Falcons. The Lions are a good matchup with Goff, and even better if they’re forced to turn to Tim Boyle, who lead the team to 10 points in his one start against Cleveland in Week 10.