Despite the extended schedule, this season feels like it’s gone by quickly. It’s already playoff time in some leagues! Quarterback situations seem pretty stable, making our job as defense streamers easier. With Daniel Jones still sidelined with a neck injury, I think this is the first time every team has started the same QB in back-to-back weeks, at least with the information we have on Tuesday.
With the playoffs starting, it’s actually worth spending a bench spot planning ahead with your defense, especially since there’s less of a need for long-term stashes at other positions because there isn’t a long-term left in redraft leagues. In my mind, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are clearly the best defense to have ROS – they’re a great actual defense, and they have top-tier matchups every week. Aside from that, here are the teams I would consider stashing, roughly in order of preference.
- For Week 16: Los Angeles Chargers (@ HOU), New Orleans Saints (vs. MIA), Baltimore Ravens (@ CIN), Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NYG), Las Vegas Raiders (vs. DEN), Jacksonville Jaguars (@ NYJ)
- For Week 17: San Francisco 49ers (vs. HOU), Los Angeles Chargers (vs. DEN), New England Patriots (vs. JAC), Kansas City Chiefs (vs. CIN), Tennessee Titans (vs. MIA), Buffalo Bills (vs. ATL), Seattle Seahawks (vs. CHI)
- For Week 18: Buffalo Bills (vs. NYJ), Indianapolis Colts (@ JAC), Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DEN), Green Bay Packers (@ DET), Cleveland Browns (vs. CIN), Minnesota Vikings (vs. CHI), Seattle Seahawks (vs. DEN)
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Week 15 D/ST Rankings and Projections
We are finally done with bye weeks, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. This is a decent week for streaming defenses. My only highly-ranked defense with extremely low rostership is Jacksonville if you’re willing to accept the risk of a bad defense against an even worse offense. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | MIA | NYJ | 42.5 | -8.5 | 17 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.10 | 7.86 | 46% |
| 2 | MIN | @CHI | 44 | -3.5 | 20.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.93 | 39% |
| 3 | TB | NO | 46.5 | -10.5 | 18 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.06 | 6.63 | 92% |
| 4 | BUF | CAR | 43.5 | -10.5 | 16.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 6.57 | 89% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 5 | JAC | HOU | 39.5 | -3.5 | 18 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.50 | 2% |
| 6 | DAL | @NYG | 45 | -10.5 | 17.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.43 | 80% |
| 7 | ARI | @DET | 47.5 | -13.5 | 17 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 6.35 | 76% |
| 8 | DEN | CIN | 43.5 | -1.5 | 21 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 6.28 | 88% |
| The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 9 | SF | ATL | 45.5 | -8.5 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 6.17 | 67% |
| 10 | LAR | SEA | 47 | -7 | 20 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 6.14 | 79% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | CLE | LV | 42 | -6.5 | 17.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.83 | 39% |
| 12 | PHI | WAS | 44 | -5 | 19.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.79 | 19% |
| 13 | PIT | TEN | 41.5 | 2 | 21.75 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.77 | 45% |
| 14 | GB | @BAL | 43.5 | -4.5 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.07 | 5.61 | 89% |
| 15 | HOU | @JAC | 39.5 | 3.5 | 21.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.10 | 5.55 | 5% |
| 16 | CIN | @DEN | 43.5 | 1.5 | 22.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.41 | 16% |
| 17 | TEN | @PIT | 41.5 | -2 | 19.75 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.34 | 80% |
| 18 | NE | @IND | 45.5 | 2.5 | 24 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.27 | 88% |
| 19 | IND | NE | 45.5 | -2.5 | 21.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 5.05 | 54% |
| 20 | KC | @LAC | 51.5 | -4 | 23.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.87 | 63% |
| 21 | BAL | GB | 43.5 | 4.5 | 24 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.07 | 4.82 | 66% |
| 22 | SEA | @LAR | 47 | 7 | 27 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 4.79 | 53% |
| 23 | CHI | MIN | 44 | 3.5 | 23.75 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 4.70 | 16% |
| 24 | LV | @CLE | 42 | 6 | 24 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 4.64 | 6% |
| 25 | CAR | @BUF | 43.5 | 10.5 | 27 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 4.43 | 41% |
| 26 | WAS | @PHI | 44 | 5 | 24.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.07 | 4.39 | 26% |
| 27 | ATL | @SF | 45.5 | 8.5 | 27 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 4.18 | 4% |
| 28 | NYG | DAL | 45 | 10.5 | 27.75 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.90 | 3% |
| 29 | NYJ | @MIA | 42.5 | 8.5 | 25.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.67 | 1% |
| 30 | NO | @TB | 46.5 | 10.5 | 28.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.56 | 77% |
| 31 | LAC | KC | 51.5 | 4 | 27.75 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.54 | 70% |
| 32 | DET | ARI | 47.5 | 13.5 | 30.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.08 | 3.52 | 1% |
Matchups
- MIA vs. NYJ: Jets QB Zach Wilson has the highest career per-game in interception rate of any QB starting this week, at 1.22 (11 in 9 games). The only other starter above 1 INT/game is Trevor Lawrence. The Dolphins, currently in a 5-game winning streak, are an above-average offense, ranked 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. This is a great play.
- MIN @ CHI: Last week, the Bears put up 30 points on the Packers. That’s a lot, and ordinarily, that would be a pretty bad day for the opposing fantasy defense. However, thanks to three turnovers and two sacks from Justin Fields, the Packers scored 13 fantasy points, which ranked sixth for the week. Like the Packers, the Vikings are an average defense. The Bears are just that good of a matchup.
- TB @ NO: After a disastrous game in Week 13, Taysom Hill recovered last week in his second week as the Saints’ starter. That doesn’t mean there’s any reason to be scared of him – that good performance was against the worst defense in the league, the Jets. I expect him to struggle again against the Super Bowl-bound Buccaneers, even if another four-interception performance is unlikely.
- BUF vs. CAR: The Panthers are 0-3 since Cam Newton made his not-so-triumphant return to the starting role. He’s not taking many sacks, but he’s had back-to-back two-turnover games, and the team has averaged just 17.3 points per game with Cam under center. The Bills have the best defense in the league. This is an easy choice. The only thing keeping them from being ranked higher is the slightly limited upside due to Cam’s low sack rate.
- JAC vs. HOU: Last week, the Seahawks DST didn’t do that well against Houston in fantasy, despite holding them to 13 points in reality. Despite failing to lead a successful offense, Davis Mills has kept the turnovers under control – he has just one interception and one lost fumble in his past four games. I’m unsure if that’s legit – the last few weeks is a tiny sample size, and he does have eight interceptions in the still-small sample of 9 games this season. I wouldn’t be worried about getting burnt too hard with Jacksonville, but the upside of a multi-INT game might be a longshot.
- DAL @ NYG: Daniel Jones is still out with a neck injury, so Mike Glennon will get his third consecutive game for the Giants. Glennon is not a total disaster – he did have three touchdowns last week, including one on the ground. But he’s definitely still in the category of QBs to target with an excellent DST like Dallas.
- ARI @ DET: After finally getting their first win in Week 13, the Lions returned to form last week, scoring just 10 points against Denver. Jared Goff doesn’t have the highest turnover rate, but he takes sacks at a good clip and leads a mostly dysfunctional offense, so a strong defense like Arizona is an easy start.
- DEN vs. CIN: Joe Burrow takes a ton of sacks. That fact, combined with a moderately low projection of 21 points visiting a solid Denver defense, means this is a decent play with a decent floor, even if there’s a little risk involved.
- SF vs. ATL: Matt Ryan had a good game last week against Carolina, allowing no turnovers or sacks. The fact that that kind of game is still in his range is the reason San Francisco isn’t ranked higher. SF is above average on defense, but so is Carolina. You’re accepting the risk of a game like last week if you play the 49ers, but I think the average expected outcome is still decent.
- LAR vs. SEA: Russell Wilson had a very uncharacteristic no-sack game last week, but it was against the Texans, who suck. The Rams, by contrast, have a pretty good defense. That’s especially true against the run, so they align well with Seattle’s strengths.
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Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.
