It’s crunch time. Most fantasy football leagues will either begin their playoffs or wrap up the schedule’s final week before commencing the postseason. Either way, many managers will embark on a win-or-go-home (or stay home since, let’s face it, this is a game we play to not to leave the house) Week 15 matchup.

You don’t want to get too cute and bench a star who guided you this far because of a suboptimal matchup. However, you shouldn’t be afraid to shake up your roster if it enhances your win probability. Because of injuries and an ongoing global pandemic, the waiver wire is more crowded than usual this late in the season.

Of course, team needs should determine your priorities. If you have Tom Brady, don’t waste time reading up on available quarterbacks unless you’re looking to block your opponent. If you need a healthy running back, now is no time to hold back on FAB bids. And if you’re only playing for pride, I promise not to snitch on the fantasy football police.

Note: Rostered percentages provided via Yahoo leagues.

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Top 5 Waiver Targets of Week 15

Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA): 21% Rostered
For once, everyone should have listened to a head coach.

On Friday, Pete Carroll said Penny should be “a big part” of Seattle’s offense against Houston. He was true to his word, as Penny handled 16 of 25 handoffs to running backs. Unlike Week 14, when he turned 10 rushes into 35 yards, Penny grabbed a stronghold of the starting role by submitting 137 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Carroll confirmed as much after the game.

There’s a chance everyone rushing to the waiver wire is a week too late, as the Seahawks will face a far stiffer Rams defense following their 33-13 rout over the Texans. Penny is more a low-end RB2 or flex play for that tough matchup. However, he can then inflict serious damage in the final two fantasy weeks against the Bears and Lions.

It seems like we’ve waited forever for a Penny breakout, but the 25-year-old is finally situated to plant his mark on fantasy leagues. He’s a clear top-priority add this week.

Taysom Hill (QB – NO): 50% Rostered
Hill would have registered 19.3 fantasy points even if he didn’t throw a single pass in Week 14. After running for 101 yards in his first start of the season, he offered 73 more rushing yards and two scores in a decisive victory over the Jets. He has 383 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in six career starts, and he’ll even pass the football occasionally, too. Having delivered a QB4 finish in each start, Hill’s 50% rostered rate needs to double.

DeVante Parker (WR – MIA): 45% Rostered
A bye week concealed a solid return from Parker, who caught all five targets for 62 yards after missing seven of Miami’s previous eight games. He’s given us glimpses of a productive WR3 when healthy, averaging 64.8 yards on 8.0 targets per game. Parker is well worth starting consideration against a Jets squad that ushers plenty more Dolphins to this column.

K.J. Osborn (WR – MIN): 38% Rostered
As expected, Osborn played a major role in Minnesota’s offense with an ankle injury sidelining Adam Thielen. While he only secured three of nine targets, the second-year wideout turned one into a 62-yard touchdown.

???@KirkCousins8 airs it out to @KJ_Osborn#ProBowlVote

?: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/B9llB8aJ3P

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 10, 2021

Osborn has played 89% of the offense’s snaps over the last two games, leading to 130 yards and two touchdowns on 16 targets. Since the Vikings play Monday night, Thielen’s managers especially want to roster Osborn in case the former is a game-time decision. Osborn is a variable starter for anyone if Thielen sits. Even if Thielen returns, keep Osborn around as a rare WR handcuff who vaults to WR2/3 territory without Thielen or Justin Jefferson.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): 36% Rostered
After spending weeks hyping a Bateman breakout, I had little choice but to throw the white flag after he went catchless — on just one target — in Week 13. The rookie set personal highs in the next game with seven catches and 103 yards. He also came painstakingly close to his first career touchdown.

RASHOD BATEMAN!

Tune in on CBS pic.twitter.com/5fzFcb0BMS

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 12, 2021

Making the performance even more surprising, he enjoyed his best game alongside backup quarterback Tyler Huntley when Lamar Jackson suffered an ankle injury early. Bateman put his elusiveness on full display in Sunday’s nearly miraculous comeback against Cleveland. Better yet, he played 65% of the offense’s snaps a week after logging a lackluster 45% snap rate.

While Bateman may not swing 2021 championships as initially hoped for, especially if Jackson misses more time, he remains an intriguing waiver-wire gambit. The neophyte has immense upside if the Ravens give him regular reps.

Notable Players 36-50% Rostered

Miami Dolphins (D/ST): 48%
Two weeks ago, I said the Dolphins would be back here for their Week 15 matchup against the Jets. Here they are. Before their Week 14 bye, they paid off as a streamer against the Jets’ roommates with three sacks and a pick in a 20-9 victory over the Giants. Only New England’s defense produced more fantasy points from Weeks 9 to 13 than Miami, who averaged nearly two full points more than third-place Kansas City.

Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): 41%
Hooper followed a zero before Cleveland’s bye by securing five of seven targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in a rematch with Baltimore. He’s delivered two touchdowns in his last four games on 22 targets. It may not sound exciting, but it plays as a solid TE streamer given a juicy Week 15 matchup. The Raiders have yielded 64.6 receiving yards per game and nine touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Minnesota Vikings (D/ST): 39%
The NFL’s weirdest team nearly blew a 29-0 lead to the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger on Thursday Night Football. Minnesota nevertheless picked up five sacks, increasing its season tally to 41 with at least two in all 13 games. The Vikings also have at least one interception in eight of the last nine games, so they’re a solid fantasy option despite relinquishing 25.6 points per contest. They should have no trouble holding the Bears under that mark, as the NFL’s second-worst offense has cleared 25 points just twice this season.

Notable Players 10-35% Rostered

Robby Anderson (WR – CAR): 35%
It only took until Week 14 for drafters to get something from Anderson. Granted, they should have dropped him months ago, but he enjoyed what was easiest his best game of the season when catching seven of 12 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. He stayed on the field for all but two of Carolina’s 64 offensive plays against Atlanta. One strong showing won’t put the 2021 bust back in everyone’s good graces, but do you want to risk him getting hot at the perfect time for some other lucky manager?

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA): 33%
Tagovailoa is averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game in his seven full games this season. He hasn’t finished lower than QB18 since returning from a ribs injury in Week 6, and that’s including a Week 10 win over Baltimore he began on the bench.

The second-year quarterback has attempted 36.9 passes in games he played from start to finish. One may think Tagovailoa won’t need to throw as much with Miami hosting the Jets, but the ball might stay in his hands since Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Phillip Lindsay are all currently on the COVID list. Either way, he’ll make his opportunities count against a defense allowing an NFL-worst 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 108.2 quarterback rating. In Week 11, Tagovaila went a supremely efficient 27-of-33 for 273 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in a 24-17 victory over Gang Green.

Gerald Everett (TE – SEA): 31%
Everett is the TE8 since returning from Seattle’s Week 9 bye, outscoring Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schultz. That isn’t a purely arbitrary endpoint, as it coincides with Russell Wilson‘s return from a finger injury. During those games, Everett received five targets inside the 10-yard line, and he converted two into touchdowns. He’s closing in on TE1 territory for managers seeking solace at a desolate position.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB – PIT): 22%
It’s not always pretty, but Roethlisberger has three top-10 QB finishes in the last four weeks. It’s all about volume for the veteran, who averaged 39.0 pass attempts in those contests and 37.9 per game all season. Big Ben could have another bountiful fantasy output against a Titans defense that ranked 26th in passing defense and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks before padding their numbers against the Jaguars.

Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC): 15%
Guyton scored his second deep touchdown in as many weeks, this time securing a gorgeous 59-yard dime from Justin Herbert.

ROCKET ARM HERBERT. #BoltUp

?: #NYGvsLAC on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/mWQkmNFftB

— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2021

Even with Keenan Allen sidelined, Guyton saw just three targets. However, he caught all of them. That gives Guyton seven receptions for 177 yards and two touchdowns on just seven targets in his last two games. It’s typically not wise to bet on someone so big-play dependent, but he’ll remain a high-risk, high-reward WR4/5 if Allen doesn’t clear COVID protocols in time for Thursday night’s showdown against Kansas City.

D’Ernest Johnson (RB – CLE): 13%
Kareem Hunt exited Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and is looking unlikely to play this Saturday. Johnson saw just five touches on 14 touches in Hunt’s place, so Nick Chubb could instead assume a bell-cow role against the Raiders. However, Johnson will at least get some touches, and he remains one of fantasy’s most valuable handcuffs to Chubb.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): 12%
St. Brown has received 12 targets in consecutive games. Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and DeAndre Hopkins are some wide receivers who have at least 12 targets in one or zero games all season. As an encore for Week 13’s career performance, culminating with a last-second touchdown. St. Brown submitted eight receptions for his second-highest yardage tally (73) of the season. The fourth-round pick is looking like a legitimate PPR option.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – CLE): 10%
Peoples-Jones has 373 yards and three touchdowns in a six-game window that includes Week 11 and 12 duds. He went from a popular pickup to a bust, and is now back to a burgeoning breakout after accruing 90 yards against Baltimore. The 22-year-old has played at least 75% of the snaps in each of Cleveland’s last three games since releasing Odell Beckham Jr. A run-heavy offense makes Peoples-Jones a boom-or-bust option, but he has a higher ceiling — particularly against Las Vegas this Saturday — than anyone else around this rostered rate.

Notable Players <10% Rostered

Jordan Howard (RB – PHI): 8%
The Eagles could get Howard back after their bye week, further complicating a messy backfield. Kenneth Gainwell stepped up behind Miles Sanders in Week 12, but Howard and Boston Scott could return to the fold. However, Sanders also injured his ankle in that game two weeks ago. Essentially, the official take on this situation is currently a shrug. Just don’t dismiss Howard, who stockpiled 51 carries for 274 rushing yards in four games. Scott is also worth monitoring/stashing because of Sanders’ uncertain status for Week 15.

Joshua Palmer (WR – LAC): 2%
Palmer might be a preferable add over Guyton, but only if Allen remains inactive. The rookie caught five of a team-high seven targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s 37-21 victory over the Giants. Before Week 14, he hadn’t exceeded 25 yards in a single game. He also only played a majority of the Chargers’ snaps once before seeing the field for 62 of 71 plays in Allen’s absence. Palmer is a safer plug-in-play than Guyton without Allen, but he’d likely fall back to irrelevancy if the star wideout returns.

Justin Jackson (RB – LAC): 2%
Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC): 0%
Austin Ekeler left a blowout win early with an ankle injury. While Chargers coach Brandon Staley expressed optimism after the game, the shortened week could cause complications. Jackson and Kelley split the mop-up work against the G-Men; Jackson played one more snap, but Kelley received one more touch. They’re probably touchdown-dependent flex plays in a backfield tandem even if Ekeler can’t play Thursday night.

Craig Reynolds (RB – DET): 1%
With D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams sidelined, Reynolds played one more snap (29) than Godwin Igwebuike. However, he was far more effective, garnering 83 yards on 11 rushes as well as two catches for 16 yards. Igwebuike, meanwhile, gained 25 yards and lost a fumble on his eight carries. The Lions are “hopeful” they get Swift back, but there’s no reason for a one-win team to rush his return. According to Pro Football Focus, as of Monday, Reynolds was the top-graded running back of Week 14.

Laquon Treadwell (WR – JAC): 1%
Treadwell set a career-high for receiving yards the second straight week, going from 62 to 68. He’s tallied four catches in each of his last three games on 19 targets in place of Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold. Treadwell follows those two as the next Jaguars pass-catcher to leapfrog Laviska Shenault Jr. on the list of fantasy-viable targets. Still, a feeble offense limits his value to deeper leagues.

Duke Johnson Jr. (RB – MIA): 0%
As mentioned earlier, Miami’s entire backfield is in COVID protocols. They’re all reportedly vaccinated, giving them a chance to play Sunday, so monitor this situation carefully for a juicy matchup against the Jets. If none are cleared, Johnson could get promoted from the practice squad to play a significant role against a defense allowing the most fantasy points to running backs.

Royce Freeman (RB – HOU): 0%
Rex Burkhead exited Week 14’s game with a groin injury. The Texans, who traded Lindsay and Mark Ingram earlier this season, placed David Johnson on the COVID-19 reserve list Sunday morning. That left Freeman. Although he took his 11 carries for a putrid 15 yards, he also caught six of eight targets for 51 yards in garbage time. Any running back with so many touches deserves our attention, even if he plays for the Texans. If Burkhead and Johnson are out in Week 15, it’ll be tempting to roll the dice on him against the Jaguars in deeper leagues.

Tyler Huntley (QB – BAL): 0%
He’s not Jackson, but Huntley nearly orchestrated a comeback win on the road when replacing the injured MVP. Huntley went 27-of-38 for 270 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps more importantly for his fantasy appraisal, the 2020 undrafted free agent also ran for 45 yards. Managers in standard leagues should find a better alternative on the waiver wire if Jackson misses Week 15, but Huntley might be the best option for those in two-quarterback or Superflex leagues. The Ravens are planning for Jackson to play this weekend against the Packers.

Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU): 0%
Jordan has scored three touchdowns in six games and saw a season-high seven targets Sunday. He’s also a part-time player with 15 receptions for 113 yards all season, so the rookie is a mere dart-throw TE2.

Braxton Berrios (WR – NYJ): 0%
With Corey Davis and Elijah Moore placed on the IR, Berrios proved an instant benefactor. The former sixth-round pick, who received 18 targets in his previous eight games, caught six of a team-high 10 targets for 52 yards in a blowout loss to New Orleans. This isn’t the first time the former sixth-round pick has helped managers in PPR formats; he caught 12 of 18 targets in the first two weeks without Jamison Crowder.

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