On Sunday, Dominik Eberle made two field goal attempts and all five extra points in Houston’s shocking 41-29 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The former Utah State Aggie filled in admirably for Ka’imi Fairbairn, who missed the contest due to COVID-19.
Eberle joins a shortlist of German-born kickers to play in the NFL, including Fred Steinfort, Uwe von Schamann, Horst Muhlmann, and most recently, Nick Lowery.
With a roster percentage of less than 1%, very few people benefited from Eberle’s strong performance.
Another kicker who has a roster percentage of less than 1% is Matthew Wright of the Jaguars, who scored 11 points to finish as the No.6 kicker of the week. It is not surprising that Wright finished as a top-12 play this week, as he is the latest in a long list of kickers this season who managed to put up solid numbers against the Jets.
New York has given up the most points per game to kickers in 2021. Ten different kickers have scored at least eight fantasy points against Robert Saleh’s team, including three games of 12 or more points.
In a season in which predicting the unpredictable when it comes to COVID-19, at least we have one thing that is nearly foolproof. Start your kicker against the Jets.
This week’s player who gets to feast on the Jets is Ryan Succop of the Jets, who happened to also finish as the K1 in Week 16.
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Week 16 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. LA Rams: 65% roster percentage on Yahoo
Joseph scored 12 points against the Rams on Sunday, which is three weeks in his last four, in which Joseph has topped ten fantasy points. Next week’s game on the road against Green Bay at Lambeau should be a tough task, but he did manage nine points when the teams faced off in Minnesota back in Week 11.
Dustin Hopkins (LAC) @ Houston: 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
For the past three weeks, I have written about Dustin Hopkins and how his playoff schedule looked solid for fantasy managers. With his final five games of the season played indoors, Hopkins looked to be a solid play. His four points against the Chiefs were a disappointment, but he more than made up for it with 13 against the Giants and 12 last week against Houston.
Week 16 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Justin Tucker (BAL) @ Cincinnati: 99% roster percentage on Yahoo
It stinks when the only player rostered in 99% of Yahoo leagues gives fantasy owners just three points in the playoff semi-finals. There are times when game script all but neutralizes the value of a kicker when their team is getting demolished. That proved the be the case with the Bengals and Joe Burrow throwing for over 500 yards.
Week 17 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 13th in red-zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 19. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 17.
Harrison Butker (KC) @ Cincinnati: 71% roster percentage on Yahoo
Butker has given fantasy managers a floor of at least eight fantasy points each week dating back to week 8. Assuming he can come off the COVID list in time to play, Butker should provide a similar floor and a chance at the No.1 position on the week. Why he is ranked 17th on ECR is beyond me.
Michael Badgley (IND) vs. Las Vegas: 27% roster percentage on Yahoo
I know that I am starting to sound like a broken record regarding Badgley, but he continues to play well and continues to be undervalued by the fantasy industry. Badgley has seven or more points in nine of his ten starts for Indy, making him one of the safest plays. His only bad game (five points) came in a shutout of the Texans. I anticipate the Colts will dominate the Raiders, but Badgley should get a few field goal tries.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Michael Badgley (IND) at Arizona: 16% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 21
My Rank: 10
Week 16 Finish: T12
Both of my kickers finished just inside the top-12 this week, including my favorite kicker down the stretch of the season, Michael Badgley of the Colts. Badgley made two field goals and two extra points to finish with a solid nine points on the week. Had he made his 50-yard attempts, he would have given managers a top-3 performance in the fantasy semis.
Tyler Bass (BUF) @ New England: 94% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 17
My Rank: 9
Week 16 Finish: T12
Bass benefitted from a strong game script and an impressive performance by the Bills offense to give fantasy manages nine points on the week. It seemed a little strange to me that fantasy analysts had him ranked well outside the top-12, considering that the Bills and Patriots would play each other relatively close. Perhaps they were still shell-shocked from the crazy wind game back in Buffalo.
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Michael Badgley (IND) vs. Las Vegas: 27% roster percentage on Yahoo
If you are looking for a kicker with a floor of seven, a ceiling of around 14, a positive game script in which he will not be chasing points, and an indoor matchup without weather concerns, Michael Badgley of the Colts is your guy.
Other players to consider:
- Evan McPherson (CIN) vs. KC: 28% roster percentage on Yahoo
- Dustin Hopkins (LAC) vs. Denver: 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
