Last week was one of the most frustrating slates of games for fantasy managers and analysts alike, with COVID 19 causing scheduling changes and elite fantasy options delivering shockingly bad performances in key playoff matchups.
The crazy week also applied to kickers, with only two players rostered in over 70% of Yahoo leagues posting a top-10 performance. Five players with a 70% or higher roster percentage posted six points or less, with Ryan Succop delivering a shocking -1 point performance against the Saints in what should have been an excellent game script.
It wasn’t just Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris, Amari Cooper, and Ja’Marr Chase burning fantasy managers. The terrible fantasy week carried over to kickers as well, kicking many fantasy managers out of the playoffs.
As you head into your semi-final matchup, the weather should be something to consider when choosing your kicker. Two of the best fantasy kickers in the league, Tyler Bass and Nick Folk, project to have rain and cold conditions in Foxboro. Both players are still worth a start and have excellent K Scores, but if you can pivot to a player like Daniel Carlson playing indoors, it might be a smart move.
Another game to watch is Pittsburgh and Kansas City, as Harrison Butker could miss the game after being placed on the COIVD-19 list. The Chiefs added Elliott Fry to the active roster, but it looks like it will be windy at Arrowhead with gusts up to 25 MPH. Not exactly the type of conditions you want to have a player with one made field goal on his resume kick in for your playoff lives.
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Week 15 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Evan McPherson (CIN) @ Denver: 25% roster percentage on Yahoo
McPherson is the next in a long line of kickers to flourish in the thin air of Denver, with 13 fantasy points on a perfect three-for-three day that included two 50-yard kicks. The rookie now has back-to-back games of over ten fantasy points and four of his last five. He is an interesting option this week at home against the Ravens, assuming it is not too windy in Cincinnati.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) @ Jacksonville: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
It is no surprise that the top kicker on the slate would come from the toilet bowl matchup of the Texans and Jags on a week like this. The narrative that the Urban Meyer-less Jags would play with new energy and beat up on the Texans did not hold, with Houston winning a lopsided game in Jacksonville. Fairbairn kicked three field goals, including two 50-yard tries in the victory, while making all three extra points.
Week 13 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Ryan Succop (TB) vs. New Orleans: 80% roster percentage on Yahoo
To get negative points from your kicker in the fantasy playoffs is a gut punch. To get it from the kicker playing on the top offense in the league, in a matchup that should have lent itself to multiple field-goal tries, makes it even worse.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Matt Gay | LAR | at MIN | 49 | -3 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 45 | Dome |
| 2 | 2 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at CIN | 43.5 | 3 | 15 | 26 | 5 | 46 | 47F, 8 MPH Wind |
| 3 | 10 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. DEN | 42 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | Dome |
| 4 | 3 | Greg Zuerlein | DAL | vs. WAS | 47.5 | -10 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 20 | Dome |
| 5 | 5 | Harrison Butker/Elliott Fry | KC | vs. PIT | 46.5 | -9.5 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 22 | 53F, Overcast 15 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 4 | Nick Folk | NE | vs. BUF | 44 | -1 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 40F, Rain 8 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 6 | Matt Prater | ARI | vs. IND | 48.5 | -2.5 | 28 | 24 | 8 | 60 | Dome |
| 8 | 7 | Dustin Hopkins | LAC | at HOU | 47.5 | -10.5 | 21 | 22 | 4 | 47 | Dome |
| 9 | 16 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at NE | 44 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 29 | 40F, Rain 8 MPH Wind |
| 10 | 21 | Michael Badgley | IND | at ARI | 48.5 | 2.5 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 43 | Dome |
| 11 | 8 | Robbie Gould | SF | at TEN | 44.5 | -3 | 8 | 31 | 12 | 51 | 48F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 12 | 9 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. NYG | 42 | -10 | 9 | 23 | 11 | 43 | 45F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 13 | 11 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. LAR | 49 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 8 | 51 | Dome |
| 14 | 30 | Brian Johnson | WAS | at DAL | 47.5 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 20 | 42 | Dome |
| 15 | 12 | Brett Maher | NO | vs. MIA | 39.5 | -3 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 60 | Dome |
| 16 | 15 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. BAL | 43.5 | -3 | 10 | 19 | 15 | 44 | 47F, 8 MPH Wind |
| 17 | 17 | Randy Bullock | TEN | vs. SF | 44.5 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 44 | 48F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 18 | 19 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at NO | 39.5 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 24 | 50 | Dome |
| 19 | 24 | Graham Gano | NYG | at PHI | 42 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 27 | 51 | 45F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 20 | 18 | Mason Crosby | GB | vs. CLE | 45 | -7.5 | 26 | 13 | 14 | 53 | 34F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 21 | 13 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. DET | 44 | -4.5 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 55 | Dome |
| 22 | 28 | Eddy Pineiro | NYJ | vs. JAC | 42.5 | -1.5 | 23 | 10 | 23 | 56 | 47F, 12 MPH Wind |
| 23 | 26 | Riley Patterson | DET | at ATL | 44 | 4.5 | 31 | 2 | 25 | 58 | Dome |
| 24 | 31 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. LAC | 47.5 | 10.5 | 25 | 1 | 32 | 58 | Dome |
| 25 | 23 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at SEA | 44 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 37 | 32F, Snow 6MPH Wind |
| 26 | 29 | Matthew Wright | JAC | at NYJ | 42.5 | 1.5 | 19 | 9 | 31 | 59 | 47F, 12 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 14 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at KC | 46.5 | 9.5 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 60 | 53F, Overcast 15 MPH Wind |
| 28 | 20 | Ryan Succop | TB | at CAR | 48.5 | -14 | 28 | 30 | 2 | 60 | 66F, 10 MPH WInd |
| 29 | 22 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at LV | 42 | -1 | 32 | 11 | 18 | 61 | Dome |
| 30 | 27 | Chase McLaughlin | CLE | at GB | 45 | 7.5 | 30 | 21 | 19 | 70 | 34F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 31 | 25 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. CHI | 44 | -7 | 16 | 28 | 30 | 74 | 32F, Snow 6MPH Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 12th in red-zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 20. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
The basis for kicker rankings are numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 15.
Michael Badgley (IND) at Arizona: 16% roster percentage on Yahoo
Another week of kicker prognosticating and another week with the fantasy football writing community not giving Badgley his due credit. For a guy who continues to deliver a solid floor and the upside of 15 fantasy points, Badgley is someone writers don’t trust. His K Score of 43 is not quite as good as in previous weeks, but 43 is still solid, and he is playing in a high-scoring game with a close over/under. Oh, and I like that he plays indoors in a week where more than a few kickers have terrible weather conditions.
Tyler Bass (BUF) @ New England: 94% roster percentage on Yahoo
Bass’ ECR this week of 16 is a bit odd to me considering the matchup. The Patriots boast the second-best red-zone defense, and the Bills have the 7th best offense in yards per game. The only concern here is the weather, as it could be rainy in Foxboro. Keep an eye on weather conditions here.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Ryan Succop (TB) vs. New Orleans: 79% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 14
My Rank: 12
Week 15 Finish: 32
Tom Brady and the Bucs offense have struggled mightily against the Saints in the regular season since Brady joined the team. With a K Score of 29 and the likelihood that Brady and the offense would struggle scoring touchdowns and would settle for field goals made Succop an attractive option. Instead, Brady lost three of his starting skill position players, and head coach Bruce Arians passed on more than a few field-goal tries, leaving Succop with a terrible day for fantasy managers and myself.
Michael Badgley (IND) vs. New England: 14% roster percentage on Yahoo
Hopefully, most of my readers went with Badgley and not Succop this week, as the former came through with a solid top-10 performance against the Patriots. I wrote about Badgley possessing one of the highest floors this week, and he came through with nine fantasy points.
ECR Rank: 17
My Rank: 10
Week 15 Finish: 8
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Michael Badgley (IND) @ Arizona: 16% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am keeping Badgley as my kicker of the week to add for two reasons. The game projects to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week with a close spread, and it is indoors in a week where weather may have a negative effect on more than a few games. I see Badgley with a floor of around seven points, with a ceiling of 15.
Other players to consider:
Matt Prater (ARZ) vs. Indy: 73% roster percentage on Yahoo
Dustin Hopkins (LAC) @ Houston: 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
