Week 14 proved to be the week of the heavily-rostered kickers, with Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker, and Greg Zuerlein – three players with a roster percentage of over 85%, finishing in the top 5.
If you were one of the managers who chose to use a bit of draft capital on a kicker, this is the week that paid off for you.
Of the eight kickers who are rosters in at least 70% of leagues, only Daniel Carlson of the Las Vegas Raiders failed to score at least nine fantasy points. Carlson was burned by a lopsided game script against the Chiefs while also missing an extra point.
It looked like Tyler Bass was also in line for a dud week, but Josh Allen and the Bills rallied in the second half, and Bass finished with a respectable nine fantasy points.
If you are in the playoffs and are looking for a player who could be a league-winning asset, check your waiver wire and see if Nick Folk is available. Folk is the top fantasy kicker of the season by a wide margin and is available in just over 30% of Yahoo leagues.
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Week 14 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Cairo Santos (CHI) @ Green Bay: 2% roster percentage on Yahoo
Santos now has two double-digit performances in his last three games, including a 14-point showing against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. The problem is he has two games of fewer than three fantasy points in his last four. While it is possible he has another solid game this season, I would not bet my fantasy playoffs on him.
Brett Maher (NO) @ New York Jets: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
Death, taxes, and the Jets giving up fantasy points to opposing kickers. The Jets have given up nine or more fantasy points in eight of their 13 games this season, including 27 in their last two. A combination of a stubborn red zone defense mixed with a subpar offense that does not create negative game scrips make the Jets a great target. This week’s beneficiary is former Dallas kicker Brett Maher, who made three field goals and three extra points to finish with 12 points on the day. Like Santos, I am not recommending picking up and starting Maher for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 14 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Daniel Carlson (LV) @ Kansas City: 83% roster percentage on Yahoo
This game was over before the end of the first half, and Daniel Carlson found himself on the wrong side of a sideways game script. Perhaps stomping on the logo of a far superior opponent isn’t the smartest thing to do, Raiders. Based on Carlson’s remaining schedule, I recommend sticking with him on your playoff run.
Week 15 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 18th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 14. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 15.
Ryan Succop (TB) vs. New Orleans: 79% roster percentage on Yahoo
With just one game of ten or more fantasy points dating back to Week 5, Ryan Succop has not delivered a high ceiling for fantasy owners this season. Although he plays on a high-powered offense, he does not always possess an elite K Score unless the Bucs are playing against a solid red zone defense like the Saints. With a K Score of 29 and a home matchup in what appears to be fine weather conditions (check as we get closer to Sunday), Succop looks like an excellent play and someone who will beat his ECR of 14.
Michael Badgley (IND) vs. New England: 14% roster percentage on Yahoo
It's not often that you can find a widely available kicker in the playoffs who has such a high floor as Badgley. Since taking over the starting job from Rodrigo Blankenship, Badgley has at least seven fantasy points in all but one game. That game came before the break in a lopsided win over the Jags. This game has the makings of a field goal fest between Badgley and Folk. If you can't get Folk, Badgley is the next best thing.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Pittsburgh: 68% roster percentage on Yahoo
I found it a bit strange that the fantasy community had Chris Boswell ranked in the top five this week and not his counterpart in the game, Cairo Santos. The Steelers defense had been playing poorly, and the K Score indicated a big game for Joseph and not Boswell. With 12 fantasy points on the day compared to just one for Boswell, the K Score proved valuable this week.
ECR Rank: 11
My Rank: 3
Week 14 Finish: T5
Chase McLaughlin (CLE) vs. Baltimore: 6% roster percentage on Yahoo
McLaughlin has haunted me this season, as his team provides a K Score that should be excellent for fantasy production, but he continues to miss field goal chances that would make him a fantasy starter. This week, McLaughlin missed a 45 yarder that would have given him 11 points on the week and a top-7 finish. Instead, he left fantasy managers with a pedestrian six points.
ECR Rank: 21
My Rank: 12
Week 14 Finish: 17
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Michael Badgley (IND) vs. New England: 14% roster percentage on Yahoo
Last week my top waiver wire claim, Matt Prater, finished the week as the K1 and hopefully helped many of you make the playoffs. This week's pick is Michael Badgley, who has the top K Score on the Week (23) and should give you between seven and 15 fantasy points. He is kicking indoors, and the matchup looks like it will be close.
Other players to consider:
- Dustin Hopkins (LAC) vs. KC: 32% roster percentage on Yahoo
- Evan McPherson (CIN) @ Denver: 26% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.