As we head into the home stretch of the 2021 Fantasy season, it is important for fantasy managers to review their next four weeks to ensure they have a solid option for the end of the regular season and the playoff run.
If you have an elite kicker like Justin Tucker, Nick Folk, Matt Gay, or Daniel Carlson, you should be good to go (but know that Folk is on bye next week.) If you do not have one of those top options, you should strongly consider mapping out your next four weeks with considerations for weather, matchup, and of course, K Score.
For the remainder of the season, the weather is going to be a huge consideration for owners looking to discern between two possible options. When trying to choose between two closely ranked players, always go with the one playing in a dome. Snow and rain are always a worry, but the biggest threat to kickers are high winds and really cold temperatures.
One player to consider is Dustin Hopkins of the Chargers. Although he did miss an extra point this week and disappointed managers with just one point back in Week 12, Hopkins plays all of his remaining games indoors and is available in 70% of Yahoo leagues.
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Week 13 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Jake Elliott (PHI) @ New York Jets: 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
We have officially reached a point where we need to take Jake Elliott seriously. The veteran kicker posted a week-best 17 points against the Jets and has games of 14 and 19 points in the last four weeks. He is on bye this week, so he should still be on most waiver wires. But if you are looking for a sneaky boost for your team and have room on your bench, add Elliott and play him with confidence against the Football Team Week 15.
Riley Patterson (DET) vs. Minnesota: 0% roster percentage on Yahoo
The 2021 undrafted rookie from Memphis shows up for the first time on our stud performers list with three field goals and two extra points to finish with 13 fantasy points. While it was impressive, the Lions’ offense does not have the variables in place to make them somewhat to target for fantasy kicker points.
Week 13 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Ryan Succop (TB) at Atlanta: 81% roster percentage on Yahoo
Succop posted just five fantasy points on the week in what should have been a game in which he scored closer to 10. He missed an extra point and only had one short field goal. Had he made that PAT, a finish of seven points would have been satisfactory. Instead, a 5-point finish left much to be desired.
Week 14 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 18th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 14. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 14.
Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Pittsburgh: 68% roster percentage on Yahoo
Joseph has a solid K Score of 35 in his matchup at home in a dome against Pittsburgh on a short week. Although he did post a surprising one-point game back in Week 12 against the 49ers, Joseph has been very consistent since Week 5, with just one game of fewer than seven fantasy points. The industry has Chris Boswell ranked much higher, but I'd rather have Greg Joseph in this game.
Chase McLaughlin (CLE) vs. Baltimore: 6% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am a glutton for punishment when it comes to McLaughlin. His K Score indicates he should have a solid game this week at home against Baltimore, but he has burned me more than once this season. I prefer Joseph to McLaughlin by a wide margin, and there were not many options this week based on an overall down week for kicker projections. If you are looking for a streaming option, I would go with Dustin Hopkins or Matt Prater, two guys playing in Domes in matchups that are favorable for kicking.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Harrison Butker (KC) vs. Denver: 72% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 14
My Rank: 10
Week 13 Finish: 4
Last week I wrote about what I was dumbfounded that the fantasy industry ranked Butker outside the top 12 against the Broncos. Butker had a monster K Score of 28, the Chiefs offense has been struggling, and the Chiefs defense has been steadily improving. Oh, and the Broncos boasted a top-10 red zone defense. Everything was in place for a big game, and Butker finished third on the week with 12 points and could have been a top-3 play had he not hooked an extra point.
Graham Gano (NYG) at Miami: 8% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 16
My Rank: 11
Week 13 Finish: 6
This game went exactly how I predicted, with the Dolphins limiting Mike Glennon and the hapless Giants to just three field goals. Had Gano hit on his long 50-yard try, he would have finished as the No.2 kicker on the week behind Jake Elliott of the Eagles. Two top finishes on the week on players ranked outside the top 12 on ECR made this one of my best weeks of the season.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Matt Prater (ARZ) vs. LA Rams: 32% roster percentage on Yahoo
Prater has a nice matchup this week at home against the Rams in what should be a close, high-scoring game. Although he has been erratic at times with five misses and a shanked extra point, Prater could be in line for a double-digit game, making him a nice option for owners of Nick Folk or Jake Elliott.
Other players to consider:
- Dustin Hopkins (LAC) vs. NY Giants: 32% roster percentage on Yahoo
- Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Pittsburgh: 68% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.