Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 16 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Where to even begin this week? Half of the league is on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Three games were postponed last week. It feels unlikely that the NFL is going to postpone more games in Week 16, but who knows at this point. I had to edit my Week 15 GPP Main Slate piece several times after players were ruled out and may have just been better off replacing the entire thing with a shrug emoji.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 16 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Where to even begin this week? Half of the league is on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Three games were postponed last week. It feels unlikely that the NFL is going to postpone more games in Week 16, but who knows at this point. I had to edit my Week 15 GPP Main Slate piece several times after players were ruled out and may have just been better off replacing the entire thing with a shrug emoji.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT - QB) vs. KC, $6,800 (+$200)
We've targeted Big Ben a few different times in our Pricing Exploitation and GPP series this season. He looks old out there, but he has finished as a QB1 in three of his last five games and two of his last three. The Chiefs are dealing with a COVID break but may get some of their players back ahead of game time. As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, they're probably going to score some points, and the Pittsburgh offense is going to have to keep up while facing a beatable Kansas City defense. I'm banking on another QB1 performance from Roethlisberger at a QB2 price.
DraftKings
Justin Fields (CHI - QB) vs. SEA, $5,200 (-$100)
This one makes me nervous, but I'm trusting the model here. He's priced as the QB35 on the DraftKings full slate but has finished as the QB10 overall the last two weeks and is projected as a borderline QB1 again this week. QB35. He isn't even priced as a starting quarterback in the league. Even if you are down on Fields this week, that's a preposterous price. This is definitely a GPP play and not one I would recommend in Cash, but $5,200 is just too good of a price to pass up for a mobile quarterback who has been playing better of late.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Ronald Jones II (TB - RB) vs. CAR, $5,400 (+$500)
With Leonard Fournette dealing with a hamstring injury, Ronald Jones is getting another shot as the top running back in Tampa. Here's where it gets good. He's priced as RB60 on FanDuel, presumably because the early expectation was that Fournette was going to be able to play. Now, the RB60 price is locked in, but the projections move Jones up to RB8 overall on the FanDuel full slate. Oh, and the Bucs will be without Chris Godwin and most likely Mike Evans, meaning there could be more touches to go around for Jones. Giddy up.
DraftKings
James Robinson (JAC - RB) vs. NYJ, $5,900 (+$500)
James Robinson's price on DraftKings this week looks like a typo. Our model has him projected as RB5 overall, but he's priced as RB20. Last week, in his first game without Urban Meyer holding him back, he was RB6 and received 21 touches. The Jets have one of the worst defenses in football, and Robinson should once again receive 20+ touches. 20+ touches at RB20 prices is, as Bart Simpson would say, ain't not bad.
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Tee Higgins (CIN - WR) vs. BAL, $6,500 (-$300)
Tee Higgins was shut down by a tough Denver defense last week, and his WR29 price tag on the FanDuel full slate reflects that. But he was WR4 and WR3 overall in Week 12 and 13, respectively, and our model has him projected for WR1 numbers against a Baltimore defense that struggles against opposing wideouts. The production has been inconsistent this season, but this is an ideal low price/high ceiling combination to target.
DraftKings
Antonio Brown (TB - WR) vs. CAR, $4,900 (+$500)
With Chris Godwin out and Mike Evans likely about, Antonio Brown is returning at just the right time for Tom Brady and the Bucs, who were shut out last week in an upset loss to the New Orleans Saints. They aren't going to get shut out again, and Brown received 32 targets over his three games before missing time with an ankle injury and a suspension for a fake vaccination card. He may be a bit of a wild card on a personal level, but he and Brady have proven to have excellent chemistry on the football field. Brown is priced as WR49 on the DraftKings full slate but is projected for borderline WR1 production.
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Zach Ertz (ARI - TE) vs. IND, $5,800 (+$500)
We picked Zach Ertz last week in this spot, and we're going right back to the well. The Cardinals and Kyler Murray struggled in a bizarre loss to the Lions, but Ertz caught six of his 11 targets for 74 yards. His 11 targets were his most in any game this season with either the Eagles or the Cardinals, and his six receptions were his most since Week 11 against the Seahawks. With DeAndre Hopkins out, the Cardinals may lean on the veteran tight end more in the passing game. He's priced as the TE13 on the FanDuel full slate this week.
DraftKings
C.J. Uzomah (CIN - TE) vs. BAL, $3,000 (-$100)
The last time the Bengals played the Ravens, Uzomah caught three passes for 91 yards and two touchdowns and finished as the TE1 overall for the week. He has been in a bit of a slump over the last month or so but did finish as TE13 two weeks ago, and a divisional rematch with the Ravens could be just what he needs to finish as a TE1 again. And with a TE28 price tag on the DraftKings full slate, he's a cheap lineup builder at the tight end position.
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.