Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 13 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Taysom Hill (NO - QB) vs. DAL, $7,000 ($0)
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 13 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Taysom Hill (NO - QB) vs. DAL, $7,000 ($0)
The Saints and Cowboys are both playing on Thursday night for the second consecutive week, so neither is actually on a short week. Taysom Hill is making his first start of the season, and while he comes with some risk, he has excellent upside because of his running ability. As the QB21 in terms of price on FanDuel this week, Hill is an ideal GPP option who I have projected for backend QB1 numbers.
DraftKings
Derek Carr (LV - QB) vs. WAS, $6,000 (+$100)
The Washington Football Team, while they have been playing better of late, has allowed a ton of points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Derek Carr completed 24 of his 39 pass attempts for 373 yards in Week 12 against the Cowboys. Carr has finished as a QB1 in more than half of his games this season, and I'm banking on QB1 production again in this one despite his QB14 overall price tag on DraftKings.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Jamaal Williams (DET - RB) vs. MIN, $6,500 (+$1,300)
D'Andre Swift hasn't yet been officially ruled out for Week 13, but there are already reports that he could miss multiple games. That uncertainty, especially earlier in the week, is why Jamaal Williams is the 21st most expensive running back on FanDuel. With Swift out, Williams enters the RB1 conversation in a Week 13 matchup against the Vikings. He received 20 touches in Week 12 and should be in line for a similar workload in Week 13.
DraftKings
Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB) vs. SEA, $6,200 (-$400)
Elijah Mitchell received 27 carries and five receptions in Week 12 and finished as the RB4 overall, but he's priced as the RB18 against the Seahawks in Week 13. I have him projected for another Top 5 finish among running backs, so this appears to be a significant discount on DraftKings.
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle (MIA - WR) vs. NYG, $6,900 (+$200)
The Jaylen Waddle connection with Tua Tagovailoa is real. We talked about Waddle last week, too. He has received at least nine targets in four of his last five games, and he finished as the WR2 overall last week. Still, he's priced as WR21 on FanDuel this week against the Giants. The Giants' defense played well against the Eagles last week, but that seemed to have more to do with incompetence on the side of the Eagles than anything the Giants were doing. Either way, Waddle, who has scored touchdowns in consecutive weeks, should see a steady stream of targets this week.
DraftKings
Hunter Renfrow (LV - WR) vs. WAS, $5,800 (+$200)
Hunter Renfrow is fresh off of an eight-catch, 134-yard performance against the Cowboys. He has received at least eight targets in six of his last eight games and finished as the WR9 overall in Week 12. Despite that performance, his price only went up by $200 on DraftKings. He isn't going to put up 134 yards receiving every week, but he is trending in the right direction in this Las Vegas offense.
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth (PIT - TE) vs. BAL, $5,400 (+$100)
Since Pittsburgh's Week 7 bye week, Pat Freiermuth has finished as a TE1 in four of his five games while scoring five touchdowns. He is recovering from a concussion but was already a full participant in practice on Wednesday, which is a great sign for his availability. He's priced as the TE16 on FanDuel this week but should once again put up TE1 numbers against the Ravens at home.
DraftKings
George Kittle (SF - TE) vs. SEA, $5,900 (-$500)
The TE4 in terms of price isn't often the focus of a price exploitation, but it can be when the TE1 overall is going for $1,400 more. George Kittle caught just one of his two targets for 13 yards last week, but he was coming off of three TE1 performances and a touchdown in three consecutive games. He should bounce back with a decent matchup against the Seahawks on the road.
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.