Week 12 Sunday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Browns at Ravens)

The Browns and Ravens clash in an AFC North showdown to close Sunday’s action. The Browns are fighting for the division crown. Meanwhile, the Browns are fighting for their playoff lives. Below, I analyze the prominent fantasy options on both squads, providing insight into which players I’m most interested in using on this single-game slate.

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Game: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: BAL -3.5 Points

Over/Under: 47.0 Points

Browns Analysis: The Browns have been struggling mightily on offense, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of their last six games. It starts at the top with banged-up Baker Mayfield. Nevertheless, he's included in the table because a starting quarterback is always a viable option on a single-game slate. Still, I'm fading him. Spoiler alert, I'll discuss precisely why I'm fading him when touting Baltimore's defense below.

If the Browns are going to succeed in this game, it's likely going to be the result of riding stud Nick Chubb and the returning Kareem Hunt. According to Pro Football Focus, among 55 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Chubb is first with 4.40 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A), and Hunt is sixth with 3.54 YCO/A. Further, Chubb is second in missed tackles forced rushing (41) and 10-plus yard rushes (29), despite playing only eight games. Chubb runs all over defenses for 106.4 yards per game and an NFL-high 6.0 yards per rush attempt. Unfortunately, his season-highs as a receiver are two targets, two receptions, and 26 receiving yards. Moreover, he's fallen short of 20 receiving yards in seven of eight games played, illustrating some game-script risk to using him, namely with Hunt back in the fold.

Meanwhile, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Hunt has averaged 3.3 receptions and 26.8 receiving yards per game. And, according to Pro Football Focus, in Week 1 through Week 5, when Cleveland's top two backs were healthy, Chubb ran 63 routes to Hunt's 70, and the latter led the team in targets (20) and receptions (17), and second in receiving yards (149). I'm intrigued by both backs. However, Hunt is less game-script-dependent, and my favorite roster on DraftKings relies on the discount spinning down from Chubb to Hunt. It's a closer call between the two on FanDuel, where I can afford either back, and the half-point PPR scoring makes Hunt a smidge less valuable.

I'm not crazy about Cleveland's passing attack because of concerns regarding how Mayfield will handle Baltimore's defense. Nonetheless, since I expect them to be in a negative game script a reasonable amount of this game, I'll be exposed to some pass-catchers. Jarvis Landry is Cleveland's top receiver. Unfortunately, he's not a big-play threat with an average depth of target of only 7.9 yards downfield. He's caught three or more passes in the six games he was healthy enough to play from start to finish. However, he's finished under 40 receiving yards in four of those games. As a result, I'm content fading him.

The tight ends, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and to a much lower extent Harrison Bryant, are my favorite options in the passing attack. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Baltimore allows the fourth-most DraftKings points per game and fifth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends in 2021. In Cleveland's previous three games, Bryant ran 36 routes, Njoku ran 51, and Hooper ran 53. Hooper has been the most productive of the bunch. Nevertheless, Njoku has flashed a higher ceiling. Njoku is also cheaper, so I slightly lean in his direction.

Finally, Donovan Peoples-Jones has participated in practice this week, attempting to return from injury.

If he's back, his field-stretching is a good fit against Baltimore's defense. DPJ has an average depth of target of 17.0 yards downfield. Meanwhile, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Ravens allow the second-highest average explosive pass rate (12%). If Peoples-Jones is out, Rashard Higgins is the next-man-up as a field-stretching ancillary receiver, making him worthy of consideration.

Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson was out last week with a non-COVID illness. He's back this week, and I expect him to torment his division rival. The dual-threat quarterback is 10th in passing yards per game (271.9) and seventh in rushing yards per game (71.0). In addition, he's not a stranger to putting the ball in the end zone, passing for 14 scores, and rushing for a pair. Thus, the do-it-all offensive weapon is the top player on this single-game slate. And, thanks to a handful of reasonably priced options, it's easy to pay his increased freight to use as the captain on DraftKings.

Baltimore's top pass-catcher, Marquise Brown, is listed as questionable after limited practice showings all week following missing last week's game with a thigh injury. I'm a bit worried about his thigh hampering his production if he suits up. Still, he's breaking out in his third season, averaging 5.8 receptions and 79.9 receiving yards per game, and scoring six touchdowns. Thus, I don't begrudge anyone for using the big-play wideout this week.

Instead, I prefer double-dip with Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. Andrews averages 5.6 receptions and 69.6 receiving yards per game, scoring four touchdowns. Bateman made his NFL debut in Week 6, and he has six or more targets in all five games he's played. In Week 6 through Week 10 (excluding his game last week when Jackson was out), Bateman was third on the team in routes (132) and targets (27) and second in receiving yards (241).

If Hollywood is out this week, Sammy Watkins and Devin Duvernay are defensible options. In the last two weeks, Duvernay has run 54 routes to 51 routes for Watkins. In Week 10, when Hollywood played, Duvernay ran 30 routes to only 16 for Watkins. So, there's a chance Duvernay will play ahead of Watkins in three-receiver sets if Brown plays. Nonetheless, that's a moot point for me since I'm fading both if Brown is active.

The other player on the offense meriting consideration is running back Devonta Freeman. The Ravens are favored, so the game script should be favorable if Baltimore handles their business. The veteran running back has climbed to the top of the backfield, playing precisely 58% of the Ravens' offensive snaps in three games since their Week 8 bye. Unfortunately, Jackson is a threat to steal goal-line work, doesn't use his backs often in the passing attack, and Baltimore's line is below-average run blocking. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are 27th in Adjusted Line Yards. I understand the case for using him. Still, I'm fading him.

Finally, I believe for the first time this year, I include a kicker and defense from the same team for consideration. It's not hard to envision this game getting away from the run-first Browns. Justin Tucker might be a better option than spending a premium for any of Cleveland's offensive weapons if that's the case. Further, I expect the Ravens' defense to cause fits for Mayfield.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Ravens blitz at the third-highest rate (34.3%), generating pressure at the fourth-highest rate (28.0%). Meanwhile, Mayfield is sack-prone, taking them at the fourth-highest rate (8.9%). Mayfield is also putting the ball in harm's way against the blitz. According to Pro Football Focus, among 33 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks against the blitz this year, Mayfield's 4.2% turnover-worthy-play rate (TWP%) is the eighth-highest mark. As a result, this is a nightmare matchup for Mayfield and one that could yield plentiful fantasy points for Baltimore's DST.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.