Week 11 Sunday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Steelers at Chargers)

This week’s Sunday Night Football game pits a pair of AFC playoff contenders seemingly headed in opposite directions against one another. Sure, the Steelers tied the Lions last week. However, they haven’t lost since Week 4. Meanwhile, since winning four of their first five games, the Chargers have lost three of their last four games. Nevertheless, they’re at home and favored in this contest. I expect a competitive affair between these clubs. So, my single-game contest rosters will feature a mix of players from both teams. Below, I discuss the players worth using while parsing through who I’m most intrigued by.

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Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

• Spread: LAC -5.5 Points
• Over/Under: 47.5 Points

Steelers Analysis: Ben Roethlisberger is back from a one-game absence on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Unfortunately, he returns to a challenging matchup. The Chargers are seventh in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. Additionally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chargers allow the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (206.0). I don't believe Roethlisberger is the caliber of quarterback that can give them problems. In his age-39 season, Big Ben has passed for more than 275 yards only two times, matching the number of times he's thrown multiple passing touchdowns in a game. Yes, obviously, you can use him on a single-game slate. Nonetheless, I don't believe he is a must-use player.

However, I do view Najee Harris as a lineup-lock option. The Chargers are a run-funnel defense, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA. As a result, they're coughing up the fifth-most DraftKings and fourth-most FanDuel points per game to the position. The workhorse rookie running back is a great bet to pile up points in this matchup. According to our snap counts page, Harris plays the highest percentage of snaps (86%) among running backs. He's rewarding the Steelers for leaning heavily on him with 71.8 rushing yards, 4.9 receptions per game, 35.2 receiving yards per game, and six touchdowns.

In the passing attack, Diontae Johnson is the only Steeler I have a fraction of confidence in. According to Sports Info Solutions, Johnson is 16th in target share (24.4%). He has double-digit targets in six of eight games this season. Johnson's top-dog billing in Pittsburgh's passing attack has resulted in 6.5 receptions and 76.6 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns.

Just because Johnson is the only pass-catcher on the Steelers I have confidence in, it doesn't mean he's the only one I will use on rosters. Chase Claypool is returning from a one-game absence with a toe injury. In his previous three healthy games, he was second on the team in routes (95), and third in targets (16), and receiving yards (92), per Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately, those aren't eye-catching stats, and he's failed to clear 50 receiving yards in four of seven games. Nevertheless, he has the talent to win in a tough matchup, and his 5-130-1 showing in Week 5 illustrates his upside. Still, I'm not crazy about using him.

Instead, I like Pat Freiermuth and Ray-Ray McCloud -- salaries considered -- more. James Washington is absent from the table above because he's a poor-matchup fit with an average depth of target of 11.4 yards downfield. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Chargers are surrendering the seventh-lowest average explosive pass rate (eight percent). The rookie tight end has been thriving as a reliable safety valve in Pittsburgh's offense lately. In his last four games, he's been targeted 29 times, resulting in 21 receptions, 176 yards, and three touchdowns.

Meanwhile, McCloud came out of nowhere to haul in nine receptions for 63 yards on 12 targets last week. It's an outlier performance, no doubt. However, I can envision him stealing some of Washington's snaps as a player who the team will get the ball in the hands of close to the line of scrimmage (6.4-yard aDot) since the Chargers take away deep passes. He also provides a longshot out for fantasy value as a returner, though he's never taken a return to the house in his career.

Chargers Analysis: Justin Herbert can best be described as a boom-or-bust quarterback in his sophomore campaign. He's failed to clear 225 passing yards in four games, salvaging one of those contests with three passing scores. In addition, Herbert has been unable to throw multiple touchdowns in four games, somewhat avoiding a total dud in one of those games by spinning it for 338 yards. However, Herbert has also posted 281 yards and four touchdowns, 398 yards and four passing scores with 29 yards and one rushing touchdown, and 356 yards two touchdowns and 14 yards and one score on the ground in three games this year. This week might tilt toward the boom direction with the Steelers' defense missing T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Meanwhile, in the backfield, it's the Austin Ekeler show. He's handling 66% of the team's offensive snaps, setting new highs on the ground with 12.4 rush attempts and 58.1 rushing yards per game, five rushing scores. Further, he's still maintaining an integral place in the pass-catching hierarchy, hauling in 4.3 receptions and 37.8 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns and ranking fifth on the club in routes (219). Because Ekeler can do damage on the ground and generate correlated production with Herbert through the air, he's my favorite skill-position player on the Chargers in this game.

As for the pass-catchers, Keenan Allen has climbed to his usual perch atop the pecking order. He's first on the Chargers in targets (93), receptions per game (7.2), receiving yards per game (77.6), and routes (358). Allen's also a model of consistency, recording at least 75 yards or a touchdown in all but two games this year.

Unfortunately, Mike Williams is reverting to a boom-or-bust pick after coming out of the blocks hot. He hasn't cleared 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in four straight games. Through his first five games, he recorded at least 82 yards and a touchdown in four games. Fortunately, there are reasons for optimism for a rebound. He tied Allen for the most routes (36) on the team last week. In addition, since his aDot surged in Week 4 through Week 6, it has been 14.0 yards, 13.4 yards, and 1.6 yards in his most recent three games. Hopefully, Williams can find a happy balance between attacking teams deep and soaking up higher-percentage targets at shallower target depth. If nothing else, it looks like offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi isn't pigeonholing Williams as only a deep threat and is making an effort to get him involved again like when the offense thrived earlier this season.

Jared Cook is third on the Chargers in routes (255). He's an adequate option. However, Cook has bested 30 yards in only one of his five games. I'm comfortable fading him, but he's reasonably priced if you have the salary available to use him.

However, I find myself needing to go a little lower to use my favorite combination of top-flight players in this game. Thus, I'm eyeing Donald Parham Jr. and Joshua Palmer. The former is a red-zone weapon. According to our red zone stats, he's tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard line with a pair, ranking third with four targets.

Finally, Palmer is a rookie who has failed to turn heads to date. Yet, he's garnering looks in his limited role. He has been targeted seven times on 35 routes in the last three games, hauling in six receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown. Jalen Guyton is the king of running routes without receiving targets. Last week, Palmer's 13 routes were only two fewer than Guyton's 15. I believe it's only a matter of time before Palmer passes Guyton on the depth chart, and a single-game contest is the place to put a chip down on that happening sooner rather than later.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.