It’s the week before Thanksgiving, and we’re treated to a dozen games on the Week 11 main slate. Below, I analyze each game, providing the players I’m honed in on using on daily fantasy rosters.
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Week 11 Matchups
Game: Houston Texans at Tennesee Titans
Texans Analysis: The Texans have an ugly implied total of 17.25 points. However, Brandin Cooks is a great daily fantasy selection in a cushy matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Titans allow the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Cook is also a target hog with the requisite role to overcome his offense's deficiencies and feast in this matchup. This year, Cook has a 26.4% target share on Tyrod Taylor's 87 pass attempts, hauling in 15 receptions for 227 yards.
Speaking of Taylor, I won't use him on FanDuel. However, he's a sneaky pivot off Cam Newton as a low-salary quarterback with rushing upside on DraftKings. Finally, Nico Collins and Danny Amendola are moderately interesting, near-minimum salary options on DraftKings. Collins is a rookie with a vertical presence in the passing attack. Meanwhile, Amendola is second on the Texans in targets (13), receptions (nine), and receiving yards (93) on Taylor's passes this year. The veteran slot's ceiling isn't exciting, but he's capable of soaking up enough short catches to deliver at only $100 above the minimum salary on DraftKings.
Titans Analysis: A.J. Brown is the remaining healthy superstar on the Titans. Unfortunately, he's hauled in only six receptions for 58 yards in the previous two games. Nonetheless, Brown's 15 targets in those contests are encouraging for his outlook. Further, you only have to go back to Week 6 through Week 8 to see his immense upside. In that three-game stretch, he reeled in 25 receptions on 29 targets for 379 receiving yards. I expect him to rebound to elite form against in a mid-tier matchup. In addition, our optimizer is expecting him to play well. Our optimizer projects him to be the WR4 in scoring at DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has the highest value score among receivers at the latter.
Marcus Johnson is a good bet to run as Tennessee's No.2 receiver in the absence of Julio Jones. Last week, he reeled in five receptions on six targets for 100 yards. Further, in three games without Jones this year, Johnson is second on the Titans in routes (65), per Pro Football Focus, targets (14), receptions (nine), and receiving yards (160). Therefore, I'm digging him as a value option, especially at DraftKings.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Colts Analysis: The Colts are underdogs, so there's a chance that Nyheim Hines could cut into Jonathan Taylor's playing time. However, that's not a guarantee, as Taylor has run 70 routes to only 42 routes for Hines in the previous three games. Unfortunately, the matchup is brutal for Taylor this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are third in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Still, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Taylor is third in rushing yards per game (93.7). The stud runner is also adding 2.9 receptions and 30.3 receiving yards per game. As a result, we project him as RB3 this week. Since other gamers are aware this is a nightmare matchup, using Taylor is a high-upside GPP move, potentially getting a blow-up on a reduced percentage of rosters.
Bills Analysis: Josh Allen bounced back from a nightmarish outing in Week 9 against the Jaguars to trounce Gang Green in Week 10. He's passing for 289.1 yards per game, adding 19 passing touchdowns, 35.8 rushing yards per game, and three rushing touchdowns to create a tantalizing combination of passing and running production. Allen runs a pass-heavy offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points (which I will refer to as a neutral game script or neutral scoring margin from now on), the Bills pass at the highest rate (68%). Buffalo's passing tendencies dovetail perfectly with the Colts' defensive shortcomings. Indianapolis is second in rush defense DVOA, but they're 23rd in pass defense DVOA. In addition, they have the fifth-lowest quarterback pressure rate (19.3%), per Pro-Football-Reference. Allen is projected as QB2 in Week 11 in our optimizer.
Stefon Diggs is also popping in our optimizer, projecting as WR3 at both daily fantasy providers for this week. Diggs is in an excellent spot for an encore of his explosive Week 10 outing (8-162-1 on 13 targets). If it's not broken, why would the Bills fix it?
This is also a prime rebound spot for Emmanuel Sanders on the heels of a clunker, his second in the last three games. According to Sports Info Solutions, Sanders is 15th in Intended Air Yards (905). He is averaging 3.3 receptions and 56.1 receiving yards per game with four touchdown receptions. I expect Sanders to exceed his per-game averages in a cushy matchup.
Dawson Knox was a disappointment in the box score in his return to the field last week. He hauled in his only target for just 17 scoreless yards. However, Knox passes the sniff test from an underlying numbers perspective. In Week 10, he was third on the team in routes (23). The blossoming tight end is also a red-zone monster. According to our red zone stats, Knox is tied for second on the team in targets inside the 10-yard line (four) and tied for first for touchdown receptions (two) in that area of the field.
Finally, the Bills are home favorites and underpriced, given their dominance this year. Buffalo is first in yards per play allowed (4.6 Y/P) and turnovers (24). As a result, they are the projected DST2 with a top-five value score at both daily fantasy providers.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Saints Analysis: Alvin Kamara is trending in the wrong direction, getting downgraded to a non-participant in Thursday's practice after limited participation on Wednesday. Thus, I'm operating under the assumption he'll be out this week. Further, if he suits up, I won't use him for fear of aggravating his knee injury during the game.
Instead, I'm highlighting Mark Ingram II in anticipation of another workhorse game in a mouthwatering matchup. Ingram handled 14 carries and four receptions on seven targets for 108 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in Week 10. He was also third on the Saints in routes (24). Ingram should smash against Philadelphia's defense that's yielded the seventh-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs this year if Kamara is inactive.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles have gotten their running game rolling lately. However, they face the Saints' stout run defense (first in rush defense DVOA), and their backfield is about to potentially become a full-blown running-back-by-committee situation. I'm fading the backfield. I'm also fading DeVonta Smith with Marshon Lattimore present to shadow him if the Saints feel inclined.
Dallas Goedert is in the NFL's concussion protocol but progressed to limited practice participation on Thursday. He is on my radar this week if he clears the NFL's concussion protocol. In three full games since the Eagles traded Zach Ertz, he's caught 12 passes for 185 yards on 18 targets. So, if the Eagles take to the air more often this week to avoid New Orleans' stingy run defense, Goedert is my favorite pick to do damage.
Finally, the Eagles are home favorites against an offense led by a backup quarterback and likely missing their best offensive player. There's a good reason the Saints have an implied total of only 20.5 points. Thus, Philadelphia is a usable value defense, namely at FanDuel.
Game: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Spread: MIA -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa is carving up bad defenses this year -- albeit on a small sample because of injuries. In Week 6 and Week 7, he shredded the Jaguars and Falcons for 620 passing yards, six touchdown passes, and 51 rushing yards. The Jets are in the basement in pass defense DVOA, so this is Tagovailoa's easiest matchup to date. Thus, I expect him to ball out. He's a fine selection on FanDuel, but he has the third-highest value score at quarterback on DraftKings in our optimizer.
The following table illustrates the production for Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki on Tua's 170 pass attempts this year.
Waddle is excelling with his former Alabama teammate under center for the 'Phins. Meanwhile, Gesicki is playing quite well, too, despite failing to corral any of his seven targets last week. Perhaps gamers will be shy about going back to the well after he stunk up the joint last week, which would add to the appeal of using him in GPPs. Circling back to Waddle, he is projected for the second-highest value score among receivers at DraftKings this week.
Finally, the defense is dialed in. In Miami's previous two games, they have allowed only 576 yards of offense, forced six turnovers, and recorded nine sacks. Now, they are facing washed-up statue quarterback Joe Flacco after dominating a pair of mobile signal-callers. So, I expect them to dominate the hapless Jets. We project them to tie for the DST3 spot in Week 11.
Jets Analysis: I mentioned it above, but Flacco is starting this week. Without checkd0wn-machine Mike White leading the offense, I'm out on Michael Carter. When I expected Zach Wilson to be named the starter, I anticipated touting Corey Davis as a usable option. However, I have no idea who Flacco has a rapport with among Gang Green's crowded receiving room. Yes, there is value in successfully speculating on ambiguous situations. However, it makes sense to roll the dice on high-powered offenses, not speculate on a team with an implied total of only 20.5. Therefore, I'm wholesale fading the Jets.
Game: Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers
Spread: CAR -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Football Team Analysis: The Football Team sprung an upset against the defending Super Bowl champions last week. They were able to force feed Antonio Gibson 24 carries and two receptions for 78 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. If the Football Team is going to spring another upset against an NFC South team, the second-year back is likely to have a hand in doing so. The Panthers are elite defending the pass, ranking second in pass defense DVOA. However, they are below-average defending the run, ranking 19th in rush defense DVOA. I don't love Gibson, but he's an intriguing middle-tier running back in GPP for gamers that spend up at other positions.
Panthers Analysis: Might the Panthers have found the right way to use Christian McCaffrey as a workhorse? According to our snap counts, he played only 49% of Carolina's offensive snaps in Week 9 and 59% in Week 10. However, he touched the ball 18 times for 106 yards, followed by 23 touches (10 receptions) for 161 yards in those two games. I view CMC's usage as a positive since they aren't wasting snaps on him when he isn't touching the ball, potentially keeping him fresher and healthier as a result. As a result, he is projected as the RB1 this week. However, CMC is a more attractive option on DraftKings' full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform, evidenced by sporting the sixth-highest value score among running backs and projecting to be the sixth-highest scorer at all positions on DraftKings this week.
Cam Newton isn't announced as the starting quarterback yet, but he's "trending" toward starting. Last week, he made a splash in a change-of-pace role, throwing for a touchdown and rushing for a touchdown. The dual-threat has a high ceiling thanks to his rushing ability and goal-line prowess, and he has the highest value score among quarterbacks on DraftKings this week. He is likely to be a popular option on DraftKings, but I like him there as well.
The quarterback change might be just what D.J. Moore needs to return to his early-season form. Quarterbacking incompetence is the only thing holding Moore back, as his usage is dreamy. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is fifth in target share (27.8%), tied for 10th in Intended Air Yards (991), and 13th in Yards After the Catch (273). Moore is capable of winning vertically or racking up yardage after the catch. As long as he maintains his prominent role as the top dog in the passing attack, even average play from Newton as a passer would be enough to unlock Moore's immense upside against a Washington defense that is 29th in pass defense DVOA and yielding the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Using Newton, CMC, and Moore as a three-person stack is enticing.
Meanwhile, Carolina's defense is my favorite sub-$3,000 pick on DraftKings and a stellar selection on FanDuel, too. They are tied for 14th in turnovers forced (12). However, they're elite at generating quarterback pressure, doing so at the third-highest rate (27.8%). Meanwhile, according to Pro Football Focus, Taylor Heinicke has the seventh-highest turnover-worthy-play percentage (4.2 TWP%) among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this year. Further, he is mid-pack with a 5.8% sack rate. The Panthers are favored at home, so they will have a chance to pin their ears back and pile up points if the game goes according to plan.
Game: Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -11.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Lions Analysis: I am avoiding the Lions at all costs. Their implied total of 16.25 points tells the whole story. Detroit is starting Jared Goff as he nurses an oblique injury or turning the reigns over to Tim Boyle. If Boyle starts, it will be his first in the NFL. And, frankly, it's remarkable he is in the NFL. According to Sports-Reference, he threw only one touchdown and 13 interceptions, averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt (2.4 Adjusted Yards per Attempt) in 19 games at Connecticut. Then, he culminated his career at Eastern Kentucky, throwing 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, averaging 194.0 passing yards per game at 6.5 yards per attempt in 11 games, per the team's website. I expect Detroit's offense to fail spectacularly if Boyle is the starter and continue to scuffle if Goff plays hurt.
Browns Analysis: It appears Cleveland's offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt expects Nick Chubb to return from the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. If Chubb is surprisingly out, D'Ernest Johnson is an elite option as the team's feature back. That's all I'll say on Johnson, though, as it appears Chubb is coming back this week.
A presumably returning Chubb is in the perfect spot to feast. Detroit is 29th in rush defense DVOA, and Chubb is a man amongst boys at running back. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Chubb is third in missed tackles forced (35) and 10-plus yard rushes (22), and first in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.58 YCO/A). With the Browns laying double-digit points to the visiting Lions, the game script is projected to be perfect for Chubb to rip them apart. We are projecting him to be the RB5 at DraftKings and RB4 at FanDuel this week, and he might move up once he is officially activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list.
You saw the college stats I listed for Boyle above, right? And Goff is awful when healthy and will be worse if he plays hurt, right? Therefore, I don't need to explain any further why Cleveland's comically underpriced on DraftKings and my favorite DST pick there. Also, while I don't think I can pull the trigger on spending $5,000 for their services at FanDuel, I won't summarily dismiss the idea.
Finally, I'm not sure I'll actually use Donovan Peoples-Jones. However, he's a matchup-driven selection that theoretically can pan out. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Lions allow the second-highest average explosive pass rate (12%). Meanwhile, DPJ has run the second-most routes (48) for the Browns in their previous two games, retaining a field-stretching role with an average depth of target of 19.6 yards. Thus, DPJ is capable of paying off on just one deep pass.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: SF -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
49ers Analysis: Deebo Samuel is tied for 13th in receptions per game (6.0), tied for 11th in offensive touchdowns (seven), second in receiving yards per game (108.8), and target share (31.2%), and first in Yards After the Catch. He's carving up defenses, adding value on the ground with 58 rushing yards on 11 attempts. Even with George Kittle returning from the injured reserve in Week 9, Samuel is still the top option in San Francisco's offense. This week, he is likely licking his chops with Jacksonville (31st in pass defense DVOA) on tap. As a result, we project him as WR5 at both sites, awarding him the second-highest value score among wideouts at FanDuel.
Kittle is in a smash spot against Jacksonville's terrible pass defense as well. In his first two games back from the injured reserve, he is third on the 49ers in routes (48), second in receiving yards (151), and first in targets (14), receptions (11), and receiving touchdowns (two). So understandably, our optimizer is enamored with him, ranking him as TE2 with the second-highest value score at FanDuel and top value score at DraftKings among tight ends.
Elijah Mitchell had surgery for a broken finger on Tuesday, but he's expected to play this week. This year, the rookie sixth-round pick is a revelation, ranking tied for fifth in 10-plus yard runs (19), fifth in rushing yards per game (80.0), and second with 4.03 YCO/A. He has produced 76 yards from scrimmage in four straight games and five of seven contests. The 49ers are favored against the Jaguars, laying the groundwork for Mitchell to do work on the ground -- an eye-roll-inducing turn of phrase intended. I love Mitchell as a GPP value option at DraftKings and FanDuel. However, our optimizer prefers using him at DraftKings, where he sports the third-highest value score among running backs.
Jaguars Analysis: Dan Arnold is no longer my favorite value option at tight end. However, that's only because DraftKings is finally raising his salary to an amount commensurate with his level of play with the Jaguars. He has at least 60 receiving yards and four receptions in four of his last five games. Among tight ends targeted at least 15 times since Week 5, Arnold is tied for fifth in receptions (25) and fifth in yards per route run (1.83 Y/RR), targets (34), and receptions (286), despite the Jaguars' Week 7 bye. So, he's a defensible option in daily games, with Jacksonville likely playing catch-up against the visiting 49ers and Arnold serving as the Jags' de facto top passing-game option.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: GB -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Aaron Rodgers wasn't sharp in returning from the reserve/COVID-19 list last week. Still, he knows where his bread is buttered, targeting Davante Adams 11 times, resulting in seven receptions for 78 yards for the stud wideout. Adams perfectly blends elite volume (30.1% target share) with top-shelf efficiency (2.82 Y/RR) to produce 7.2 receptions and 96.0 receiving yards per game. Thus, it's easy to understand why he is projected as the WR1 in daily fantasy this week. I don't need to elaborate on Adams ' case for usage in all lineup types further.
Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a semi-intriguing dart throw as a big-play-dependent value pick. MVS was third in routes (27) for the Packers last week, and he's used as a vertical weapon, tallying the third-deepest average depth of target (20.7) among players targeted at least 15 times. He epitomizes a boom-or-bust pick.
Finally, AJ Dillon is probably my favorite player on this week's slate. He'll be a chalky pick. However, that's for a good reason. The jacked second-year back is in store for a bell-cow workload against the Vikings. Minnesota is 28th in rush defense DVOA, coughing up 4.48 yards per rush attempt to running backs this season. Dillon has surpassed 75 yards from scrimmage in five of his last seven games, even in a backup capacity. Last week, he piled up 128 scrimmage yards, two receptions, and two touchdowns. The sky is the limit for him, and his salary is too low relative to his upside. Thus, he is the owner of the fifth-highest value score at DraftKings and highest value score at FanDuel among running backs.
Vikings Analysis: Green Bay is eight in pass defense DVOA. Additionally, according to Football Outsiders, the Packers are playing at the fourth-slowest situation neutral pace. Thus Green Bay's pass defense and slow pace are a recipe for Minnesota's passing attack failing to deliver the goods in daily fantasy this week. So, I'm fading Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Tyler Conklin. Do they have the talent to succeed despite the challenges this week? Yes, but I view Minnesota's passing attack as a poor allocation of resources in daily fantasy in Week 11.
However, Dalvin Cook is a stellar pick. Green Bay's rush defense is far more beatable, ranking 24th in rush defense DVOA. Further, Cook is a do-it-all back, averaging 92.6 rushing yards, 2.6 receptions, and 15.6 receiving yards per game. He is projected as the RB2 this week in a plus matchup, carrying the second-highest value score among running backs at FanDuel.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Spread: BAL -5.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens were terrible last week. However, it was a Thursday Night Football game on the road, making it a challenging situation. So, I'm cutting them some slack for their dud. It starts at the top with Lamar Jackson. He's cranked his duel-threat ability up to a new level this year, ranking 10th in passing yards per game (217.9) and ninth in rushing yards per game (71.0). Opposing him, the Bears are 19th in pass defense DVOA and 21st in rush defense DVOA. Thus, this is a rebound spot for Jackson and his unrivaled ceiling. He is the QB1 in our projections, owning the second-highest value score at DraftKings and highest at FanDuel among quarterbacks. Therefore, he's an excellent selection in all game types.
Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are high-upside GPP picks, operating at Jackson's top pass-catching options. Hollywood is 10th in receiving yards per game (79.9), tied for ninth in receiving touchdowns (nine), and second in Intended Air Yards (1,106). Meanwhile, Andrews is an elite pivot off a forthcoming tight end. Baltimore's tight end is in the top five among tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown receptions. He's a legitimate weekly candidate to lead the position in scoring.
Finally, Baltimore's defense is tailor-made to give rookie Justin Fields fits. This is a troubling matchup for him, taking nothing away from Fields' brilliance in his last two games. Fields has the 10th-highest TWP% (3.7), is the sixth-slowest to throw the ball (3.00 seconds), and is sacked at the highest rate (13.4%). As for the Ravens, they are blitzing at the third-highest rate (33.2%) and pressuring quarterbacks at the second-highest rate (28.5%). As a result, I expect Fields to suffer a hiccup in this game, making the Ravens a high-upside DST selection.
Bears Analysis: David Montgomery returned from the injured reserve in Week 9. That week, he led running backs in playing time percentage (85%). Further, he parlayed his playing time into 13 carries for 63 yards and two receptions for 17 yards. Thus, he's firmly entrenched as Chicago's bell-cow again, making him an egregiously underpriced running back. Montgomery is projected as the top value running back at DraftKings and a top-five value at FanDuel.
I don't like Cole Kmet at FanDuel. Instead, I prefer to use one of the starts at the position there. However, he's the cheapest option I'll consider as a punt at DraftKings. In addition, he has the second-highest value score at DraftKings. While I analyzed Kmet as a season-long fantasy sleeper for numberFire earlier this week, the rationale for using him carries over to picking him at a punt salary on DraftKings. So, instead of plagiarizing my previous analysis, I suggest checking out the link.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: CIN -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: Joe Burrow was eased into his sophomore campaign. However, head coach Zac Taylor took off the training wheels starting in Week 4. Since then, in neutral scoring game scripts, the Bengals are passing at the second-highest rate (67%). Even with the less pass-happy first three weeks of the year, Burrow is ninth in passing yards per game (277.4) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (20). I'll take some GPP cracks at Burrow in a plus matchup against the Raiders (22nd in pass defense DVOA).
Cincinnati's pass-happy offense is conducive to supporting more than one pass-catcher. Ja'Marr Chase is making a seamless transition from dominating at the collegiate level to doing so in the NFL, despite opting out and missing the 2020 college football season. Among receivers targeted at least 25 times this year, he is sixth in yards per route run (2.69). Chase is also fifth among qualified pass-catchers in yards per target (11.4 Y/Tgt). He's converted his elite efficiency into 4.9 receptions and 92.8 receiving yards per game, and seven touchdown receptions. Chase is projected to be the WR8 this week, and he has a matching value-score ranking at FanDuel.
Tee Higgins is a great running mate. The second-year receiver is averaging 5.0 receptions and 61.6 receiving yards per game. Higgins is also commanding ample targets even as the second fiddle, netting five or more in all seven games he's played. In his previous three games, he's hauled in 17 receptions for 237 receiving yards on 29 targets. Our optimizer isn't sleeping on him, pegging him with the sixth-highest value score among receivers at FanDuel and highest mark at DraftKings.
I won't use Cincinnati's defense at DraftKings. They're the cheapest defense I'll use at FanDuel, though. The Raiders have been struggling since waiving Henry Ruggs III following the fatal accident he was responsible for. In their previous two games, they've totaled only 30 points with five turnovers. Thus, I'm skeptical of the Raiders snapping out of their funk this week.
Raiders Analysis: I almost included Darren Waller in the table above. He overcame Las Vegas' recent struggles in Week 9, catching seven passes for 92 yards. Unfortunately, he fell to four receptions for 24 yards in Week 10. Waller's usage screams an upcoming blow-up game. However, until someone can replace Ruggs' field-stretching ability, I'm concerned defenses will continue to keep Waller in check. So, I'm fading him.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: ARI -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Cardinals Analysis: I view James Conner's daily fantasy utility as wholly tied to Kyler Murry returning this week. If he is out, I expect the offense to resemble the tire fire that produced only 169 yards of offense and 10 points. Conner's day was salvaged by a touchdown last week. If Murray is back, Conner's workhorse role is much more attractive. He is projected as the second-best value at running back on DraftKings and the fourth-best value on FanDuel this week.
Seahawks Analysis: I initially intended on writing about Gerald Everett. He has played well in his last two games with Russell Wilson. But, unfortunately, Everett hasn't practiced this week. So, he's trending in the wrong direction to suit up this week, and I won't use him on my daily rosters with the risk of aggravating his injury during the game if he is active. Finally, I'm fading Seattle's offense entirely after Wilson's ghastly return (161 passing yards and two interceptions on 40 pass attempts) from finger surgery last week.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 56.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: I'm not going to waste your time elaborating in-depth on how great Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper are. Instead, I'll zoom out for a macro view of this game. The game's over/under is a slate-high 56.5 points. Further, the spread is only 2.5 points, indicating betting action, and line makers expect this to be a back-and-forth shootout.
The pace of the game is likely to be drool-inducing as well. The Cowboys are playing at the second-fastest situation neutral pace, and Kansas City is playing at the ninth-fastest pace. Therefore, the conditions are ripe for both offenses running tons of plays and piling up fantasy points in bunches. Quickly addressing the studs, Zeke is projected as the RB6 at DraftKings and RB5 at FanDuel, Lamb is the WR6, Prescott is the QB4, and Cooper is the WR10 at DraftKings and WR11 at FanDuel. So, they're all elite options against Kansas City's suspect defense that ranks 26th in rush defense DVOA and 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup are high-upside ancillary options that might not garner as much interest as their superstar teammates. Schultz is projected as TE7 at both daily fantasy providers. Meanwhile, I analyzed Gallup in-depth for numberFire as one of five value plays I love there this week. Check out that piece for a deeper dive into why I love him at FanDuel in GPPs. Interestingly, I'm more intrigued by Gallup at DraftKings. The optimizer agrees with my more significant interest in Gallup at DraftKings, tabbing him as the 14th-best value at wide receiver.
Chiefs Analysis: There is a strong case I saved the best for last. The Chiefs have the highest implied total on the main slate at 29.5 points. The macro overview that supports loading up on Dallas' studs supports doing the same with the favored Chiefs' studs. Tyreek Hill is projected as WR2, Patrick Mahomes is projected as QB3, and Travis Kelce is projected as TE1. Last week, Kansas City got their mojo back, torching the Raiders for 41 points and 516 yards of offense. As a result, I suggest having significant exposure to Kansas City's Big Three.
It's unclear if Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be activated from the injured reserve this week. However, Darrel Williams is a tantalizing, cheap piece of this game if CEH is out. In the previous three weeks, Williams has touch totals of 19 (six receptions), 22 (three receptions), and 20 (nine receptions), producing scrimmage yardage totals of 110, 77, and 144. Unfortunately, I don't trust any of Kansas City's back to command a prominent role this week if CEH is back.
Finally, Byron Pringle is my favorite GPP swerve in this game. Yes, his 4-46-1 line on five targets last week is only ho-hum. Nevertheless, he played a season-high 61% of the team's offensive snaps, running the third-most routes (34) on the team en route to a new season-high for routes. Comparatively, season-long underachiever Mecole Hardman ran only 17 routes. If this is a changing of the guard, Pringle might be a steal at his salary.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
