Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Rams

Date/Time: Sunday November 7, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 53.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Rams 30.5, Titans 23

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill: Per Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy, the Titans haven’t had a single game with a neutral pass rate over 51% since the start of the 2020 season. This mostly confirms something we already knew; that the Titans consider themselves a run-first offense, led by Derrick Henry. Of course, “the Big Dog” will be sidelined for at least the next 6-10 weeks according to Ian Rapoport. We’ll get to their running backs in a second, but the question now becomes will the offensive philosophy change at all post-Henry? One would expect the Titans to throw more, but until we get some actual data over the next few weeks we’re only guessing. The biggest takeaway for now is that Tannehill and Tennessee pass catchers have a higher theoretical ceiling than they did at this time last week. Tannehill might not be as efficient as he has been, but volume remains king in fantasy football. Ultimately, the Rams are a shy-away Week 9 matchup. It’s a “sit back and evaluate” recommendation for Tannehill’s fantasy value this weekend.

Matthew Stafford: Through eight weeks this season Stafford ranks first among all quarterbacks in yards per attempt (9.1) and EPA per play (win probability 10-90%). The 33-year-old’s pairing with Sean McVay has gone exactly as planned thus far. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 7-of-8 games, including 3+ TDs in 5-of-8 contests. He might lack a monstrous ceiling given that his offense relies more on efficiency than play volume, but that efficiency gives him a high floor. Of course, this neutral-to-plus matchup could become even better if the Titans are able to keep up with the Rams offensively. This game has the second-highest over/under on the Week 9 slate.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson: Tennessee’s defense is about equal in terms of EPA per play when defending both the run (20th) and the pass (19th). Los Angeles prefers to throw the ball to build leads, but the 7-1 Rams are no stranger to this, playing with leads and eventually turning to the run. Henderson’s utilization and offensive environment are both fantastic. When the game is close and Henderson is at full health he basically never leaves the field. His seven scores in seven games also feels sustainable given how often the Rams play in the red zone. Overall, Hendo’s profile is that of a matchup-proof, top-five fantasy running back.

Sony Michel: We had no idea the Rams felt comfortable using Henderson this much. Immediately following the trade from the Patriots, it seemed likely that Michel would split time with him, even if Henderson wound up being the team’s “1A.” Alas, Michel is only ever on the field when the former needs a blow or the game is out of reach. The fact that Michel was given 24 opportunities (carries + targets) in the one game Henderson missed this year makes him one of the more valuable handcuffs in the league.

Adrian Peterson: Arguably the best running back of his generation is back for his age-36 campaign. Miraculously, Peterson wasn’t toast in his 2020 stint with the Lions, playing in all 16 games and rushing for 604 yards and seven touchdowns. He might take some time to get acclimated to Tennessee’s offense, but it’s no secret that his running style aligns with that of Henry. Rational coaching leads us to believe that the Titans will shift to the pass a bit more, but Peterson will be the bruising option when the team wants to run the ball. Temper expectations early on, but the late-season schedule is something to keep in mind when it comes to potential trades. Peterson draws plus spots in Week 11 (vs Texans), Week 14 (vs Jaguars), and Week 17 (vs Dolphins). He’s on the RB2/3 borderline the rest of the way.

Jeremy McNichols: He has gotten some run on third downs this year and will likely be the team’s pass-catching back for the rest of the season. Darrynton Evans is out for the year, so McNichols should see as much work through the air as he can handle, especially until Peterson gets up to speed. McNichols will likely be more involved on the ground over the next week or two than he will be down the stretch, which combined with his pass-catching role makes him the superior play over AP in the short term. The potential for trailing game script against the Rams makes him a worthwhile FLEX option in full-PPR formats.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: As mentioned in the Tannehill section, we don’t technically know how the Titans will operate without Henry, but what’s clear is they need to keep utilizing play-action. In Weeks 1-4 Tannehill used PA on just 25% of his throws, which was down from 36% in 2020. From Weeks 5-8 this number has spiked to 34.7%. Curiously, Tannehill ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play during this time. No receiver in the league is targeted more on PA than AJB, who checks in at 44%. The concept has helped turn around Brown’s season following a slow start. Regardless of what happens to Tennessee’s offense, we need them to keep deploying this strategy.

Julio Jones: The 32-year-old has played in just 5-of-8 games this year while topping 60 receiving yards just once. His yards per route run (2.35) and ADOT (13.7) are in line with his career figures, but we just can’t rely on his health anymore. Jones is no sure thing to play on Sunday night against the Rams. We simply need to see more before we can trust him again.

Cooper Kupp: What else is there to say about Stafford’s breakfast-eating bestie? Stafford’s arrival has done wonders for Kupp’s production, and he enters Week 9 as the overall WR1 in virtually any fantasy scoring system you can find. Through eight games Kupp is hogging a preposterous 32% of LA’s targets while registering a 9.5 ADOT. Additionally, he has been targeted on 32% of his routes with a 39% air yards share of the offense. Kupp is running hot in the TD department (10 in eight games feels unsustainable, even by his standards). Regardless, he will continue seeing opportunities as he’s currently being targeted on 30% of the Rams’ end zone targets. Nothing about the Titans’ defensive profile should have you shying away from Kupp’s elite floor/ceiling.

Robert Woods: The other LA receiver has also seen his utilization profile change following Stafford’s arrival. Simply put, McVay doesn’t need to design as many “gimme” touches (screens, carries) for Woods, since the offense isn’t reliant on manufacturing production that way. Woods’ usage has therefore frustrated some fantasy managers, particularly given how well Kupp is playing these days. Nonetheless, he’s seeing a 21% target share with an 8.5 ADOT entering this Titans game. The 29-year-old remains a low-end WR2, especially during busy bye weeks.

Van Jefferson: Veteran wideout DeSean Jackson was released earlier this week, which vaults Jefferson into an every-down role moving forward. The second-year receiver has only been targeted on 16% of his routes through Week 8, but his 14.0 ADOT gives him potential for big plays. It also seems as if the Rams prefer taking these shots via play-action, as Jefferson receives 26% of his looks when utilizing PA. He’s a boom-bust fantasy option even with Jackson gone, but he carries low-end WR2 upside should anything happen to Kupp or Woods.

Tight Ends

Geoff Swaim: He has taken the lead tight end role for the Titans, but there just isn’t enough usage here to make him a recommended fantasy flier. Swaim has run a route on just 31% of Tennessee’s plays this season, highlighted by a 55% mark in Week 8. We typically want our tight ends in the 80% range.

Tyler Higbee: We typically want two things from our tight end streamers. We want to play a lot, and we want them to run routes. Higbee checks the first box, coming in at an 80% snap share through eight games. Unfortunately, he’s been targeted on just 15% of his routes, which is even less than Jefferson. A 4.3 ADOT isn’t worth getting too excited about. For fantasy purposes, Higbee is little more than a cheap source of the Rams’ offense.

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Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Date/Time: Monday November 8, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Steelers -6
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 40 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Steelers 23, Bears 17

Quarterback

Justin Fields: Fields had his best fantasy performance to date in Week 8, scoring 26.3 points and finishing QB5 on the week thanks largely to 103 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also had 173 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. Fields’ running ability is an attractive part of the package, and if he can develop into an NFL-caliber passer, he’ll eventually become a coveted fantasy asset. But he’s a full fade this week on the road against a decent Steelers pass defense. Fields checks in at QB21.

Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger’s weekly fantasy finishes this season: QB28, QB23, QB23, QB29, QB18, QB23, QB18. When the upside is QB18, there is no upside. Consider Roethlisberger a low-end QB2 this week against an average Bears pass defense.

Running Backs

Khalil Herbert: Herbert had a 23-72-0 rushing day against a tough 49ers run defense in Week 8, and he’ll now face a tough Steelers run defense that ranks sixth in DVOA and has given up only three TD runs. Over the last four weeks, Herbert has carried 78 times for 344 yards and a touchdown, with at least 18 carries in each of those contests. He’s also caught 9 of 10 targets for 44 yards over that span. Consider Herbert a midrange RB2 this week. The workload is attractive but the matchup is daunting.

Najee Harris: The Steelers have really ramped up Najee’s rushing load in recent weeks. After averaging 13.8 carries over his first four games, the rookie has averaged 24.3 carries over his last three. He’s stayed involved in the passing game, too, with 15 targets over his last three games resulting in 11 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. With Derrick Henry on IR, Harris might be getting the closest thing we’ll see to a Henry-caliber workload. Harris has averaged 20.8 fantasy points since Week 5. He’s the RB6 this week in a home matchup against the Bears.

Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney: As bad as things have been for Allen Robinson this season, they haven’t been all that much better for Mooney. The second-year man from Tulane has 33-409-1 on the season, making him the WR43 in fantasy scoring. So it goes in an offense that ranks dead last in passing yards (1,261) and TD passes (4). And the Bears haven’t even been on bye yet. Mooney is the WR41 this week against the Steelers.

Allen Robinson: A-Rob still hasn’t topped 63 yards in a game this season, and his only touchdown came in Week 2. His per-game averages in 2021: 5.5 targets, 3.3 receptions, 33.9 yards, 0.1 touchdowns. Sigh. Even in a four-team bye week, Robinson is way down at WR45 in the rankings.

Diontae Johnson: Johnson might have the most locked-in target volume of any receiver in the league. He’s seen double-digit targets in five of the six games he’s played. Johnson has had a trio of nine-catch games, and he’s cleared 70 receiving yards in five consecutive games. Johnson faces a Bears defense that’s giving up 27.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He’s likely to run most of his routes against Jaylon Johnson, one of the better young cornerbacks in the league, but you’re embracing the target volume and not sweating the matchup. Johnson is a low-end WR1.

Chase Claypool: When JuJu Smith-Schuster went down with what would prove to be a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5, Claypool had 5-130-1 that game. It seemed as if Smith-Schuster’s absence would clear the runway for a Claypool takeoff, but it hasn’t happened yet. In the two games since JuJu’s injury, Claypool has 6-62-0 on 12 targets. The deterioration of QB Ben Roethlisberger‘s play is a big part of the problem. Claypool’s average depth of target this season is 11.9 yards, and longer throws are a tough ask for Big Ben these days. Claypool is going to be a monster – he’s a physical mismatch for almost every cornerback he faces – but he’s destined for a roller-coaster ride this season because he’s tethered to Roethlisberger. Claypool is a low-end WR2 this week.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Over his last four games, Kmet has 14-138-0 on 21 targets. The increased involvement is encouraging, but the Bears have the least prolific passing game in the league, and Kmet will remain on the fringes of fantasy relevance until rookie QB Justin Fields takes a step up in class.

Pat Freiermuth: The rookie from Penn State has seen seven targets in each of his last two games, producing 7-58-0 against Seattle in Week 7 and 4-44-1 against Cleveland in Week 8. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger used to love throwing to Heath Miller, and it seems as if Big Ben is forging a similar on-field relationship with Freiermuth, who ranks TE15 this week against a Bears defense that’s giving up 3.2 fantasy points per game to TEs – the lowest total in the league.

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Date/Time: Thursday October 28, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Colts -10.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Colts 28.25, Jets 17.75

Quarterback

Mike White: Here’s a perfect example of how disadvantageous it is for a backup quarterback to enter a game cold after an injury to a starter, as opposed to getting an entire week of preparation and practice reps. White was predictably ineffective in Week 7 when forced to sub for injured starter Zach Wilson, completing 20 of 32 passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Even with White getting a full week to prepare as the starter, it was hard to imagine the dramatic turnaround he gave us in Week 8. He completed 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the Jets’ upset victory over the Bengals, and he finished second in QB fantasy scoring for the week behind only Josh Allen. White gets less time to prepare this week with the Jets visiting Indianapolis to face the Colts on Thursday. The Bengals may have fallen victim to complacency in Week 8 coming off a triumphant road win over the Ravens, but the Colts aren’t likely to be complacent after a painful overtime loss to the Titans. White has thus far looked like a credible NFL passer, though his four interceptions in less than two games are a red flag. It’s hard to imagine another 28-point fantasy performance from him, but I’ve got four QBs ranked behind White this week, and you’re probably happy to have him if you play in a superflex or 2QB league.

Carson Wentz: A Thursday-night date with the Colts awaits Wentz just four days after his worst performance of the season in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Colts. Wentz averaged 4.5 yards per pass attempt against Tennessee, completing 27 of 51 throws for 231 yards with three touchdowns and two costly, bad-looking interceptions. Despite a glaring lack of experience at the CB position, the Jets haven’t been an especially easy matchup for opposing quarterbacks – at least not in fantasy, where they’re yielding 17.6 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Wentz checks in at QB14 this week.

Running Backs

Michael Carter and Ty Johnson: The insertion of backup QB Mike White for injured starter Zach Wilson has spiked the fantasy value of the Jets’ running backs since White has been a check-down machine. After seeing 14 targets in his first five games, Carter has been targeted 23 times (!) over his last two games, catching 17 passes for 162 yards. In full-point PPR scoring, Carter has been the RB2 over the last two weeks behind only Alvin Kamara. The rookie also had a season-high 15 carries in Week 8, rushing for 77 yards and a touchdown. Carter gets a tough Thursday-night matchup against a Colts defense that’s giving up only 13.6 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) to opposing running backs, but there’s no way you can bench Carter in season-long leagues when he’s getting this type of usage. He’s a top-end RB2 this week, checking in at RB13. Johnson has played between 20 and 24 snaps in each of his last four games. That’s certainly not a bankable workload, but Johnson has benefitted from White’s dump-off tendencies as well, with 11-136-1 receiving over the last two weeks on 13 targets, helping to make him the RB10 in full-point PPR over that span. I don’t think Johnson is a great bet to repeat that sort of production, but I have him at RB40 this week and think he’s a decent any-port-in-a-storm option in a four-team bye week.

Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: It was coaching malpractice for Colts head man Frank Reich to give Taylor only 16 carries last week in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Titans. Maybe we shouldn’t begrudge Reich for trying to manage Taylor’s workload after seeing Derrick Henry lost to a foot injury that will probably end his season. But it seems more than a little silly that Taylor is averaging 15.1 carries and hasn’t had more than 18 carries in a game this season, particularly when he averaged 22.6 carries a game over three college seasons at Wisconsin and never missed time due to injury. Even with a too-cautiously-managed workload, Taylor is the overall RB1 this week against a Jets defense that’s giving up a league-high 27.2 fantasy points per game to running backs. Hines has played 36% of the Colts’ offensive snaps this season, but he’s been under 32% for three consecutive weeks. His impact has been minimal even in the passing game, which is his primary milieu. He’s averaging 2.5 catches and 19.1 receiving yards per game, and he’s the WR59 in 0.5 PPR scoring. Hines is probably droppable even in full-point PPR leagues.

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis: As of midweek it was unclear whether Davis would be able to play against the Colts on Thursday after missing Week 7 with a hip injury. Davis leads the Jets in targets (42), receiving yards (349), and TD catches (4) and would fall into midrange WR4 territory if he were cleared to play.

Jamison Crowder: After missing the first three games of the year with a groin injury, Crowder has been doing typical Jamison Crowder-type things since his return, giving his fantasy managers a lot of low-impact receptions. He has 23-203-1 in four games, making him the WR30 in PPR points per game over that stretch but only the WR48 in standard scoring. As always, Crowder is usable but not especially sexy. He ranks WR44 in 0.5 PPR scoring this week.

Elijah Moore: The rookie from Ole Miss had a season-high six catches for 67 yards last week despite playing only 67 snaps. Moore is going to be a good one, but it’s hard to trust him in lineups when he’s splitting snaps with Keelan Cole and playing with a backup quarterback. He lands at WR63 in the Week 9 rankings.

Michael Pittman: This is what a second-year breakout looks like. Pittman saw a career-high 15 targets last week and had the first multiple-TD game of his career last week against the Titans, finishing with 10-86-2. His best catch wasn’t one of the touchdowns, but rather a 38-yard grab where Carson Wentz basically floated up a prayer in the middle of the field and Pittman won a jump ball amidst four Titans defenders. Since Week 2, Pittman has averaged 8.7 targets a game, and that includes a rain-soaked, four-target game against the 49ers (where Pittman still finished with 105 yards and a TD) and a 31-3 blowout of the Texans in which the Colts only needed to attempt 20 passes. You’re starting Pittman every week without question in season-long leagues. With T.Y. Hilton already ruled out for Thursday night’s game against the Jets, Pittman figures to be awash in targets. He’s a high-end WR2 this week.

Zach Pascal: With T.Y. Hilton already ruled out of Thursday night’s game against the Jets with a concussion, Pascal can at least be considered as a possible lineup option for bye-afflicted fantasy managers. The only game where Pascal had fewer than five targets this season was one of the two games Hilton has played. You’d have to be pretty desperate though: Pascal hasn’t cleared 48 yards in any game this year. He’s a low-end WR5.

Tight Ends

Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox had scored four touchdowns over a four-game stretch in Weeks 4-7 before going catchless on four targets against the Titans in Week 8. He hasn’t seen more than five targets in any game this season, so the ceiling is pretty low, but Alie-Cox is a viable TE streamer in a good matchup against the Jets where the Colts will be missing WR T.Y. Hilton (concussion). Alie-Cox lands at TE17 in this week’s rankings.

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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.