Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 27, Raiders 24.5

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes: Just when you think the season can’t get any worse for Mahomes, it gets worse. Against the Packers in Week 9, Mahomes completed 20 of 37 passes for 166 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. He averaged 4.5 yards per pass attempt, the lowest YPA of any game in his career by almost a full yard. Can Mahomes get his mojo back when opponents are hell-bent on taking the deep ball, his bread and butter, away from him? Over his last three games, Mahomes has averaged 215.7 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt, with just two TD passes over that span. Last year, Mahomes threw for 340 yards and 348 yards in his two games against the Raiders. This year, he’s had only one 300-yard game since Week 2. Nearly as surprising as Mahomes’ ineffective play of late is the respectability of the Raiders’ pass defense. Las Vegas is allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt and has given up only 20 completions of 20 or more yards, tied for the fourth-lowest total in the league. I’m optimistically ranking Mahomes QB4, but the floor is much lower than that.

Derek Carr: Carr is averaging 320.6 passing yards per game and ranks second in the league in that category behind Tom Brady. But Carr is only QB14 in fantasy points per game, largely because he’s averaged just 1.6 TD passes per game and hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in any game this year. Carr gets a mouth-watering matchup this week against a Chiefs pass defense that ranks 27th in DVOA. It’s worth noting that Carr was fantastic in two games against the Chiefs last year, throwing for 622 yards and six touchdowns. Carr is a high-end QB2 this week.

Running Backs

Darrel Williams: There was minor panic among Williams investors when Derrick Gore got 11 carries and had a TD run in Week 8, but Williams dominated the workload in Week 9, with 19-70-0 rushing in a win over the Packers. The eventual return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from a sprained MCL will likely cut into Williams’ workload, but it doesn’t appear that either Gore or Jerick McKinnon will. (CEH returned to practice this week but isn’t expected to play Sunday night.) Williams is a midrange RB2 this week against an average Raiders run defense.

Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake: Jacobs and Drake have been splitting snaps nearly evenly in the Raiders’ last two games. Jacobs had a streak of three consecutive games with a touchdown snapped in the Raiders 23-16 Week 9 loss to the Giants, but he had a season-high 76 rushing yards. Jacobs has been more involved in the passing game of late, with at least three catches in four of his last five games. He’s a mid-range RB2 this week. Drake, meanwhile, has racked up 22-133-2 rushing and 11-119-1 over his last three games, making him the RB11 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. He’s a mid-range RB3 against the Chiefs.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill’s week-to-week numbers have been wildly erratic this season as the Chiefs’ offense struggles to find its footing. He caught 4 of 11 targets for 37 yards against the Packers last week. It was the third time in nine games that Hill has been held under 50 receiving yards in 2021. Now, he faces a Raiders defense that’s been stingy against wide receivers, limiting them to 18.1 fantasy points per game. Hill is the WR3 this week, but his investors aren’t feeling the same level of confidence in him that they had back in September.

Mecole Hardman: Hardman is averaging 4.2 catches and 41.3 receiving yards per game. After averaging 20.7 yards per catch as a rookie in 2019, he’s now averaging less than half of that: 9.8 yards per catch. Hardman has scored just one touchdown in 2021, and that was way back in Week 3. Where have all the big plays gone? Hardman ranks WR49 this week against the Raiders.

Hunter Renfrow: In the Raiders’ first game without Henry Ruggs, who’s facing a felony DUI charge and other charges after a fatal car crash in Las Vegas, Renfrow had 7-49-1 on nine targets. Those Week 9 catch and target totals tied season highs for Renfrow, and he’s likely to remain heavily involved with Ruggs gone, even though the Raiders have signed DeSean Jackson to take Ruggs’ place as their designated field stretcher. Renfrow is averaging 10.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He’s a high-end WR3 this week in a favorable matchup against the Chiefs. Renfrow will likely be running a lot of his routes against Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed, who’s giving up 0.33 fantasy points per route run against him, according to PFF.

Bryan Edwards: A week after scoring his first touchdown of the season, Edwards failed to catch a pass in the Raiders’ Week 9 loss to the Giants. He has 18-346-1 in eight games. Edwards is averaging 19.2 yards per catch and has made some big plays, but he’s has been unable to remain consistently involved in the Las Vegas offense. He’s a back-end WR4 against the Chiefs this week.

DeSean Jackson: D-Jax is expected to make his debut with the Raiders on Sunday night after signing with them last Sunday. The team needed a vertical receiver now that Henry Ruggs is facing a felony DUI charge and other charges after a car crash that killed a young woman and her dog. Jackson has always been a boom-or-bust receiver, and there’s probably going to be a lot more bust than boom for a 34-year-old receiver who’s joining a new team midseason. Jackson isn’t playable this week.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: With a 1-yard TD catch in the first quarter of the Chiefs’ 13-7 Week 9 win over the Packers, Kelce snapped a three-game drought, though his streak of consecutive games without a 100-yard performance is now at six. Kelce has a phenomenal matchup this week against a Raiders defense that’s been mostly good this season but is giving up a league-high 11.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Darren Waller: Waller is coming off his best game since his tour-de-force performance in the season opener, with 7-92-0 in the Raiders’ Week 9 loss to the Giants. It wasn’t quite as impressive as Waller’s 10-105-1 stat line from Week 1, but it was the first time since the opener that Waller had topped 65 yards in a game. In Week 10, Waller will face a Kansas City defense that’s yielding 10.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the third-highest total in the league.

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Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Date/Time: Monday November 15, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams  -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 49 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Rams 26.5, 49ers 22.5

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Stafford gets a plum Week 10 matchup against a soft 49ers pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and is giving up 20.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. San Francisco has had a run-funnel defense this season, with opponents throwing against the Niners only 52% of the time. But considering that Stafford is averaging 35.7 pass attempts per game, it seems unlikely that the Rams will get overly conservative in this game. Stafford currently ranks QB7 in fantasy points per game, and he’s a midrange QB1 in this week’s rankings.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo threw for a season-high 326 yards and two touchdowns last week in the 49ers’ 31-17 loss to the division-rival Cardinals, but he also threw an interception, took five sacks, and failed to keep up with a Cardinals offense that was being run by backup QB Colt McCoy. It’s only a matter of time before the 49ers turn back to their first-round draft pick, Trey Lance, which makes Garoppolo a high-risk, low-reward fantasy option every week. He’s the QB24 in the Week 10 rankings.

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson: The fact that Henderson had 11-55-0 rushing and 3-3-0 receiving in last week’s loss to the Titans and it was his worst fantasy output of the season says a lot about the kind of season Henderson is having. It was the first time all season that Henderson has been held under 60 yards from scrimmage. This week, Henderson goes up against a 49ers run defense that ranks sixth in DVOA and is holding opposing running backs to 16.4 fantasy points per game, making him a back-end RB1.

Elijah Mitchell: After two straight 100-yard rushing games, Mitchell was held to 8-36-0 rushing in the 49ers’ Week 9 loss to the Cardinals. Arizona simply played keep-away, limiting San Francisco to 23:13 of possession time and forcing the Niners to abandon the run. On the bright side, Mitchell caught 5 of 5 targets for 43 yards against the Cardinals after catching just four passes in his five previous games. Increased usage in the passing game could propel the rookie’s fantasy value even higher. Mitchell is the RB16 this week against an average Rams’ run defense.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: Kupp’s 2021 numbers continue to boggle the mind. He’s now up to 74 catches, 1,019 yards, and 10 touchdowns, leading the league in all three categories. He also has a league-high 103 targets and has seen double-digit targets in all but one game where he had nine. Kupp’s target share could be even bigger than usual this week with Robert Woods now out for the season. Kupp is the WR1 for Week 10 and almost a must-buy in any DFS contest for which he’s on the menu.

Odell Beckham: The Rams weren’t seen as a primary suitor for Beckham, but Rams GM Les Snead likes to make splashy moves, and he made one by signing OBJ, even if the receiver’s production no longer matches the brand name. The signing went from a curious one to a fortuitous one with the news that Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice Friday. It’s unclear how much Beckham will play in his first game with the Rams, or whether he’ll be able to sync up with QB Matthew Stafford so soon after signing. It’s probably best to take a cautious approach to Beckham in his first game with a new team. He lands at WR58 in the rankings.

Van Jefferson: It looked as if the signing of Odell Beckham would obliterate Jefferson’s fantasy value for the rest of the season, but with the news that Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice Friday, Jefferson is probably a little more valuable now than when the week began. Over his last three games, Jefferson has 10-172-1 on 20 targets. He’s averaging 16.0 yards per catch and 9.4 yards per target. It’s been a nice growth season for the second-year receiver. With Woods out and Beckham likely needing some time to get up to speed before playing a full complement of snaps, Jefferson could play a key role this week against the 49ers, making him a low-end WR3.

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been dealing with a calf injury lately and apparently had a setback last week. Perhaps that was one reason that the prolific Samuel had “only” 5-63-0 on nine targets last week against the Cardinals. Or maybe it was because TE George Kittle was back in the lineup for the first time in weeks, or because WR Brandon Aiyuk was finally getting involved. I don’t think we have to worry about Deebo getting caught in a target squeeze. He’s averaging 10.1 targets a game and hasn’t seen fewer than eight targets in any game this season. The greater concern this week is that Samuel might run a lot of his Week 10 routes against Rams CB Jalen Ramsey, a sublime cover man who kept Titans star A.J. Brown bottled up last week. Samuel lands at WR15 in this week’s rankings.

Brandon Aiyuk: After a nightmarish start to the season, Samuel has started to come alive. He had a season-best 6-89-1 performance against the Cardinals in Week 9 on a season-high eight targets. That came on the heels of a seven-target, 4-45-0 game against the Bears in Week 8. It’s probably best to keep expectations in check since alpha receiver Deebo Samuel is still around and since star TE George Kittle is healthy again, too. But at least Aiyuk is demonstrating that he belongs on fantasy rosters rather than on the waiver wire. He’s a high-end WR4 this week.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: It looked as if Higbee had snapped a TD drought last Sunday night when he came down with a Matthew Stafford pass in the back of the end zone, but replay showed that one of Higbee’s feet was just barely on the end line when he landed. No catch, no touchdown. Higbee has two TDs this season and hasn’t scored one since Week 5. But he did have a season-high 10 targets against the Titans last week and finished with 5-51-0. Higbee has a tough Week 10 matchup against a 49ers defense that’s giving up a league-low 3.8 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) to tight ends. He’s merely a high-end TE2.

George Kittle: After missing three games with a calf injury, Kittle made a splash in his Week 9 return, finishing with 6-101-1 on eight targets. It was the first touchdown of the season for Kittle and his first in more than a full calendar year. (His last TD was on Oct. 18, 2020.) Kittle checks in at TE4 this week.

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Date/Time: Thursday November 11, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Ravens -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Ravens 27, Dolphins 19.5

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson: In last week’s Primer, I wrote about how the Ravens’ defensive slippage and the injuries to RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have Jackson poised to produce huge fantasy numbers this season. In Week 10, Jackson put up 32.6 fantasy points in a 34-31 win over the Vikings, thanks in large part to his season-high 120 rushing yards on 21 carries. It also didn’t hurt that the Ravens ran 89 offensive plays in a game that was settled in overtime, giving Jackson ample scoring opportunities. The perfect-storm scenario remains very much in place for Jackson’s Thursday-night matchup against the Dolphins, who are giving up 22.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-highest total in the league. Two weeks ago, Miami allowed another highly mobile quarterback, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, to run eight times for 55 yards and a touchdown. Jackson is the QB1 in this week’s rankings. At $20,700 in DraftKings’ Thursday-night showdown, Jackson will eat up 41.4% of your five-player budget, but you’re more or less surrendering if you don’t pay up for him.

Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett: Tua missed Week 9 with a small fracture in the middle finger of his throwing hand, and it sounds as if we won’t know his status until a few hours before game time Thursday night. He’s been decent so far, although Tua has been somewhat matchup-sensitive. In the four games he’s started and finished, he played well against the Jaguars and Falcons, not so well against the Patriots and Bills. Poor offensive line play has been a problem for Miami all year – PFF ranks the Dolphins last in the league in pass blocking – and the Dolphins will be without WRs DeVante Parker (hamstring) and Will Fuller (finger). It’s a tough spot for whichever quarterback starts for the Dolphins. Tua is tentatively ranked QB21 this week. Brissett was ineffective in Miami’s unsightly 17-9 win over Houston in Week 9, completing 26 of 43 passes for 244 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He’ll rank QB24 or QB25 if he makes another start in place of Tua.

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Le’Veon Bell: Murray has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is doubtful for Baltimore’s Thursday-night game vs. Miami. With Murray sidelined in Week 9, Freeman played a season-high 58% snap share and had 13-79-0 rushing and 2-4-1 receiving. Freeman actually looked good, like the Falcons-era Freeman, and presumably, he’ll play a lead role Thursday against a Dolphins defense that’s giving up 21.1 fantasy points per game to running backs. Assuming Murray is out, Freeman is a high-end RB3 this week and worthy of consideration for your flex spot. Bell had 11-48-1 rushing against the Vikings in Week 9 and seems to be clearly ahead of Ty’Son Williams, who played 18 snaps against Minnesota but didn’t get any touches, save for a run that was called back on a penalty. Bell is the RB53 this week, and Williams isn’t worth your attention.

Myles Gaskin: The good news for Gaskin investors is that he played a season-high 54 snaps against the Texans in Week 9 and had a season-high 20 carries to go along with six targets. The bad news is that the heavy workload netted 20-34-1 rushing and 6-23-0 receiving. Without a six-yard TD run in the first quarter on a direct snap, Gaskin’s fantasy output would have been anemic, and that was in a friendly matchup against a Texans defense that’s given up more rushing yards than every team but the Chargers. Gaskin’s matchup against the Ravens this week isn’t especially difficult – Baltimore is giving up 20.4 fantasy points per game to running backs – but he’ll be operating behind a bad Miami offensive line that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards run-blocking metric.

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: When first-round rookie Rashod Bateman returned from a core injury and made his NFL debut in Week 6, he out-targeted Brown 6-5 in a blowout win over the Chargers, and there were concerns that Bateman’s presence might cut into Brown’s target share and fantasy value. Those worries appear unfounded now that Brown has seen 26 targets in his last two games, with 14 catches for 196 yards and a touchdown. (By comparison, Bateman has seen 14 targets over Baltimore’s last two games.) Brown gets a plum Thursday-night matchup against a Dolphins pass defense that’s given up 2,528 passing yards and 41 receptions of 20 or more yards – both league highs. Brown is a low-end WR1 this week.

Rashod Bateman: Even with Marquise Brown and TE Mark Andrews continuing to play prominent roles, Bateman has managed to be impactful. The rookie has seen 20 targets in his first three games, catching 12-161-0. Bateman made a couple of tough contested catches in a Week 9 win over the Vikings and drew a 42-yard pass interference call with under a minute left in the first half to set up a short TD pass from Lamar Jackson to Devonta Freeman. Bateman finished with 5-52-0 on eight targets. With a favorable Thursday-night matchup against the Dolphins on tap for Week 10, Bateman ranks WR37 this week.

Sammy Watkins: Watkins injured his hamstring in Week 5 and has been out ever since, and rookie Rashod Bateman missed the first five games of the season with a core injury, so Watkins and Bateman haven’t played together yet. Watkins has been a useful piece, catching 18-292-0 on 32 targets, but it stands to reason that Bateman, a first-round pick, will outrank Watkins on the depth chart and play ahead of him in two-WR sets. Watkins is at least worth keeping on the radar for fantasy purposes with the Ravens’ passing volume way up this year. He checks in at WR60 this week.

Jaylen Waddle: DeVante Parker is going to miss Week 10 with a hamstring injury, and Will Fuller continues to be out with a broken finger. Waddle’s averages in the four games that both Parker and Fuller have missed this season: 9.3 targets, 6.8 catches, 66.8 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns. Waddle’s target volume should be enhanced against the Ravens on Thursday night with Parker and Fuller both out, and he’ll run a lot of his routes against oft-injured Ravens slot corner Tavon Young, who’s giving up an 81% catch rate in his coverage. Consider Waddle a high-end WR3.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Andrews has been held under 50 yards and without a touchdown in each of his last two games, but considering that he’s been targeted 17 times over that span, there’s not much to worry about. The Ravens’ last two opponents, the Vikings and Bengals, are among the 10 stingiest teams as far as fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Andrews has a more favorable matchup this week against a bad Dolphins pass defense. He’s the TE3 for Week 9.

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has a Thursday-night date against a Baltimore defense that’s been bruised by opposing tight ends lately. In their last five games, the Ravens have given up 5-45-0 to the Vikings’ Tyler Conklin, 3-91-2 to the Bengals’ C.J. Uzomah, 4-25-1 to the Chargers’ Jared Cook, 6-73-0 to the Colts’ TE trio, and 6-46-1 to the Broncos’ Noah Fant. Only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have scored more fantasy points this season than Gesicki, who ranks TE8 this week mainly because of concerns about Miami’s QB position.

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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.