Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cardinals -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 27.5, Panthers 17
Quarterback
P.J. Walker: Earlier this week Ian Rapoport reported that Sam Darnold is expected to miss “several weeks” with a fractured scapula. Coach Matt Rhule then specified that Darnold’s timeline is 4-6 weeks. Carolina has since signed Matt Barkley and, more notably, Cam Newton, but Walker is still going to get the starting nod in Week 10. The former XFL star hasn’t been good in limited opportunities this year, completing just 3-of-15 passes for the season. Now he faces an Arizona defense that PFF ranks sixth in pass rush and fifth in coverage. Darnold was playing quite poorly, but it’s tough to make the case that Walker is an upgrade.
Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy: Murray (ankle) didn’t practice on Wednesday and is seemingly fighting an uphill battle to play in Week 10. If he’s able to play for the Cardinals then he’s in your season-long fantasy lineup, even if he’s playing through this ankle issue. McCoy, meanwhile, wasn’t relied on all that much in an easy Week 9 win over the 49ers. Arizona rode their dominant rushing attack and strong defensive play to victory. Against a disastrous Carolina passing offense, a similar game plan would make sense if McCoy winds up starting again. He isn’t a fantasy option.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: The Panthers eased McCaffrey back in on Sunday, limiting him to just 49% of the snaps. They targeted him relentlessly while he was on the field, however, and he wound up with 19 total touches for 106 yards. This is why CMC was drafted No. 1 in every league throughout the offseason. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched in today’s landscape. Arizona’s defense is more vulnerable on the ground than it is through the air. Add in Walker’s limitations and another week of health for McCaffrey, and fantasy managers should view him as a top-three play in Week 10.
Chuba Hubbard: The rookie filled in admirably for fantasy managers while McCaffrey was sidelined. Given CMC’s recent injury history it makes sense to keep Hubbard stashed in all formats. He isn’t a recommended start for Week 10, though.
James Conner: The 26-year-old former Steelers bell-cow got off to a slow start in Weeks 1-2, but he has since erupted for 11 touchdowns over his past seven contests. Fresh off a three-TD outburst in Week 9, Conner’s utilization is poised to reach full-blown RB1 status with Chase Edmonds sidelined due to a high-ankle sprain. Especially if McCoy starts this game, expect the Cardinals to rely on Conner’s dual-threat abilities. He’s a recommended “buy high” entering this one.
Eno Benjamin: Conner operated in an every-down role once Edmonds exited Sunday’s Week 9 game. Benjamin spelled him here and there but didn’t have a defined role. There’s always a chance he handles more pass-catching work with Edmonds out, though. Benjamin shouldn’t be trusted in lineups, but he’s a worthwhile bench stash while we see how the utilization shakes out.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore: The combination of Walker’s insertion into the lineup and a stingy Cardinals pass defense make this a brutal matchup for Moore. His utilization is elite (29% target share, 11.4 ADOT, 41% air yards share), but the downfall of Carolina’s offense has rendered him a low-end WR2 rest-of-season. Temper expectations in Week 10.
Robby Anderson: He’s a full-time player in terms of routes run, but a combination of such a low targets-per-route-run rate (15%) and the Panthers’ QB struggles has killed his fantasy viability. Anderson shouldn’t be trusted in lineups against Arizona’s high-end pass defense.
Terrace Marshall: If the Panthers can’t even support Moore as a trustworthy fantasy play, then there’s little hope for Marshall. The rookie returned from a concussion in Week 9 but ran a route on just 50% of dropbacks and received a single target. He’s only worth rostering in dynasty formats.
DeAndre Hopkins: The star receiver didn’t practice on Wednesday due to his nagging hamstring injury. If he plays in Week 10, then he’s in your fantasy lineup. It’s as simple as that.
A.J. Green: It remains to be seen if the 33-year-old will return for this one. If he does, then Green can be considered a WR3 for Week 10. His target share outlook would increase if Hopkins can’t go.
Christian Kirk: With Hopkins and Green both out in Week 9, Kirk saw a season-high 97% route percentage. Catching passes from Colt McCoy against the Panthers’ 7th ranked coverage unit (per PFF) isn’t the optimal environment for Kirk, but he would also be a WR3/FLEX option depending on the statuses of Hopkins and Green.
Rondale Moore: The rookie’s ADOT for the season is an astonishingly low 1.2 yards. Even with Hopkins/Green sidelined against the 49ers he totaled just 25 yards on five targets. He’s more of a factor in dynasty formats than he is in redraft.
Tight Ends
Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble: Neither player receives enough usage to be seriously considered as a fantasy option in a low-scoring, inefficient passing offense.
Zach Ertz: The former Eagle posted a very strong 84% route percentage in Week 9. If this is a sign of things to come then he’ll remain in the low-end TE1 conversation rest-of-season. However, if it was just a byproduct of missing Hopkins/Green then he’ll remain a TE2.
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 53 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 28, Vikings 25
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Through the first six weeks of the season, Cousins ranked QB10 in fantasy scoring. Over his last two games (losses to the Cowboys and Ravens), Cousins has turned into the check-down king, averaging just 5.9 yards per pass attempt. His average depth of throw this year is just 6.8 yards. A road matchup against the Chargers doesn’t set up especially well for Cousins. The Chargers have an extreme run-funnel defense, with opponents running against them on 50% of their offensive plays. The Chargers’ defense is also much better against the pass than it is against the run, ranking ninth in DVOA against the pass and 32nd in DVOA against the run. Cousins is just a high-end QB2 this week and not an appealing DFS choice.
Justin Herbert: Herbert was masterful last week in a 27-24 win over the Eagles, completing 32 of 38 passes for 356 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The Vikings’ pass defense ranks third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and 10th in opponent passer rating, so Herbert doesn’t have an easy matchup this week, but he’s earned his every-week-starter status. Herbert is the QB7 in this week’s rankings, though his $7,300 price tag makes him a fade in DraftKings contests.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook: First things first: A civil lawsuit filed by Cook’s ex-girlfriend this week accuses him of assault, battery and false imprisonment. Because this is a civil suit rather than a criminal one, and because it has just been filed, it’s highly unlikely that the league will take any action on this before the suit plays out, and the Vikings probably won’t either. Setting aside the legal matters, Cook has a highly appealing matchup this week against a run-funnel Chargers defense that’s given up a league-high 1,293 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry. Opponents are running the ball against the Chargers on about half of their offensive snaps. Over his last three games, Cook has 64-328-1 rushing but only 5-15-0 receiving. Cook is the RB2 this week.
Austin Ekeler: There was some concern last week that a hip injury might keep Ekeler out of the Chargers’ Week 9 game against the Eagles, but he played without limitation and had 17-59-0 rushing and 3-23-0 receiving. Currently the RB3 in fantasy points per game, Ekeler is on pace for 1,018 rushing yards, 691 receiving yards, and 17 touchdowns. On Sunday, he’ll face a Vikings’ run defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and is allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Ekeler is the RB4 this week and an excellent DraftKings play in both cash games and GPPs at a cost of $7,600.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: It’s absurd that Jefferson has been targeted only nine times over his last two games. The first of his five targets against the Ravens in Week 9 resulted in a 50-yard touchdown less than 7 minutes into the game. The second was a seven-yard completion late in the first quarter. Somehow Jefferson saw only three more targets after that – and the game went deep into overtime. Over his last four games, Jefferson has topped 100 yards just one time and scored one touchdown. He’s due for an eruption, but it may not come against a quality Chargers pass defense that’s giving up 197 passing yards per game and has allowed only 19 completions of 20 or more yards, tied for the second-lowest total in the league. Jefferson is a low-end WR1 this week. At $7,700 on DraftKings, Jefferson is a little too expensive in light of the tricky matchup.
Adam Thielen: Week 9 offered a comical example of Thielen’s continued defiance of touchdown regression. Thielen was targeted seven times and had just two catches for six yards against the Ravens, but one of those catches was a 1-yard touchdown with 1:03 left in regulation that tied the game and forced overtime. The Vikings eventually lost 34-31. Thielen is averaging a career-low 10.6 yards per catch. His 7.2 yards per target would also be a career-low. His average depth of target of 9.2 yards is 2.3 yards shallower than his 2020 aDOT. There are some worrisome signs here, but Thielen is still on pace for a 1,000-yard season, and the touchdowns keep on coming. He’s a high-end WR3 this week in a tough matchup vs. the Chargers.
Keenan Allen: Allen had a season-high 12 catches for 104 yards against the Eagles last week. It was the first time Allen had hit the 100-yard mark since Week 2. Allen investors were no doubt pleased with the result, though it should be noted that slot receivers have been beating up the Eagles all year. Allen will try to keep the momentum rolling this week against the Vikings, and he gets a juicy individual matchup against Vikings slot corner Mackensie Alexander, who currently grades out 112th among the 117 cornerbacks PFF has graded. Allen profiles as a mid-range WR2. He has some appeal at $7,000 on DraftKings, particularly in cash games.
Mike Williams: Big Mike’s slump continued with another two-catch game – his third in a row – against the Eagles in Week 9. Strangely, Williams has also seen exactly five targets in three consecutive games. He’s averaged just 34.7 receiving yards over that barren, touchdown-less stretch. Williams had at least seven catches in four of his first five games, and it’s possible his downturn is connected to a knee injury that first arose in Week 5. Williams is just a midrange WR2 this week against the Vikings and not very appealing at a cost of $6,600 on DraftKings.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin: Conklin had had seven targets and five receptions in each of his last two games. The product of Central Michigan University has scored just one touchdown this season, but he’s averaging 5.5 targets and 4.0 catches a game. That sort of reliable but unspectacular production makes him a midrange TE2.
Jared Cook: Like his counterpart in this week’s Vikings-Chargers game, Tyler Conklin, Cook has been providing steady but unspectacular production all season, with 27-308-2 on 42 targets. He’s a midrange TE2 this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed just 5.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 24.75, Seahawks 21.75
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: Wilson is set to return this week after missing three games with a gruesome injury to the middle finger of his throwing hand. In the four full games he played before sustaining the finger injury in Week 5, Wilson was the QB10 in fantasy scoring even though he averaged just 27.3 pass attempts in those games. This weekend, Wilson returns to the state where he finished his college career, Wisconsin, to take on the Packers and their rapidly improving pass defense. Green Bay held Patrick Mahomes to 166 passing yards, one touchdown and 4.5 yards per pass attempt in Week 9 after harassing Kyler Murray into a 67.0 passer rating, his lowest of the season by far, in Week 8. I’m conservatively ranking Wilson QB11 this week, and I think there’s a pretty wide range of possible outcomes for him this week.
Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love: Rodgers missed Week 9 after contracting COVID-19, and he’s eligible to return to the team on Saturday if he tests negative. Let’s skip the controversy over Rodgers’ non-vaccination and subsequent run-in with cancel culture. The Packers’ quarterback has thrown multiple TD passes in every game this season since his Week 1 debacle against the Saints, and he’s totaled 19 touchdowns (17 passes, two runs) over his last seven games. Rodgers is the QB12 in fantasy points per game, and he’s the QB9 this week against a Seahawks pass defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. I said we’d skip the part about the attempt to cancel Rodgers, but perhaps we shouldn’t discount the possibility that an angry Rodgers goes nuclear at Lambeau Field on Sunday. I’ll include Rodgers in at least one DraftKings lineup at $7,100 just in case it happens.
Running Backs
Alex Collins: Chris Carson was designated to return to practice after missing four games, but he won’t play against the Packers this week. Collins had had 61-227-1 rushing and 4-31-0 receiving in the four games Carson has missed, ranking RB21 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR) over that stretch. He’s the RB25 this week.
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: Jones ranks RB13 in fantasy points per game among running backs who’ve played at least five games. He’s still an explosive back whose dual run-catch production adds to his fantasy appeal, but Jones has averaged just 12.5 carries a game since Week 4, as Dillon has carved out an increasingly larger role. Jones lands at RB7 in the rankings this week against a Seattle defense that’s giving up 23.3 fantasy points per game to running backs, the third-highest total in the league. Dillon has scored only one touchdown this season, and the Packers are still using Jones as their goal-line back. The good news is that Dillon is averaging 68.5 yards per game and has been surprisingly good as a pass-catcher, hauling in 14 of 16 targets on the year for 134 yards and his lone TD. He’s a high-end RB3.
Wide Receivers
D.K. Metcalf: In the three games that Russell Wilson missed with a finger injury, Metcalf continued to produce, catching 14-197-3 on 26 targets with Geno Smith as his quarterback. But Metcalf stakeholders no doubt feel much better about having Wilson back at the controls of the Seattle offense. Metcalf faces a Green Bay defense that’s giving up 18.0 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the third-lowest total in the league. Metcalf is a high-end WR2, and his $6,800 price tag on DraftKings makes him a solid value.
Tyler Lockett: Lockett is having another roller-coaster year. After opening the season with 12-278-3 in his first two games, he was held to 57 or fewer receiving yards in his next five. Then he went off again in Seattle’s most recent game, catching 12-142-0 with Geno Smith as his QB in a Week 8 win over the Jaguars. The return of Russell Wilson this week undoubtedly boosts Lockett’s value, but can he find any consistency? He’s a midrange WR2 against the Packers.
Davante Adams: With Jordan Love quarterbacking the Packers in Week 9, Adams caught 6 of 14 targets for 42 yards, so he’ll no doubt be pleased about the expected return of Aaron Rodgers. Adams ranks WR2 this week behind only Cooper Kupp and is a worthwhile buy on DraftKings at $7,900.
Randall Cobb: Over his last five games, Cobb has 16-186-4 on 23 targets. There just isn’t enough bankable target volume here to trust Cobb in fantasy, and the return of Marquez Valdes-Scantling from a hamstring injury further threatens Cobb’s target load. Cobb lands at WR58 in this week’s rankings.
Allen Lazard: Lazard has a TD catch in three consecutive games, but he’s averaging just 2.8 targets per game for the year. Don’t chase touchdowns. Lazard is merely a low-end WR5 this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: MVS returned from a hamstring injury in Week 9 but was held to 2-19-0 on two targets with Jordan Love at quarterback for the Packers. With Aaron Rodgers expected to return from a one-game COVID-19 absence, Valdes-Scantling has a chance for some higher-value targets. MVS is the WR57 this week, and he’s an intriguing option in DraftKings GPPs because of his cheap $3,500 price tag and his big-play potential.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett: In six games this season, Everett has 14-135-1 on 17 targets. Maybe he’ll come to life now that QB Russell Wilson is back, but we need a “show me” game from Everett before we trust him in our lineups.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Broncos -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Broncos 24, Eagles 21
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts: As Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy points out, from Weeks 6-9 no team has been more run-heavy in neutral game situations than the Eagles. After experimenting with Hurts as a pass-heavy quarterback earlier this fall, the offense has decided to go full-blown #establishtherun. It’s tough to argue with the decision considering Hurts ranks 29th out of 31 qualified QBs in completion percentage over expectation. Additionally, Philadelphia has been far more competitive with the ground-based attack as of late. For the season Denver’s defense ranks 17th in EPA per pay on dropbacks and 22nd in EPA per play on rushes. The unit has been leakier on the ground as of late, coming in at 26th from Weeks 6-9. Expect the Eagles to once again lean on the run, rendering Hurts a low-end QB1 with rushing upside.
Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy Two Gloves was fantastic in Sunday’s upset over the Cowboys, finishing seventh in EPA per play and first in CPOE among Week 9 quarterbacks. It was a needed bounce back after a month’s worth of mediocrity. It’s pretty safe to say we know who Bridgewater is at this point in his career. He isn’t necessarily efficient, but he’s accurate. Over their past four games the Eagles are allowing an 83% completion rate. This isn’t a matchup to fear, which makes Bridgewater a safe QB2 play in fantasy.
Running Backs
Jordan Howard: The veteran has taken over short-down-and-distance work in Philadelphia, totaling 29 carries and three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks. Incredibly, these are the only games Howard has been active for this season. He’s a TD-dependent RB3 while Miles Sanders (ankle) is on IR. There’s a real chance he’ll receive run even when Sanders returns, however.
Boston Scott: Howard became the lead option in Week 9 (handling 52% of the rushing attempts compared to 30% for Scott), but both backs are being utilized in the run-heavy Philadelphia offense. Howard is the preferred Week 10 fantasy start based on last Sunday’s usage, but Scott will remain involved if the Eagles are able to take control of this game.
Kenneth Gainwell: Meanwhile, the 22-year-old rookie was given just two carries against the Chargers in Week 9. He wound up scoring, but the utilization was terrible. He’s only worth rostering in deeper PPR formats until we see more.
Melvin Gordon: We are now halfway through the season and, despite Javonte-truthers loudest cries, Gordon has yet to go away. And from a real-life football perspective, why would the Broncos phase him out now? Entering Week 10 Gordon ranks 15th in PFF’s rushing grade and his 70-yard rushing TD from Week 1 was the ninth fastest ball carrier speed in the league this year, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Philadelphia’s defense ranks 24th in both EPA per dropback and EPA per rush. PFF ranks their run defense 25th in the league and their coverage 22nd. It’s a pretty uninspiring unit. Expect the Broncos to try and #establishit.
Javonte Williams: Ground game success would also be good news for the rookie. The Broncos continue to use their backfield in a near 50/50 split, with a slight lean towards Gordon as the 1A. Williams ranks second in PFF’s elusive rating and seventh in NGS’ success rate. He has been a tackle-breaking machine in addition to being a yards-after-contact machine. His future is bright. Until (unless) Gordon gets phased out, however, he’s just a weekly FLEX option.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith: The rookie popped up for arguably the best game of his career in Week 9 despite facing a defense designed to take away big plays in the passing game. Smith caught 5-of-6 targets for 116 yards and a score, finding the end zone for the first time since Week 1. This is where we’re at with Smith. He’s the alpha wideout on a run-heavy offense playing alongside a quarterback with questionable accuracy. He’s a weekly boom/bust WR3 for Week 10 and moving forward.
Jalen Reagor: Since Hurts can barely support Smith in the passing game, there is just no room for Reagor to have a box score impact as well. Over the past two weeks, he has caught two passes for -6 yards. You’re reading that correctly. Leave him on waivers.
Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy’s box score production has been a bit quiet since returning. In Weeks 8-9 he has hauled in 10-of-12 targets for 109 scoreless yards. Denver is easing him in, but it’s the underlying numbers that should have fantasy managers excited. Jeudy has seen a target on 25% of his routes this year. Compare that to 19.8% for Sutton and 15% for Patrick. As we mentioned previously, Philadelphia’s defense is allowing an 83% completion rate over their past four games. This should be pitch-and-catch for Bridgewater and Jeudy. It could be your final chance to buy low on the sophomore wideout.
Courtland Sutton: If the past couple of weeks are any indication, Sutton’s fantasy stock is about to take a big hit. While the preseason health concerns are fully behind us (he’s at a 90% route rate for the year), Sutton’s targets have disappeared since Jeudy came back (16% and 8% shares the past two weeks). The saving grace could be his 16.6 season-long ADOT, which means that he’s always a big play or two away from salvaging his fantasy week. Whereas Sutton was valued as a rock-solid WR2 back in September-October, he should now be considered more of a WR3.
Tim Patrick: Patrick had a nice game in Week 5, hauling in several big third-down receptions en route to the upset win. However, there just isn’t enough pass-game work to make him a consistent start-worthy fantasy option. Patrick’s value increases in deeper PPR formats where his 4-6 target floor is worth more.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert: His utilization has skyrocketed since the Zach Ertz trade. From Weeks 7-9 Goedert has run a route on at least 83% of dropbacks in each contest. Again, this is a run-heavy offense, so target expectation should be tempered most weeks. However, Goedert can be expected to pop up for big games any time the Eagles are trailing and forced to throw.
Noah Fant: Fant was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday, so he’ll return to low-end TE1 status against Philadelphia. That means Albert Okwuegbunam won’t be in play for DFS purposes again this week. Since the Broncos prefer to run the ball, Fant’s upside is always higher in games where they fall behind. Week 10 doesn’t set up as one of those contests.
